WDW Reopening Estimates

[rle4lunch]

I don't disagree at all but I also don't think you can expect all people to use common sense in adhering to the use of masks, physical distancing, etc. as means of prevention. But I've said it enough on here to realize that many don't agree. And that's what gives me pause.

If they want guest adherence, they need to issue a mask at entry.

 

[Parker in NYC]

If they want guest adherence, they need to issue a mask at entry.

I agree. But masks need to remain on and physical distancing needs to continue. Masks tend to make people feel invincible on the latter. Merely providing them doesn't mean folks will abide by Disney's rules. And again, I think of the poor cast members who can't get people to follow the rules on a normal pre-Covid day!

 

[ilovetotravel1977]

Doubt it. The governor decides that and opening Disney doesn't fit with slow and methodically.

I thought this Gov. was supposed to be all gung-ho to reopen everything? Now he is being cautious? So confusing.

 

[Jrb1979]

I thought this Gov. was supposed to be all gung-ho to reopen everything? Now he is being cautious? So confusing.

From the way he was talking yesterday they are taking it slow. He only announced phase 1 and no date for the next phase. Just that it will be all based on data and science. I am glad they are doing that way.

 

[Epcotbob]

I thought this Gov. was supposed to be all gung-ho to reopen everything? Now he is being cautious? So confusing.

Wasn't the plan always to open Florida businesses in phases starting in May? I'm not sure what is so confusing.....

 

[ilovetotravel1977]

Wasn't the plan always to open Florida businesses in phases starting in May? I'm not sure what is so confusing.....

Just seemed like he wanted to open everything yesterday.

Up here in Canada we will be watching to see how the reopening plans of the US work out. Hopefully we will get out of lockdown soon!

 

[Jrb1979]

Just seemed like he wanted to open everything yesterday.

Up here in Canada we will be watching to see how the reopening plans of the US work out. Hopefully we will get out of lockdown soon!

Good news Ontario is going to be putting out plans for how businesses can reopen with social distancing in place. I'm glad we are taking it slow. Our cases haven't dropped they have just plateaued.

 

[ilovetotravel1977]

Good news Ontario is going to be putting out plans for how businesses can reopen with social distancing in place. I'm glad we are taking it slow. Our cases haven't dropped they have just plateaued.

Nova Scotia is still under State of Emergency until May 3, schools closed until at least May 18, we have been only having around 12 cases on average per day the last week or so and most are tied to a LTC facility. Hopefully another three weeks and we can start to lift restrictions a tad.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

Looking at Florida’s data through today I find it fascinating that the spread/infection rate in Florida has been very mild and far below what the genius models were projecting weeks ago. Obviously doesn’t mean we’re completely out of the woods yet but it’s a good sign.
That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney Parks start making announcements in mid May for their plan to reopen sometime in June. Attendance caps and restricted attractions will be in place for a few months but I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time Food and Wine rolls around in August Disney is a full go with no restrictions.

 

[Getachew]

Looking at Florida’s data through today I find it fascinating that the spread/infection rate in Florida has been very mild and far below what the genius models were projecting weeks ago. Obviously doesn’t mean we’re completely out of the woods yet but it’s a good sign.
That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney Parks start making announcements in mid May for their plan to reopen sometime in June. Attendance caps and restricted attractions will be in place for a few months but I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time Food and Wine rolls around in August Disney is a full go with no restrictions.

that will entirely depend on the data, and not just for Fl, imo.

 

[UNCgolf]

Looking at Florida’s data through today I find it fascinating that the spread/infection rate in Florida has been very mild and far below what the genius models were projecting weeks ago. Obviously doesn’t mean we’re completely out of the woods yet but it’s a good sign.
That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney Parks start making announcements in mid May for their plan to reopen sometime in June. Attendance caps and restricted attractions will be in place for a few months but I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time Food and Wine rolls around in August Disney is a full go with no restrictions.

It's almost impossible to know the spread/infection rate because testing levels are way too low. There could be 2 million people currently infected in Florida (I'm not saying there are) and nobody would have any idea.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

It's almost impossible to know the spread/infection rate because testing levels are way too low. There could be 2 million people currently infected in Florida (I'm not saying there are) and nobody would have any idea.

Agreed 100%. We could be further through this pandemic than we even realize...I am hoping.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

It's almost impossible to know the spread/infection rate because testing levels are way too low. There could be 2 million people currently infected in Florida (I'm not saying there are) and nobody would have any idea.

While I agree Florida still continue to run at only about a 10% positive:test rate. If the virus was truly running rampant in the state those numbers would be 2-3 times higher.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Looking at Florida’s data through today I find it fascinating that the spread/infection rate in Florida has been very mild and far below what the genius models were projecting weeks ago. Obviously doesn’t mean we’re completely out of the woods yet but it’s a good sign.
That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney Parks start making announcements in mid May for their plan to reopen sometime in June. Attendance caps and restricted attractions will be in place for a few months but I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time Food and Wine rolls around in August Disney is a full go with no restrictions.

"Genius models" were continuously adjusted basted on the increased social distancing. The most recent estimate had 60K national deaths but because people are getting stir crazy and not staying home, we've blown through that and are looking like closer to 100K now.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

"Genius models" were continuously adjusted basted on the increased social distancing. The most recent estimate had 60K national deaths

10% positive rate is way too high. It indicates a lack of testing and significant ongoing community spread.

10% is way too high? NY at their peak was hitting a nearly 55% positive:test rate. 10% is actually a very good threshold as it indicates the virus is NOT spreading rapidly.

 

[Herdman]

You are fake news. Please learn more about medicine/epidemiology. 10% positive rate means undertesting and it’s too high.

Read any tweet from Trump’s FDA head:
“The 10% positivity rate of current testing is a very high number...”

From this week:
“The actual number of coronavirus cases in the United States is likely significantly higher — as much 10 or even 20 times higher — than the tally of Covid-19 infections currently being reported, a former top federal health official said Tuesday.

"There's certainly under-diagnosis going on," Dr. Scott Gottlieb said during an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The actual number of cases "probably is 10 times as many," said Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and a CNBC contributor.

"We're probably diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 infections, and that's what some of the reliable analyses are now showing," he said.”

(How does he know we’re under-diagnosing????
Because the case positive rate is too high. And math. Numbers usually require math.)

And with your numbers being correct that reduces the death rate way down also since they are calculating that based on confirmed cases. More than likely in reality it's not that much different than the seasonal flu.

 

[whiterhino42]

I'm a WDW annual Passholder from the Netherlands. Is there any chance they'd give me a refund or maybe change my pass from 2020 to 2021 if travel from Europe to US is not possible?

They did extend it ...my sister has one and was notified.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

No. I know people like to hope, it's my name, after all. But, no, you can't hope away a virus.

The virus is still easily transmissible. That has never changed, and if anything the base R0 has increased from 2 to 3. With all the restrictions, we got the R down to like .7. That's great! We gave ourselves time to evaluate where we are, learn what we could, and prepare our hospitals. We were flying blind in Feb/March. We had to lock down so we could figure out where we were. Turned out we got lucky, and the virus had not penetrated as far as we thought. Mostly, on the coasts and not in a volume to get the spike everyone was worried about. Now, where is the virus? Everywhere. Volume, who knows?

The R won't stay at .7 without restrictions. It won't stay at .7 without a vigorous test, trace, isolate which most communities seem unwilling or unable to do. We will not be through this pandemic until we can A. Eliminate it completely. Islands can do this. Places with open borders can not. B. Immunity C. Vaccine. D. It mutates itself out of existence. The most likely options, B & C are going to take 1-2 years. Even if we get a vaccine in 6 months, the time and resources it will take to distribute it to the population won't happen overnight.

What is frustrating to me, is that people see the restrictions being lifted and think this is close to being over. We are at the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. We're at the end of Act 1, not the start of Act 3. We can probably loosen restrictions somewhat, because the hospitals are well below capacity. We have the "freedom" to infect more people, but that doesn't mean going back to the "way things were." We do that, we're back where we were in January, only with thousands of more starting points instead of the couple dozen that we had then. In 6-8 weeks, the same unfavorable outcome. All this phase talk, give the impression that we're going to do phase 1 for a month, and then move to phase 2, and then we'll be onto phase 3 a short time later, and then we're done.

There are still millions of people who have yet to be infected, so we will be back to the same set of ethical questions that The Mom is tired of us talking about, so don't worry, I'm not. The virus' capability to spread hasn't changed, we've just done a "better than expected" job of depriving it of food (people) while we regrouped. This is worth celebrating, but it's not the end. Politicians have many reasons for not wanting to advertise that reality, people have many reasons for not wanting to think about it. But the virus, only needs two things, which it will have, bodies and time. I hate to be a downer, but I don't want people to be emotionally unprepared when the skies darken again.

Oh, I’m all too aware that we’re at the end of the beginning...I’ve been very vocal in my concerns that we’re not being cautious enough, and that I worry we’ll rush through the re-opening phases. My hope is that we’ve had many times the number of infections than we think because that would mean we’re even just a little bit closer to herd immunity.

 

[hopemax]

Oh, I’m all too aware that we’re at the end of the beginning...I’ve been very vocal in my concerns that we’re not being cautious enough, and that I worry we’ll rush through the re-opening phases. My hope is that we’ve had many times the number of infections than we think because that would mean we’re even just a little bit closer to herd immunity.

Good I thought you were, but then the comment about being "farther along" threw me a bit. NYC, is closest to immunity, by all accounts, and they're only at 25%, which at best, is still only halfway. I was reading Seattle Epidemiologist Twitter guy this evening. Unfortunately, he sees us having only plateaued this past month, so R of ~1 not .7 . And that if we keep this pace of infection, on September 1 we will be at ~15% immunity nationwide A very different picture than where people think we are. 120 days @ 2000 deaths per day is not what I want to think about either.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Does anyone think WDW could open in June to FL residents only?

I was just looking at the weekend virus statistics and FL reported just 28 deaths combined Sat/Sun, down from 40ish the past two weekends. Those are encouraging numbers in a state of 22 million people.

My personal opinion is that the Mayor, Governor, etc are pushing to pave the way for WDW to open as soon as possible. The economy is based on tourism. Opening only to FL may serve a purpose to get the employees and processes up to snuff, but regarding the economy it's a bit like plugging a power strip into itself, it provides no benefit. And resort stayers are the most profitable guests they get. Add to that the head of Southwest Airline saying that WDW needs to reopen and that no one knows how bad the travel industry is. I also am pretty sure the Oompa Loompas are working feverishly every night to get things sharp. Lol.