Universal Puts Disney's Reopening on Defensive

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
That's been true since the 80s. We go through periods where the numbers make sense when tied to fundamentals and many more periods where they don't.
I would venture the last two months of “market growth”...as the world economy is largely shuttered and the Fed is quietly buying junk bonds by the trillions....

...would be a “don’t make sense” example.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
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I would be less skeptical of that argument if Universal was attracting more than 10000 people a day to their non-water parks.

Everyone was so certain that Disney would sell out so many parks and days yesterday and by the end of the day they had sold out their smallest park for 3 days total.

Based on what I've seen here and in, um, other recent events, I'm not sure I'd want to be pinning my hopes on people risking their health to show up for things.
I’m firmly planted in the center of the northeast megalopolis...where the largest block of wdw always comes from...

And I’ve been warning for months that the people AREN’T coming back anytime too soon. Lost year.

I think I’ve actually underestimated that so far.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Economic issues. Time off from work issues
Health concerns. Issues with modified experiences

I've thought for months Disney fan sites are way overestimating demand.
The current situation on the ground is going to be a turn off for some, especially people from hard hit areas (aka the northeast). I have a co-worker who cancelled a trip back in March and rescheduled for August. He was 100% definitely planning to go until the huge uptick in cases in the last few weeks. Now he’s on the fence about cancelling again. For a lot of people who witnessed first hand the virus raging at home (he lives in NJ) there’s little desire to go back into that again now that things are finally starting to improve on the home front. I know thats just a generalization and there will be someone from NJ who will post that they are going for sure on day 1 when the parks open. My only point is that the current uptick in cases will only reduce the demand overall.
 

homerdance

Premium Member
One big point you're missing here is that that their largest competitor is has been open for 3 weeks now. Right now it may not seem they need to be open, but market share is the driver here, not analyst predictions.


Not sure I understand the market share argument? I can't imagine there are people who had a Disney vacation planned but decided to go to Universal since Disney was closed, will all of the sudden only go to Universal in future trips. And with the exception of Harry Potter, Universal is more on par with a really good regional park, which there are plenty of in the northern US. I would say it hurts Universal more that Disney is closed then it helps, as Disney brings more people to central florida than UO does.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Not sure I understand the market share argument? I can't imagine there are people who had a Disney vacation planned but decided to go to Universal since Disney was closed, will all of the sudden only go to Universal in future trips. And with the exception of Harry Potter, Universal is more on par with a really good regional park, which there are plenty of in the northern US. I would say it hurts Universal more that Disney is closed then it helps, as Disney brings more people to central florida than UO does.
For Universal’s sake I hope there aren‘t too many people who never visited before and this is their first experience. Its not likely to leave a great taste in people’s mouth. It’s fine for regular visitors to go with all these restrictions knowing it’s a means to an end and that the full experience will be back some day but if this was your first and only experience with Universal and your only comparison is WDW in normal times it’s going to fall short. I don’t think WDW not being open impacts long term market share in any way.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The current situation on the ground is going to be a turn off for some, especially people from hard hit areas (aka the northeast). I have a co-worker who cancelled a trip back in March and rescheduled for August. He was 100% definitely planning to go until the huge uptick in cases in the last few weeks. Now he’s on the fence about cancelling again. For a lot of people who witnessed first hand the virus raging at home (he lives in NJ) there’s little desire to go back into that again now that things are finally starting to improve on the home front. I know thats just a generalization and there will be someone from NJ who will post that they are going for sure on day 1 when the parks open. My only point is that the current uptick in cases will only reduce the demand overall.
Well...since I’m the governor of New Jersey (kidding...he has about $750,000,000 in the bank from Goldman Sachs)...I can tell you that this last few weeks of “spikes” has crushed the desire to resume vacationing.

I think the shutin months would have driven a lot of people to Florida...If the trend continued down.

We’ve been there...we’ve done it. And though we like to go again and again...what’s the draw right now?

Sweating through a mask at a place that’s going to cancel new investment, delay the stuff under construction, and then hammer us with pricing as a “reward” for coming back while they plead poverty?

Sometimes...more than I’d like to admit...being the most cynical state in the country gives you clarity. This is like looking through Saran Wrap.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I certainly won't be going to WDW until everything is back to "normal". I don't want to deal with the hassle of the COVID safety theater -- nor do I want to actually catch COVID -- and I'm not willing to pay the price for a lesser experience.
I think that’s “game, set, match” for a lot more of the customers than we in the Disney fandom
Bubble are realizing.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Well...since I’m the governor of New Jersey (kidding...he has about $750,000,000 in the bank from Goldman Sachs)...I can tell you that this last few weeks of “spikes” has crushed the desire to resume vacationing.

I think the shutin months would have driven a lot of people to Florida...If the trend continued down.

We’ve been there...we’ve done it. And though we like to go again and again...what’s the draw right now?

Sweating through a mask at a place that’s going to cancel new investment, delay the stuff under construction, and then hammer us with pricing as a “reward” for coming back while they plead poverty?

Sometimes...more than I’d like to admit...being the most cynical state in the country gives you clarity. This is like looking through Saran Wrap.
I live in PA but work in NJ so I have a unique perspective on it. Kinda like being a non-resident alien. But we are in the same boat here in SE PA with case load. Not quite as bad as North Jersey, but still a little shell shocked.
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
I think that’s “game, set, match” for a lot more of the customers than we in the Disney fandom
Bubble are realizing.
I'll admit I've been overall surprised by how low Universal's crowds have been the past few weeks. I thought they would hit capacity far more than they have. I'm very interested in seeing how Disney looks a couple weeks after opening as well, especially if this Florida case trend continues. It's hard to gauge actual public Disney interest on a Disney related message board and a Disney Facebook AP group (which is a mess most of the time even before these times).
 

CastAStone

Wannabe Peoplemover Enthusiast.
Premium Member
I certainly won't be going to WDW until everything is back to "normal". I don't want to deal with the hassle of the COVID safety theater -- nor do I want to actually catch COVID -- and I'm not willing to pay the price for a lesser experience.
Not to mention flying. We are going to cancel our September planned trip. Holding out hope that things have improved enough that we can still do Disneyland by November.
 

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
Not to mention flying. We are going to cancel our September planned trip. Holding out hope that things have improved enough that we can still do Disneyland by November.

Right, which is another big issue some people aren't even considering.

Flying is very difficult at the moment if you have any COVID concern whatsoever, and the number of flights have also been drastically reduced. Even if you aren't worried about catching the virus, it could still be very hard to actually find flights to fit your schedule.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Not to mention flying. We are going to cancel our September planned trip. Holding out hope that things have improved enough that we can still do Disneyland by November.
Good point on flying too. I’m actually thinking about renting a cabin in the Smokey Mountains in August instead of WDW. It’s about a 10 hour drive but I can bring food and all my own stuff in the car and just chill out for a week. There are whole counties in that area with under 50 total cases since this all started so basically I just need to avoid the other tourists like me ;)
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
Right, which is another big issue some people aren't even considering.

Flying is very difficult at the moment if you have any COVID concern whatsoever, and the number of flights have also been drastically reduced. Even if you aren't worried about catching the virus, it could still be very hard to actually find flights to fit your schedule.
Breathing circulated air in a metal tube for a few hours sounds terrible. I wouldn't feel comfortable at all hopping in a plane right now.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'll admit I've been overall surprised by how low Universal's crowds have been the past few weeks. I thought they would hit capacity far more than they have. I'm very interested in seeing how Disney looks a couple weeks after opening as well, especially if this Florida case trend continues. It's hard to gauge actual public Disney interest on a Disney related message board and a Disney Facebook AP group (which is a mess most of the time even before these times).
Good point on flying too. I’m actually thinking about renting a cabin in the Smokey Mountains in August instead of WDW. It’s about a 10 hour drive but I can bring food and all my own stuff in the car and just chill out for a week. There are whole counties in that area with under 50 total cases since this all started so basically I just need to avoid the other tourists like me ;)
I think the big flaw in reopening theory to this point is the logistics of traveling to wdw...

It’s still ALOT of cash for a huge part of the customer base...mainly because it doesn’t make sense to go unless you’re committing to 7+ days.

That is a big commitment...especially in the new world of unknown.

People act like someone is gonna fly from Michigan or the UK and “just go home” if it sucks on day 2. That’s Anaheim thinking.

You have to be all in to go to Florida and few - even the way too many timers like me - want the hassle/stress of the logistics for the price.

Just isn’t worth it. Disney has been openly “luke warm” at best at opening as well. If they don’t feel inclined to want me there...it tells me what I need to know to make the right decision.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Breathing circulated air in a metal tube for a few hours sounds terrible. I wouldn't feel comfortable at all hopping in a plane right now.
Security lines, waiting at the gate, bathrooms at the airport, everyone pushing forward to board the plane, there’s so much stress with flying anyway just getting on the plane is a battle...then flying with a mask on the whole time. Not fun :(
 

marni1971

WDW History nut
Premium Member
Breathing circulated air in a metal tube for a few hours sounds terrible. I wouldn't feel comfortable at all hopping in a plane right now.
Fun fact. It’s not “circulated” as such. On average it’s mixed with fresh air every 2-4 minutes, and totally replaced every 8-10 minutes.

It also passes through medical grade filters before entering the cabin.
 
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TJ Vazquez

Premium Member
In the Parks
No
Not sure I understand the market share argument? I can't imagine there are people who had a Disney vacation planned but decided to go to Universal since Disney was closed, will all of the sudden only go to Universal in future trips. And with the exception of Harry Potter, Universal is more on par with a really good regional park, which there are plenty of in the northern US. I would say it hurts Universal more that Disney is closed then it helps, as Disney brings more people to central florida than UO does.
For Universal’s sake I hope there aren‘t too many people who never visited before and this is their first experience. Its not likely to leave a great taste in people’s mouth. It’s fine for regular visitors to go with all these restrictions knowing it’s a means to an end and that the full experience will be back some day but if this was your first and only experience with Universal and your only comparison is WDW in normal times it’s going to fall short. I don’t think WDW not being open impacts long term market share in any way.

I think you might be underestimating Universal's popularity a bit here.
 
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