Beyond the Disney fandom, I don't think Wish has stirred up strong emotions with moviegoers one way or another yet. I think part of that is because the teaser was so vague that it might as well have been a commercial for Disney as a brand.
Now Disney remains a powerful family brand - streamers like Netflix, Max, etc. have plenty of kiddie shows and movies of their own, but next to no one subscribes to those services specifically for family entertainment. At this point family entertainment is all that Disney does, compared to when they had subsidiary companies like Touchstone, and it is an easy go to for many people. But at the same time I think there is growing cynicism about Disney as a corporation, and the main thing that helps keep it going is that there is no comparable alternative in terms of reach, scope, and quality. WB (Cartoon Network, Looney Tunes, etc.) is too diffuse with its family properties and growing increasingly unambitious, Nickelodeon's output doesn't cross over to the adult crowd the way the better Disney work does, Dreamworks has proven hit and miss, Illumination has found a niche in lighthearted high-concept fare but is not really taken seriously.
Wish's prospects are interesting. This year it's become clear that there is a large market for PG (if never G anymore) family entertainment -- one that isn't being fully satisfied because Disney, among other companies, leaned too hard into pushing PG-13 stuff like the MCU as "fun for all ages" when it really isn't (too violent, too complicated, etc.). The Super Mario Bros. Movie thrived for being the first PG-rated wide release since last Christmas. Of the PG titles we've seen since then, the Little Mermaid remake did okay (not as well as Aladdin or Lion King's 2.0s, but the international market just isn't the same post-pandemic and Ukraine war), Elemental held on far better than expected given Disney's clumsy marketing, and Across the Spider-Verse and TMNT: Mutant Mayhem caught on too, the former more obviously than the other. (Remember, prior to Barbieheimer Spider-Verse was shaping up to be THE summer blockbuster.) Ruby Gillman bombed hard but that was mostly down to Universal/Dreamworks' indifference. And now this weekend, it looks like the Paw Patrol sequel will hit number one at the box office, and with a modest budget will prove quite profitable for Paramount/Nickelodeon much sooner than most of those other titles.
There are no more family titles until Trolls: Band Together and Wish open within a week of each other in November (yes, The Marvels will certainly be pushed to the younger end of the spectrum but...). Because Trolls 3 is opening the same day as Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes I don't think even Universal thinks it's going to hit number one, or take a huge bite out of Wish's prospects, though it could do well regardless.
Wish has no direct competition beyond Trolls 3; the only other wide release that day is Napoleon. And after it opens, it's several weeks until the next holiday family movies (Wonka and Migration). The main obstacle I think Wish is facing is that so far it looks like "generic Disney Princess movie" to the masses, especially with its almost no-name voice cast. Remember, there hasn't been a breakout in-house Disney animated feature theatrically since Frozen II, with a lot of people waiting on streaming instead. Wish doesn't have a streaming date announced but might people choose to wait if nothing about it screams "unique event"? Yes, it's the centennial movie, but it doesn't feel like one. It doesn't even feel like an event the way, say, the original Beauty and the Beast did in 1991. Even the idea that this is the origin of the wishing star hasn't been brought up in the advertising thus far.
If Wish isn't a huge audience and critical smash out of the gate (Disney hasn't had an in-house animation hit with critics since...what, Zootopia or Moana? Reception for their subsequent films has felt "fine" at best), it will probably get by just for a lack of other options for a few weeks - it won't be Strange World 2.0 - but with that in mind I would not be surprised if Wonka and Migration end up doing better business over the holidays. WB is going to push Wonka hard (though I think it will end up being their equivalent to Mary Poppins Returns' reception at best unless it's truly great) and Illumination's high-concept farces play well to little kids especially.
