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WDW Reopening Estimates
- Thread starter tecowdw
- Start date
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CastAStone
5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
To me there’s very little hope for June but quite a bit for November. Here’s why:
3 realistic options to quash COVID
1) Vaccine. Early 2021 at best; exceptionally effective
2) Antiviral. Could know this month if one works; late summer to have sufficient stocks if already an FDA approved medicine, late fall if not. Exceptionally effective
3) Testing and tracing. Could start whenever testing capacity is sufficient; the Google/Apple partnership could really improve efficacy. Would take months to work and efficacy is contingent on execution.
2 and 3 could see parks reopen by November. But not June.
A few encouraging pieces of news over the last couple of days:
1) they continue to trace COVID cases back to as early as the first week of January in the United States. We are on the brink of discovering that this virus has had far more community spread than we ever anticipated and the herd immunity is far more significant than we ever imagined.
2) data continues to look encouraging in warm weather climates that the spread of the virus is drastically reduced.
3) Italy and Spain are already putting plans in motion to reopen their economies. This is both encouraging and helpful because it will be a test case for the US. Additionally, Texas is about to reopen their economy as well.
Finally, I think the biggest mistake Disney could make is opening too late. Allow me to explain... Disney as a company employs hundreds of thousands of people and the longer they remain closed the higher their inability to employ more cast members and roll out future expansion plans. I’m not calling for them to open tomorrow but I’d encourage them to push the envelope a little bit and open in early June.
1) they continue to trace COVID cases back to as early as the first week of January in the United States. We are on the brink of discovering that this virus has had far more community spread than we ever anticipated and the herd immunity is far more significant than we ever imagined.
2) data continues to look encouraging in warm weather climates that the spread of the virus is drastically reduced.
3) Italy and Spain are already putting plans in motion to reopen their economies. This is both encouraging and helpful because it will be a test case for the US. Additionally, Texas is about to reopen their economy as well.
Finally, I think the biggest mistake Disney could make is opening too late. Allow me to explain... Disney as a company employs hundreds of thousands of people and the longer they remain closed the higher their inability to employ more cast members and roll out future expansion plans. I’m not calling for them to open tomorrow but I’d encourage them to push the envelope a little bit and open in early June.
ryguy
Well-Known Member
I think the big question is when do the masses feel safe to go to places with large groups. I have this vision in my head of the munchkins popping their heads up when Dorothy plops down in munchkin land. Personally I have no real desire to go to Disney or any theme park anytime soon. Sporting events, movies, concerts.. forget about it. Not worth the risk. Until there is a reliable easy test I am going to lay low. I have a feeling the next year will be a roller coaster in regards to flare ups of covid-19 with regional closures of public places in those spots. Our new normal I am afraid for the foreseeable future. Kinda a nightmare for those industries who deal with large groups of people.
Parker in NYC
Well-Known Member
I know I'm a broken record here but Broadway insiders keep discussing further and further delays. First it was April, then July, now folks are saying September. I can't imagine major theme parks or sporting events or concerts returning before Times Square does. I really can't.
WondersOfLife
Blink, blink. Breathe, breathe. Day in, day out.
It depends on which masses you ask... Because everyone here in South Carolina doesn't give a flying hoot about the "stay at home" demands. They think it's all a joke (sadly).
Kamikaze
Well-Known Member
Don't forget the impact of herd immunity.
Crazydisneyfanluke
Well-Known Member
My thoughts:
The only way they can be successful at reopening the parks is to do it over a 4-10 month period. They basically turned off their supply chains for resources (Think the culture programs, CPs, Food & Bev, Fireworks) and it will take time to start them back up. Another thing to note, there might be new policies (that come from the CDC or any form of government) in place that require training and could delay the opening.
- Disney Springs/ESPN will open in mid - late June
- Magic Kingdom + Area resorts will accept guests starting late June - Early July (either open before the 4th or after the 4th)
- MK hours might be 9 AM - 8 PM (No shows for atleast a month, they may even do firework shows that are not centered around the hub (Fantasy in the sky)
- DHS/AK will open mid - late July
- DHS hours might be 9 AM - 7 PM (No F!, No Firework shows)
- AK hours might be from 9 AM - 6 PM (No ROL)
- EPCOT may open in August / September One way to get people to come to EPCOT is food and wine, but a big scale back.
- EPCOT hours might be 10 AM - 7 PM With world showcase opening at 11 PM.
- Not all resorts will open some will stay vacant until demand dictates it to come back. No need to have a fully staffed resort with no guests staying there. Same goes for the Mini golf courses.
- Blizzard Beach might open in February 2021 with Typhoon lagoon opening mid-late March 2021.
The only way they can be successful at reopening the parks is to do it over a 4-10 month period. They basically turned off their supply chains for resources (Think the culture programs, CPs, Food & Bev, Fireworks) and it will take time to start them back up. Another thing to note, there might be new policies (that come from the CDC or any form of government) in place that require training and could delay the opening.
The reopening of the US economy should be in stages. Different regions should open starting at different dates with different industries opening on different dates. As for themeparks, indoor and outdoor rides should oppen differently. I hope Disney, Universal and all the other parks have given this a great deal of thought because it will not be easy. I also think hotels must be careful because highrise buildings with elevators are a huge issue. Building 3 stories or less with stairs are safe but builings of 6 or more floors must not open higher floors because of needed elevator use.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Wow...that’s a hell of a lot of employees cost for not a lot of crowds...
I’m not saying it’s not reasonable...it just opens things up and predicts “business as usual” in a very short window based on the lack of control of the biologic threat in the medium term.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Broadway is in NYC. Both the epidemiological and political status there are different than FL.
Indoor theatres and stadiums are very different than a roller coaster.
csmat99
Well-Known Member
Problem with no signs of second wave is Disney is the exact place where second wave would start if they open up too soon.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
True...
But mass crowds are mass crowds and getting over that hurdle from a legal/safety standpoint isn’t going to be a lot different than on broadway
ryguy
Well-Known Member
The phycological aspect is at play here too. After 9/11 the planes were flying and very safe but it took awhile for people to feel safe and comfortable again. Same thing here, just because its open doesn't mean people will go. I Don't envy the people making these decisions.
networkpro
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Thankfully Disneyworld is not in NYC or in terms of population density or cleanliness.
csmat99
Well-Known Member
I don't agree at all. It's much easier to clean one theater that only would have one show per day versus Disney World that is size of a city and would be impossible to clean all the areas as people are touching, sneezing, etc in. Disney will not be able to open any inside building that has seating like mermaid, bugs, Epcot WS videos, etc. They won't be able to use any queue's. They will have to be virtual lines and walk on rides. Only way to do that would to limit amount of people in the park probably by a 50-60 percent at least. Let's be clear Disney will be losing money on the parks for at least a year until they can operate normally. They won't be able to raise prices to make up the difference. Actually opposite they will need to run amazing deals to convince people that are concerned to come.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Less money is better than none and they will obviously reduce operational budgets. Staying closed for over a year significantly damages the brand.
Haymarket2008
Well-Known Member
I have heard September from some higher ups in my community.
uncle jimmy
Premium Member
How would WDW only open certain resorts or let only those staying at Deluxe/ DVC resorts?
If they were going to do something like that, wouldn't we be only able to see those rooms being available in June?
I think WDW, when they do decide to open will treat it like the levels for max crowds. Starting with only allowing resort guests and AP guests, if the crowds are too large, they pull back the AP's(unless they are staying at a resort) and close the park down.
In my heart I want WDW to open in June like most, August the latest in hopes... But realistic September/ October maybe where we stand.
If they were going to do something like that, wouldn't we be only able to see those rooms being available in June?
I think WDW, when they do decide to open will treat it like the levels for max crowds. Starting with only allowing resort guests and AP guests, if the crowds are too large, they pull back the AP's(unless they are staying at a resort) and close the park down.
In my heart I want WDW to open in June like most, August the latest in hopes... But realistic September/ October maybe where we stand.
Parker in NYC
Well-Known Member
I don't care how clean things are, the crush of people in 40+ theaters for 2-3 hours in the space of 20 blocks at a time is a pretty good indication of what's up. If I can't safely go to the theater, no way in hell I'm going to the parks.
That conflicts with what I've heard but that sounds a lot more promising.
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