WDW Reopening Estimates

[Herdman]

Man, I could have sworn they said the theme parks could open at their own discretion in Phase 1 as of a week or two ago? Did I imagine that?

I don't think theme parks were part of phase 1, but the task force did say that it would be totally up to them as to when and how they opened. No way DeSantis tells Disney what they can or can't do when they mean so much to the Florida economy.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Man, I could have sworn they said the theme parks could open at their own discretion in Phase 1 as of a week or two ago? Did I imagine that?

I don't think theme parks were part of phase 1, but the task force did say that it would be totally up to them as to when and how they opened. No way DeSantis tells Disney what they can or can't do when they mean so much to the Florida economy.

There was confusion between the Orange County recommendations, which said exactly as you remember, and the statewide advisory group's recommendation, which is what went into effect essentially.

 

[Getachew]

My gut says early July. The country has been closed less than 60 days. July is 60 days away. A lot of progress will be made.

I'm leaning towards this as well. Early July opening for some of the parks and resorts. Springs probably June 1st. By August everything open. This of course assumes that no new massive spikes re-occur.

 

[flutas]

If WDW is truly shooting for a July 4th opening, DS would likely open soon to follow Shanghai's example. There have been some signs that it will open soon, as Florida has loosened restrictions and one of the garages opened. Tenants will likely make the final push in either direction based on how other restaurants and shops perform in the area.

FWIW, to back up a post (or mid) July date. I'm fairly certain they have the July 4th pins from the parks loaded in to Shop Disney already.

 

[Imagineer45]

I disagree with your first point. It's become a bit of a talking point among those on the right in that somehow the goalposts have shifted. They haven't. "Flattening the curve" was about two things. One of which you address in detail. The other, which has always been the case, was about minimizing infections/deaths by buying us time until either a) there was a proper test/trace/isolate system that could control outbreaks in a reasonable way b) there's a therapeutic drug which makes this much less severe c) there's a vaccine. We did a decent job of stopping hospitals from getting overwhelmed, but other than some added ventilators, we've made no fundamental changes to our capacity, testing strategy or the availability of therapeutics (even though some look positive). Yes testing has improved since early on but still many states are only testing symptomatic people which doesn't do much good other than adding to a statistic. Until a symptomatic person can have the people they've been in close contact with get tested, the only we will keep going back to where we started, absent some kind of vaccine or therapeutic.

The US switched from containment to mitigation in February, which essentially put tracing/isolating out of the realistic plan. Article from the University of Minnesota on February 25th as proof.

As CDC warns of US COVID-19 spread, labs frustrated over lack of tests

www.cidrap.umn.edu

As for the argument we were waiting until drugs/vaccines were developed, that is just simply not true and a completely new narrative. I am linking below many definitively center or left publications with articles explaining why social distancing was put in place to spread out the same number of cases over a longer period of time and not until a drug/vaccine was developed.
Live Science March 16th:

Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work?

Many hundreds of thousands of infections will happen — but they don't all have to happen at once.

www.livescience.com

CNBC March 19th:

Flattening the coronavirus curve: What this means and why it matters

The WHO has repeatedly underlined the importance of "flattening the curve" in order to tackle the coronavirus outbreak.

www.cnbc.com

Forbes March 13th:

Why Everything Is Closing For Coronavirus: It’s Called ‘Flattening The Curve’

Why are there so many closings and cancellations with fewer than 2,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases? Because public health officials know what's coming.

www.forbes.com

 

[gustaftp]

Exactly! That’s precisely what the Governor up here in MN said when calling for the shelter in place initially. Just a few weeks to isolate everyone thru the incubation period and blunt the rise and get everything ready.....and almost everyone was on board. Though it would be a hit, most agreed the economy could handle a few week pause.

Then the narrative changed and he added a boatload of “conditions” that were never part of the original discussion.....and more and more people are losing their livelihoods.....so no one should be surprised that a people are increasingly concerned.

I'm a Minnesotan, and that's not exactly true. If you read the initial Stay-At-Home order, it is a "Both-And" -- both to keep from people getting each other infected AND to provide hospitals time to prepare. It never was to exclusively give hospitals time to prepare and then go back to normal life as soon as they had beds. https://www.startribune.com/read-gov-tim-walz-s-covid-19-stay-at-home-order/569099661/

As more data became available, tweaks were and are being made. But the premise has remained the same: slow the spread of the disease.

The first month, I stayed home and didn't go out to see anyone, and went to the grocery store only twice. However, when I read the orders closer (and the weather became nicer), it became clear that some activities were acceptable. Since that time, I have gone on weekly "distanced" hikes with my closest friends whom I know where they've been and who they've been in contact with. I am seeing more people doing this, as we also need to be cognizant of our mental health.

 

[Epcotbob]

I'm a Minnesotan, and that's not exactly true. If you read the initial Stay-At-Home order, it is a "Both-And" -- both to keep from people getting each other infected AND to provide hospitals time to prepare. It never was to exclusively give hospitals time to prepare and then go back to normal life as soon as they had beds. https://www.startribune.com/read-gov-tim-walz-s-covid-19-stay-at-home-order/569099661/

As more data became available, tweaks were and are being made. But the premise has remained the same: slow the spread of the disease.

The first month, I stayed home and didn't go out to see anyone, and went to the grocery store only twice. However, when I read the orders closer (and the weather became nicer), it became clear that some activities were acceptable. Since that time, I have gone on weekly "distanced" hikes with my closest friends whom I know where they've been and who they've been in contact with. I am seeing more people doing this, as we also need to be cognizant of our mental health.

Go watch his press conference on March 25th. He pitched Scenario 2 which he called “significant mitigation” which involved shelter in place for 2 weeks to “flatten the curve” and get medical facilities ready so they wouldn’t be overrun. He was very confident that’s all they needed to prepare.

Then when he extended it to May 4th (and then again to mid-May) he introduced a whole new set of criteria for opening that was not part of the original press conference....so the narrative did change. And, by the way, our hospitals, far from being overrun, are laying off large amounts of staff (Including my daughter) because they stopped wellness visits and elective procedures and have so few covid-19 cases.

 

[gustaftp]

Go watch his press conference on March 25th. He pitched Scenario 2 which he called “significant mitigation” which involved shelter in place for 2 weeks to “flatten the curve” and get medical facilities ready so they wouldn’t be overrun. He was very confident that’s all they needed to prepare.

Then when he extended it to May 4th (and then again to mid-May) he introduced a whole new set of criteria for opening that was not part of the original press conference....so the narrative did change. And, by the way, our hospitals, far from being overrun, are laying off large amounts of staff (Including my daughter) because they stopped wellness visits and elective procedures and have so few covid-19 cases.

I linked you to the text document of his March 25th order. It literally says: "Limiting activities to only those which are most essential and practicing social distancing at all times are vital tools required to mitigate the community spread of COVID-19 in Minnesota and nationwide."

The underlying message hasn't changed. Just because people can now play golf, businesses can do curbside delivery, and greenhouses can grow flowers doesn't mean the narrative has changed. It means that Gov Walz is being prudent about slowing the spread of the disease while balancing the various other needs in a cautious but intelligent manner.

 

[marni1971]

Not Orlando, but company related.

Paris has confirmed no reopening until at least mid July. For now.

 

[yonafunu]

Not Orlando, but company related.

Paris has confirmed no reopening until at least mid July. For now.

Hm, i live in France, didn't read that. Only big concert and festivities are forbidden until mid july. I don't think it is related to theme parks, like Europa park in germany which is in the case "tourism" (so not affected by big gatherings)

 

[marni1971]

Hm, i live in France, didn't read that. Only big concert and festivities are forbidden until mid july. I don't think it is related to theme parks, like Europa park in germany which is in the case "tourism" (so not affected by big gatherings)

It was announced earlier this morning. The banner link on the official homepage has been updated to reflect this.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

It was announced earlier this morning. The banner link on the official homepage has been updated to reflect this.

I keep thinking that economics are playing a role in this and it's just not talked about by the heads of parks and state since it triggers people. Since Orlando depends on the big park tourism and pretty sure Paris could squeak by with their Disney park. But wondering if there are conversations at the big dog level that we will never know?

 

[Epcotbob]

I disagree with your first point. It's become a bit of a talking point among those on the right in that somehow the goalposts have shifted. They haven't. "Flattening the curve" was about two things. One of which you address in detail. The other, which has always been the case, was about minimizing infections/deaths by buying us time until either a) there was a proper test/trace/isolate system that could control outbreaks in a reasonable way b) there's a therapeutic drug which makes this much less severe c) there's a vaccine. We did a decent job of stopping hospitals from getting overwhelmed, but other than some added ventilators, we've made no fundamental changes to our capacity, testing strategy or the availability of therapeutics (even though some look positive). Yes testing has improved since early on but still many states are only testing symptomatic people which doesn't do much good other than adding to a statistic. Until a symptomatic person can have the people they've been in close contact with get tested, the only we will keep going back to where we started, absent some kind of vaccine or therapeutic.

All this means is the virus is going to come back with a vengeance in a lot of these states who are not prepared and didn't use the "downtime" wisely.

WDW will likely follow Shanghai's path but, as mentioned, we don't have nearly as good of a grip on the virus as China (allegedly) has now.

You can argue that circumstances have caused the need for longer lockdowns, and I can disagree , but clearly the goalposts *have* shifted, at least from the original “flatten the curve” and “get the medical facilities ready” narrative. That’s what happened up here in MN, and most of the rest of the states....and WDW. Why did Disney initially announce only 2 weeks at first? If it was the points you said, they would not have made it for that short of amount of time. So yeah, the goalposts HAVE shifted. In fact here is an article I found this morning saying exactly that:

Pro-lockdown extremists in denial about why we did it in the first place

We will be in a fight against the novel coronavirus for months, if not years, and yet it is time to declare mission accomplished on one very important goal. The lockdowns of much of the country wer…

nypost.com

 

[bdearl41]

You can argue that circumstances have caused the need for longer lockdowns, and I can disagree , but clearly the goalposts *have* shifted, at least from the original “flatten the curve” and “get the medical facilities ready” narrative. That’s what happened up here in MN, and most of the rest of the states....and WDW. Why did Disney initially announce only 2 weeks at first? If it was the points you said, they would not have made it for that short of amount of time. So yeah, the goalposts HAVE shifted. In fact here is an article I found this morning saying exactly that:

Pro-lockdown extremists in denial about why we did it in the first place

We will be in a fight against the novel coronavirus for months, if not years, and yet it is time to declare mission accomplished on one very important goal. The lockdowns of much of the country wer…

nypost.com

One thing I think is working against Disney, other theme parks and even sports leagues is media blowback. Look how Georgia was crucified when 4 other states opened just a day later. Disney, and for good reason, do all they can to avoid bad press. Being first to open would bring on a monsoon of this. They don’t want to disenfranchise themselves from an entire generation of people who will have kids in the next few years with a poorly viewed decision. They have set a trap for early 80s kids like myself. My kids love Disney plus and will end up having similar sentimental attachments that I did from the early 90s. They’re playing it close to the vest to protect their reputation for millions who are just now buying houses and starting a family. It’s pretty Savvy really for the long term success of the company.

 

[Epcotbob]

One thing I think is working against Disney, other theme parks and even sports leagues is media blowback. Look how Georgia was crucified when 4 other states opened just a day later. Disney, and for good reason, do all they can to avoid bad press. Being first to open would bring on a monsoon of this. They don’t want to disenfranchise themselves from an entire generation of people who will have kids in the next few years with a poorly viewed decision. They have set a trap for early 80s kids like myself. My kids love Disney plus and will end up having similar sentimental attachments that I did from the early 90s. They’re playing it close to the vest to protect their reputation for millions who are just now buying houses and starting a family. It’s pretty Savvy really for the long term success of the company.

Oh yeah, I'm sure Disney is painfully aware that they are forced to play the media game. I'm sure one of the big bullet points in their meetings is how they are going to handle the media falling all over themselves if even a small number of Covid-19 cases emerge from the parks re-opening.

 

[HKDLer]

Looks like Shanghai and Hong Kong are possibly opening May 17th. They both closed in late January so based on WDW closing about 7 weeks later, I'm guessing it may reopen around July 4th.

May 17 is just the 7th anniversary of Mystic Manor, not an indication of when HK reopens. Hong Kong has not been under lockdown at all but the people and the government have been taking action promptly and seriously. Though the local management originally wanted to resume park operations before Easter when the daily number of confirmed cases were already single-digits, the city in general is not in a rush to reopen the economy (people have been enjoying working from home rather than overtime ). Late May/early June is a safe bet though.

 

[Parker in NYC]

They wouldn’t be opening Citywalk without the theme parks following shortly after.

Whatever you say.

 

[Lilofan]

Disneyland Paris now cancelling reservations through July 14th (Bastille Day). Could mean Disney has already resigned themselves to missing July 4th stateside?

A bad sign for WDW?

 

[Parker in NYC]

Today I was about abandon my cart and leave our local Walmart. They have stickers all over the store floor showing what 6ft of distance is, encouraging masks, and they even have stickers on the floor for one-way cart and foot traffic in aisles. They even put DO NOT ENTER signs at the exit side of each one-way aisle. What is the reality? Half or more customers don't have masks, people are all up in your space taking stuff from shelves when you are trying to select items. They all come in whatever side of the aisle they want. If you wait 6ft back from a shelf while someone else selects an item, two others walk around you and go up to the same shelf...only to be followed by more until you give up and move to another area and wait to come back. People are picking their nose, rubbing their face/nose/eyes, and coughing without covering their mouth. It's like a germaphobe's nightmare! Why do people think that everyone is all of a sudden going to be totally different than the gross, disrespectful, selfish morons that make up a large segment of society?

Exactly. This!

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

One thing I think is working against Disney, other theme parks and even sports leagues is media blowback. Look how Georgia was crucified when 4 other states opened just a day later. Disney, and for good reason, do all they can to avoid bad press. Being first to open would bring on a monsoon of this. They don’t want to disenfranchise themselves from an entire generation of people who will have kids in the next few years with a poorly viewed decision. They have set a trap for early 80s kids like myself. My kids love Disney plus and will end up having similar sentimental attachments that I did from the early 90s. They’re playing it close to the vest to protect their reputation for millions who are just now buying houses and starting a family. It’s pretty Savvy really for the long term success of the company.

Your reasoning is sound, but I think it's too early to say Disney is playing it close to the vest relative to their counterparts. We are just now seeing some beaches reopen, and some zoos over the next few weeks. But no theme parks or water parks are open in the US, that I know of.

Now, if Universal and Sea World and Six Flags are all open while WDW remains closed, then we can say for sure that Disney is playing it safe.