WDW Reopening Estimates

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You're correct that DVC has a big problem on their hands that gets worse with each passing day. Think about all of the stays that were booked on banked points that have been cancelled and the points have since expired... oops.

Theoretically there are several potential remedies that Disney and DVC can concede in the short-term to appease it's members, especially since occupancy outside of DVC inventory is likely going to be down for a while presumably, but it's possible that they are wading through the murky waters of timeshare law before they figure out what exactly they can and can't get away with.

I think their worst case scenario is demand is HIGH...which I have a feeling it will be. It’s not that many DVC won’t say “pass” with a reduced quality of offering if things aren’t open or are severely modified...it’s just that there are way too many fish in the pool. That’s the reason they sold the contracts in the first place. Guaranteed volume.

I would think their priority is to get as many DVC owners to burn through points as fast as they can...which would mean using the regular rooms to do so...

Which is about 8 cans of worms. There are quality and service differences...there are consumption pattern differences...as you point out - there are legal/contract blocks. For Disney to put a DVC person in a rack room, there’s a “exchange”/translation issue. A DVC is declared for sale under state law...a rack room is regulated differently...it’s not that simple.

It’s a really big deal. They never planned for a major shutdown. It was never thought of in the late 80s/early 90s when it was conceived. And remember Iger went nuts...did not build a single hotel in the US parks during us tenure...but went DVC nyutszo...

A 36 hour closing for a hurricane once every 10 years doesn’t exactly “cover” this.

Very interesting operational challenge - for wdw at least.

 

[Hawg G]

Is there much oversell of DVC? I can’t imagine too many of tmhe points get eaten as they can be sold as a last resort. I would assume total points pretty much equals rooms available, so if all of a sudden no points are spent for 3 months, those points will be there forever. Being rolled over in perpetuity.

I guess if they can talk people in to taking lower quality rooms, and take one for the Covid team, they
will do it. And throw in a free Dole whip as a gift.

 

[spock8113]

The Disney Organization is worldwide, it is also not stupid. They listen to the right people at their corporate level and the public doctors as well. The legitimate fear of a fall re-occurrence along with the seasonal flu is weighing heavy on their minds. So I would agree with some that 2021 is more realistic, tragic, but realistic. Fortunately, the Disney Organization doesn't have to rely on government disorganization or have the luxury of viewing it through rose-colored glasses. Also unlike the government, Disney will do what is right for the guests even if it outweighs their own troubles. You can't have healthy theme parks without healthy theme park people.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Disney is a public company with legally bound shareholder value protection requirements. If it's not about the money, then they should be a not-for-profit organization.

Just saying...

Absolutely correct! The most important thing to The Walt Disney Company is the stock price and is shareholders. The guest experience especially at its theme parks is WAY DOWN on the priority list!

 

[Kamikaze]

There’s a reason I’m not mentioning that:
Because banking actually makes the problem worse.

Everyone can bank and have access to up to 3 “years” of their contract at anytime...but the point system only works if a very high percentage of contracts are being used in their native years and everyone is NOT banking. That means a compete shutdown and over banking creates a lack of supply. Remember: they don’t sell contracts to rooms 1:1....it’s more like 30 to 1 or more...so each 100 rooms puts thousands of revolving contracts into the system.

They can’t lock it down for 3 months or more without the numbers starting to collapse on themselves...from day 1. They also will have people not being able to use their banked points for a long time due to no availability. Does Disney say “sorry; frequent traveler...you’ll have to sacrifice...while we entice people in masks back to PoP! with “free” Dining...”

Good luck with that.


Something has to be done because shutdown and non-usage wasn’t a condition of the mathematics used.

They can simply extend the bankable period for a couple of more years as a one time thing to allow people to spread their points out further.

 

[david10225]

Apples and Oranges I know, but for a point of reference, the way Marriott Vacation Club (points) decided (for now) was to allow for cancellations up to but not including the day arrival. Those points then can be used to book a close in reservation (normally 60 days, but now 120 days) all the way through 12/31/2021. Doesn't explain where all those rooms are coming from in 2021 if tons of people do this however. One factor might be there are a bunch of MVC resorts that have off seasons where rooms are usually available so I guess if you can't go to Orlando you can always go the Branson in the middle of the winter

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They can simply extend the bankable period for a couple of more years as a one time thing to allow people to spread their points out further.

That is “possible”...but it actually Isn’t allowed in the contracts as is.

Maneuvering is required.

But that doesn’t alleviate what DVC is: a high priced contract where Disney guarantees a minimum level of frequency and access. That’s what both sides wanted.

Telling people they can bank for two extra years doesn’t address this...in fact it makes the problem stretch out a lot longer.

I don’t know the answers. I do know it’s a problem.

But my PSA is addressed to some of the comments that suggest DVC will have to “sacrifice” but regular customers will have open access...

No, no...the line will start immediately behind DVC. Not in front of it.

It’s just a reflection of market dynamics.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is there much oversell of DVC? I can’t imagine too many of tmhe points get eaten as they can be sold as a last resort. I would assume total points pretty much equals rooms available, so if all of a sudden no points are spent for 3 months, those points will be there forever. Being rolled over in perpetuity.

I guess if they can talk people in to taking lower quality rooms, and take one for the Covid team, they
will do it. And throw in a free Dole whip as a gift.

It’s not that they mathematically “oversell” it...it’s that every single point ls listed, sold and accounted for on maintenance and tax is sold for 365 days a year...which means the natural usage per night will accordion a little...slightly...

But even if they opened May 15...which they won’t ...that’s 60 nights of 100% drop in points used. And those points now exceeded the supply going forward...that surplus can only be equalized slowly overtime...meaning the problem keeps going.

Ironically...they need to “flatten the curve”

The easiest would be just to cancel the 2019 or 2020 use year point banks.

...might be a problem or two with plan though...

 

[IMDREW]

I'm from Belgium and I'm in the same boat. I only got one visit out of my AP at the moment.
I had a trip planned in May and one in August. The first one has been cancelled and the second one is doubtful.
Due to work-related stuff I will not be able to arrange an alternative date before my AP expires.

Ive got one more trip for july planned but it’s looking bleaker by the day. I’m gonna try vip support. Please let me know if you get anywhere with guest service!

 

[FigmentFan82]

It’s not that they mathematically “oversell” it...it’s that every single point ls listed, sold and accounted for on maintenance and tax is sold for 365 days a year...which means the natural usage per night will accordion a little...slightly...

But even if they opened May 15...which they won’t ...that’s 60 nights of 100% drop in points used. And those points now exceeded the supply going forward...that surplus can only be equalized slowly overtime...meaning the problem keeps going.

Ironically...they need to “flatten the curve”

The easiest would be just to cancel the 2019 or 2020 use year point banks.

...might be a problem or two with plan though...

Honest question, even though DVC has contracts, couldn't Disney basically just be like "Yeah, sorry your points are gone, nothing we can do about it"
I feel like big companies change verbage in contracts a lot to benefit themselves we the little guy are always just SOL

 

[worldfanatic]

Honest question, even though DVC has contracts, couldn't Disney basically just be like "Yeah, sorry your points are gone, nothing we can do about it"
I feel like big companies change verbage in contracts a lot to benefit themselves we the little guy are always just SOL

They certainly can do that. It would definitely solve the huge problem of Villa availability in the future.
But that decision would have to be weighed against alienating & disappointing many of their most loyal & reliable customers.
It's a really tough pickle Disney's in. And every day those Resorts are closed, it gets bigger.
My guess is they will do something to cushion the blow for those who might lose expired points.
But probably not as much as some will incorrectly think they deserve.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

Honest question, even though DVC has contracts, couldn't Disney basically just be like "Yeah, sorry your points are gone, nothing we can do about it"
I feel like big companies change verbage in contracts a lot to benefit themselves we the little guy are always just SOL

That's actually the path that holds DVC members to their contracts. It would be pretty unfair and crummy for them to do that, but they don't have to change anything in the contract currently to say "welp, sorry. You're SOL." There is no pandemic clause unfortunately.

They don't really have any power to alter the pre existing contracts. DVC tried to get one over on it's members a couple years ago with the point charts, but a group of members called them out on it and threatened legal action, which led to Disney retracting their already announced point charts and reverting to the previous year's. A contract is a contract.. you can't unilaterally change it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Honest question, even though DVC has contracts, couldn't Disney basically just be like "Yeah, sorry your points are gone, nothing we can do about it"
I feel like big companies change verbage in contracts a lot to benefit themselves we the little guy are always just SOL

They certainly could...those contracts are written in the “Wild West” of Florida...

But...big But....there are significant long term consequences.

They certainly can do that. It would definitely solve the huge problem of Villa availability in the future.
But that decision would have to be weighed against alienating & disappointing many of their most loyal & reliable customers.
It's a really tough pickle Disney's in. And every day those Resorts are closed, it gets bigger.
My guess is they will do something to cushion the blow for those who might lose expired points.
But probably not as much as some will incorrectly think they deserve.

There isn’t anyone who “incorrectly deserves it”...that’s the problem. It’s all contracted on a standard set of rules...the maintenance fees make it complicated too. Don’t forget: DVC members are always actively “paying”...every day from the first to the last of the contract.

Other than that...I agree with you

That's actually the path that holds DVC members to their contracts. It would be pretty unfair and crummy for them to do that, but they don't have to change anything in the contract currently to say "welp, sorry. You're SOL." There is no pandemic clause unfortunately.

They don't really have any power to alter the pre existing contracts. DVC tried to get one over on it's members a couple years ago with the point charts, but a group of members called them out on it and threatened legal action, which led to Disney retracting their already announced point charts and reverting to the previous year's. A contract is a contract.. you can't unilaterally change it.

A cancellation of points would get a similar response...and threaten future contract sales.

I would guess disney is more likely to over compensate than screw its members...

Maybe incentives to delay or foreit points...

...I’m listening??

 

[WDWTrojan]

The Disney Organization is worldwide, it is also not stupid. They listen to the right people at their corporate level and the public doctors as well. The legitimate fear of a fall re-occurrence along with the seasonal flu is weighing heavy on their minds. So I would agree with some that 2021 is more realistic, tragic, but realistic. Fortunately, the Disney Organization doesn't have to rely on government disorganization or have the luxury of viewing it through rose-colored glasses. Also unlike the government, Disney will do what is right for the guests even if it outweighs their own troubles. You can't have healthy theme parks without healthy theme park people.

100% Disney has access to the top experts in the field. They don't want to reopen just to close again in a month or two. Even worse, reopen and have an outbreak on property which leads terrible press and will damage their brand far worse than remaining closed a few more months.

 

[DeletedAccount55555]

I will add the fact they took June reservations and rebookings is another sign they thought they were reopening soon. Now that they probably not opening June 1st and definitely not with everything open they should start telling those people. There is going to be a lot of people upset.

My opinion would be they had to pick SOME date to allow new reservations, and June 1 seemed perfectly reasonable a few weeks ago. Travel agents were probably very happy to have something to book. If they have to cancel some of those trips, so be it.

The stock analysts are thinking 2021. I think that's wrong but the government may get in the way.

ONE stock analyst said that. Sure, it drew a bunch of headlines, but that was probably by design.

I don't think I'm making a political statement here, but I can't envision Gov. DeSantis accepting Disney World staying closed until 2021.

 

[WDWTrojan]

My opinion would be they had to pick SOME date to allow new reservations, and June 1 seemed perfectly reasonable a few weeks ago. Travel agents were probably very happy to have something to book. If they have to cancel some of those trips, so be it.



ONE stock analyst said that. Sure, it drew a bunch of headlines, but that was probably by design.

I don't think I'm making a political statement here, but I can't envision Gov. DeSantis accepting Disney World staying closed until 2021.

He doesn't really have a choice. If Disney wants to stay closed based on their own decision making, that's their call. They closed well before the state wanted them to.

 

[Disstevefan1]

He doesn't really have a choice. If Disney wants to stay closed based on their own decision making, that's their call. They closed well before the state wanted them to.

Very true, Disney will tell Florida when they will open WDW period. Also Disney does not want WDW to stay closed a moment longer then need be!

 

[ChrisRobin124]

100% Disney has access to the top experts in the field. They don't want to reopen just to close again in a month or two. Even worse, reopen and have an outbreak on property which leads terrible press and will damage their brand far worse than remaining closed a few more months.

They certainly could...those contracts are written in the “Wild West” of Florida...

But...big But....there are significant long term consequences.

There isn’t anyone who “incorrectly deserves it”...that’s the problem. It’s all contracted on a standard set of rules...the maintenance fees make it complicated too. Don’t forget: DVC members are always actively “paying”...every day from the first to the last of the contract.

Other than that...I agree with you

A cancellation of points would get a similar response...and threaten future contract sales.

I would guess disney is more likely to over compensate than screw its members...

Maybe incentives to delay or foreit points...

...I’m listening??

I think they should just give the dues back for the points lost in the form of a Disney gift card. It would eliminate future point load issues and encourage people to get back to the parks and use the gift cards as things improve. I say this as someone losing 200+ points if I don't go on my trip in September.

 

[nickys]

There’s a reason I’m not mentioning that:
Because banking actually makes the problem worse.

Everyone can bank and have access to up to 3 “years” of their contract at anytime...but the point system only works if a very high percentage of contracts are being used in their native years and everyone is NOT banking. That means a compete shutdown and over banking creates a lack of supply. Remember: they don’t sell contracts to rooms 1:1....it’s more like 30 to 1 or more...so each 100 rooms puts thousands of revolving contracts into the system.

They can’t lock it down for 3 months or more without the numbers starting to collapse on themselves...from day 1. They also will have people not being able to use their banked points for a long time due to no availability. Does Disney say “sorry; frequent traveler...you’ll have to sacrifice...while we entice people in masks back to PoP! with “free” Dining...”

Good luck with that.


Something has to be done because shutdown and non-usage wasn’t a condition of the mathematics used.

Plus people are already losing points as reservations are cancelled and the banking window has past. Not to mention those that have used banked points to make a reservation which they will not be able to use, whether through future cancellations or being unable to get to WDW because of travel restrictions.

Not that they have to do anything about lost points; many timeshares have a “tough luck” policy on missed weeks. However we don’t yet know what, if anything, DVC can / will do.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Plus people are already losing points as reservations are cancelled and the banking window has past. Not to mention those that have used banked points to make a reservation which they will not be able to use, whether through future cancellations or being unable to get to WDW because of travel restrictions.

Not that they have to do anything about lost points; many timeshares have a “tough luck” policy on missed weeks. However we don’t yet know what, if anything, DVC can / will do.

I agree...

The difference is Disney may be the least likely timeshare on earth to invoke “tough luck”...
Longterm repercussions.

You can’t sell yourself as an elite, one of a kind timeshare (they even reject the term) and then send “sorry” letters like vistana.