WDW Reopening Estimates

[bryanfze55]

It is taxed if I’m not mistaken...the point is I don’t know how much Disney one can afford if that’s a “bump”

It isn’t a lot of money at today’s prices. Every legitimate labor study shows pay is not really increasing over price.

People can take there one time, Steve Munchkin cash payout and go to Disney...but that gets them about 5 days at current pricing.

Don’t want to get into this pricing history stuff. But this is when it does matter. I saw people clamor for “free dining!” For 5+ years on boards while saying “they can’t afford it” otherwise...well it went up 10-15% minimum year over year. The $1600 package in 2010 because like a $3000 package by the middle of the decade as they mostly phased out...

Money is money...there isn’t enough where it needs to be for Disney to keep a constant and growing demand forever.

I’m inclined to agree that people will keep getting priced out as time goes on. But as for how much is “needed,” I can tell you that the average person at WDW or DL on any given day is not a six figure earner. It’s statistically near impossible. Some people just keep their fixed costs really low (like me), or whip out the credit card. Also, not everyone has a taste for the Polynesian. I could be wrong, but at last read, I think most visitors still stay offsite.

 

[bryanfze55]

Keep in mind that unless they work for Disney, anyone who ended up on unemployment and needs insurance now either has to work with their boss (like my husband is) and continue paying their share of insurance, or possibly get COBRA coverage, which is expensive. Between that and taxes (if they choose to have them taken out now, like my husband did), there might not be much of a "bump" left. (My husband is actually taking home a little less than he was working full time.)

It’s unfortunate that he’s taking home less, but you did say “a little less”, indicating the hit may not be that bad maybe? I don’t think anyone should get a “bump” for not working. They should be made as whole as possible.
My original point was that enhanced government intervention has possibly kept people whole this time whereas during the last recession it was a little more Darwinist. COBRA would be the dealbreaker. Sounds like you’ve avoided that debacle for now.

 

[mkt]

My money is on late summer at limited capacity, no full capacity until after a vaccine or treatment is readily available.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

It’s unfortunate that he’s taking home less, but you did say “a little less”, indicating the hit may not be that bad maybe? I don’t think anyone should get a “bump” for not working. They should be made as whole as possible.
My original point was that enhanced government intervention has possibly kept people whole this time whereas during the last recession it was a little more Darwinist. COBRA would be the dealbreaker. Sounds like you’ve avoided that debacle for now.

It's not that bad. Noticeable, but still manageable. Thankfully, we have. My one worry is that his boss will expect us to cover 100% of the cost of the insurance and that we'll end up owing the company money when all this is said and done. They've pulled sleazy stunts like that before.

ETA: They're a construction-based and restoration company, so they've been having the guys work 1 day a week (when there's work) to cover our share of the insurance. When there's no work, I send them a check for our share.

 

[bryanfze55]

Important to remember that the $600 extra only runs until the end of July I believe as well so that isn‘t a long-term fix.

Umm, it’s entirely likely that the whole country will be back to work by then. If not, I’m sure the $600 will get extended. Nobody on either side of the aisle wants to be the person that axes that. Come on now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Keep in mind that unless they work for Disney, anyone who ended up on unemployment and needs insurance now either has to work with their boss (like my husband is) and continue paying their share of insurance, or possibly get COBRA coverage, which is expensive. Between that and taxes (if they choose to have them taken out now, like my husband did), there might not be much of a "bump" left. (My husband is actually taking home a little less than he was working full time.)

Not entirely...though those on cobra are certainly not making out...

The PPP was designed to keep people on their group insurance. Whatever bailout money Disney is certainly being given is also on that design: they get the salary money for free IF They keep people on healthcare. Healthcare is a huge issue in this crisis...its what experts have warned about for years.

Ok...back to parks (I’ll dismiss myself from the Econ roundtable now)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Umm, it’s entirely likely that the whole country will be back to work by then. If not, I’m sure the $600 will get extended. Nobody on either side of the aisle wants to be the person that axes that. Come on now.

I don’t think you’re correct there...that will only be extended for “sacrifices” from one side or the other and I don’t see that continuing much longer.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Not entirely...though those on cobra are certainly not making out...

The PPP was designed to keep people on their group insurance. Whatever bailout money Disney is certainly being given is also on that design: they get the salary money for free IF They keep people on healthcare. Healthcare is a huge issue in this crisis...its what experts have warned about for years.

Ok...back to parks (I’ll dismiss myself from the Econ roundtable now)

Yeah...but I'm sure there are lots of smallish companies out there who don't want the feds poking around in their books, like my husband's company. We knew as soon as the PPP was announced that there would be different arrangements made by his boss.

And we're in MA...no health insurance and we face fines.

 

[bryanfze55]

I don’t think you’re correct there...that will only be extended for “sacrifices” from one side or the other and I don’t see that continuing much longer.

Well that’s what I believed the first time, and they shocked me by getting a bill out so quickly. Some would call the bill robust, some would call it not enough... but it was something.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah...but I'm sure there are lots of smallish companies out there who don't want the feds poking around in their books, like my husband's company. We knew as soon as the PPP was announced that there would be different arrangements made by his boss.

And we're in MA...no health insurance and we face fines.

I’ve heard the same stories here in jersey....

I knew immediately that the PPP was going to be “twisted”...and by golly I’m tired of being right

I’ll leave it at that...good luck to you.

 

[Jrb1979]

Eh... Phase 4 of the Governor’s plan, which allows for higher risk activities, won’t be permitted until “therapeutics are developed.” I guess Disneyland is going away forever if we don’t get good drugs.

I think the biggest issue I have is so many of the pro-lockdown folks are talking as though vaccines and therapeutics are an eventual given if we can just hang in there... and they just aren’t. There needs to be alternative plans in place.

I am not pro lockdown but reopening quickly like Texas and Georgia is too early. Vaccine may not happen but some form of treatment will most likely happen soon.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's not that bad. Noticeable, but still manageable. Thankfully, we have. My one worry is that his boss will expect us to cover 100% of the cost of the insurance and that we'll end up owing the company money when all this is said and done. They've pulled sleazy stunts like that before.

ETA: They're a construction-based and restoration company, so they've been having the guys work 1 day a week (when there's work) to cover our share of the insurance. When there's no work, I send them a check for our share.

Yikes...that is sleazy....sounds like the boss is Gerry Callahan (Boston joke)...

Anyway...your scenario is exactly what I was saying about Disney: you’re managing...but is it time for a lavish Disney vacation?

I would venture that many more are weighing you’re scenario that otherwise wouldn’t than are chomping at the bit to rush after hours magic with their pin lanyards on.

A surge at first is just that...a surge. Then reality sets in.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Yikes...that is sleazy....sounds like the boss is Gerry Callahan (Boston joke)...

Anyway...your scenario is exactly what I was saying about Disney: you’re managing...but is it time for a lavish Disney vacation?

I would venture that many more are weighing you’re scenario that otherwise wouldn’t than are chomping at the bit to rush after hours magic with their pin lanyards on.

A surge at first is just that...a surge. Then reality sets in.

Yep...definitely not planning for a vacation any time soon. Last time his company pulled this was when hubby had open heart surgery. He was on short-term disability for 8 weeks, then had the pleasure of returning to work and being greeted with a $1600 bill for insurance.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yep...definitely not planning for a vacation any time soon. Last time his company pulled this was when hubby had open heart surgery. He was on short-term disability for 8 weeks, then had the pleasure of returning to work and being greeted with a $1600 bill for insurance.

I’m no lawyer...but it sure seems like that SHOULD be illegal

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I’m no lawyer...but it sure seems like that SHOULD be illegal

It absolutely should be...but there are always loopholes.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I’m no lawyer...but it sure seems like that SHOULD be illegal

There was another time that hubby hurt his back on the job and the boss told him to go to one of those urgent care clinics and said he'd pay the bill...we're still getting notices on that one from the clinic. Long story short, my husband was an idiot for listening to him to begin with.

 

[bryanfze55]

Yikes...that is sleazy....sounds like the boss is Gerry Callahan (Boston joke)...

Anyway...your scenario is exactly what I was saying about Disney: you’re managing...but is it time for a lavish Disney vacation?

I would venture that many more are weighing you’re scenario that otherwise wouldn’t than are chomping at the bit to rush after hours magic with their pin lanyards on.

A surge at first is just that...a surge. Then reality sets in.

I would not PLAN a lavish vacation right now no matter what. I feel like there are issues with how much cognitive dissonance you’d feel spending so much for a lessened experience.

That being said, I purchased theme park tickets for October 2020 before COVID-19 hit us (should have waited I know, but purchasing tickets got me a larger discount for Animal Kingdom Lodge on Undercover Tourist)... The hotel is refundable, but the theme park tickets aren’t refundable. If the park is open, I guess we’re going to have to go... I know Undercover Tourist has been refunding during park closure, but I don’t think a refund will be offered just because I call and whine about the subpar experience being offered.

Guess I’m going on vacation yay

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There was another time that hubby hurt his back on the job and the boss told him to go to one of those urgent care clinics and said he'd pay the bill...we're still getting notices on that one from the clinic. Long story short, my husband was an idiot for listening to him to begin with.

Yeah...that’s the damn near universal workers comp scam...unfortunately

We’re offtrack...hopefully we get some more “Disney” news soon

 

[jpeden]

My money is on late summer at limited capacity, no full capacity until after a vaccine or treatment is readily available.

If a vaccine can be effectively developed (and there has not been on developed that effectively treats coronavirus in the way that people are expecting a COVID-19 one to work) it won't be available for mass production and distribution until next year (and most likely late next year) at the earliest. On top of that, with many different medical sources reporting that there may not be long-term antibody protection, a vaccine may not even be viable (which wouldn't be a surprise).

Society won't be able to wait that long to bring things back to normal operations - that is just a fact.

 

[wedenterprises]

Wasn't sure which thread to post this question on, they're all the same.

What is the typical attendance of an after hours event? I'm trying to figure out what 50% capacity looks like at the MK. Are the Villains, Very Merry, or Not-So-Scary events a good indicator of what 50% capacity will look like?