Ticket Price Increase starts this Sunday!

[ford91exploder]

I'm not really convinced one way or another what they want for AP vs multi-day here. Magic 8ball tells me it's cloudy.

AP discounts/bundles/etc I look to be just as year-to-year as pricing, so I don't count on any of that in the future. It's also something they can manipulate with exemptions very easily.



This is what we've been saying for a long time.. but 'Disney is a business' crowd that thinks profits now is the only thing that matters don't comprehend. Success is the long run.. not profits for 5-10 years.

Success is Mitsukoshi, They've been in business for what 360 years and still going strong. Yet in the US companies are taken over by parasitic managers who destroy the work of decades in 5 years or so where the management has been permanently enriched but thousands of careers are destroyed and towns and cities are left with the wreckage.

 

[flynnibus]

On the other hand the imminent collapse of the Disney empire has been preached ever since at least I joined the site. That's at least 13 years. There's some folks opinion's you can look up with some digging that goes back to the late 90s with that opinion.

And I'd argue the change is already taking place and the perception of the parks/brand has changed. It's just hard to isolate the change in just the parks vs the other divisions.

 

[George]

And I'd argue the change is already taking place and the perception of the parks/brand has changed. It's just hard to isolate the change in just the parks vs the other divisions.

I agree with you based on opinions 'Normals' have shared with me on return from WDW, They don't come back raving how great it is and how they can't wait to go back. That's a problem no it's not going to show up in the next quarter's 10-K, The problem is Disney is no longer capturing MINDSHARE and creating REPEAT customers who saved their bacon in 2001 and 2008.

Maybe. Again, I'm sure with minimal effort I could pull up similar post from 10 years ago. With a little more effort probably even further back on other sites.

I'm not picking a side, but this song and dance is as old as songs that are now being played on classic rock stations.
Eh, nothing you say has any weight or validity. You could tell posters on this board the sky is blue and most of them would go outside and check.

Now we're talking big picture stuff and that is hard to quantify. Oftentimes in these arguments, everyone makes valid points and this is an example. I do think the view of WDW isn't as rosy in the general population as it used to be based on many interactions with people. However, Mr. Jakeman is also right. The doom of the Disney themed recreational areas seems to be far away and almost certainly not on the horizon despite predictions of constant doom. Perhaps, it is merely the fact that the population always expands since many find reproduction fun and even though a lower fraction of the public raves about Disney vacations, this fraction multiplied by the number of potential visitors either stays the same or slowly rises. In either case, it doesn't really matter. All any of us can do is to look at the value we get and determine whether or not it is worth it. However, I'm not being critical of any of you. I, too, wonder about this. Is there a breaking point where attendance will fall dramatically? Does Disney have all this figured out and knows exactly what it is doing with each increase coming close to maximizing their Platonic ideal of revenue/profit? Or is this a reaction to failings in other area of the company with various bigwigs crossing their fingers and hoping that their offerings to the gods will continue to yield fruit as Orlando maintains its status as cash cow?

 

[erikjp]

Now we're talking big picture stuff and that is hard to quantify. Oftentimes in these arguments, everyone makes valid points and this is an example. I do think the view of WDW isn't as rosy in the general population as it used to be based on many interactions with people. However, Mr. Jakeman is also right. The doom of the Disney themed recreational areas seems to be far away and almost certainly not on the horizon despite predictions of constant doom. Perhaps, it is merely the fact that the population always expands since many find reproduction fun and even though a lower fraction of the public raves about Disney vacations, this fraction multiplied by the number of potential visitors either stays the same or slowly rises. In either case, it doesn't really matter. All any of us can do is to look at the value we get and determine whether or not it is worth it. However, I'm not being critical of any of you. I, too, wonder about this. Is there a breaking point where attendance will fall dramatically? Does Disney have all this figured out and knows exactly what it is doing with each increase coming close to maximizing their Platonic ideal of revenue/profit? Or is this a reaction to failings in other area of the company with various bigwigs crossing their fingers and hoping that their offerings to the gods will continue to yield fruit as Orlando maintains its status as cash cow?

Honestly, I don't think their is ever some breaking point (barring some monumental disaster, bombing at MK or a great depression like event). Disney's goodwill is so huge that they could of extreme amounts of their customer base, but the pixie dusters will come regardless of whatever Disney does to them, and they could survive based merely on this demographic.

Also, the Disney corporation has so much money if at any point the parks start getting so bad it becomes a noticeable problem and attendance starts going permanently down, they would just put some money into the parks and spruce them up to the point the ill will is covered up and people will come again. If it gets really bad they might just build a new gate and voila! everything has changed.

Also, with Star Wars coming down the line they've just gained a new legion of pixie dusters. Star Wars fans are intense. I have friends who pay thousands just to attend Star Wars meetups or events. They will pay that to get into Disney World.

 

[21stamps]

I agree with you based on opinions 'Normals' have shared with me on return from WDW, They don't come back raving how great it is and how they can't wait to go back. That's a problem no it's not going to show up in the next quarter's 10-K, The problem is Disney is no longer capturing MINDSHARE and creating REPEAT customers who saved their bacon in 2001 and 2008.

When I read people say things like this here is what I wonder.. Do the people you know have young children?
My circle of friends, acquaintances, kid's classmates, and family are doing WDW every year. Some do a day or a few days at Uni/IoA during that trip, some don't, most still go on other vacations outside of Disney during the year..but, they still go..year after year. I personally know at least one family per month who are at WDW.

Point being, I don't think that a circle of personal friends/fam/acquaintances are a good judge of the overall customer viewpoint. If you judge by mine then you would think the whole world goes often..that's what I feel like anyway lol. I think it has a lot to do with the age of my child/his classmates and my friend's children.
We aren't "holding off for a land to open", no way..the most magical years of our children's lives are right now.

 

[DisneyJoe]

When I read people say things like this here is what I wonder.. Do the people you know have young children?
My circle of friends, acquaintances, kid's classmates, and family are doing WDW every year. Some do a day or a few days at Uni/IoA during that trip, some don't, most still go on other vacations outside of Disney during the year..but, they still go..year after year. I personally know at least one family per month who are at WDW.

Point being, I don't think that a circle of personal friends/fam/acquaintances are a good judge of the overall customer viewpoint. If you judge by mine then you would think the whole world goes often..that's what I feel like anyway lol. I think it has a lot to do with the age of my child/his classmates and my friend's children.
We aren't "holding off for a land to open", no way..the most magical years of our children's lives are right now.

My travel agency business is also growing year over year, and much of that is based on repeat clients who go every year and sometimes multiple times per year, and in some cases they are taking friends with them, who then begin the cycle of going the next year with their friends, etc. When they think they are getting tired of Disney, they tell me that they want to try another destination, so they try an Alaskan cruise or somewhere else, and then they come back to a Disney trip.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

My travel agency business is also growing year over year, and much of that is based on repeat clients who go every year and sometimes multiple times per year, and in some cases they are taking friends with them, who then begin the cycle of going the next year with their friends, etc. When they think they are getting tired of Disney, they tell me that they want to try another destination, so they try an Alaskan cruise or somewhere else, and then they come back to a Disney trip.

But that doesn't fit with the naysayers message, so you must be lying and a stooge of evil Iger.

 

[21stamps]

My travel agency business is also growing year over year, and much of that is based on repeat clients who go every year and sometimes multiple times per year, and in some cases they are taking friends with them, who then begin the cycle of going the next year with their friends, etc. When they think they are getting tired of Disney, they tell me that they want to try another destination, so they try an Alaskan cruise or somewhere else, and then they come back to a Disney trip.

Hey we're doing an Alaskan cruise/Olympic Peninsula trip in June/July. I haven't forgotten about WDW, and don't love them any less..but they will never get my entire annual travel budget.lol

I think what you said about friends is important though..when you see all of your friend's photos and hear about their trips..or when your kid comes home from school talking about how he "must see the new Star Wars fireworks" it does make you think about booking another WDW trip.

 

[DisneyJoe]

But that doesn't fit with the naysayers message, so you must be lying and a stooge of evil Iger.

Well, they are paying me commission for booking Disney trips, LOL

 

[Kevin_W]

Eh, nothing you say has any weight or validity. You could tell posters on this board the sky is blue and most of them would go outside and check.

I live in Ohio... the sky is gray.

 

[xdan0920]

My travel agency business is also growing year over year, and much of that is based on repeat clients who go every year and sometimes multiple times per year, and in some cases they are taking friends with them, who then begin the cycle of going the next year with their friends, etc. When they think they are getting tired of Disney, they tell me that they want to try another destination, so they try an Alaskan cruise or somewhere else, and then they come back to a Disney trip.

That growth is probably more down to your ability to grow your business then anything WDW is doing. WDW attendance is unarguably down. They said so themselves in their little financial report. It's marginal, sure, but it's still down.

Anyhoo, carry on y'all.

 

[flynnibus]

Now we're talking big picture stuff and that is hard to quantify. Oftentimes in these arguments, everyone makes valid points and this is an example of this. I do think the view of WDW isn't as rosy in the general population as it used to be based on many interactions with people. However, Mr. Jakeman is also right. The doom of the Disney themed recreational areas seems to be far away and almost certainly not on the horizon despite predictions of constant doom

I think it's hyperbole if people talk like the whole thing shutting down.. but the place the product has in people's lives, how they approach it, etc.. I think that is already happening. I think you have four types of people

- people who would never give Disney a chance period
- people who aspire to visit disney based on what they've heard about it
- people who visit disney as a vacation option among other options
- people who visit disney and continue to visit disney and find it to be their peak spot

The second group is the funnel that Disney built with it's reputation. It's also the group that is vunerable to bad press, shifting interests, and the one that Disney's image impacts the most. The third group is going to exist as long as Disney puts out a 'good enough' product, even if they are down compared to what they were before. The fourth group is the one that is vunerable to Disney dropping its standards and how it treats customers.

Disney can torpedo the fourth group... while still having plenty of runway from the 2nd and 3rd group.. but they will shrink the 4th that was their base and some of their best customers. If they hurt the 3rd and 4th group.. they start to impact their funnel in the 2nd group. It takes awhile, but that erosion works its way through.

I mean you can see the change even in members here... customers that used to treat WDW like heaven... now are skeptics and often shake off the negatives to focus on the positives they still hold dear.

I think alot of the 'lifer' based of that fourth group has been weakened. The reality is Disney built up so much in it's first 80 years of life, it takes a lot to wear that down when there isn't drastic, brutal change.

The change is going to be seen in the types of champions Disney builds now.. vs what they had in the past. It will take a lot more to move the needle dramatically on the less faithful.. because of the image Disney has built, and the funnel they still maintain OUTSIDE the parks.. with things like The Disney Channel, Disney Music, etc.

 

[flynnibus]

Maybe. Again, I'm sure with minimal effort I could pull up similar post from 10 years ago. With a little more effort probably even further back on other sites.

Are Disney parks expanding and growing like it did in the 80s and 90s? That's not to say growth is eternal... but it is a reflection of strains (or not) on capacity.

Most of the growth has been in expanding the brand to different markets and different verticals. If you take all that away and focus on just the domestic parks, how they function, and their draws.. do you think the trend line is really upward the way it was through the prior 40 years?

The shift has been increasingly towards milking what they have, vs improving/innovating what they offer. It's been drives to operational efficiencies and pushing monetization rather than driving true new demand. When you think about the two biggest changes in the last 10+ years... Magic Your Way.. and the MDE projects... they've all been driven by the idea of RETENTION rather than creating demand. (throw DVC in there too)

The true result is obfuscated by Disney being much more than the parks themselves and what is being reported. Disney has been masterful at filling out the calendar year to drive demand in the last 5+ years.. but that trick has been used up. Now they are turning to gimmicks to sell 'convenience' to drive growth.. but that too will eventually dry up (and potentially harm more). Then what?

Disney has been pretty good with seeing just how far they can go before the camel's back gives out (see EPCOT, DHS). But they've always kicked in something before the whole thing turns south. They keep stretching just how far they can push that.. the question is will it break?

Just because they've dodged the train.. doesn't mean it hasn't been by.

 

[George]

I think it's hyperbole if people talk like the whole thing shutting down.. but the place the product has in people's lives, how they approach it, etc.. I think that is already happening. I think you have four types of people

- people who would never give Disney a chance period
- people who aspire to visit disney based on what they've heard about it
- people who visit disney as a vacation option among other options
- people who visit disney and continue to visit disney and find it to be their peak spot

The second group is the funnel that Disney built with it's reputation. It's also the group that is vunerable to bad press, shifting interests, and the one that Disney's image impacts the most. The third group is going to exist as long as Disney puts out a 'good enough' product, even if they are down compared to what they were before. The fourth group is the one that is vunerable to Disney dropping its standards and how it treats customers.

Disney can torpedo the fourth group... while still having plenty of runway from the 2nd and 3rd group.. but they will shrink the 4th that was their base and some of their best customers. If they hurt the 3rd and 4th group.. they start to impact their funnel in the 2nd group. It takes awhile, but that erosion works its way through.

I mean you can see the change even in members here... customers that used to treat WDW like heaven... now are skeptics and often shake off the negatives to focus on the positives they still hold dear.

I think alot of the 'lifer' based of that fourth group has been weakened. The reality is Disney built up so much in it's first 80 years of life, it takes a lot to wear that down when there isn't drastic, brutal change.

The change is going to be seen in the types of champions Disney builds now.. vs what they had in the past. It will take a lot more to move the needle dramatically on the less faithful.. because of the image Disney has built, and the funnel they still maintain OUTSIDE the parks.. with things like The Disney Channel, Disney Music, etc.

I really like your 4 groups and description of the funnel. The only thing I can think of to refine it a bit is to put the 4 groups on a line with the first and last groups being endpoints, making it a continuum. This helps with your slight erosion model because then instead of having to be quantized into a unique group we can then think of lots of data points moving around the continuum. I've spent most of my life close to the far right of this continuum (with that being point 4, people who visit Disney and consider it their peak spot) and have even moved people who were between points 1 and 2, into point 2 and eventually some of those people have moved towards and in some cases past point 3. It has been quite a while since I've done that convincing though.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

I wonder if Disney will increase prices again this year like they did a year or two ago? And people will still pay the amount and go.

 

[doctornick]

The 1983 3-Day WorldPassports I still have are always a option, too.....that is, unless Disney decides to outdate and automatically expire ALL ticket media from the past.
Don't think they would'nt consider it....nothing surprises me now with how the Florida Parks are run

I don't think they could/would refuse to accept those tickets, but I believe others have said that they will only honor them for the parks that existed at the time of the ticket. So, those would basically be 3 day park hoppers for MK and Epcot only.

 

[jakeman]

Are Disney parks expanding and growing like it did in the 80s and 90s? That's not to say growth is eternal... but it is a reflection of strains (or not) on capacity.

Most of the growth has been in expanding the brand to different markets and different verticals. If you take all that away and focus on just the domestic parks, how they function, and their draws.. do you think the trend line is really upward the way it was through the prior 40 years?

The shift has been increasingly towards milking what they have, vs improving/innovating what they offer. It's been drives to operational efficiencies and pushing monetization rather than driving true new demand. When you think about the two biggest changes in the last 10+ years... Magic Your Way.. and the MDE projects... they've all been driven by the idea of RETENTION rather than creating demand. (throw DVC in there too)

The true result is obfuscated by Disney being much more than the parks themselves and what is being reported. Disney has been masterful at filling out the calendar year to drive demand in the last 5+ years.. but that trick has been used up. Now they are turning to gimmicks to sell 'convenience' to drive growth.. but that too will eventually dry up (and potentially harm more). Then what?

Disney has been pretty good with seeing just how far they can go before the camel's back gives out (see EPCOT, DHS). But they've always kicked in something before the whole thing turns south. They keep stretching just how far they can push that.. the question is will it break?

Just because they've dodged the train.. doesn't mean it hasn't been by.

Eh, different year, same post. Twenty times over.

You might be right. History would say otherwise.

 

[flynnibus]

Eh, different year, same post. Twenty times over.

Thanks for the reminder of why you are on ignore.. inability to carry an sense of an intelligent conversation. Shame on me for clicking the link. Lesson learned.

 

[flynnibus]

I don't think they could/would refuse to accept those tickets, but I believe others have said that they will only honor them for the parks that existed at the time of the ticket. So, those would basically be 3 day park hoppers for MK and Epcot only.

They don't have a way of making a ticket work for just some parks AFAIK (minus the MK ticket now). And every old ticket I've used has always been good for every park. It's only been a question of if its a park hopper and how many days it had left. Using my old discovery island tickets.. now that was a much longer conversation I don't think they wanted to give me anything for them...

 

[Figments Friend]

I don't think they could/would refuse to accept those tickets, but I believe others have said that they will only honor them for the parks that existed at the time of the ticket. So, those would basically be 3 day park hoppers for MK and Epcot only.

And that is indeed correct.


I am perfectly fine with three days at MK and Epcot in the far future.
I've been holding on to that 83' WorldPassport for ages....well, since 1983!
That was a good $35 investment.
Not in any real hurry to use it up just yet.
My old 4-Day PH from 2012 will handle all four Parks whenever I decide to visit WDW again.


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