Wish (Walt Disney Animation - November 2023)

[Stitch's Grandfather]

That villain song is awful. Really really bad.

Kids are extremely excited to see this, though. They've done a much better job of marketing this movie and my kids will probably insist on going opening weekend. I imagine lots of families will be in the same boat. I expect Wish to outperform expectations.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That villain song is awful. Really really bad.

Kids are extremely excited to see this, though. They've done a much better job of marketing this movie and my kids will probably insist on going opening weekend. I imagine lots of families will be in the same boat. I expect Wish to outperform expectations.

Their marketing has been really bad…so they need to up their game.

Outperforming is what they desperately need. This year has been a box office disaster and they have really nothing coming the next few years

And the strikes make that worse

 

[Stitch's Grandfather]

Good point on the strike. So Disney is going "all out" on the marketing here so they have some momentum heading into the lull from the strike.

I've been down on Disney, but I think this release will be big. My kids literally ask every other day about it.

 

[TsWade2]

Now now, let’s not get all fear mongering about it! When Wish gets the great word of mouth, it’ll be a box office success. We’ll see how it goes.

Here’s the proof: https://x.com/hollywoodhandle/status/1717701670757408776?s=61&t=z0DUybrXydmOyoZebVYIwA

 

[Tha Realest]

Now now, let’s not get all fear mongering about it! When Wish gets the great word of mouth, it’ll be a box office success. We’ll see how it goes.

Here’s the proof: https://x.com/hollywoodhandle/status/1717701670757408776?s=61&t=z0DUybrXydmOyoZebVYIwA

If it has good word of mouth it can do well. A low opening weekend number will be tough but not impossible to overcome.

It does have some family competition over the holidays, and Napoleon and Beyonce have claimed the IMAX screens over that time too (though it should still get some larger screen and 3D premium screens for a week or two)

 

[TsWade2]

If it has good word of mouth it can do well. A low opening weekend number will be tough but not impossible to overcome.

It does have some family competition over the holidays, and Napoleon and Beyonce have claimed the IMAX screens over that time too (though it should still get some larger screen and 3D premium screens for a week or two)

Just to let you know, there will be a an early showing of Wish in selected theaters on November 18. So I think Disney has confidence with Wish than they did with Strange World.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

In a new featurette, hear the song This Is The Thanks I Get performed by Chris Pine as King Magnifico from Disney’s Wish.

Spoiler: I don't know if this is considered spoiler or not so just being courteous

One comment I will make is Chris Pine's voice doesn't come across as villainous. However the lyrics suggest he doesn't think he's a "villain" so it may play out perfectly.

 

[Dranth]

Their marketing has been really bad…so they need to up their game.

Outperforming is what they desperately need. This year has been a box office disaster and they have really nothing coming the next few years

And the strikes make that worse

Their marketing hasn't been great for a bit now which stinks because they really haven't been putting out many bad movies. Nearly all the Disney movies I have seen over the last year were enjoyable and would have really benefited from some good marketing.

Who knows, maybe the strikes will help them. It gives everyone a natural break from the overtly crowded release schedule of the past and gives them time to address those out-of-control budgets.

 

[TsWade2]

Their marketing hasn't been great for a bit now which stinks because they really haven't been putting out many bad movies. Nearly all the Disney movies I have seen over the last year were enjoyable and would have really benefited from some good marketing.

Who knows, maybe the strikes will help them. It gives everyone a natural break from the overtly crowded release schedule of the past and gives them time to address those out-of-control budgets.

Once again: Stop this fear mongering this minute!

 

[Disney Analyst]

And as a reminder:

Disney’s Frozen, directed by Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee, smashed every possible box office record for a Disney film this weekend, grossing $67.4 million over the 3-day weekend, and $93.9M over the five-day holiday period. The previous highest opening for a Disney film was last year’s Wreck-It Ralph, which opened with $49M. In 2010, Tangled opened in the same Thanksgiving holiday timeframe with a $48.8M weekend, and $68.7M five-day holiday. With Frozen’s breathtaking numbers, it’s hardly worth mentioning that Frozen had to settle for second place at the box office, behind the Hunger Games adaptation Catching Fire.

"Frozen" Smashes Disney Animation Opening Weekend Records

Disney's "Frozen," directed by Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee, smashed every possible box office record for a Disney film this weekend, and earned an estimated $66.7 million over the 3-day, and $93M over the five-day holiday period.

www.cartoonbrew.com

 

[TsWade2]

And as a reminder:

"Frozen" Smashes Disney Animation Opening Weekend Records

Disney's "Frozen," directed by Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee, smashed every possible box office record for a Disney film this weekend, and earned an estimated $66.7 million over the 3-day, and $93M over the five-day holiday period.

www.cartoonbrew.com

 

[BrianLo]

The internal expectation for this is most assuredly not a billion box office dollars. Someone is an idiot if the only benchmark of success on WDAS films is Frozen.

They certainly want Tangled as a worse case scenario theatrically, but Moana is the gold standard. Feel free to adjust Tangled's budget and gawk. The comps for this one are decidedly bottom end Tangled, slightly above Princess and the Frog (much lower budget so take that into account), Moderately Moana and top end big success Frozen 1.

It's a Princess brands deposit film and if any kids start streaming this repetitively Disney is dancing another jig. How many literal billions of dollars (with a B and an S ) has Moana made beyond its original run?

 

[TP2000]

Once again: Stop this fear mongering this minute!

I absolutely love that Strange World is being used as a box office benchmark here. Aim high!

Encanto, in late 2021 when people returning to theaters were still being publicly shamed for doing just that, only had an opening weekend of $27 Million and ended up losing $117 Million for Disney. And Strange World was indeed strange, and was one of Disney's biggest box office failures of the past 20 years. It lost $164 Million.

Encanto: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic B.O. $58, Overseas B.O. $54 = $117 Million Loss
Strange World: Production $135, Marketing $65, Domestic B.O. $23, Overseas B.O. $13 = $164 Million Loss

If I were an executive in Disney's PR department, I would be cringing at someone claiming success by having Wish pre-sales tracking at a higher rate than Encanto and Strange World. Why not also throw in The Black Hole while you're at it?

 

[TP2000]

How many literal billions of dollars (with a B and an S ) has Moana made beyond its original run?

Off of what? DVD sales? Disney+ has lost $11 Billion since 2019, so we can't count Disney+ for any profit for anything.

Adjusted for inflation, Moana had a production budget of $182 Million and made $94 Million at the box office.

Moana: Production $182, Marketing $90, Domestic B.O. $181, Overseas B.O. $185 = $94 Million Profit

Moana's DVD sales were $147 Million combined DVD/BluRay. I have absolutely no idea how much profit a studio makes off of selling a DVD set at Target, but let's pretend it's a 50% cut of the profits? (I'd love it if someone could swoop in and correct that if it's wrong, with some facts on how much studios used to make off DVD sales when that was still a thing). That would give Disney a $74 Million profit off of the DVD/BluRay sales for Moana of the past seven years.

So until we have other info, it looks like Moana made $168 Million combined between theater box office and DVD sales.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I hate how all these projections don't include the international market.

When we look to see if a film is "profitable" or not (in the theatrcial window), we look at global totals, not domestic.

 

[Disney Irish]

I absolutely love that Strange World is being used as a box office benchmark here. Aim high!

Encanto, in late 2021 when people returning to theaters were still being publicly shamed for doing just that, only had an opening weekend of $27 Million and ended up losing $117 Million for Disney. And Strange World was indeed strange, and was one of Disney's biggest box office failures of the past 20 years. It lost $164 Million.

Encanto: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic B.O. $58, Overseas B.O. $54 = $117 Million Loss
Strange World: Production $135, Marketing $65, Domestic B.O. $23, Overseas B.O. $13 = $164 Million Loss

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If I were an executive in Disney's PR department, I would be cringing at someone claiming success by having Wish pre-sales tracking at a higher rate than Encanto and Strange World. Why not also throw in The Black Hole while you're at it?

They are using both those movies as they are the post-pandemic releases. They aren’t going to use comps for pre-pandemic releases, but I think you know this.

 

[TP2000]

I hate how all these projections don't include the international market.

When we look to see if a film is "profitable" or not (in the theatrcial window), we look at global totals, not domestic.

Don't worry. Over in the Box Office thread, we always include the overseas market and use the total global box office figures.

So far this year, Disney's collection of flagship and niche movie studios has lost about $800 Million at the global box office.

 

[TP2000]

They are using both those movies as they are the post-pandemic releases. They aren’t going to use comps for pre-pandemic releases, but I think you know this.

If you use pre-pandemic movies as comps, the box office projections for Wish would be catastrophically bad.

Especially considering Wish had a giant $200 Million production budget.

But if you compare it to Strange World... hey, it's doing kind of good! If you squint. And have had a few drinks.

 

[Disney Irish]

If you use pre-pandemic movies as comps, the box office projections for Wish would be catastrophically bad.

Especially considering Wish had a giant $200 Million production budget.

But if you compare it to Strange World... hey, it's doing kind of good! If you squint. And have had a few drinks.

We’re in a post-pandemic box office, it should be a no brainer on why they would use comps only from post-pandemic releases.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Their marketing hasn't been great for a bit now which stinks because they really haven't been putting out many bad movies. Nearly all the Disney movies I have seen over the last year were enjoyable and would have really benefited from some good marketing.

Who knows, maybe the strikes will help them. It gives everyone a natural break from the overtly crowded release schedule of the past and gives them time to address those out-of-control budgets.

I think what all Disney studios have been doing can be described as “formulaic”…if that’s a word?

Even Pixar - which was ingenious for 15 with its takes on things - is just too predictable.

And that’s why they are lagging