What is Next for Disney for 2013-2019?

[Pixiedustmaker]

Since 09 Disney World has opened just one ride. Little mermaid...am I wrong?
Moving a ride(dumbo) and adding a new spinner doesn't count as a new ride. Same ride, different area of park.

And they closed the classic Snow White dark ride.

FLE costed a lot of money, but so far all that has been unveiled in terms of rides is a clone of ride, Mermaid, that has gotten mixed reviews.

FLE has a lot of nice theming in the Belle area, and 7DMT will bring a modest amount of guests, but Al Lutz reports that FLE doesn't have the guest satisfaction ratings TDO wanted, (maybe they wanted Carsland ratings which were higher than for Indy in DLR with something like 97% of guests saying that were interested in returning).

I think that the no-brainer would be to add a $200 million dollar LPS Beauty and the Beast E-Ticket in the expansion pad directly north of Belle's village, AND to plus Mermaid's insides as much as humanly possible, or to in five years change the ride completely, though keeping the Little Mermaid theme.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

I know the parks are American owned. The sad thing is seeing just how differently things are run between the 2 American resorts. At one point and time WDW was the shining beacon and Disneyland the red-headed stepchild...but as a Floridian who has been visiting WDW for nearly 30 years as well as Disneyland the past decade, I can honestly say things have switched. Disneyland does an excellent job now of upkeep and refreshing things, as well as building quality attractions. WDW seems to be starting to get back to proper upkeep, but they have a ways to go.

Disneyland still has a rusted People Mover track, and an Autopia powered by gasoline . . . while years ago they opened an electric Autopia in Hong Kong Disneyland and WDW has maintained their People Mover, though the reasons for why Disneyland's People Mover won't come back have more to do with laws in California . . . I prefer MK's Tomorrowland to Disneyland's, the rest of the lands Disneyland are superior to MK, IMHO

 

[angelmichellexx]

^^^^
In regards to your questions, I think by 2019 we will see a redo/expansion in the MK in either Tomorrowland or Frontierland. That'll be it there though.
As for Epcot, more restaurants added, and MAYBE a redo of Universe of Energy OR Journey Into Imagination - but not both.
Hollywood Studios....some kind of Pixar expansion, even if it just turns out to be a clone of Radiator Springs Racers or Ratatoille.
Animal Kingdom...either Avatarland or a clone of Mystic Manor.

I really don't expect much, but I do expect at least one new thing, be it big or small at each park.

If not, things at WDW are worse than I thought.

What's Mystic Manor? It's been referenced a few times on this forum and I'm confused...

 

[cbconglom]

http://disneyandmore.blogspot.com/2013/02/new-hkdl-mystic-manor-pictures.html?m=1

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Is Disney about to do a huge re-imagining of the parks or are we starting to see the slow decline of the once dominant WDW?
Can't stay on top forever, maybe it's universals time to shine, maybe Disney Land is about to make a huge resurgence.

I think that due to investments at Uni, and other area parks, and due to what look like budget cuts on Mermaid's inside, and a mildly pleasant, but cheap, facade of Dumbo's Circusland, the pie has already been baked: WDW's attendance/income will stay relatively flat, or decline between now and a couple of years after the Harry Potter mine train ride opens.

WDW is partially about setting longterm vacation patterns, a family of seven who visits every 5 to 8 years, and now they're going to add a day or two at Potterland, or Sea World, and WDW will inevitably lose market share. If the number of tourists to Orlandos increases, then you'd think WDWs' bottom-line wouldn't be hit very hard, but all the numbers point to flat or slow growth. It's a bad sign that TDO aimed mostly for little kids with FLE, as if WDW can't attract families with teens anymore, sure, some little kids probably love Mermaid, but even little kids are pretty sophisticated and I know one six year old Mermaid fan who doesn't like Mermaid at DCA . . .

I don't think Avatarland will be a big hit because folks have forgotten about the film, and the land might have been rockwork and landscaping mostly without an eye-popping big attraction. Avatar doesn't resonate with Disney fans, its more like a Uni concept for a land.

I think that lesson of FLE is that great landscaping and rockwork compliments/helps make great rides, but can't be substituted for a lack of quality rides.

 

[Rodan75]

So I agree that WDW needs to get on the ball and start doing enhancements and new rides just for my personal satisfaction. This quiet period right now feels very much that all of the plans that have been rumored are probably being reviewed and trade-offs considered. I wouldn't be surprised if they did get on the ball with something by the end of the year. However...

When you look at all of the work that UO is doing, at what point does it have diminishing returns. Is UO going to get burnt by all of this expansion and only balance out attendance from IOA HP to USF HP. WDW may be watching this to see what TF does and what Gringott's brings before they plan on big Orlando changes.

They could focus on the international properties, the cruise line and adventures in the meantime and get more bang for the investment. Wait out the Universal Orlando onslaught, evaluate and then start building for the end of the decade.

 

[MattM]

personally speaking the payroll tax increase hurt me....plus higher gas means less spending..what did walmart say? curious

Basically that they are seeing in the consumer exactly what you just described.

 

[MattM]

So I agree that WDW needs to get on the ball and start doing enhancements and new rides just for my personal satisfaction. This quiet period right now feels very much that all of the plans that have been rumored are probably being reviewed and trade-offs considered. I wouldn't be surprised if they did get on the ball with something by the end of the year. However...

When you look at all of the work that UO is doing, at what point does it have diminishing returns. Is UO going to get burnt by all of this expansion and only balance out attendance from IOA HP to USF HP. WDW may be watching this to see what TF does and what Gringott's brings before they plan on big Orlando changes.

I don't think anyone at USO is worried about diminishing returns anytime soon...

 

[herc]

There is only one guarantee, ok maybe two: continuing the price increases and more DVC... other than that, well, I wouldn't expect much LOL...

Hate to say it, but DVC needs more inventory. They should have never cancelled the River Country DVC area. It would have been a great area. But then again, they would have to share the Fort Wilderness area and they are not set up like a hotel.
Grand Floridian will be a nice addition and then of course the rumors about the Poly DVC.
I do really think they need to make another standalone DVC down there.

Hey, I was just there and I extended my stay by a day and could not get Boardwalk where I was staying or ANY DVC but Saratoga Springs and they were limited.

 

[Rodan75]

I don't think anyone at USO is worried about diminishing returns anytime soon...

The problem becomes if they think each new ride will continue to increase traffic by an order of magnitude that will justify the investment. Comcast isn't known for investing without solid ROI. The parks are doing better, but will they do 33% better to justify increasing capex by 33%? (33% is an example number can't remember the actual percent that was previously quoted)

 

[Rodan75]

Hate to say it, but DVC needs more inventory. They should have never cancelled the River Country DVC area. It would have been a great area. But then again, they would have to share the Fort Wilderness area and they are not set up like a hotel.
Grand Floridian will be a nice addition and then of course the rumors about the Poly DVC.
I do really think they need to make another standalone DVC down there.

Hey, I was just there and I extended my stay by a day and could not get Boardwalk where I was staying or ANY DVC but Saratoga Springs and they were limited.

I like the DVCs being connected to another resort. But I agree, the inventory is pretty limited and during my stay at VWL, I couldn't help but notice how much they are in need of some refurb. (which is doubtful when the VWL is always booked)

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

The problem becomes if they think each new ride will continue to increase traffic by an order of magnitude that will justify the investment. Comcast isn't known for investing without solid ROI. The parks are doing better, but will they do 33% better to justify increasing capex by 33%? (33% is an example number can't remember the actual percent that was previously quoted)

Before Potterland, Uni didn't have much going on, I'd pretty much written off ever visiting after going many years ago before IOA. Potterland is a game changer, and it will guarantee return visits from Potter fans, and the general theme park audience. By adding the Potter mine train ride, Uni will become more of a "must see" for families going to Orlando, they will make money off of it 15, 20 years, and more, in the future as Harry Potter lives on in the books and DVDs. They obviously aren't going to be spending $$$ every single year.

Uni was pretty trashy, IMHO, but they made some pretty good investments so I think I'll visit them the next time I'm in Orlando, and I'm not alone. I think IOA went up about 2.3 million guests a year due to Potter, so let's say that Gringotts increases attedance up to only 3 million additional guests a year. Let's say that after all is said and done, Uni *nets* $100 dollars profit from each additional visit (I'm thinking park admittance, plus food, plus merchandise), so that would be a net profit of $300 million per year, over ten years that is $3 billion dollars. So you can see that huge amounts of money can be made in the theme park business if you do something amazing that guarantees attendance year after year.

Despite fans complaints about upkeep at WDW, the resort still rakes in hundreds of millions of dollars of profit each year, though Uni has taken a slice of their profits.

 

[Rodan75]

Before Potterland, Uni didn't have much going on, I'd pretty much written off ever visiting after going many years ago before IOA. Potterland is a game changer, and it will guarantee return visits from Potter fans, and the general theme park audience. By adding the Potter mine train ride, Uni will become more of a "must see" for families going to Orlando, they will make money off of it 15, 20 years, and more, in the future as Harry Potter lives on in the books and DVDs. They obviously aren't going to be spending $$$ every single year.

Uni was pretty trashy, IMHO, but they made some pretty good investments so I think I'll visit them the next time I'm in Orlando, and I'm not alone. I think IOA went up about 2.3 million guests a year due to Potter, so let's say that Gringotts increases attedance up to only 3 million additional guests a year. Let's say that after all is said and done, Uni *nets* $100 dollars profit from each additional visit (I'm thinking park admittance, plus food, plus merchandise), so that would be a net profit of $300 million per year, over ten years that is $3 billion dollars. So you can see that huge amounts of money can be made in the theme park business if you do something amazing that guarantees attendance year after year.

Despite fans complaints about upkeep at WDW, the resort still rakes in hundreds of millions of dollars of profit each year, though Uni has taken a slice of their profits.

Good point, I wasn't thinking about how rundown the UO parks were becoming before HP. I've always loved IOA but USF was hopeless for a really long time.

I still think that UO may not get the ROI they are expecting. For all of the negativity spewed at Disney, they are sitting out of this arms race for a reason.

 

[yeti]

Things are getting worse for Disney, not better. And I don't think the upcoming 'Disney Springs' misdirection is going to fool anyone, but my pal Frank in New Mexico. Comcast recently (and quietly) added another $600 million to UNI's capex funds. Think about that figure because Disney has built three parks (DAK, DCA, DSP) for around that sum. What you have at WDW is simply ridiculous now and getting worse.

$600mill?!

That's like...six little mermaids!

It really is amazing what type of scam WDW has been able to pull off until recently between addicts, noobs, folks who never visited before the last decade or so ... but that is coming to an end. And if gas goes above $4 again, which is where it is heading, watch how that affects trips.

It certainly is. Seems to me like the eyebrow-raising has escalated beyond the peripheries of fan culture. Add Comcast to the mix and it's only getting worse...or better. In any case, I think the only total bloody disaster for us consumers would be the widespread adoption of NextGen beyond WDW.

 

[WDW1974]

Hate to say it, but DVC needs more inventory. They should have never cancelled the River Country DVC area. It would have been a great area. But then again, they would have to share the Fort Wilderness area and they are not set up like a hotel.
Grand Floridian will be a nice addition and then of course the rumors about the Poly DVC.
I do really think they need to make another standalone DVC down there.

Hey, I was just there and I extended my stay by a day and could not get Boardwalk where I was staying or ANY DVC but Saratoga Springs and they were limited.

Yep. 'cause we all know there's one thing lacking, one thing that's been almost totally neglected the last 15 years at The Timeshare Kingdom of the World!

 

[WDW1974]

The problem becomes if they think each new ride will continue to increase traffic by an order of magnitude that will justify the investment. Comcast isn't known for investing without solid ROI. The parks are doing better, but will they do 33% better to justify increasing capex by 33%? (33% is an example number can't remember the actual percent that was previously quoted)

Comcast is extremely bullish on the parks business and has made no secret of that. Who knows what the return will be on future projects? But history has shown that people turn out for quality, no matter what operator you are talking about.

Other than folks who are addicted to WDW, you aren't going to have folks planning trips to WDW because of the new Princess Fairytale Hall or transforming DD into DIsney Springs Mall and Dining Complex.

 

[WDW1974]

Good point, I wasn't thinking about how rundown the UO parks were becoming before HP. I've always loved IOA but USF was hopeless for a really long time.

I still think that UO may not get the ROI they are expecting. For all of the negativity spewed at Disney, they are sitting out of this arms race for a reason.

I have been going to UNi's parks annually in FL. I must have somehow still been high on the Disney Dust because I never noticed them being run down, at least not when compared with WDW's parks.

And, yes, Disney is sitting out because they believe that MM+ will place them alone in their own little 'blue ocean' and they no longer need to compete by actually ... ya know ... building stuff. That 'tude can be a death spiral for a BRAND.

 

[Rodan75]

I have been going to UNi's parks annually in FL. I must have somehow still been high on the Disney Dust because I never noticed them being run down, at least not when compared with WDW's parks.

And, yes, Disney is sitting out because they believe that MM+ will place them alone in their own little 'blue ocean' and they no longer need to compete by actually ... ya know ... building stuff. That 'tude can be a death spiral for a BRAND.

Are you really saying USF has never been run down, now who is snorting dust.

I agree with the rest of the point though. TWDC isn't seeing the ROI for investing in attractions in Orlando, but they see it elsewhere. Still think WDW is suffering due to investments in other affiliate businesses like DCL and ABD. They really seemed burnt out on the swamp.

 

[WDW1974]

Are you really saying USF has never been run down, now who is snorting dust.

I would never term UNI as being rundown, unless we're going to say the same for say MK. I've never referred to either that way to my knowledge.
If you are saying that UNI was neglected for a period of years before Comcast's takover, I'd agree with that.

BTW, since everyone has been so excited about the new-fangled Tangled toilets (is there a sit in by bloggers/Disney Lifestylers yet?), it seems to have quietly passed (like gas) that UNI has begun renovating restrooms and theming them. For instance the one near Mummy has a NYC subway look (like the old King Kong ride it replaced) and the one near Mel's is all 50s themed. I don't think UNI fanbois are wetting themselves over those developments, though!

I agree with the rest of the point though. TWDC isn't seeing the ROI for investing in attractions in Orlando, but they see it elsewhere. Still think WDW is suffering due to investments in other affiliate businesses like DCL and ABD. They really seemed burnt out on the swamp.

Nah. DCL and AbD don't really pull from WDW CAPEX. No more so than HKDL and DL do. WDW is suffering because Disney is spending $1.5 billion on NGE and a few hundred million on more timeshares and, likely, a few hundred million more on revamping its mall into an outdoor lifestyle center.

 

[DManRightHere]

It is sad but maybe disney doesnt need the gigantic investments that universal is doing. Universal seems to cost more and only takes a day or two to see everything. Disney has a pretty good scheme for getting you to spend more days at their parks (cheaper the more days you stay). Plus they have four parks that are completely different and much more child friendly. Yes, I gave Disney an excuse to be cheap, but they should spend their money on star wars. They spent 4 billion to own it now they better friggin use it!

Also want to add. If universal is pulling in more and more guests, i would think overflow and a large majority of those guests plan to see disney too. Another reason I give Disney to be cheap. Maybe they are being much more cost effective instead of spending three times the amount to get something built quickly..im just rambling here. If they do work on building entire lands one after another that doesnt sound like a terrible idea, though nothing is announced..but there is speculTions. Ok im done rambling.