WDW Reopening Estimates

When will WDW theme parks reopen to guests?

  • May

    Votes: 34 3.0%
  • June

    Votes: 424 37.3%
  • July

    Votes: 287 25.2%
  • August

    Votes: 124 10.9%
  • September or even later in 2020

    Votes: 269 23.6%

  • Total voters
    1,138
  • Poll closed .
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
There has to be middle ground... asking people to come take a WDW vacation and possibly turning them away at the gate due to a positive COVID-19 test won’t work... yes, they can reuse the tickets. But who is going to refund their flights and hotel??

I’ve advocated for opening the parks for the first three months to locals only who won’t be materially harmed if they’re turned away at the gate.
There won't be testing to enter the parks. That is pretty much guaranteed. Temperature screening maybe.

People traveling from a distance will need to be informed of whatever policy is in place and either accept the financial risk or purchase travel insurance.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I don't want to get in a mask debate (please don't), but I'd be very surprised if guests aren't required to wear them and take their temperature. Not sure how realistic it ultimately is though. It may be a false sense of security, but so is the actual security we go through, and we do it anyway. I get those are just the proposals and more towards what they are considering doing and it's just a proposal. I like what I see, but I want a little more on the 'guest' end.
The biggest issue with required masks is children. Young children that I see in grocery stores are rarely actually wearing the mask. It is "on" them but they are always playing with it or wearing it as a necklace. A high percentage of WDW visitors is in this age group and they are the most likely to be asymptomatic if they have the virus.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I saw it...it’s about 70% in polling favor the lockdowns or minimum severe distancing...

But if you read the same 10 or so people on the threads...you’d think it was 98% against.
There’s a middle ground.
Is the middle ground included in the polls? If the choice is open up like the virus doesn't exist or severe distancing then there will be a huge bias towards the latter.

The real poll will be when WDW opens to see what kind of crowds appear. That will show what the general public really feels.
 

John park hopper

Well-Known Member
I don't consider myself elderly (very healthy) I do pretty much everything like when I was 30 maybe a little slower, wife reminds me I am elderly. However with cover-19 out there I think twice about where I go until there is a vaccine available. WDW is out for us until there is
 

jinx8402

Well-Known Member
Could you help me understand why it would be a mistake in the longterm? (honest question)

I think it's because they would come of as only wanting an affluent clientele only instead of your average family. Disney was always thought of the family destination, but if the only people who could afford it are those making well into 6 figures, then the perception would shift.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I think it's because they would come of as only wanting an affluent clientele only instead of your average family. Disney was always thought of the family destination, but if the only people who could afford it are those making well into 6 figures, then the perception would shift.
In 1971 the US population was 37% smaller. If the percentage of who can afford $600 a night (inflation adjusted) was constant, it is possible that in 1971 it wouldn't be enough people to support the business but in 2020 it is.

I'm not saying WDW should only be catering to the top 20% or whatever the actual point is. I'm saying that when Walt Disney had the "every family" philosophy, that was probably more of a business requirement that an altruistic philosophy.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Eh... Phase 4 of the Governor’s plan, which allows for higher risk activities, won’t be permitted until “therapeutics are developed.” I guess Disneyland is going away forever if we don’t get good drugs.

I think the biggest issue I have is so many of the pro-lockdown folks are talking as though vaccines and therapeutics are an eventual given if we can just hang in there... and they just aren’t. There needs to be alternative plans in place.
Even with things as they are now, with non-essential businesses closed and most people staying home, we're still seeing new infections. We WILL reach herd immunity at some point...the re-opening is meant to speed that up a little bit...but the big problem with both staying as we are now AND re-opening is that we're not testing enough to have even a vague grasp of when we'll get to herd immunity.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Is the middle ground included in the polls? If the choice is open up like the virus doesn't exist or severe distancing then there will be a huge bias towards the latter.

The real poll will be when WDW opens to see what kind of crowds appear. That will show what the general public really feels.
No...it’s just random polling number...which we know are “fairly” accurate...

I think the demand will be stronger than expected at first....then fall after.

ICYMI...the US economy fell at a rate of 4.8% first quarter this year...and the “fun” is just getting started...probably double that in the second quarter.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Could you help me understand why it would be a mistake in the longterm? (honest question)
It’s not an “exclusive, luxury” spot and never will be. They are built and operated on a mass consumption model.

Most of the business is still “middle of the road” Economic means...

For ten years I’ve watched people on boards post nonsensities like “they’re trying to lower attendance...”

🐃💩

That was never the goal. The goal was to condition people to spend more and more - push the upper limits at all time - while expanding attendance.

That’s it. Welcome to Iger management 101.

They’ve Already “pushed it”.....we in a recession, kids....the first in a decade. Time to retreat and rebuild the damn, Disney.
 

bryanfze55

Well-Known Member
No...it’s just random polling number...which we know are “fairly” accurate...

I think the demand will be stronger than expected at first....then fall after.

ICYMI...the US economy fell at a rate of 4.8% first quarter this year...and the “fun” is just getting started...probably double that in the second quarter.

In a normal recession, I would be inclined to say there would be a drop in demand. This time, I’m not so sure. The expanded unemployment benefits and stimulus check(s) will make a lot of people whole, and many will be coming out ahead. As long as they have a job to go back to when this subsides, I think the demand for travel will be there... from a financial perspective (not sure about from a health perspective).
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
In a normal recession, I would be inclined to say there would be a drop in demand. This time, I’m not so sure. The expanded unemployment benefits and stimulus check(s) will make a lot of people whole, and many will be coming out ahead. As long as they have a job to go back to when this subsides, I think the demand for travel will be there... from a financial perspective (not sure about from a health perspective).
Ehhh...I know Americans are bad with money and like to spend...but $600 a week extra isn’t the bread and circuses it’s being made out to be. If that’s a lot of money in your state...you’re not affording too much Disney at today’s prices anyway.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The biggest issue with required masks is children. Young children that I see in grocery stores are rarely actually wearing the mask. It is "on" them but they are always playing with it or wearing it as a necklace. A high percentage of WDW visitors is in this age group and they are the most likely to be asymptomatic if they have the virus.
I won’t belabor this...cause I’ve said it...

The biggest issue is the heat and humidity in Florida a vast part of the year with personal protective equipment.

The amount of “relief” and “adjustment” That will go on from people who have NEVER gone near a mask before will make this endeavor pointless if it’s required...

I’m trained in PPE and it’s useless if it’s used for long periods and “comfort” is a consideration. It’s not meant to be comfortable.
 

bryanfze55

Well-Known Member
Ehhh...I know Americans are bad with money and like to spend...but $600 a week extra isn’t the bread and circuses it’s being made out to be. If that’s a lot of money in your state...you’re not affording too much Disney at today’s prices anyway.

Well it’s $600 + the state unemployment, which in my state is $320/week. So that’s $920/week. And I could be wrong, but that isn’t taxed is it? Say both spouses are on it, that’s $1840/week... that’s basically a six figure household. For not working, I would say that’s doing quite well. You wouldn’t?
 
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ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Well it’s $600 + the state unemployment, which in my state is $320/week. So that’s $920/week. And I could be wrong, but that isn’t taxed is it? Say both spouses are on it, that’s $1840/week... that’s basically a six figure household. For not working, I would say that’s doing quite well. You wouldn’t?
In MA, you can elect for 15% taxes (both Federal and State) to be taken out, or to be hit when you file.
 

peter11435

Well-Known Member
Well it’s $600 + the state unemployment, which in my state is $320/week. So that’s $920/week. And I could be wrong, but that isn’t taxed is it? Say both spouses are on it, that’s $1840/week... that’s basically a six figure household. For not working, I would say that’s doing quite well. You wouldn’t?
It will be taxed
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Well it’s $600 + the state unemployment, which in my state is $320/week. So that’s $920/week. And I could be wrong, but that isn’t taxed is it? Say both spouses are on it, that’s $1840/week... that’s basically a six figure household. For not working, I would say that’s doing quite well. You wouldn’t?
Wanted to add that I haven't yet heard of anyone with both spouses collecting unemployment...online or among families I know personally. It seems most families have at least one adult who is considered essential. In fact I can think of four families I know personally in which both parents are still working - half of whom have one parent working at home.
 

bryanfze55

Well-Known Member
Wanted to add that I haven't yet heard of anyone with both spouses collecting unemployment...online or among families I know personally. It seems most families have at least one adult who is considered essential.

I agree it’s not likely, but in that case the family still has one working income. Then if the other spouse gets full state and federal unemployment... I’m just making the case that many, many people will be made whole and possibly even more... WDWMagic may skew “high roller”, but that doesn’t extrapolate to the country as a whole.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Well it’s $600 + the state unemployment, which in my state is $320/week. So that’s $920/week. And I could be wrong, but that isn’t taxed is it? Say both spouses are on it, that’s $1840/week... that’s basically a six figure household. For not working, I would say that’s doing quite well. You wouldn’t?
It is taxed if I’m not mistaken...the point is I don’t know how much Disney one can afford if that’s a “bump”

It isn’t a lot of money at today’s prices. Every legitimate labor study shows pay is not really increasing over price.

People can take there one time, Steve Munchkin cash payout and go to Disney...but that gets them about 5 days at current pricing.

Don’t want to get into this pricing history stuff. But this is when it does matter. I saw people clamor for “free dining!” For 5+ years on boards while saying “they can’t afford it” otherwise...well it went up 10-15% minimum year over year. The $1600 package in 2010 became like a $3000 package by the middle of the decade as they mostly phased out...

Money is money...there isn’t enough where it needs to be for Disney to keep a constant and growing demand forever.
 
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jpeden

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
Well it’s $600 + the state unemployment, which in my state is $320/week. So that’s $920/week. And I could be wrong, but that isn’t taxed is it? Say both spouses are on it, that’s $1840/week... that’s basically a six figure household. For not working, I would say that’s doing quite well. You wouldn’t?

Important to remember that the $600 extra only runs until the end of July I believe as well so that isn‘t a long-term fix.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
It is taxed if I’m not mistaken...the point is I don’t know how much Disney one can afford if that’s a “bump”

It isn’t a lot of money at today’s prices. Every legitimate labor study shows pay is not really increasing over price.

People can take there one time, Steve Munchkin cash payout and go to Disney...but that gets them about 5 days at current pricing.

Don’t want to get into this pricing history stuff. But this is when it does matter. I saw people clamor for “free dining!” For 5+ years on boards while saying “they can’t afford it” otherwise...well it went up 10-15% minimum year over year. The $1600 package in 2010 because like a $3000 package by the middle of the decade as they mostly phased out...

Money is money...there isn’t enough where it needs to be for Disney to keep a constant and growing demand forever. My file Liz from NYC knows this😉
Keep in mind that unless they work for Disney, anyone who ended up on unemployment and needs insurance now either has to work with their boss (like my husband is) and continue paying their share of insurance, or possibly get COBRA coverage, which is expensive. Between that and taxes (if they choose to have them taken out now, like my husband did), there might not be much of a "bump" left. (My husband is actually taking home a little less than he was working full time.)
 
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