WDW Reopening Estimates

[csmat99]

This just happened.

Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.

When the medical examiners’ list was available, it showed more deaths than the state’s count.

www.tampabay.com

 

[csmat99]

We don’t need to make this political or make insidious assumptions. A lot of Western nations are having issues with ramping up testing. We’re on par with many of them in terms of tests per 1 million citizens.

I'm not making this political. You just need to look at the VP walking in the Mayo clinic without mask which had mandatory rule that everyone wears mask. They even put post on twitter saying they let him know of this rule and then White house forced them to delete tweet. This is a problem when the person who is the head of the task force is not obeying the rules in place to protect people.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Governors are free to do that in their own states.

They aren't...which is extremely unfortunate. My husband has taken to carrying extras with him...just bandannas...so if he's working and someone approaches him who isn't wearing one, he can ask that they put one on.

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

N-95 masks are needed by those working in health-care...we should never want to see those being worn by the general public.

It is a bummer to see peeps wearing those N95s in public......such a shortage and could be used elsewhere

 

[UNCgolf]

Ahhh...that makes sense. I hadn't thought of it that way!

Yeah. It's not like 50% of people who take it are going to have a heart problem or anything that dramatic, but even if it only caused a problem in 1% of people, that's not really worth the risk if you don't know if it's actually doing anything to help.

If studies ever show that it absolutely is beneficial for Covid-19, I'm sure that that benefit would outweigh the risk of any heart-related side effects.

 

[bryanfze55]

My mom had it (definitely, confirmed with testing) and we're pretty sure I had it (wasn't tested). It's not that serious unless you're an 85 year old smoker.

Actually, studies are showing that smokers seem to have better outcomes from COVID-19... somehow.

It all goes back to we don’t know much...

Find some kind of balance between taking precautions, being wary of all politicians, and relying on data rather than personal anecdotes.

I would say brushing this off as not serious for anyone under 85 is just not alarmist enough, whereas people who try to say this is very dangerous for the average 35-year-old is probably too alarmist. Again, balance.

 

[UNCgolf]

Actually, studies are showing that smokers seem to have better outcomes from COVID-19... somehow.

I don't think that's right -- I haven't gone back to check, but I'm pretty sure the study showed that smokers are less likely to catch it because nicotine does something that makes it harder for the virus to infect cells. If they do catch it, though, they're more at risk than the general population.

So it is still more dangerous for smokers provided that they catch it; they just may be less likely to catch it overall.

 

[jpeden]

One of the reasons I think the parks, and most everything else, will open sooner rather than later is because of "Quarantine Fatigue". People went along with it for a while to help "flatten the curve", but now they are getting increasingly worried about the economic impact and questioning if it's really still worth the cost of keeping everything shut down for too much longer.

It appears the re-opening "train" is now moving down the tracks and it's only gaining steam. The only thing that will stop it would be a huge uptick in cases, which may or may not happen. I think many (most?) are just no longer willing to continue to pay the exorbitant economic cost and threat to their livelihoods on something the "might" happen.

Yep - and interestingly enough, the European countries that have started opening back up have not seen a major uptick in virus transmission. There's not enough data except for categorical inference, but it is an encouraging sign nonetheless.

 

[ppete1975]

I forgot this was a Disney message board, so figured id put this here....

 

[yonafunu]

Yep - and interestingly enough, the European countries that have started opening back up have not seen a major uptick in virus transmission. There's not enough data except for categorical inference, but it is an encouraging sign nonetheless.

Ouch, it's way to soon to say that.
As a french, France will open some stuff on 11 may except restaurent and pub, some parks. And you can't move further than 100km from your home. Also only a part of France citizen will can move, depending if the part where they live is not too infected.
For Spain, this is more or less the same thing. Germany has open a lot of stuff but the R0 has increase to 1 just after that.
Clearly we move on , but unfornately not enough for me.

Also, Argentina has closed their border until september, not even one commercial flight can come or leave.
Hope this will be good at the end of the summer. We have to live and enjoy life.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

That is a lie. Healthy people under 65 have gotten the virus and died. Personally I know of at least 3. In addition all these "healthy" people would most likely come in contact with older people or people who are truly high risk.

"Minuscule" does not equal "zero".

Healthy folks under 65 who acquire the virus have a very, very small chance of being hospitalized or dying. This has been well-documented.

And I only brought it up in terms of how Disney is looking at the data. If they are looking for positives, that is one.

 

[mdcpr]

It is a bummer to see peeps wearing those N95s in public......such a shortage and could be used elsewhere

Some of them are fake copies. I have a friend who showed her mask, and it was not even a real N95.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

Exactly. I was saying don’t bother since the OP quoted someone who thinks opinion is fact.

Not sure if this was meant for me, but I'll say this..

The fact is that healthy people under 65 who acquire the virus have a very small chance of a bad outcome.

My opinion is that Disney looks at that fact as a positive.

 

[jpeden]

Ouch, it's way to soon to say that.
As a french, France will open some stuff on 11 may except restaurent and pub, some parks. And you can't move further than 100km from your home. Also only a part of France citizen will can move, depending if the part where they live is not too infected.
For Spain, this is more or less the same thing. Germany has open a lot of stuff but the R0 has increase to 1 just after that.
Clearly we move on , but unfornately not enough for me.

Also, Argentina has closed their border until september, not even one commercial flight can come or leave.
Hope this will be good at the end of the summer. We have to live and enjoy life.

I didn’t mean France/Spain/Italy, but was referring to the countries in this article. I know it’s a small sample but it’s positive news:

Coronavirus: How easing lockdowns is working in European countries

Some countries across Europe have slightly eased coronavirus restrictions, with many planning more steps in early May towards reopening.

www.google.com

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

Some of them are fake copies. I have a friend who showed her mask, and it was not even a real N95.

I'm sure there are many bootlegs out there......and many NIOSH approved dustmasks vs the N95 surgicals.....

 

[tecowdw]

I forgot this was a Disney message board, so figured id put this here....

Ya, these comments on my poll took quite the dizzying turn!

 

[havoc315]

So DeSantis announced *most* of Florida can do to "Phase 1" at the end of next week. Phase 1 includes restaurants only at 25% capacity, theaters remain closed, etc...
Though not explicit, it appears theme parks would not be part of this phase. (Disney also got themselves into trouble.. how can you give guests free dining while operating the restaurants at 25-50% capacity!?!? Free dining, but you can't actually get into a restaurant!)
It's also important to note -- He said 3 counties aren't even ready for Phase 1. You can't open theme parks while parts of the state aren't even in Phase 1 -- As a major attraction like a theme park could attract infected individuals from Miami, etc.

Looking at another element -- Disney is "testing" new procedures at Disney Shanghai before opening. While WDW can learn from the procedures being implemented in Shanghai, you'd still need to bring staff back to WDW.. make physical changes for the new social distancing rules, etc, train the staff at the new procedures, etc.

Considering all this, how realistic is June 1?

Having followed this for a while, my own educated *guesses*....
June 1st is unlikely, no matter what.
June 10-15 for a partial limited open is conceivable BUT:
If infections numbers continue to decline or stay flat, even while going through "phase 1"... then I can picture having the parks somewhat open by mid to late June.
If infection numbers start to climb with "phase 1," forget Disney for at least another month or 2... August/September.

 

[Getachew]

Exactly. The elderly shouldn't be barred from anything. They should be informed of the risks and make their own decisions about where they want to go and what they want to do. Given the statistics, I would think most people over 65 will want to take precautions until a vaccine is available or the spread has been significantly reduced to where the risk of contraction is extremely low.

Also, there are cases where "age discrimination" is legal. Airline pilots have a mandatory retirement age of 65. Air traffic controllers 56 (with exceptions allowed up to 61).



They should be given the option to stay home and continue to take advantage of the unemployment benefits and leave.

We’ll see.

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

My biggest pet peeve...and it’s been this way for decades is when some nudnick says “democracy is better than communism!!”

Ahhhhhhhhhrrrggghhhhhh!!!!

Heard that......think busing and public schools of years past.......

 

[Herdman]

All you have to do is hear the comments from the other tourism related industries in Orange Co. (airlines, restaurants, hotels) on the task force to see how very much they are depending on Disney to re-open for their businesses to have a chance to survive. It obviously won't be part of phase 1, but assuming positive cases don't get way out of hand, Disney will be open sooner rather than later. Not at full capacity, and with restrictive measures, but the economy in Florida depends so much on them that it can't wait until a vaccine is found or we have total theauraputic measures in place. Phil Brown, CEO of the Orlando airport said "what he believes is really going to get people back to Orlando is the reopening of the theme parks". Don Giordano, General Manager of Rosen Shingle Creek Resort said "when Disney World opens that brings tremendous confidence to the consumer". Safe, sensible, responsible reopening practices have to rule the day.