News Theme parks way up

[HauntedPirate]

How much does the rampant expansion of DVC members have to do with this? I recently bought in and feel that no matter what the state of things I’ll be walking the parks 2 of every 3 years for the foreeeable future. What other businesses can lock customers in for 40+ yrs?

I can't find the exact, up-to-date numbers, but the number of DVC rooms was roughly 1/10 of the number of standard resort rooms last time I checked. Even if you figure they hold twice the number of people than a standard resort room, you're at 1/5 the number of people that could be in DVC rooms vs. standard resort rooms.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The consumers will have to get fed up of the crowds/pricing and start to walk away...or massive economic downturns.

Those are the only 2 options to stop a freight train with no brakes

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How much does the rampant expansion of DVC members have to do with this? I recently bought in and feel that no matter what the state of things I’ll be walking the parks 2 of every 3 years for the foreeeable future. What other businesses can lock customers in for 40+ yrs?

Well...since you asked.

Dvc I think is more key to driving prices up...not so much growing the raw crowds: dvc rooms provide significant numbers...but I think the bigger impact is that they are 100% guaranteed to be occupied - which allows them to use other inventory in promos or shift it as needed - and that captive audience is likely to pay no matter the price. Even if they get increasingly disgruntled. Disney doesn't care...you're on a contract.

It's a great system...born of the Eisner era to build a consistent frequent client base. Now it's being used as a weapon against them. How convenient.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can't find the exact, up-to-date numbers, but the number of DVC rooms was roughly 1/10 of the number of standard resort rooms last time I checked. Even if you figure they hold twice the number of people than a standard resort room, you're at 1/5 the number of people that could be in DVC rooms vs. standard resort rooms.

There were 33,000 on property rooms after pop opened...leading to dvc expansion. I think villas were under 2,000 then...with saratoga, gf, contemporary, kidani...and conversions of poly, wilderness, and AK...it's probably 6000 ish of 37,000 or so?

Just guessing...somebody can look it up.

So like 15-20-% of total rooms.

 

[trainplane3]

You don't want to know. Wait, yes you do.

Honestly, I think it would take $200+/day park admission, $2000 for an AP, and the cheapest resort room (All-Star level and similar) at $500/night to put a dent in attendance at this point.

Edit: I say "at this point", because guests now are basically frogs in a pot of water. Disney can turn the temp of the water up gradually (ie. relatively-small price increases year over year) and no one notices. You need something to shock them. Those kinds of prices would shock people.

I agree with this to a point. If there were new attractions rolling in consistently, then I probably wouldn't have any issue with the rising ticket prices. But WDW slowed down heavily in the past couple years. If there was something on the scale of the Mickey ride or the Rat coming every 3 years, I'd probably be fine. But stuff like Mission: Space RELAUNCHED (completely expected refurb) or replacing 3 attractions with 3 attractions doesn't count at all (you took away some decent rides and replaced them with...decent rides?). SW:GE is going to be incredible and that would justify a price increase (Avatar too)...if it wasn't so high already. I want to see WDW grow, not replace everything which does nothing for overall capacity.

Earlier this week I started looking at DLP prices as a joke since a friend mentioned it. Aside from airfare, it doesn't look too bad. I can get a direct flight from Pittsburgh to CDG, grab a TGV to DLP, enjoy 3 days there, then go to Paris and explore (get completely lost) for a decent price thanks to a developed public transit system, but of course get gouged on the hotel in the city though. I think a DLP trip might happen sooner rather then later.

Or I say screw it and go to Tokyo and enjoy what I've heard is "WDW in the 80's where everything is clean and maintained". Plus I need to see TDS.

 

[jaxonp]

I agree with this to a point. If there were new attractions rolling in consistently, then I probably wouldn't have any issue with the rising ticket prices. But WDW slowed down heavily in the past couple years. If there was something on the scale of the Mickey ride or the Rat coming every 3 years, I'd probably be fine. But stuff like Mission: Space RELAUNCHED (completely expected refurb) or replacing 3 attractions with 3 attractions doesn't count at all (you took away some decent rides and replaced them with...decent rides?). SW:GE is going to be incredible and that would justify a price increase (Avatar too)...if it wasn't so high already. I want to see WDW grow, not replace everything which does nothing for overall capacity.

Earlier this week I started looking at DLP prices as a joke since a friend mentioned it. Aside from airfare, it doesn't look too bad. I can get a direct flight from Pittsburgh to CDG, grab a TGV to DLP, enjoy 3 days there, then go to Paris and explore (get completely lost) for a decent price thanks to a developed public transit system, but of course get gouged on the hotel in the city though. I think a DLP trip might happen sooner rather then later.

Or I say screw it and go to Tokyo and enjoy what I've heard is "WDW in the 80's where everything is clean and maintained". Plus I need to see TDS.

DLP is amazing as is Paris. You don’t need to spend more than 150 a night in Paris. Just find a hotel on the metro and zoom around for so cheap.

 

[HauntedPirate]

There were 33,000 on property rooms after pop opened...leading to dvc expansion. I think villas were under 2,000 then...with saratoga, gf, contemporary, kidani...and conversions of poly, wilderness, and AK...it's probably 6000 ish of 37,000 or so?

Just guessing...somebody can look it up.

So like 15-20-% of total rooms.

Found some additional info. According to TouringPlans, there are just under 31,000 total rooms on property, and of that about 4500 are DVC rooms.

I agree - DVC isn't the driving force behind the crowds at the parks. But there's no guarantee that a DVC room will be occupied on any given night.

 

[jaxonp]

Found some additional info. According to TouringPlans, there are just under 31,000 total rooms on property, and of that about 4500 are DVC rooms.

I agree - DVC isn't the driving force behind the crowds at the parks. But there's no guarantee that a DVC room will be occupied on any given night.

Are you a DVC member?

 

[HauntedPirate]

Are you a DVC member?

Since 2005.

 

[Capsin4]

I remember the days when cynics claimed TDO and Iger would cause WDW to be auctioned off in lots.

For you new to these boards, that really was the claim. Of 'insiders' no less.

Some also said Pandora was an idea doomed to fail.

Star Wars Land opens in 2019.

Then the MKs 50th.

Some on the boards also said the boat ride wasn’t happening well after Pandora was on the way.

 

[matt9112]

Frozen and Soarin are the best things in that park. Everything else is walk ons.

are you high? SSE......

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Found some additional info. According to TouringPlans, there are just under 31,000 total rooms on property, and of that about 4500 are DVC rooms.

I agree - DVC isn't the driving force behind the crowds at the parks. But there's no guarantee that a DVC room will be occupied on any given night.

You are right on the numbers...it was 26,000 at that time...i don't know how I forgot that

As far as occupancy....now with all year travelers you don't have a very high percentage of empty rooms...it's probably 20% Saratoga and 0.2% everywhere else

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Since 2005.

...that's a good vintage

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

My point was the resorts are packed yet the rides are under serviced and under staffed But thanks for pointing out the parents take their kids out of school. I thought they were all home schooled or drop outs at age 8..

We were at the MK tonight and they were having lots of problems with Splash Mountain (again) after a lengthy refurbishment

 

[LucasCole]

are you high? SSE......

I still can’t get used to SSE being a 25+ min wait. We didn’t get on it this last trip.

 

[HauntedPirate]

...that's a good vintage

It was a good time to buy in, $87/pt after incentives. The only bad part is we own at Saratoga. But, at the time and for several years after, you could book elsewhere at 7 months. Haven't been able to do that for years now, unless you get lucky.

 

[HauntedPirate]

You are right on the numbers...it was 26,000 at that time...i don't know how I forgot that

As far as occupancy....now with all year travelers you don't have a very high percentage of empty rooms...it's probably 20% Saratoga and 0.2% everywhere else

That's true. And even Saratoga is booked pretty solid these days.

 

[trainplane3]

It was a good time to buy in, $87/pt after incentives. The only bad part is we own at Saratoga. But, at the time and for several years after, you could book elsewhere at 7 months. Haven't been able to do that for years now, unless you get lucky.

We joined when they were still building the DVC's for WL, so 98/99?. I remember my parents complaining that they wouldn't stop bugging us to buy into Saratoga when it was being built. We avoided it like crazy. I finally stayed at Saratoga last year and actually liked it a lot. I guess if you don't like walking then it isn't too great but I liked the overall resort. MUCH better then Bay Lake. Well, BL's lounge is pretty great but that's it. I haven't watched fireworks in the park in like 5+ years?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We joined when they were still building the DVC's for WL, so 98/99?. I remember my parents complaining that they wouldn't stop bugging us to buy into Saratoga when it was being built. We avoided it like crazy. I finally stayed at Saratoga last year and actually liked it a lot. I guess if you don't like walking then it isn't too great but I liked the overall resort. MUCH better then Bay Lake. Well, BL's lounge is pretty great but that's it. I haven't watched fireworks in the park in like 5+ years?

Saratoga sucked for the first 10 years...but now with at least the option of so much stuff across the lake (even if they punted on much of it)...it's far more appealing...

Remember that they had to add two large pools since construction...and even ( ghast ) an actual food service area requiring employees!

...most don't stop to think what a gut wrenching step that is for them...it's why they really don't add any service with add ons and conversions...it's just lip service.

Saratoga was housing bubble stupidly (and the early template for iger) of how to exploit and do it blatantly. It was a failed property that they repackaced and overbuilt.

But...BUT...it's actually better now with some tweaks. I don't know if that's an incredibly good thing...or an awful one.

Ok...jack over.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It was a good time to buy in, $87/pt after incentives. The only bad part is we own at Saratoga. But, at the time and for several years after, you could book elsewhere at 7 months. Haven't been able to do that for years now, unless you get lucky.

Ditto...though points must have been slow because I paid in the high $70's

As far as booking...and I see this a lot.

Grand Floridian...today, actually, just to try it out and then 6 at beach club

Jambo over spring break via waitlist booked less than 3 months out...

It's definitely tough...very much hit or miss. But I think it's all about flexibility, recomputibg the system and expectations. If I get to the point where i can't move around...I'm out baby. That's a lot of ancillary cash withheld...which is the entire point for them.

But you have to shift. My mother in law still calls (who does that????) trying to get rooms 2 months out...then gets mad. She was given Hilton head for $42 a point...
What's the price they sell you used crap for now?? I think that's a shift on the other side of the chess board...saturation took hold.

...things change...and economics isn't that hard to figure out.