WDW Reopening Estimates

[tecowdw]

So are you saying that the "resort guests" in your example are "local resort guests" that are within driving distance? because limiting to Disney resort guests is still a massive amount of people.

Could be but not unless we presume all resort hotels would be open rather than just 4 or 5 of them. But there is no way to tell how many local (drive-able) people will stay away for their own safety desires regardless of what Disney implements as precautions. A lot of unknown here, for sure. One thing Disney knows that we don't is their resort hotel bookings as they currently stand for June. We know they can't be anywhere near normal capacity so the question is how booked are they? In fact, that probably is about the only real guest barometer they have at the moment.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not disagreeing with you but the post I just made outlining the reopening plans for Orange County make no mention of guests in any business wearing masks but goes out of its way to specify the employees will be.

Just the messenger

Oh...I don’t disagree with that..

It’s a “service” aka near servitude town...so they will absolutely make the employees do that for aesthetics if nothing else...

I don’t see any mention of customers and that sets up a weird scenario. There will be a difference based on geography playing out if it’s left up to the individuals. Just a guess.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Could be but not unless we presume all resort hotels would be open rather than just 4 or 5 of them. But there is no way to tell how many local (drive-able) people will stay away for their own safety desires regardless of what Disney implements as precautions. A lot of unknown here, for sure. One thing Disney knows that we don't is their resort hotel bookings as they currently stand for June. We know they can't be anywhere near normal capacity so the question is how booked are they? In fact, that probably is about the only real guest barometer they have at the moment.

I mean, I can't imagine they'd have enough bookings to warrant having more then a handful of resorts open. But it becomes like mass transit, cut down to save money but overcrowd what is left. Unsure how they handle/decide. Do they just move everyone to the open resorts? Do guests get a choice? The only people who will be attending these resorts in June will be American's since I assume travel will be restricted until next year.

 

[Giss Neric]

I am just asking the question of what will Disney require their CM's to use if masks are a requirement.

Masks that have Disney design on them so that guests would be able to differentiate guests from CMs.

 

[Giss Neric]

So are you saying that the "resort guests" in your example are "local resort guests" that are within driving distance? because limiting to Disney resort guests is still a massive amount of people.

Maybe if they limit the resorts opened. Only Deluxe reports like Grand Flo, Contemporary, Polynesian etc. will be opened first. That will surely limit the people cause it also limits the people who can afford those LOL!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mean, I can't imagine they'd have enough bookings to warrant having more then a handful of resorts open. But it becomes like mass transit, cut down to save money but overcrowd what is left. Unsure how they handle/decide. Do they just move everyone to the open resorts? Do guests get a choice? The only people who will be attending these resorts in June will be American's since I assume travel will be restricted until next year.

It’s going to be only domestic for awhile...I don’t think anyone in the US is going to broach that football for awhile...

But I think you’ll see plenty of demand from the go.

This isn’t like 2001 where the people of New Jersey thought every plane was now a target (sad but kinda true...) and most of the rest of the world snapped back at a near blink...

This is like 90% of everyone literally locked at home with near zero rec....
The pent up demand is going to be hard to handle. Especially from non-hotspots.

Masks that have Disney design on them so that guests would be able to differentiate guests from CMs.

The polyester won’t be enough anymore?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe if they limit the resorts opened. Only Deluxe reports like Grand Flo, Contemporary, Polynesian etc. will be opened first. That will surely limit the people cause it also limits the people who can afford those LOL!

We haven’t even broached pricing...that will be an interesting approach issue also...

Only $600 a night welcome? Might make sense in the short term and be a huge mistake longterm

 

[DisneyJoe]

Maybe if they limit the resorts opened. Only Deluxe reports like Grand Flo, Contemporary, Polynesian etc. will be opened first. That will surely limit the people cause it also limits the people who can afford those LOL!

2 adults, June 1-5, 2020, almost all resorts show availability at this moment.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

2 adults, June 1-5, 2020, almost all resorts show availability at this moment.

Probably because no one sane on earth thinks it will be open??

But also...it was looking like a down booking year before this all started as well.

A protracted recession won’t help much with that.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

My window for fastpasses opened this morning. Two hours after opening, nothing even halfway good was available.

so.... someone’s still planning on going May 28th.

 

[wishiwere@wdw]

My window for fastpasses opened this morning. Two hours after opening, nothing even halfway good was available.

so.... someone’s still planning on going May 28th.

I’m curious... were any tier 1 fp attractions available? I’m being told these are moving to boarding groups but haven’t seen/heard any evidence.

 

[WDWTrojan]

It’s going to be only domestic for awhile...I don’t think anyone in the US is going to broach that football for awhile...

But I think you’ll see plenty of demand from the go.

This isn’t like 2001 where the people of New Jersey thought every plane was now a target (sad but kinda true...) and most of the rest of the world snapped back at a near blink...

This is lone 90% of everyone literally locked at home with near zero rec....
The pent up demand is going to be hard to handle. Especially from non-hotspots.

The polyester won’t be enough anymore?

I'm really torn on what demand will be like. The country overwhelmingly is concerned about lockdowns easing too early, despite a small but very vocal minority. People might be ready to go to a restaurant, but I think it's a big jump for most (not all) to get on a plane or go to a crowded theme park.

Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Most Americans reject anti-lockdown protests

The total number of protesters may be small. But the public’s dismissive attitude toward them reflects a deeper sentiment: Americans strongly disagree with those who claim the country is ready to reopen for business.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Buried20KLeague]

I’m curious... were any tier 1 fp attractions available? I’m being told these are moving to boarding groups but haven’t seen/heard any evidence.

not one. And being just two hours after the 30 day window opening, with everything going on... I actually thought it looked like maybe everything big was shut down to the usual FP’s.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm really torn on what demand will be like. The country overwhelmingly is concerned about lockdowns easing too early, despite a small but very vocal minority. People might be ready to go to a restaurant, but I think it's a big jump for most (not all) to get on a plane or go to a crowded theme park.

Yahoo News/YouGov coronavirus poll: Most Americans reject anti-lockdown protests

The total number of protesters may be small. But the public’s dismissive attitude toward them reflects a deeper sentiment: Americans strongly disagree with those who claim the country is ready to reopen for business.

news.yahoo.com

I saw it...it’s about 70% in polling favor the lockdowns or minimum severe distancing...

But if you read the same 10 or so people on the threads...you’d think it was 98% against.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

not one. And being just two hours after the 30 day window opening, with everything going on... I actually thought it looked like maybe everything big was shut down to the usual FP’s.

That prebooking System is completely pointless...it’s a numbers system that can’t all of a sudden be ratcheted down by a high percentage of slots. They might as well admit it won’t be working as it did before. And since it was tiered and not exceptionally useful...I use “working” very loosely

 

[bryanfze55]

I saw it...it’s about 70% in polling favor the lockdowns or minimum severe distancing...

But if you read the same 10 or so people on the threads...you’d think it was 98% against.

There’s a middle ground.

 

[Jrb1979]

There’s a middle ground.

Yes there is. I think what California is doing is the best compromise.

 

[bryanfze55]

Yes there is. I think what California is doing is the best compromise.

Eh... Phase 4 of the Governor’s plan, which allows for higher risk activities, won’t be permitted until “therapeutics are developed.” I guess Disneyland is going away forever if we don’t get good drugs.

I think the biggest issue I have is so many of the pro-lockdown folks are talking as though vaccines and therapeutics are an eventual given if we can just hang in there... and they just aren’t. There needs to be alternative plans in place.

 

[Stevie Amsterdam]

Only $600 a night welcome? Might make sense in the short term and be a huge mistake longterm

Could you help me understand why it would be a mistake in the longterm? (honest question)

 

[DisneyCane]

Yeah, sure... you could say that about pretty much any activity right now.. Is your solution to bar only senior citizens from participating in our society(and theme parks)? Besides being very illegal, it's just not a solution at all.

Eventually some businesses will need to open (not necessarily theme parks) for survival. While you cannot ban them, the elderly may want to use their best judgment for quite some time, including withholding from partaking in large gatherings. I don’t see why that’s a problem.

Exactly. The elderly shouldn't be barred from anything. They should be informed of the risks and make their own decisions about where they want to go and what they want to do. Given the statistics, I would think most people over 65 will want to take precautions until a vaccine is available or the spread has been significantly reduced to where the risk of contraction is extremely low.

Also, there are cases where "age discrimination" is legal. Airline pilots have a mandatory retirement age of 65. Air traffic controllers 56 (with exceptions allowed up to 61).

A lot of the elderly still work. A significant portion of WDW cast members are elderly.

They should be given the option to stay home and continue to take advantage of the unemployment benefits and leave.