Wait Lines for New Gondolas

[flynnibus]

I post this a few pages back and got no response, but does anyone know what the operating hours are going to be? Right now I'm going of the assumption that it will be similar to the monorail hours.

What the actual question you need answering? You should expect it to run similar to the services it’s replacing... the park bus routes.

It’s going to run like all their transportation... what the park needs. The only main variable I think will be is if they will run it for “extra early” needs... like breakfast adrs, events, etc... or if those needs would be covered by buses.

 

[DisneyJoe]

My question to @Driver - many in this thread are making the assumption that the bus service that serves CBR to Epcot/Studios as well as the bus service that serves Pop to Epcot/Studios will stop completely, or almost completely - since many assume that WL has no bus service to MK since they have a boat - yet I know from experience that WL to MK has a bus route that runs fairly often.

@Driver - in your opinion, what will happen to the Pop/CBR bus service when the gondolas are fully operational?

 

[flynnibus]

My question to @Driver - many in this thread are making the assumption that the bus service that serves CBR to Epcot/Studios as well as the bus service that serves Pop to Epcot/Studios will stop completely, or almost completely - since many assume that WL has no bus service to MK since they have a boat - yet I know from experience that WL to MK has a bus route that runs fairly often.

@Driver - in your opinion, what will happen to the Pop/CBR bus service when the gondolas are fully operational?

The assumption is not based on the WL parallel but based on comments from those familiar with the project.

 

[DisneyJoe]

The assumption is not based on the WL parallel but based on comments from those familiar with the project.

I understand, but some did mention WL specifically (and Port Orleans/SSR/OKW), which is why I ask.

 

[thomas998]

Well... since you liked doing round estimates before... you can ballpark what the minimum number of buses are needed for a route by estimating their cycle time, load, and unload. Without even running the numbers, I’d bet you’d find a single route that takes 10mins on the road would take at least 3 buses to maintain a 15-20min cycle. Then look at how many routes are impacted... and you at least have a minimum impact... that would likely only go up when demand increases.

But like I outlined above... the gondola system has several huge advantages up front when it comes to efficiencies of movement. And the one big take away I had from my nuclear engineering class was.... you can radically simplify your analysis when you simply throw out the portions of the equation that never have a chance of being materially significant. Now in that context, we were talking about how things that were huge orders of magnitude different... there was no reason to calculate the little guy... but the same philosophy applies here. When something has huge multipliers as a head start... it is going to take a huge disparity for the other side to catch up.

And we already know that ICE is a very inefficient form of combustion and diesel is not a really clean burning fuel to start with.... compared to bulk generated electricity that goes through very efficient motors. Then start to think about all the energy, time, labor, etc spent maintaining many vehicles verse a consolidated system, etc. it’s a tall hill for the buses to climb..

As for not reducing bus counts... Disney isn’t going to run more buses than it needs on those other existing routes. So excess supply will simply be cut. And for weather closures, Disney already has a system for elastic demand... maybe they simply add a tad more capacity to that pool (which would not be the same as a full time route)... or they simply accept that wait times will exceed the norm in those situations.

Plus, remember that weather is something that can be forecasted... even if not perfect.

You also have highlighted one big problem with the efficiency of the gondola. They will run constantly even if there are only a few people trying to get to a park whereas the old bus system could have ramped up the number of buses in the mornings and evening and then cut back during lower volume times of the day. Can't do that the gondola. If you were trying to minimize your pollution from transporting guests you would probably have to use a combination of gondolas during peak time, then switching over to buses in the hours of the day when you just don't have lots of people flooding the parks.

If you look at the CBR to Hollywood Studio route it has about 8 stops if it hits every bus stop, assume 5 minutes per stop and it sitting for 40 minutes 12 minutes travel time but round trip its 24 minutes so 64 minutes worst case for a CBR/Hollywood bus, If they have 15 minutes between bus stop then 4 or 5 buses should be able to cover that route. So during the times when Disney is running 5 buses on that route they are breaking even on cost of energy/fuel... but when they can cut down from the 5 buses then your spending more on your gondola.

 

[flynnibus]

You also have highlighted one big problem with the efficiency of the gondola. They will run constantly even if there are only a few people trying to get to a park whereas the old bus system could have ramped up the number of buses in the mornings and evening and then cut back during lower volume times of the day. Can't do that the gondola.

Correct, but that’s in part why I was telling you to focus on minimum numbers... not actuals. The actual bus counts are based on load... which is highly variable and difficult to talk about without hard numbers, dealing with seasons, time of day, etc. where as minimums are far more constant because you are trying to meet a service standard... even if no one is there. Disneynhas not achieved full on demand... so they have minimum pickups they need to attempt.

And eating into that difference as well is an empty gondola has less load on the motor... less energy consumption.

Remember... the goal is not to minimize pollution... its more of a consequence and advantage to reduce... but you don’t put it at the front of the priority list to shift how you operate.

 

[thomas998]

Correct, but that’s in part why I was telling you to focus on minimum numbers... not actuals. The actual bus counts are based on load... which is highly variable and difficult to talk about without hard numbers, dealing with seasons, time of day, etc. where as minimums are far more constant because you are trying to meet a service standard... even if no one is there. Disneynhas not achieved full on demand... so they have minimum pickups they need to attempt.

And eating into that difference as well is an empty gondola has less load on the motor... less energy consumption.

Remember... the goal is not to minimize pollution... its more of a consequence and advantage to reduce... but you don’t put it at the front of the priority list to shift how you operate.

Would be interesting to know what impact a half loaded system has on the motors vs one of just empty gondola. Give the gondolas are going to be fairly heavy empty and at peak times people will likely only be going one way or the other and not both I would be surprised if the difference in energy usage is that great... would kind of expect that the biggest load for the motors will always be when the system is first started up.

 

[flynnibus]

Would be interesting to know what impact a half loaded system has on the motors vs one of just empty gondola. Give the gondolas are going to be fairly heavy empty and at peak times people will likely only be going one way or the other and not both I would be surprised if the difference in energy usage is that great... would kind of expect that the biggest load for the motors will always be when the system is first started up.

Well... it’s a complicated topic because efficiencies are a factor of motor design... you design the motor based on the operating parameters to optimize the efficiency. And how the motor is controlled is a huge variable. But the pure physics is of course more weight to be moved... requires more work... and starting from zero requires the most work... due to inertia and the fact that electric motors are far less efficient in general at lower rpms.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Correct, but that’s in part why I was telling you to focus on minimum numbers... not actuals. The actual bus counts are based on load... which is highly variable and difficult to talk about without hard numbers, dealing with seasons, time of day, etc. where as minimums are far more constant because you are trying to meet a service standard... even if no one is there. Disneynhas not achieved full on demand... so they have minimum pickups they need to attempt.

And eating into that difference as well is an empty gondola has less load on the motor... less energy consumption.

Remember... the goal is not to minimize pollution... its more of a consequence and advantage to reduce... but you don’t put it at the front of the priority list to shift how you operate.

And many a time they will run with only a few on board. They cannot wait for people to show up and make a full bus. If buses are scheduled, at a minimum of 20 minutes which needs to happen to keep the guest with a workable dependable time to get a bus going in your direction. In that process they very seldom stop because many of the routes are not just back and forth between one place but staggered scheduling that helps to keep things on schedule in case of traffic or accidents. The buses very seldom shut down for any appreciable length of time from the time they are in service and even if they shut down at every scheduled stop the amount of fuel required to start back up and get the engine back to maximum running temperature. However, it is easy to see that that many trips per day to each affected resort is going to use a whole lot more energy then the one power source per per drive area with the Gondola's. It's really a no brainer.

I know it isn't you that is arguing this, but, I'm sick of the frustration of trying to explain stuff to someone that doesn't want to hear it.

 

[marni1971]

I was told there's rarely lighting at WDW anyway. May rain alot but lighting is rare supposedly.

Oh there’s a lot of lighting. And lightning too.

 

[RustySpork]

I was told there's rarely lighting at WDW anyway. May rain alot but lighting is rare supposedly.

I don't know who told you that, but they are on some really great drugs.

They may have been talking about strikes which are rare, but (according to my guest view perspective) Disney has excellent lightning protection and you can see it installed everywhere.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I was told there's rarely lighting at WDW anyway. May rain alot but lighting is rare supposedly.

Is Lightning Rare at WDW? The Answer May Surprise Nine Out of Ten Doctors!!

 

[RustySpork]

Is Lightning Rare at WDW? The Answer May Surprise Nine Out of Ten Doctors!!

There are few things on earth as spectacular as watching lightning strike behind the castle at Magic Kingdom in person. I've been fortunate enough to have witnessed it more than once over the years.

 

[thomas998]

And many a time they will run with only a few on board. They cannot wait for people to show up and make a full bus. If buses are scheduled, at a minimum of 20 minutes which needs to happen to keep the guest with a workable dependable time to get a bus going in your direction. In that process they very seldom stop because many of the routes are not just back and forth between one place but staggered scheduling that helps to keep things on schedule in case of traffic or accidents. The buses very seldom shut down for any appreciable length of time from the time they are in service and even if they shut down at every scheduled stop the amount of fuel required to start back up and get the engine back to maximum running temperature. However, it is easy to seen that that many trips per day to each affected resort is going to use a whole lot more energy then the one power source per per drive area with the Gondola's. It's really a no brainer.

I know it isn't you that is arguing this, but, I'm sick of the frustration of trying to explain stuff to someone that doesn't want to hear it.

If you bothered to look at any of the myriad of numbers that have been run, the amount of energy used may not be a lot less for one large motor vs 4 or 5 buses. If one leg uses a 1100hp electric motor that motor is going to be sucking a lot of juice per hour every hour all the time the parks are open.

 

[NormC]

No one has given any real numbers yet. Not worth arguing over. Have a Happy New Year! Try to be nicer to each other in 2019.

Spoiler

We know the gondolas will be more efficient than the buses.

 

[RustySpork]

It was a cast member. I asked if they were going to cancel the fireworks cause it was raining and they said they almost never cancel it except in the rare case of lightning which rarely happens.

Of course it was at the Jamaica food and wine festival booth.

Yeah, that cast member couldn't have been around very long.

 

[flynnibus]

It was a cast member. I asked if they were going to cancel the fireworks cause it was raining and they said they almost never cancel it except in the rare case of lightning which rarely happens.

Here's the thing... when you wall the discussion around the fireworks.. the statement is pretty true. They rarely cancel the fireworks... because lightning at NIGHT is far less common in the area than lighting DURING THE DAY. That doesn't mean lightning is not that common in the area - it means lightning rarely cancels the fireworks.

 

[SirWillow]

It was a cast member. I asked if they were going to cancel the fireworks cause it was raining and they said they almost never cancel it except in the rare case of lightning which rarely happens.

Of course it was at the Jamaica food and wine festival booth.

He must have been new to Florida, because he obviously didn't have a clue.
You might find this interesting: https://www.fox4now.com/news/collier-county-neighborhood-named-new-lightning-capital-of-the-us

Yes, Florida is the lightning capital of the US. According to the article the "center" moved south a bit from where it was a couple of years ago- which was about 25-30 miles from Walt Disney World. There's a ton of lightning there.

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

There are few things on earth as spectacular as watching lightning strike behind the castle at Magic Kingdom in person. I've been fortunate enough to have witnessed it more than once over the years.

Or when it strikes the Hollywood Tower Hotel making the theme even more Thrilling....

 

[RustySpork]

"In contrast, Telluride Transit Gondola Company sees the importance of protecting their 2.25 million passengers (annually) and eliminating the threat of lightning strikes to their 8 mile public transit and ski lift systems, between the town of Telluride and Mountain Village, Colorado. This Colorado area averages 7,300 Cloud to Ground (CG) lightning strikes per year. Prior to installing Lightning Eliminators & Consultants, Inc. (LEC) DAS™ solutions, the towers and stations were hit repeatedly by lightning strikes. After implementing DAS™ hemispheres on the towers, DAS™ Ridge Arrays on the stations, and Chem-Rods™ on all structures in 2001, lightning strikes have been averted from terminating the protected areas, even in the extreme conditions of wind, snow, ice, and vibrations.
LEC’s lightning elimination system at Telluride minimizes downtime due to storms. Telluride’s local economy depends a great deal on its annual tourists, so getting people to their destinations faster gives them more time on the ground, which, in turn, benefits the local economy."

https://www.lightningprotection.com/lightning-strike-shuts-down-gondola-system/

Lightning protection reduces risk by making the protected objects for lack of better words less attractive targets, but it does not completely eliminate the potential for a strike. It also doesn't protect the areas surrounding the objects, for example if you have lightning protection on a building and people are standing outside of the building (or if there are surrounding trees) they may be more attractive targets than the building itself.