WDW Reopening Estimates

[WDWTrojan]

There is a lot of discussion on this, much if it heated. That said, there are a lot of essential businesses still running in the country, with relatively low spread. There are ways to socially distance and be properly sanitary even in bowling alleys and movie theaters. If they don’t try to jam them full, and people abide by the rules in terms of social distancing, things can be made much safer than back in the days of “see how many people we can jam in without cleaning in between”. I expect that we will see theaters with 50% capacity and extensive sanitation between shows. They may require patrons to wear masks. All of which will reduce transmission.

Let's say 10% of the economy is running outside of healthcare, excluding people working remotely, we've seen 50K deaths in a month. I wouldn't say that is "relatively low spread." That's substantial. Now if we reopen the economy without going through phases, what exactly do you think will happen to that death count?

And, again, its being proven more and more than the 6 foot rule is not as effective as one suspected. Even if it was, I'd highly doubt most bowling alleys or movie theaters are going to be able to wipe everything down to the level of complete cleanliness.

 

[tecowdw]

I get this logic, but I also believe that getting DVC Resorts open is necessary for the points problem brewing, and also there should be a need. Many DVC have Resort only stays, for up to a month. I agree to get monorail and skyliner resorts open.

I am a local DVC owner and I'd surely be willing to do a resort only visit at any time Disney/Officials feel it would be safe to do so. I paid for my points and I want to use them - even if I can't do a park for awhile.

 

[tecowdw]

EXACTLY! its because MONEY!

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Disney is a public company with legally bound shareholder value protection requirements. If it's not about the money, then they should be a not-for-profit organization.

Just saying...

 

[Run4DisneyFun]

Let's say 10% of the economy is running outside of healthcare, excluding people working remotely, we've seen 50K deaths in a month. I wouldn't say that is "relatively low spread." That's substantial. Now if we reopen the economy without going through phases, what exactly do you think will happen to that death count?

And, again, its being proven more and more than the 6 foot rule is not as effective as one suspected. Even if it was, I'd highly doubt most bowling alleys or movie theaters are going to be able to wipe everything down to the level of complete cleanliness.

While I am not an epidemiologist, I am in the response team in our workplace and have been a part of the business community’s response to this pandemic. Most states have seen about a 50% reduction in daily travel, and that is roughly the equivalent of the reduction in economic activity. So there are still a significant number of people going to work every day.

Of the approximately 48k deaths in the US, more than half have come in the downstate New York/New Jersey area. Huge flare ups which were expected in Florida, Illinois and Louisiana have been bad but nowhere near the extent of New York.

Most manufacturing locations have instituted mandatory mask use, temperature checks, social distancing, improved air circulation and increased cleaning (4-5 times per day). There have been very few instances of sustained community spread in any manufacturing location in the US, and most businesses attribute that to these improved measures.

Again, not an epidemiologist, but it does seem from the business side like we are getting a handle on how to prevent large scale community spread. I am sure Disney is learning the same lessons.

 

[WDWTrojan]

While I am not an epidemiologist, I am in the response team in our workplace and have been a part of the business community’s response to this pandemic. Most states have seen about a 50% reduction in daily travel, and that is roughly the equivalent of the reduction in economic activity. So there are still a significant number of people going to work every day.

Of the approximately 48k deaths in the US, more than half have come in the downstate New York/New Jersey area. Huge flare ups which were expected in Florida, Illinois and Louisiana have been bad but nowhere near the extent of New York.

Most manufacturing locations have instituted mandatory mask use, temperature checks, social distancing, improved air circulation and increased cleaning (4-5 times per day). There have been very few instances of sustained community spread in any manufacturing location in the US, and most businesses attribute that to these improved measures.

Again, not an epidemiologist, but it does seem from the business side like we are getting a handle on how to prevent large scale community spread. I am sure Disney is learning the same lessons.

NYC happened because they were high density and had the most # of cases coming in, then acted late. Many states, including the ones you mentioned, had municipalities acting faster than the states as a whole did. However, now that governors are taking it out of the hands of cities and just reopening willy nilly, you will likely (but hopefully not) see the kids of spikes you saw in NYC. It's sad but a realistic scenario.

Many manufacturers are, but we are still seeing massive outbreaks in factories.

Coronavirus at meatpacking plants worse than first thought, USA TODAY investigation finds

Coronavirus closed Smithfield and JBS meatpacking plants. Many more are at risk. Operators may have to choose between worker health or meat in stores.

www.usatoday.com

 

[easyrowrdw]

NYC happened because they were high density and had the most # of cases coming in, then acted late. Many states, including the ones you mentioned, had municipalities acting faster than the states as a whole did. However, now that governors are taking it out of the hands of cities and just reopening willy nilly, you will likely (but hopefully not) see the kids of spikes you saw in NYC. It's sad but a realistic scenario.

I don't think it's out of the hands of the municipalities. I believe many are keeping local restrictions in place even though the state restrictions are lifted.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

the employees of those movie theaters and bowling alleys will be a lot worse off when they close due to a lack of business or hospitalized due to COVID-19, rather than being closed to a government order.

without opening in a strategic, steady manner and without proper testing, we are going to see an even bigger spike than the first one, leading to another shutdown.

Yes, there will be some additional spikes (hopefully minimum) as things start to reopen. Remember, the lockdowns were never intended to eliminate the virus; only to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the hospitals.

The lockdowns themselves are having a negative effect on public health as well. I don’t want to see what sustained 30% unemployment will do to our depression and drug overdose figures.

 

[Jrb1979]

Yes, there will be some additional spikes (hopefully minimum) as things start to reopen. Remember, the lockdowns were never intended to eliminate the virus; only to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the hospitals.

The lockdowns themselves are having a negative effect on public health as well. I don’t want to see what sustained 30% unemployment will do to our depression and drug overdose figures.

Taking it slowly is the smart way to do it with physical distancing in place til this dies out like SARS or a treatment is available.

 

[celluloid]

They won’t call cast members back to work until about a week before reopening. It won’t take that long to get most things ready. Small
Crews are still there doing the minimum required. They’ve been planning social distancing measures since before they closed.

This is true, a tell tale sign will be the salaried managers and coordinators that do return will need to be back on payroll and called to work sooner as they will ha e to creat scheduels. You will see that first

 

[TraderSam]

I'm sure we're all in agreement that with Disney's service compass, Safety is always the first consideration. I chose June in the poll simply because of them allowing reservations, but they will easily push back the deadline to whatever date is considered acceptable by social standards rather than take the reputation risk. If "No clue" were an option in the survey, I would have chosen that with no hesitation. It's a complete crapshoot.

 

[Getachew]

Well things took a predictable turn...

 

[marni1971]

As someone said, outside of the greater NYC area, this virus has been a big nothing.

For posterity.

 

[IMDREW]

I'm a WDW annual Passholder from the Netherlands. Is there any chance they'd give me a refund or maybe change my pass from 2020 to 2021 if travel from Europe to US is not possible?

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

I'm a WDW annual Passholder from the Netherlands. Is there any chance they'd give me a refund or maybe change my pass from 2020 to 2021 if travel from Europe to US is not possible?

You should give them a call and see if they will work with you. Can’t hurt.

 

[Kamikaze]

DVC is a gigantic problem. Especially if the common belief here is that DVC owners will yield/give back in anyway.

DVC buyers signed a contract to support Disney no matter what...that doesn’t mean they’re a battalion of marines willing to storm a beachhead under heavy fire.

They’ll want their satisfaction and won’t budge. At least that was the consensus amongst 19 out of the 20 or so members I talk to regularly...I abstained - to be clear

DVC will not be “backseated” to “those paying for a deluxe room”.

The secret is DVC owners wised up to that racket decades ago and that’s why they bought

Sure Disney wants the big ticket, infrequent travelers back. But we’re in a recession/depression already and those people aren’t dependable enough. That’s why DVC exists in the first place. The general public will Stay home unless everything is perfect in their eyes...DVC won’t.

You're not mentioning that points can be banked. So they don't need to return any time soon and still get the same value (regardless of what anyone perceives that value as) from their DVC ownership.

 

[Mav]

I'm a WDW annual Passholder from the Netherlands. Is there any chance they'd give me a refund or maybe change my pass from 2020 to 2021 if travel from Europe to US is not possible?

I'm from Belgium and I'm in the same boat. I only got one visit out of my AP at the moment.
I had a trip planned in May and one in August. The first one has been cancelled and the second one is doubtful.
Due to work-related stuff I will not be able to arrange an alternative date before my AP expires.

 

[jpeden]

the gating criteria is the most critical! especially as lots of evidence continues to gather that COVID-19 can spread via air conditioners in businesses. Social distancing seems like it’s less and less important to reducing spread every day.

Air-conditioning spread the coronavirus to 9 people sitting near an infected person in a restaurant, researchers say. It has huge implications for the service industry.

As restaurants slowly reopen, they will likely have to reduce capacity, and patrons may have a limit on how long they can stay and eat.

www.businessinsider.com

Do you have a picture of the restaurant and air conditioner vent in question? Or know what volume and velocity of air was coming out of it? It makes a difference because a vent on a wall blowing right onto somebody is far different than normal air conditioning with vents far from the people. There aren't too many places where it feels like there is a breeze from the AC.

I'm not sure why that one story of "lots of evidence" makes the gating criteria more important. Also, I said that Georgia "may" be ignoring that because the Governor said that the daily new cases many times were actually new several days before due to the test to result lag. I don't know and haven't seen the data but it is possible that they have had a 14 day downward trend if you tie the result to the symptom onset.

Georgia actually is close to meeting the gating criteria. The way Georgia has been reporting cases hasn’t been described accurately. For example, while there were 1000 plus cases “confirmed” over last weekend, not all of those were really “new” cases. Most of them were backlogged test results from earlier in the month. So if 150 of those were tested on April 10th, they go on the April 10th stats and not the April 21st stats.

Based on data from the GA DPH we have seen a sustained seven day decline based on the rolling average.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You're not mentioning that points can be banked. So they don't need to return any time soon and still get the same value (regardless of what anyone perceives that value as) from their DVC ownership.

There’s a reason I’m not mentioning that:
Because banking actually makes the problem worse.

Everyone can bank and have access to up to 3 “years” of their contract at anytime...but the point system only works if a very high percentage of contracts are being used in their native years and everyone is NOT banking. That means a compete shutdown and over banking creates a lack of supply. Remember: they don’t sell contracts to rooms 1:1....it’s more like 30 to 1 or more...so each 100 rooms puts thousands of revolving contracts into the system.

They can’t lock it down for 3 months or more without the numbers starting to collapse on themselves...from day 1. They also will have people not being able to use their banked points for a long time due to no availability. Does Disney say “sorry; frequent traveler...you’ll have to sacrifice...while we entice people in masks back to PoP! with “free” Dining...”

Good luck with that.


Something has to be done because shutdown and non-usage wasn’t a condition of the mathematics used.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

There’s a reason I’m not mentioning that:
Because banking actually makes the problem worse.

Everyone can bank and have access to up to 3 “years” of their contract at anytime...but the point system only works if a very high percentage of contracts are being used in their native years and everyone is NOT banking. That means a compete shutdown and over banking creates a lack of supply. Remember: they don’t sell contracts to rooms 1:1....it’s more like 30 to 1 or more...so each 100 rooms puts thousands of revolving contracts into the system.

They can’t lock it down for 3 months or more without the numbers starting to collapse on themselves...from day 1. They also will have people not being able to use their banked points for a long time due to no availability. Does Disney say “sorry; frequent traveler...you’ll have to sacrifice...while we entice people in masks back to PoP! with “free” Dining...”

Good luck with that.


Something has to be done because shutdown and non-usage wasn’t a condition of the mathematics used.

You're correct that DVC has a big problem on their hands that gets worse with each passing day. Think about all of the stays that were booked on banked points that have been cancelled and the points have since expired... oops.

Theoretically there are several potential remedies that Disney and DVC can concede in the short-term to appease it's members, especially since occupancy outside of DVC inventory is likely going to be down for a while presumably, but it's possible that they are wading through the murky waters of timeshare law before they figure out what exactly they can and can't get away with.

 

[The Mom]

Anyone who makes any further political posts, or continues the "this is no worse than the flu/no, it's the worst thing ever" argument, will be banned from further responses.

Thank you.