WDW Reopening Estimates

[DeletedAccount55555]

I think we should all be honest about what we don't know. And none of us know what the situation will be in June or later in the year that would affect if and how the parks can operate. That includes the so-called insiders.

 

[fgmnt]

My thoughts:

1. Disney Springs/ESPN will open in mid - late June
2. Magic Kingdom + Area resorts will accept guests starting late June - Early July (either open before the 4th or after the 4th)
   1. MK hours might be 9 AM - 8 PM (No shows for atleast a month, they may even do firework shows that are not centered around the hub (Fantasy in the sky)
3. DHS/AK will open mid - late July
   1. DHS hours might be 9 AM - 7 PM (No F!, No Firework shows)
   2. AK hours might be from 9 AM - 6 PM (No ROL)
4. EPCOT may open in August / September One way to get people to come to EPCOT is food and wine, but a big scale back.
   1. EPCOT hours might be 10 AM - 7 PM With world showcase opening at 11 PM.
5. Not all resorts will open some will stay vacant until demand dictates it to come back. No need to have a fully staffed resort with no guests staying there. Same goes for the Mini golf courses.
6. Blizzard Beach might open in February 2021 with Typhoon lagoon opening mid-late March 2021.

The only way they can be successful at reopening the parks is to do it over a 4-10 month period. They basically turned off their supply chains for resources (Think the culture programs, CPs, Food & Bev, Fireworks) and it will take time to start them back up. Another thing to note, there might be new policies (that come from the CDC or any form of government) in place that require training and could delay the opening.

Irrespective of the months you attached, I think it is important to understand that whatever happens, it's in the best interest of the company, the the state of Florida, the entire theme park industry, and even beyond, to have the TWDC domestic parks execute a phased rollout plan. I think the best place for them to start with a ticketing base is to only allow AP holders in for a couple weeks to MK or AK, then open the resorts and allow only onsite guests and AP holders into the parks. Sure, you're talking about letting your lowest revenue guests back in the gates first, but the company is already forgoing payment on month to month AP plans and losing out on any potential renewals or new purchases of said tickets. It's also going to be a virtually 100% in state populace. Ideally (IDEALLY!!!) it's also a populace that will be more patient with the massive changes in the status quo to operations (no theater shows, halving capacity at all restaurants, significant expansion of boarding group queuing).

A few weeks ago I thought of the idea of closing Epcot separate from the rest of the resort was ludicrous. With the intentionally depleted staffing, the size of the park, and the outstanding construction at the park, closing it through the summer actually makes some sense to me. I do expect a number of the resorts to stay offline through the end of the year (absolutely insane, talking about closing Disney resorts through Christmas!) I believe Port Orleans was closed after 9/11, so that and the All-Stars could remotely conceivably stay closed through Summer 2021.

The biggest factor, and the one that is impossible to predict right now, is when and how can the crowds come back? This is a good time to have a company full of bean counters to game that out for the resorts. I can't imagine what that looks like.

 

[BWDVCkidsince96]

My guess is as unreliable as anyone's, but thoughts are reopening takes place in following order:


June
1. Springs
2. Deluxe/DVC
July
3. Magic Kingdom
4. DHS
August
5. Moderate resorts
September
6. Value resorts
October
7. Animal Kingdom
December
8. Epcot
February 2021
9.Water Parks

why would AK in particular be so late ? Given that it doesn’t have a fireworks show or as many of the crowding concerns as the others, in particular HS right now with the Star Wars craziness and everything.... they could easily cancel rivers of light for awhile without anyone being devastated and open AK before any others really. Just wondering the logic about delaying AK

 

[peter11435]

why would AK in particular be so late ? Given that it doesn’t have a fireworks show or as many of the crowding concerns as the others, in particular HS right now with the Star Wars craziness and everything.... they could easily cancel rivers of light for awhile without anyone being devastated and open AK before any others really. Just wondering the logic about delaying AK

Considering AK has the huge operational cost of maintaining and feeding the animals even while it is closed I think it will be one of the first parks to reopen.

 

[CastAStone]

Possible...but the soonest lease expires in 22 year sand a lot 30-50...

The other option is to allocate non-dvc rooms to clear the backlog.

No one is gonna like it - other Than DVC - but that makes a lot of sense due. Time to pay the hundreds of thousands of pipers.

Old key west, beach, Boardwalk, the original wilderness lodge, Hilton head and vero beach expire in 2042

They’re owners, not guests. The appropriate action is for all of them to lose a number of points for a year in proportion to the length of the closure. That’s how owning something works. Voila, no backlog.

Cant wait to see how that thought goes over.

Considering AK has the huge operational cost of maintaining and feeding the animals even while it is closed I think it will be one of the first parks to reopen.

I could imagine opening AK sometime late spring as just a zoo; $20 admission, free parking, no tram or train, regular food/bev/merch prices, all restaurants counter service and eat on the go, no shows or rides. I’d bet they’d lose less money doing that than what’s happing there now.

 

[CastAStone]

PS OKW expires in 2057; most owners have legal paperwork promising to give their interests back to DVC in 2042. A little different than what’s gonna happen at say Beach Club.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They’re owners, not guests. The appropriate action is for all of them to lose a number of points for a year in proportion to the length of the closure. That’s how owning something works. Voila, no backlog.

Cant wait to see how that thought goes over.

I could imagine opening AK sometime late spring as just a zoo; $20 admission, free parking, no tram or train, regular food/bev/merch prices, all restaurants counter service and eat on the go, no shows or rides. I’d bet they’d lose less money doing that than what’s happing there now.

PS OKW expires in 2057; most owners have legal paperwork promising to give their interests back to DVC in 2042. A little different than what’s gonna happen at say Beach Club.

Do we need to go back to dvc 101? I think we do...

1. Okw contract expiration term is 2042. About 10 or so years ago, they offered an extension of 15 years at a price to the original buyers...but it was OPTIONAL. SOME took it. It was also kinda disaster and they haven’t revisited it since or offered it anywhere else. Choosing to re-evaluate what they would do...later as they have contracts and fees ending on 50 year old properties all at once...that’s 20 years out.

2. DVC is “vacation ownership”...not real estate ownership. A person - like me - drops a wad of cash on a desk at Their lovely sales center and they give me a flexible bank of exchangeable points each year for a set time. So then I get an “ownership interest” for...I dunno...4% of block 27A at Saratoga till...say...the year 2054. And I pay “modest” annual fees for property maintenance.

So under that premise...I’ve bought or more accurately “rented” the time. Which means I’m entitled to some use of that time. So “forfeiting” that time not of my choosing is not in the fine print. And everyone loves a good class action suit.

3. So these things being known...if it comes down to a choice of preference between “dvc” and “everyone else”...guess who has the high ground?


Just a few deets, slugger.

This link describes what they tried to do at old key west...they rearranged the contract language...but essentially you paid for the extension or you get the original end date...your understanding of the legalese is incorrect...it’s not applied to the other 90% of dvc units at all...as it stands.

Redirect Notice

 

[Getachew]

They’re owners, not guests. The appropriate action is for all of them to lose a number of points for a year in proportion to the length of the closure. That’s how owning something works. Voila, no backlog.

Cant wait to see how that thought goes over.

I could imagine opening AK sometime late spring as just a zoo; $20 admission, free parking, no tram or train, regular food/bev/merch prices, all restaurants counter service and eat on the go, no shows or rides. I’d bet they’d lose less money doing that than what’s happing there now.

yikes. That would suck.

 

[UNCgolf]

Considering AK has the huge operational cost of maintaining and feeding the animals even while it is closed I think it will be one of the first parks to reopen.

Was going to say the exact same thing. That's also the one thing that makes me wonder about EPCOT -- although it's certainly not on the level of AK, they do still have ongoing operational expenses at both the Seas and the Land (I'm sure the cost at the Seas is much much higher than the Land, but I doubt they are just letting the greenhouses go).

 

[peter11435]

Was going to say the exact same thing. That's also the one thing that makes me wonder about EPCOT -- although it's certainly not on the level of AK, they do still have ongoing operational expenses at both the Seas and the Land (I'm sure the cost at the Seas is much much higher).

Something makes me think theres not a ton of ongoing expense taking place at the land. I bet it’s starting to look like jumanji in there already

 

[UNCgolf]

Something makes me think therea not a ton of ongoing expense taking place at the land. I bet it’s starting to look like jumanji in there already

I wondered about that, but depending on how long things are closed, there's a decent chance it would cost more money to get those greenhouses up and running again than it would to just keep maintaining them now. They also do some research there, and they probably wouldn't want to just give up on whatever research projects are currently ongoing.

 

[peter11435]

I wondered about that, but depending on how long things are closed, there's a decent chance it would cost more money to get those greenhouses up and running again than it would to just keep maintaining them now. They also do some research there, and they probably wouldn't want to just give up on whatever research projects are currently ongoing.

You’re not wrong. But the company doesn’t always view things like that. Save a dollar today at the expense of two tomorrow.

Also the cast majority of the greenhouse cast and research staff are interns that were likely sent home.

 

[UNCgolf]

You’re not wrong. But the company doesn’t always view things like that. Save a dollar today at the expense of two tomorrow.

Also the cast majority of the greenhouse cast and research staff are interns that were likely sent home.

Isn't some of the research done in conjunction with the Department of Agriculture, though? I would think they'd run the risk of losing that connection/any funding they get from it if they just cut bait on any ongoing research projects.

But maybe not.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Was going to say the exact same thing. That's also the one thing that makes me wonder about EPCOT -- although it's certainly not on the level of AK, they do still have ongoing operational expenses at both the Seas and the Land (I'm sure the cost at the Seas is much much higher than the Land, but I doubt they are just letting the greenhouses go).

I believe the greenhouse are run by the US FDA and department of agriculture...

But your point is taken. I have a feeling the seas has some research grant money in there somewhere too.

 

[CastAStone]

Do we need to go back to dvc 101? I think we do...

1. Okw contract expiration term is 2042. About 10 or so years ago, they offered an extension of 15 years at a price to the original buyers...but it was OPTIONAL. SOME took it. It was also kinda disaster and they haven’t revisited it since or offered it anywhere else. Choosing to re-evaluate what they would do...later as they have contracts and fees ending on 50 year old properties all at once...that’s 20 years out.

This link describes what they tried to do at old key west...they rearranged the contract language...but essentially you paid for the extension or you get the original end date...your understanding of the legalese is incorrect...it’s not applied to the other 90% of dvc units at all...as it stands.

Redirect Notice

Then why did every OKW owner who declined the extension payment have to sign a quit Claim? They flipped it - OKW expires in 2057 but most people are giving their deeds back in 2042. See, for example:

Honestly I have nothing more to add to this other than no one knows.

First of all, the deal with OKW was not that you got an offer to extend as much as you got an offer to decline the extension. So if you signed a quitclaim deed (or the person you bought it from) your points expire in 2042 just like the other 2042 resorts. OKW technically now ends at 2057. That's how it is written up. So if you did not sign the quitclaim deed or you bought direct after the whole fiasco, you automatically get the 2057 end date, because that is how OKW is written up. That was their mistake with all of this. OKW will now go past the 2042 end date.

As for fees, those who have the 2042 agreement, they will not pay into some of the future fees for a while. The legality of stuff that I don't know/understand is can they say to the remainder "There are now only 1 million out of the original almost 7.7 million points so you change the percentage you pay" That I don't know about and I'm not sure everyone does know what will happen. Also as mentioned my contract mentions building 46 if I remember correctly. So you are tied to an actual building and we happen to be middle of the road with the number. My guess at OKW is that they will do a big refurbishment and resell to new people who will front that cost for them. Whether or not they offer a deal to previous owners, I won't guess.

I can guarantee this, they will not make the same mistake twice with the extension. If they offer anything it will be an opt IN not opt OUT as was previously done. They really screwed themselves with that. They also angered people. You cannot force people to agree to pay because Disney wants to change the terms - which they did. There were many who opted to do nothing and will ride it out in the end and see where it goes.

I'm in that camp accidentally. My guide lost our paperwork. We had to get it notarized and everything and sent it in properly. It's gone. No record of us signing the quitclaim deed. So technically we have a 2057 date since that is when OKW ends, but we didn't pay. I sort of want to see how things shake out in the next decade or so with it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Then why did every OKW owner who declined the extension payment have to sign a quit Claim? They flipped it - OKW expires in 2057 but most people are giving their deeds back in 2042. See, for example:

The original contracts all had a 2042 expiration date

When they did the OPTIONAL extensions...they flipped the existing contract language to honor that end date while allowing a $15 per point extension (2007-2009 offer) to those interested in the 15 year extension...as an experiment. They didn’t like it (DDC) for a number of reasons and we have not heard a peep since. No one is “yielding” anything except in the semantics sense. Those that said “yes” get 15 additional for a fee...those that said “no”walk away on the exact day it said when they bought in the early 1990s...in the year 2042.

Just as they all will at:
1. boardwalk
2. Beach club
3. Wilderness lodge
4. Hilton head
5. Vero beach.

I worked with the original GM of vacation club for a spell...it’s not that complicated. What it IS is an engine that has to run...you can’t have systemwide disruption under the algorithm. They’re going to have to do something whether they like it or not or rock the whole gravy train program. These are high earning, high spending frequent travelers...like the “praetorian guard”. You don’t tell them to “forfeit” anything. And the only reason you are called an “owner” at all is Because Florida charges meager annual property taxes on it. It’s in reality a “long term rental/lease”. Kinda like you “renting” a room at art of animation for a week...just longterm and non-address specific.

It’s really not that tough.


I will make this “educated” prediction: anyone thinking dvc is going to suffer “pain” in a restart so they can get off the street one shot package travelers in their first is in for a rick rude awakening...

Nobody puts baby in the corner. They’ll do something or suffer huge losses for 10 or more years afterward.

 

[correcaminos]

The original contracts all had a 2042 expiration date

When they did the OPTIONAL extensions...they flipped the existing contract language to honor that end date while allowing a $15 per point extension (2007-2009 offer) to those interested in the 15 year extension...as an experiment. They didn’t like it (DDC) for a number of reasons and we have not heard a peep since. No one is “yielding” anything except in the semantics sense. Those that said “yes” get 15 additional for a fee...those that said “no”walk away on the exact day it said when they bought in the early 1990s...in the year 2042.

Just as they all will at:
1. boardwalk
2. Beach club
3. Wilderness lodge
4. Hilton head
5. Vero beach.

I worked with the original GM of vacation club for a spell...it’s not that complicated. What it IS is an engine that has to run...you can’t have systemwide disruption under the algorithm. They’re going to have to do something whether they like it or not or rock the whole gravy train program. These are high earning, high spending frequent travelers...like the “praetorian guard”. You don’t tell them to “forfeit” anything. And the only reason you are called an “owner” at all is Because Florida charges meager annual property taxes on it. It’s in reality a “long term rental/lease”. Kinda like you “renting” a room at art of animation for a week...just longterm and non-address specific.

It’s really not that tough.


I will make this “educated” prediction: anyone thinking dvc is going to suffer “pain” in a restart so they can get off the street one shot package travelers in their first is in for a rick rude awakening...

Nobody puts baby in the corner. They’ll do something or suffer huge losses for 10 or more years afterward.

Do you own at OKW? They flat out extended the resort. Either you signed the quitclaim which by definition means you are quitting your claim, or you didn't. So yes, the original POS had 2042, but then they amended it. Nothing about this contractually was optional. They were forceful in the choice due to how they did extended the resort.

Chances of a repeat are slim to none as this was a mess and a bully move. All of the resort ends now unless you chose to quit the claim early. It was a craptastic move.

 

[Giss Neric]

I really don't know what to answer now, knowing that the US already has half a million cases more than any other country.

 

[Crazydisneyfanluke]

Irrespective of the months you attached, I think it is important to understand that whatever happens, it's in the best interest of the company, the the state of Florida, the entire theme park industry, and even beyond, to have the TWDC domestic parks execute a phased rollout plan. I think the best place for them to start with a ticketing base is to only allow AP holders in for a couple weeks to MK or AK, then open the resorts and allow only onsite guests and AP holders into the parks. Sure, you're talking about letting your lowest revenue guests back in the gates first, but the company is already forgoing payment on month to month AP plans and losing out on any potential renewals or new purchases of said tickets. It's also going to be a virtually 100% in state populace. Ideally (IDEALLY!!!) it's also a populace that will be more patient with the massive changes in the status quo to operations (no theater shows, halving capacity at all restaurants, significant expansion of boarding group queuing).

A few weeks ago I thought of the idea of closing Epcot separate from the rest of the resort was ludicrous. With the intentionally depleted staffing, the size of the park, and the outstanding construction at the park, closing it through the summer actually makes some sense to me. I do expect a number of the resorts to stay offline through the end of the year (absolutely insane, talking about closing Disney resorts through Christmas!) I believe Port Orleans was closed after 9/11, so that and the All-Stars could remotely conceivably stay closed through Summer 2021.

The biggest factor, and the one that is impossible to predict right now, is when and how can the crowds come back? This is a good time to have a company full of bean counters to game that out for the resorts. I can't imagine what that looks like.

It is truly based on demand. Opening the Parks and Resorts one by one will ensure that they meet the demand safely and ensure the changes in operations are fool proof before expanding.

I could potentially see EPCOT not opening until the holiday season or even until Feb/March 2021.

 

[Crazydisneyfanluke]

I really don't know what to answer now, knowing that the US already has half a million cases more than any other country.

Wow...that’s a hell of a lot of employees cost for not a lot of crowds...

I’m not saying it’s not reasonable...it just opens things up and predicts “business as usual” in a very short window based on the lack of control of the biologic threat in the medium term.

Fair criticism, as new information arises, the timeline can be adjusted. The world can never go back to "normal" after this. The Unions will definitely have a say in this to ensure that CM's get back to work asap. That is about 43k+ employees.