WDW Reopening Estimates

[Getachew]

I still think early July, but the lack of cancellations for the first week of June so far is interesting. The last few weeks, Disney had started cancellations on Wednesday. People were expecting that to occur around 4-5PM yesterday, but so far nothing. Another quirk is that some people with June reservations are starting to see their magic bands being processed for their resort stay. And finally, all fast pass+ selections that people made for June/July disappeared last night for an hour. That could mean either they were working on the system to prepare for an eventual opening, or just your regular Disney glitch (glitch more likely of the two).

Now it's possible they are waiting for Desantis to announce phase 2 this week. It could also mean they are looking to open up resorts but not the parks, like Shanghai. It is also possible that they just randomly decided to break from the past month or so of when they start sending out cancellations.

Apparently theres been cancellations now

 

[marni1971]

......or maybe they are planning for limited openings of the parks in June

Or maybe not.

 

[GoofGoof]

I was booked for April 19th, then told I could reschedule the June 1st and get a free dining plan because of all the inconvenience yada yada yada. Now I'm being told I will have to reschedule again because June 1st doesn't look so good right now and the kicker is there taking the dining plan away from us. Oh and another thing, when we rescheduled to June 1st I had to pay an additional $220 because I was told the room rates went up. So now they're saying I have to rebook more than likely and there is no offers for the coronavirus closure customers.

It’s a tough situation. They should offer you something. The free dining offer was a bad idea to start with. At the time they rolled that out they had no idea one of the pillars of re-opening restaurants around the country would be a significant reduction in restaurant capacity. So when WDW does reopen the restaurants will all be spacing tables 6 feet apart and have some level of significant reduced capacity (likely 50% of normal). The many buffets which are people eaters will need to be reworked or closed. If a large number of guests have free dining plans they are all naturally going to want ADRs at table service restaurants. As it is in normal times many of the popular restaurants book up 6 months in advance in July and August. Cut capacity to 50% and half the people who currently have ADRs are going to be notified their reservation is cancelled. Some may cancel on their own because they are canceling their trip, but it still will be a nightmare to figure out the logistics of how this works. Whose reservation gets cancelled, what do they get if anything in compensation. The last thing Disney should do now is pile on more people with free dining who will be disappointed they can’t get any ADRs. Gift cards or room discounts would be a better option.

 

[GoofGoof]

Cancellations through June 6th have gone out this morning.

Following the laid out plan of doing the cancellations one week at a time. Makes sense to not cause a huge backup with phone operators trying to reschedule people or process refunds.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Have to give it a shot and see if they can make it work. Great test to see if people can follow the protocols.

Yes, great test. God bless the guinea pigs who go before me.

 

[Parker in NYC]

So, with all the news of Springs re-opening, and some cast members being called back, anyone with any changes in predictions for the parks?

Nope, liberal estimate remains September. Conservative estimate February. But they won't last that long! Still, it's a new world and old rules no longer apply.

 

[GoofGoof]

Nope, liberal estimate remains September. Conservative estimate February. But they won't last that long! Still, it's a new world and old rules no longer apply.

I would say liberal estimate is July/Aug with later into the fall being the conservative one. That could all change if there is a spike in cases in the next few months. At this point I’d say May and June look like just wishful thinking.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I would say liberal estimate is July/Aug with later into the fall being the conservative one. That could all change if there is a spike in cases in the next few months. At this point I’d say May and June look like just wishful thinking.

I've thought May and June were wishful thinking many points ago but I've never really considered myself all that mainstream. I truly hope I'm wrong but I feel like my estimation has more to do with the country reopening (including major hotspots) rather than WDW itself leading the charge (in terms of its size and operations).

 

[Angelo721]

My daughter has attended the AAU volleyball Event in June for the past 7 years. These girls are all top athletes. Plus, it seems like kids are less vulnerable to COCVID.

Consensus Is Emerging That Children Are Less Vulnerable to Coronavirus

Doctors are increasingly confident that children are less affected by the new coronavirus than adults, a finding that could aid governments considering next steps in reopening economies.

www.wsj.com

Why Children Seem to Be Less Affected by COVID-19

The data is still sparse, but it seems to suggest that children might have milder cases of COVID-19 infection.

time.com

The Florida Governor was on Fox this morning and said that testing is up and positive results are down 14%.

But if you have an underlying conditions, then stay home. Why do we all have to suffer for a few. We all need to realize that we are going to open no matter what we debate here. And again, as a nation we are divided. The stay at home people vs the open up people. It is madness.

 

[hopemax]

I go back and forth about what I think will happen. I do think a strong 2nd wave will happen, so that the parks will be closed through most of the winter. Still just too many people out there that haven't been sick, and many with comorbities living in FL. But I don't know if they want to try to salvage some sort of summer July-September, even though the weather will be oppressive. Since Disney is getting access to more money, I am slightly leaning toward them just staying closed. Focus the company on trying to get studio production up and running, hope live sports is able to start. Less people to try and manage than the thousands a day at a theme park, coming and going from who knows where.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I go back and forth about what I think will happen. I do think a strong 2nd wave will happen, so that the parks will be closed through most of the winter. Still just too many people out there that haven't been sick, and many with comorbities living in FL. But I don't know if they want to try to salvage some sort of summer July-September, even though the weather will be oppressive. Since Disney is getting access to more money, I am slightly leaning toward them just staying closed. Focus the company on trying to get studio production up and running, hope live sports is able to start. Less people to try and manage than the thousands a day at a theme park, coming and going from who knows where.

I think a bad second wave is unavoidable simply because humans will be humans, and Americans, especially, seem to enjoy having a false sense of bravado...even if it comes at great cost.

 

[raymusiccity]

Sorry but this has been debunked time and time again. The CDC has clear and concise guidelines of when someone dies from COVID or not and it must be a contributing factor. If the 102 year old grandmother you speak of got hit by a car, she’d die from the car accident not from whatever conditions she had prior. Same here.

Please stop spreading false rumors and conspiracy theories.

Here is a great, well-sourced argument that breaks this down:

Social Media Posts Make Baseless Claim on COVID-19 Death Toll - FactCheck.org

Viral posts wrongly suggest that the COVID-19 death toll is exaggerated because "the state" has instructed that "anyone who didnt die by a gun shot wound or car accident" be listed as a coronavirus victim. Experts say there is no such default classification -- and that the U.S. death count is...

www.factcheck.org

As Mark Twain has been quoted: There are lies, damn lies,...and statistics!

 

[brianstl]

I think a bad second wave is unavoidable simply because humans will be humans, and Americans, especially, seem to enjoy having a false sense of bravado...even if it comes at great cost.

A second, third and fourth wave are unavoidable because the virus has so many asymptotic carriers and spreads easily when people come together indoors. It has nothing to do with us being Americans. The virus is are future.

 

[brianstl]

Nope, liberal estimate remains September. Conservative estimate February. But they won't last that long! Still, it's a new world and old rules no longer apply.

They plan to be open before July 24. If they think they can open Mulan in theaters that day they think WDW will have been opened a while before that.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

A second, third and fourth wave are unavoidable because the virus has so many asymptotic carriers and spreads easily when people come together indoors. It has nothing to do with us being Americans. The virus is are future.

Americans are, in general, very entitled and impatient people. If you choose not to acknowledge the behavior that's been all over the news that's up to you...but the second wave will be more severe because people are choosing to believe what lines up with what they want, rather than what is based in science.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

My daughter has attended the AAU volleyball Event in June for the past 7 years. These girls are all top athletes. Plus, it seems like kids are less vulnerable to COCVID.

Consensus Is Emerging That Children Are Less Vulnerable to Coronavirus

Doctors are increasingly confident that children are less affected by the new coronavirus than adults, a finding that could aid governments considering next steps in reopening economies.

www.wsj.com

Why Children Seem to Be Less Affected by COVID-19

The data is still sparse, but it seems to suggest that children might have milder cases of COVID-19 infection.

time.com

The Florida Governor was on Fox this morning and said that testing is up and positive results are down 14%.

But if you have an underlying conditions, then stay home. Why do we all have to suffer for a few. We all need to realize that we are going to open no matter what we debate here. And again, as a nation we are divided. The stay at home people vs the open up people. It is madness.

Funny you mentioned the kids. I looked at the CDC website today and saw that out of the entire US there of been 12 Covid 19 deaths for kids 14 or under. 12 seems low based on what I'm hearing, but I checked and even got a screen shot. And they don't mention any underlying issues, but smart money is on those unfortunate 12 having them. This isn't an opinion post so keep it if you're triggered. It's simply regurgitating a stat.

 

[MagicWDI]

I'm still firm on my July estimate with a very slow rollout. It's going to be tricky because there are most likely more reservations booked than what the new capacity cap will be. They will have to announce it early to allow those with hotel reservations to book their specific dates for the parks they want to visit up until capacity it reaches for that day. I have a feeling those with reservations may not be able to make it into the parks.

If Disney plans to have these measures in place for the next few months they surly have to modify their reservations for those months as well.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I'm still firm on my July estimate with a very slow rollout. It's going to be tricky because there are most likely more reservations booked than what the new capacity cap will be. They will have to announce it early to allow those with hotel reservations to book their specific dates for the parks they want to visit up until capacity it reaches for that day. I have a feeling those with reservations may not be able to make it into the parks.

If Disney plans to have these measures in place for the next few months they surly have to modify their reservations for those months as well.

Yeah me too. The whole world is going that way at light speed it seems.

 

[brianstl]

‘Murkah

Epidemiological science. We won’t have a vaccine for probably years and you don’t stay permanently immune to Coronaviruses. So herd immunity and a vaccine won’t eliminate the virus. It is going to keep coming back in waves. The virus isn’t going anywhere. Hopefully after people are exposed to the virus a first time the repeating waves will be lass severe as their immune system knows how to better fight it or it mutates to a less severe strain.

 

[Epcotbob]

I'm sticking with sometime in June for limited openings.

I know, I know...I'm contrary to all the experts and highly revered insiders on this board, but what the heck......It's not like I have any money on it. Besides, then y'all can come back and laugh me to scorn if (when?) I'm wrong.