Do you use overseas projections in that thread? That's what I'm lamenting.
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Wish (Walt Disney Animation - November 2023)
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It’s funny how he has this superhuman talent to look at everything and actually show how things are…
Like how little mermaid took a $80,000,000 minimum hit of red ink…
Poor Hallee
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
You dismiss the domestic opening week projections as unreliable. I look forward to your addressing them after the actual domestic opening weekend numbers come in.
Can you point us to some overseas projections sites or sources that you seem to imply he’s intentionally ignoring?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I seem to remember alot of scoffing at declaring TLM “dead” in July…because it was “too soon” due to international
It made about $20 total after that point…you silly Disney doubters
The reality is that all the BO is made up front…which is ironic because there was this dude who totally praised that concept with awful Star Wars sequels when they flatlined at 3 weeks. Total halt.
So ok then…but now it’s all “you can’t say that” when the bloom has fallen off the Bobs Rose.
Funny how that works?
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Remember when we were scolded for suggesting all indications (financial or otherwise) were that the Galactic Starcruiser was failing and wouldn’t last long? Now we know it never turned a profit and had “sailings” as low as 20% occupancy. However, no acknowledgement or mea culpa he had it wrong.I seem to remember alot of scoffing at declaring TLM “dead” in July…because it was “too soon” due to international
It made about $20 total after that point…you silly Disney doubters
The reality is that all the BO is made up front…which is ironic because there was this dude who totally praised that concept with awful Star Wars sequels when they flatlined at 3 weeks. Total halt.
So ok then…but now it’s all “you can’t say that” when the bloom has fallen off the Bobs Rose.
Funny how that works?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
TP2000
Well-Known Member
So far, I think we've only used Box Office Pro stats. I wasn't the one to start mentioning that a few weeks ago, I forget who it was, but I had no idea Box Office Pro existed until recently. It's really interesting forward-looking projections they use.
But you are correct, as far as I know or can see without buying an industry subscription, Box Office Pro is using domestic figures in their projection. It's not too hard to extrapolate how those films will do overseas from that, but it's an imperfect science as any predictions are.
Do you have a source for overseas box office projections you can share with us? Does that product exist?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Considering that Disney movies tend to pull a heavier drawn of domestic than most other studios…I’m not really sure why it matters?
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I see you are double counting D+ loses again. I also take it Moana lost money when it was licensed to Netflix since that too was losing money at the time?
But No, I was actually referencing the 50 billion dollars in retail sales the Princess Brand has done. Usually does somewhere between 1.5-4 billion annually.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
No, just counting it the once. Disney+ has lost over $11 Billion since it started selling its product in 2019.
An $11 Billion loss to the company is certainly enough, and there's no need to count that type of loss twice.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
So why does it lose money? Because according to you Moana is free.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Because it costs Disney more money to deliver the product to customers homes than what those customers are paying for it.
Disney+ loses Billions per year for the company. It has never generated a profit. It's a money pit.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Incorrect, content delivery is not the primary cost of the service. The primary cost of the service is paying for and buying content. That content is still paid regardless of how much the service itself loses.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Disney+ has lost over $11 Billion since it began in 2019. In the last fiscal quarter it lost $512 Million.
Losses are not profits. And the revenues Disney receives from Disney+ customers have not yet generated a profit. The product of Disney+ costs more to create and distribute to customers than the money its customers pay for that product. It's that simple.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
You have said the same thing over and over again. Yes D+ is not currently profitable. It doesn’t help the company as a whole. That’s not what we are talking about.
So where does the money go TP? Because you want to assure me it isn’t to Moana or the Studios. Where do they spend the money?
You are continuing to double count the loses by ignoring the 4 billion dollars a quarter D+ shunts to the Studios.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
If D+ didn't have to pay for content it would have made Billions in profit already. Its that simple....
Wow, double context fail.
My original post for this sub-thread lamented that:
1. When considering whether a movie is profitable or not in its theatrical window, we use the global Box Office.
2. However, for now, all the projections are about the domestic Box Office, not the global Box Office.
Will the film have twice as much overseas Box Office as domestic or half as much? We don't know. And that's not being 'projected.' This makes the Domestic Box Office projections pretty useless as an indicator of overall profitability, which is based on global intake.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
And yet, the domestic box office is a fairly good indicator for how well the movie will do overseas. Plus or minus 20%.
Wish is currently projected to have a domestic opening weekend of $45 to $65 Million. With a total box office projection for $185 to $289 Million domestically.
Wish had a production budget of $200 Million, and a likely marketing budget of $100 Million. It needs roughly $600 Million globally to break even. So if it makes $289 domestically, it needs $311 globally. Or worst case, if it only makes $185 domestically, it would need $415 globally to break even.
Based on current box office projections, Wish has an uphill battle to break even at the global box office right now.
Long Range Box Office Forecast: Disney's WISH and Ridley Scott's NAPOLEON
This year's Thanksgiving weekend could be a welcome feast for exhibition after a string of modest-to-underperforming openers during the holiday corridor in recent post-pandemic years.
www.boxofficepro.com
I think it's close to the core of Disney's recent woes is that they greenlit/started making a fair deal of these recent (and upcoming) titles before the pandemic and the upheavals to the international box office, at a point when stuff like the Beauty and the Beast remake was making money hand over fist and the MCU crowd came out for every title, and thus $200 million+ budgets didn't seem out of proportion. Other studios have seen their own disappointments since then for the same reasons (most obviously WB), but because Disney no longer makes low or mid-budget productions (except for Disney Plus, which of course isn't working out for them) they have to rely a lot more on a few eggs in one basket. I do have hopes that the company will weather this bad year and rethink their strategies going forward, but who knows?
I think the pandemic theatrical slowdown and the brief streaming boom that followed made Disney overconfident in D+'s possibilities, but also, they were overconfident in their own brands, figuring that if people were coming out for stuff like The Rise of Skywalker and Frozen II why wouldn't they come out for Eternals and Lightyear? But I think blind loyalty to franchises and studios snapped for a lot of moviegoers with the lack of forward momentum that the theatrical slowdown induced. Like people were looking back on turning out for something like The Lion King remake with regret and not wanting to make the same mistakes again.
Encanto and Elemental are genuinely loved films by their fans, but both were hamstrung financially by Disney's mistakes in marketing and distribution. With Wish, it took longer than it probably should have but they've certainly been going to town on promotional efforts in a way I can't recall for one of their (or poor Pixar's) animated films since Frozen II, which was the last pre-pandemic title (depending on how one looks at Onward). But so far, I don't think there's much adult enthusiasm for it except from the Disney Adult crowd; the song previews haven't yet yielded up a viral hit like "We Don't Talk About Bruno", the animation style's seen more criticism/apology than praise, and it just doesn't seem to have its own identity as a story.
If the first weekend underwhelms as predicted, it will look bad; it's only opening directly against Napoleon, a film with a completely different target market, though if Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes or Trolls Band Together breaks out that could make a difference. IF the word of mouth from kids and especially adults is good - and at this point that's a big if, there's really no advance buzz from anyone who's seen the whole movie as yet, just bits and pieces of the opening half-hour - aside from Beyonce's concert movie it has NO wide release competition AT ALL until Wonka on December 15 and could have extremely strong holds the way Elemental did. But that still wouldn't be enough against the budget. Basically, this movie needs to grow its audience the way Beauty and the Beast did in 1991 (when it opened in third place but ran and ran and ran), if that's even possible now...and I think that will only happen if it's Beauty and the Beast good.
I think the pandemic theatrical slowdown and the brief streaming boom that followed made Disney overconfident in D+'s possibilities, but also, they were overconfident in their own brands, figuring that if people were coming out for stuff like The Rise of Skywalker and Frozen II why wouldn't they come out for Eternals and Lightyear? But I think blind loyalty to franchises and studios snapped for a lot of moviegoers with the lack of forward momentum that the theatrical slowdown induced. Like people were looking back on turning out for something like The Lion King remake with regret and not wanting to make the same mistakes again.
Encanto and Elemental are genuinely loved films by their fans, but both were hamstrung financially by Disney's mistakes in marketing and distribution. With Wish, it took longer than it probably should have but they've certainly been going to town on promotional efforts in a way I can't recall for one of their (or poor Pixar's) animated films since Frozen II, which was the last pre-pandemic title (depending on how one looks at Onward). But so far, I don't think there's much adult enthusiasm for it except from the Disney Adult crowd; the song previews haven't yet yielded up a viral hit like "We Don't Talk About Bruno", the animation style's seen more criticism/apology than praise, and it just doesn't seem to have its own identity as a story.
If the first weekend underwhelms as predicted, it will look bad; it's only opening directly against Napoleon, a film with a completely different target market, though if Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes or Trolls Band Together breaks out that could make a difference. IF the word of mouth from kids and especially adults is good - and at this point that's a big if, there's really no advance buzz from anyone who's seen the whole movie as yet, just bits and pieces of the opening half-hour - aside from Beyonce's concert movie it has NO wide release competition AT ALL until Wonka on December 15 and could have extremely strong holds the way Elemental did. But that still wouldn't be enough against the budget. Basically, this movie needs to grow its audience the way Beauty and the Beast did in 1991 (when it opened in third place but ran and ran and ran), if that's even possible now...and I think that will only happen if it's Beauty and the Beast good.
