Yep, that's it I believe. They don't release the info until they are ready to give those types of discounts based upon what the market is doing.
And I've seen different discounts for different resorts in the past too. So if AKL is heavily booked already, they may not be so inclined to give a big discount on that resort, but we may see a large one on other resorts that have not been getting many pre-booking for that season.
For instance (this is copied for MouseSavers.com) this is what is currently out for AP discounts:
Annual Passholder rates are available for 4/21/02-9/30/02. The discount is 30% off regular rack rates at all Disney resorts (subject to availability). Value Season kicks in on 8/25/02 (7/4/02 for certain Deluxe resorts), so rack rates drop quite a bit -- and the 30% discount still applies. Approximate reported rates (rounded upward to the nearest dollar):
All Stars - $70 standard / $76 preferred ($54 standard 8/25/02-9/30/02)
Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs or Port Orleans) - $108 standard ($93 standard 8/25/02-9/30/02)
Wilderness Lodge - $161 standard / $171 woods view / $196 courtyard view / $291 1 bdrm villa ($136 standard/$150 woods view / $172 courtyard view 8/25/02-9/30/02)
Animal Kingdom Lodge - $168 standard / $214 savannah view / $329 concierge ($143 standard / $189 savannah view 8/25/02-9/30/02)
Contemporary - $200 garden view / $252 tower / $298 tower club ($186 garden view 7/4/02-9/30/02)
Polynesian - $234 garden view / $294 lagoon view ($210 garden view / $263 lagoon view 7/4/02-9/30/02)
Beach Club/Yacht Club - $224 standard / $329 concierge ($202 standard 7/4/02-9/30/02)
Boardwalk - $224 standard ($202 standard 7/4/02-9/30/02)
Grand Floridian - $259 garden view ($231 garden view 7/4/02-9/30/02)
Notice that they do give them, but certain resorts dates change.
They also limit the amount of rooms that these discounts are available on. Lets say AKL has 58 Deluxe rooms. And the AP discount is 30% . They may only let 20 rooms go for this discount. So if your not one of those 20 people, they may not be able to offer you the rate.
I belive it's a similar system to what the airlines do. I'm using my US Air miles to fly free, and they only have like 10 seats on a plane available to these types of tickets. We could get on the plane and find out there are still 100 open, unsold seats, but only a maximum of 10 seats could have been for frequent flyer miles travellers.
I actually ran into this problem, in that the only open flight back was a 7AM flight, I usally like to fly home late on the last day to enjoy the parks a bit more, but I just couldn't get any seats on any other flights that day using my miles. Kinda sucks.
