What's Still On and What's Now Off

[ZoneOfTheEnder]

I think the safest way to reopen before the disease is completely eradicated would be to test every guest before entry (hotels, parks, and Springs). Guests who test positive or refuse to test would be turned away. Of course, Disney would need a less invasive test such as a cheek swab instead of the one that goes into your brain. Has this been developed yet?

Seriously? Ta Ta Forever
Are you really Bob Chapek?
The delay, and shuttering of planned rides is understandable but leaving EPCOT in disarray and not finishing the Star Wars Hotel is belong understanding as is closing Disney Springs to guests that just want to go out to eat.
Overall if there is limited activities and attendance controls in the Theme Parks without an attraction Hotel like the Star Wars hotel and access to Disney Springs this is further economic suicide. Great plan Bob.

 

[marni1971]

Are you really Bob Chapek?

No.

 

[monothingie]

No.

@realBobChapek is much better looking.

 

[ZoneOfTheEnder]

No.

Thank the Mouse . . . But it kind of sounds like the loony toon thinking that is going on.

 

[Disorbust]

So if there was a quick way to test it would be already used.

I work at a huge academic hospital and we have acess to "quick" testing. It is still with the nose/brain swabbing. The test has an hour turn around time however it takes an hour to run and we have 4 machines at this point. So we are requiring everyone who has surgery to test 48 hours prior, if they are unable they get the quick test and have to arrive 4 hours prior to get it.

Unless testing dramatically changes I don't see how guests could be tested. There is no way the resources will be wasted so people can go to vacation at WDW.

 

[techgeek]

So if there was a quick way to test it would be already used.

I work at a huge academic hospital and we have acess to "quick" testing. It is still with the nose/brain swabbing. The test has an hour turn around time however it takes an hour to run and we have 4 machines at this point. So we are requiring everyone who has surgery to test 48 hours prior, if they are unable they get the quick test and have to arrive 4 hours prior to get it.

Unless testing dramatically changes I don't see how guests could be tested. There is no way the resources will be wasted so people can go to vacation at WDW.

I think of all of the 'rapid' tests I've had over the years... they are all still in a clinical environment, are administered by someone with significant training in their administration and interpretation, and definitely are not 'instant'. Even the quickest ones take 5-10 minutes to produce a result. The idea that you can put 50,000 people through even a 'rapid strep test' at the front gate of the Magic Kingdom is a pretty big stretch, even if the kits were available.

 

[ZoneOfTheEnder]

Bankruptcy is kind of a stretch, no?

I can’t answers this because it is both off topic, the possibilities can be seen as political and I have not reached 100 posts so I cannot participate in the Political Social thread.
Hopefully I can say the two parties should negotiate in good faith.

 

[Giss Neric]

I think the safest way to reopen before the disease is completely eradicated would be to test every guest before entry (hotels, parks, and Springs). Guests who test positive or refuse to test would be turned away. Of course, Disney would need a less invasive test such as a cheek swab instead of the one that goes into your brain. Has this been developed yet?

Tests every guests before entry? Where will they wait for the results and how long? No offense Mr Chapek but that will not work especially if most guests are known to be entitled, have short tempers, dumb and stupid. You will get a lot of complaints.

 

[LSLS]

This is likely coming from the fact that none of this is set in stone yet. It is true that the parks will operate more as regional destinations, and it is true that Disney will want to know your recent travels if at all possible (if you're from NY/NJ, your exposure risk is exponentially higher than say TN/AL). But beyond that there's simply too much contamination of information coming out. For example, I believe Reuters asked Disneyland about the Secure Circuit protocol I disclosed; Disney wouldn't comment, which indicates it's likely accurate, but they were asking about the wrong resort (Secure Circuit refers to a plan for reopening MK and the MK resorts). If Disneyland is planning the same, I have no info on it as CA doesn't seem to be anywhere close to allowing such a reopen, nor is DLR designed in a way that is conducive to any form of social distancing.

And that sort of confusion is happening every day on a large scale. I'm not trying to be critical of any individual or news organization, it's just the nature of our current level of uncertainty and work from home orders.

Boy that would be interesting as there are rumors that some hockey teams are telling players they will start team activities May 15.

 

[CastAStone]

The other side of the coin is that he can wait for bankruptcy filing and Disney requests even more bail out money. For Cast Members and Florida Tourism they both need to compromise.

Sigh....

I’m sorry but that’s nonsense.

Their last 10-Q showed them with something like $80 billion dollars in equity they could borrow against before they went chapter 11. Parks and Resorts have ANNUAL expenses of $17 billion (source: 10-K). And that’s when they’re running. Studio $8 billion/year, again, when it’s running.

They could sit quietly for a LONG time before we’re taking bankruptcy.

Lets not get sensationalist.

We do know what to what extent Disney can weather the storm because they are a public company. They can weather it to about $80 billion dollars:


The OP is wrong. The name of the game is staying alive. Disney can find cash by:

• Issue more debt (this alone will be enough for at least 2, probably 3 years, and people will give it to them because in normal times they are a cash printing machine)
• Cut the dividend
• Stopping movie production
• Lay off park staff
• Lay off white collar staff (including simply accelerating their 21CF integration)
• Selling ABC
• Selling various foreign TV holdings
• Selling their stake in A&E Networks
• Selling some (or if things are dire, all) of their stake in ESPN
• Selling non-core IP properties
• Selling various parts of 21CF that are probably worth more to someone else anyway (Searchlight?)
• Etc

They just need to generate enough cash to stay afloat. They are very likely to find people willing to extend any large debts that come due - nothing has changed about the fundamentals of the company or it's ability to make money long term. This isn't a normal situation. And they have EIGHTY BILLION DOLLARS IN UNLEVERAGED ASSETS so again this whole exercise is academic.

Based on their 10-k, a couple years. They have a lot of assets that are not leveraged.

As I’ve pointed out repeatedly in this thread, if you read their 10-K, you’ll realize that Disney could go without revenue for a year or longer without cutting a single expense before they went bankrupt. They are a well oiled cash generating machine, and this virus does not change anything about that in the long run.

They just secured 2 rounds of bonds in a week at rates that are only a couple percent premium to treasury bonds.

Those bonds got the same credit ratings as each of their last several rounds of offerings.

Wall Street even now is valuing the company at $174 BILLION dollars.

So no, Disney is not going bankrupt. That poster has absolutely no clue how corporate finance works.

It’s because they’re insane and paranoid.

Disney just raised $7bn in debt at an average rate of 2% above US treasury bonds. Their market cap is $175,000,000,000. They have $80,000,000,000 more in assets than liabilities. The people who put their money where their mouth is don’t think anything is going to happen to Disney.

for like the 8th time in this thread, even a cursory glance at Disney’s 10-k will reassure anyone who knows how to read one that Disney has zero chance of going into bankruptcy in the next 24 months no matter how bad this gets. Yes they’re issuing debt (the one this week is a credit line, not long term debt, and is probably intended to bridge costs that will have cash realized as soon as this is over, e.g. Soul), but they haven’t even cut their dividend yet. If they were concerned about their ability to have cash on hand they’d have done that immediately.

 

[Touchdown]

Well Disney is definitely messing with Fastpass distribution or they have a lot of resort rooms booked for late June because I had probably my worst go round this morning I failed to get any tier 1 at DHS (day 4) couldn’t get FOP (day 3 and day 5) and had a hard time securing a tier 1 FP for Epcot (day 1, first time ever) I suspect the former. However if that is true then someone went through the effort to adjust Fastpass distribution then they clearly have a plan where FP is still a thing and I don’t think that works with boarding passes for most rides. FYI, no problem at MK and I got the coveted ones.

I suspect they have a lot of contingencies they are working with right now, given our sluggish nationwide testing ability and how SAH orders are being extended, I give my chance of this trip happening at less then 50% but it was a fun exercise this am do the FP run again.

Finally, before anyone goes it must be due to heavy resort booking, I would say that is unlikely as I just checked and every non DVC resort still has base rooms available (and all but 3 DVC resorts had availability.)

 

[skiir97]

Well Disney is definitely messing with Fastpass distribution or they have a lot of resort rooms booked for late June because I had probably my worst go round this morning I failed to get any tier 1 at DHS (day 4) couldn’t get FOP (day 3 and day 5) and had a hard time securing a tier 1 FP for Epcot (day 1, first time ever) I suspect the former. However if that is true then someone went through the effort to adjust Fastpass distribution then they clearly have a plan where FP is still a thing and I don’t think that works with boarding passes for most rides. FYI, no problem at MK and I got the coveted ones.

I suspect they have a lot of contingencies they are working with right now, given our sluggish nationwide testing ability and how SAH orders are being extended, I give my chance of this trip happening at less then 50% but it was a fun exercise this am do the FP run again.

Finally, before anyone goes it must be due to heavy resort booking, I would say that is unlikely as I just checked and every non DVC resort still has base rooms available (and all but 3 DVC resorts had availability.)

There is no chance of a late June opening. With the states starting to reopen, number of cases are going to spike again.

 

[marni1971]

Well Disney is definitely messing with Fastpass distribution or they have a lot of resort rooms booked for late June

To be honest the system is up the spout at the moment. I’m not sure it’s even still being maintained.

 

[rle4lunch]

To be honest the system is up the spout at the moment. I’m not sure it’s even still being maintained.

"up the spout". sounds british. please enlighten us yanks on what that means.

 

[marni1971]

"up to spout". sounds british. please enlighten us yanks on what that means.

Broken.

 

[Touchdown]

To be honest the system is up the spout at the moment. I’m not sure it’s even still being maintained.

I’m now adding up the spout to my vocabulary, we don’t here that term often on this side of the pond.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Broken.

I’m now adding up the spout to my vocabulary, we don’t here that term often on this side of the pond.

As an American who also was an English major...I ADORE hearing/seeing turns of phrases from across the pond.

 

[GladToBeHear]

There is no chance of a late June opening. With the states starting to reopen, number of cases are going to spike again.

Which we've known from the start (regarding the second spike). Remember, the lockdowns were only intended to slow things and buy us some time. Not stop the virus.

 

[wishiwere@wdw]

To be honest the system is up the spout at the moment. I’m not sure it’s even still being maintained.

I believe there is FP tinkering going on due to tier 1 effectively being boarding group only day-of-visit upon reopening. Of course, like everything else right now, this is subject to change and consider this rumor lol

 

[Magic Feather]

An interesting study I found:

New study finds few cases of outdoor transmission of coronavirus in China

A new study of the more than 300 outbreak clusters of COVID-19 in China reveals that the majority of the outbreaks were fueled by indoor transmission of the disease, while outdoor transmi…

thehill.com

I wonder if it would be possible to only open outdoor offerings. The only issue with that, is that there are very few places/attractions that are completely outdoors. MK only has Jungle (and the temple could negate that possibility), Carpets, Liberty Belle, Dumbo, Barnstormer, Speedway, Teacups, and Astro (which the elevator could negate). Admittedly DAK has the best outdoor to total rides ratio thanks to Safari, Kali, Primeval, Tricera, and Everest (which the brief indoor portions could negate). Meanwhile DHS would only have 2/3 of Toy Story Land to work with and Epcot would have nothing. With the possible exception of DAK, I'd unfortunately doubt that "outdoor only" would feasibly be enough to open the park.