Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Those numbers are never released...only guesstimated
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
WDW Reopening Estimates
- Thread starter tecowdw
- Start date
- Status
Ravenclaw78
Well-Known Member
Estimates I've seen are ~5000 guests at Magic Kingdom after Hours (not villains) and ~30,000 at MNSSHP and MVMCP in recent years (used to be ~10,000, but they've sold more tickets each year than the previous year for quite a while now). Crowd density is also a factor of which attractions are open and what capacity limitations they're running under, though. 30K guests in a fully-open park looks a lot different from 30K guests with only 10 attractions and a couple of restaurants operating.
wedenterprises
Well-Known Member
That's a good point. I suppose we don't know what will be operating yet and *if* they'll even be able to reach 50% in the early days.
One thing that skews density too are the DJs, parades, fireworks etc. Without those it might feel more like the old school E-ride nights.
csmat99
Well-Known Member
That is a lie. Healthy people under 65 have gotten the virus and died. Personally I know of at least 3. In addition all these "healthy" people would most likely come in contact with older people or people who are truly high risk.
Don’t bother...
We will have to agree to disagree on this. I respect your opinion but society can't go on for multiple years like this hoping for a therapeutic or vaccine.
There has never been a vaccine developed that is effective against a coronavirus - I don't understand why people think this one will be different. Even the flu vaccine has limited effectiveness and only blunts the effects, it doesn't prevent you from getting the flu. A COVID-19 vaccine would be no different. Evidence is forming that this isn't MMR/Polio/Smallpox where you can become inoculated from it.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
I think a more useful argument/dataset is that its true, younger people under 65 absolutely are at risk but obviously not at the rate of above 65. When you slice the data even more, using data through 4/25/20, 926 people died from (or complications from) COVID-19 under 44 years of age, which accounts for 58% of the US population.
Disclaimer, we know that deaths are being under reported but from what we know now, if your 65 or under your chance of dying is statistically very low if you don't have underlying medical issues of course. All that said, it doesn't mean I am oblivious to the fact that I can't catch this and it be life threatening. Per the CDC website:
Disclaimer, we know that deaths are being under reported but from what we know now, if your 65 or under your chance of dying is statistically very low if you don't have underlying medical issues of course. All that said, it doesn't mean I am oblivious to the fact that I can't catch this and it be life threatening. Per the CDC website:
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
They do have medication that will help people fight the flu. Something that doesn't exist for Covid-19. Til that happens this is most likely the new normal. People will learn to adapt.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
We do not know that. Deaths have been both over-reported in some instances and under-reported in others.
If society can’t learn to queue six foot apart then the planet is lost.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
It's not how human beings behave. "Social distancing" is not something that can be learned and sustained by the most social species that has ever existed.
Certainly underreported in the UK due to known factors. Today’s UK total figure included more of the usually not included figure and it was a high one.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
It most certainly is. We didn't get to where we are by not being able to adapt in order to survive.
bryanfze55
Well-Known Member
Personal anecdotes aren’t science, Martin.
Between 2/1 - 4/25, 6,846 people under 65 died of COVID-19 in the US compared to 2,033 from influenza (no, I’m not saying this is no worse than the flu). I think COVID-19 is about 3x as transmissible as influenza, so what I am suggesting is in the under-65 crowd, the mortality rate for each disease may be very similar. Unfortunately with COVID, more transmissible = more overall deaths. It’s entirely probable that the lockdowns reduced both COVID-19 and influenza deaths, but the 3x rate for COVID-19 would still hold true for the under-65 group.
I don’t think there should be an issue with conceding that the 65+ crowd is going to need more protection than the under-65 crowd. The 65+ group makes up 16% of the US population but has accounted for 80% of US COVID-19 deaths.
With only 6,846 deaths under 65, that posters’ odds of knowing 3 people in that age group that have died from COVID-19 are statistically improbable. They were likely located in a hotspot. We unfortunately lost a 50-something coworker who lived in New York.
But again, anecdotes are not statistics. That shouldn’t be taboo to say.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
US guidelines cause overreporting for two reasons.
1) Deaths of COVID-positive patients that died from a cause unrelated to COVID are counted as COVID deaths. You could literally walk in front of a train and then if you test positive after the fact, you'll be included in the statistics.
2) Testing is not required. Doctors have been instructed to classify deaths as COVID deaths if they reasonably suspect that the patient is COVID-positive. Thus, flu deaths (which look an awful lot like COVID deaths in many instances) are being improperly included.
Businesses are going to put these rules in place and people are going to outright ignore them, especially here in the States.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
I'm at the point where if people don't do as they're asked, they should be refused as a customer. No shirt/No shoes/No mask = no service.
The treatment regimen for flu for the most part is rest, fluids, and OTC painkillers/fever reducers. There are some antivirals but those are only given in severe cases (such as tamiflu - and most people present with symptons too late for tamiflu to be effective). For 80-85T% of cases of COVID-19, the treatment course is the same.
They may find an antiviral that works (and the first double blind study of Remdisiver that was published today is certainly progress), but anti-virals aren't going to be developed overnight. We have to learn to live with this thing. Unfortunately, 21st century humans and people that live in western democracies aren't conditioned to be kept from daily like like we have been and I don't see how it goes on much longer. I totally agree we must ease back into full participation as a way to control hot spots and flare ups, but I don't think that the modern economic society we have built can continue to function much longer in this status.
- Status