The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
It is what it is...but they are building and it looks like they do have a plan.
It's exciting to me. Star Wars, Avatar, Harry Potter. These crazy worlds we see on film are being created for us to explore.

Hope Universal and Disney continue building the imaginations of some very creative talent!

Disney does indeed have a plan and as stated by Iger multiple times to reduce CAPEX in the P&R segments to under 10% and increase stock buybacks as P&R is a 'mature non-growth segment'. Not sure how that's going to deliver 'world class attractions' but hey what do I know.
 

Mike S

Well-Known Member
Disney does indeed have a plan and as stated by Iger multiple times to reduce CAPEX in the P&R segments to under 10% and increase stock buybacks as P&R is a 'mature non-growth segment'. Not sure how that's going to deliver 'world class attractions' but hey what do I know.
Oy vey.............. What exactly would we see at that point? Things could be literally falling apart from lack of maintenance if they aren't already and we'll be waiting even longer between new rides. I have so many words I could use to describe Bob Iger but since this is a family site I'll go with poo poo head. Such a disgrace to the company's legacy.............
 

Nemo14

Well-Known Member
Oy vey.............. What exactly would we see at that point? Things could be literally falling apart from lack of maintenance if they aren't already and we'll be waiting even longer between new rides. I have so many words I could use to describe Bob Iger but since this is a family site I'll go with poo poo head. Such a disgrace to the company's legacy.............
make that "Magical Poopy Head"
 

choco choco

Well-Known Member
Gotta say, WDI's Toontown idea is weird. By what metric are they saying it is "underutilized?" Toontown is always crowded.

It seems to me they are just being lazy. Rather than thinking of creative ways to trim and tuck and push and pull and slip and snip into Tomorrowland, they just want to blow up a previous generations (pretty good) work for their own ends. You know, because they can't be bothered to think of anything else. Selfish and not a little bit disappointing. Where's the innovation?
 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
Disney does indeed have a plan and as stated by Iger multiple times to reduce CAPEX in the P&R segments to under 10% and increase stock buybacks as P&R is a 'mature non-growth segment'. Not sure how that's going to deliver 'world class attractions' but hey what do I know.
Did Iger really say that? I've never heard him talk about P&R as a non-growth or mature segment. When did he make these comments?
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
The first column is the wait time with Fastpass. The next columns show what the wait the wait time would be if Fastpass was eliminated. The reason for different columns is because the numbers vary depending on if you assume that Fastpass makes up 70, 65, 60, 55 or 50% of the first column. The formula is pretty simple
("Standby with Fastpass"*(1-"Fastpass Usage %"))+("Desired Fastpass Wait" * " Fastpass Usage %")

I'm not sure where you got this model from... But it does not model the wait time as you describe. You need to clarify it is the wait AS SEEN FROM standby - not attraction wait. It fails to handle the 5min post merge calculation correctly. If fp = 0, your model would give you the same exact time as your standby w fp at 70%. (It should give you a 70% reduction in wait). It also fails with fp=100 and says your wait is 5min regardless of any other input. ( it should be 5 * 1.3)

What you are actually trying to describe is to compare the ratio of capacity attributed to each line and back that out of an observed number at a known ratio.

If you set out to ignore the feedback loop in demand for the attraction (which pretty much invalidates the practicality of the exercise) you simply have the ratio of capacity allocated to each line. You assume the wait line is linear function so you can scale the observed wait by the line ratios. But since the last 5 mins of your wait are different (post merge) you have to back that out of your observed time and calculate that separately.

Or.. Do what most scientists do when doing napkin math and call the variation insignificant to the larger number and just drop that part of the equation when doing estimates.

Then it's just ratios. 'Backing out fp impact' on a known standby wait (and ignoring post merge) is

Wait - (fp %)*wait

But it's purely academic and doesn't provide any value because it doesn't model the feedback loop on demand.... Which in itself is highly dependent on previous wait expectations. And wait is dependent on demand and capacity. So a instaneous wait value is not really scalable on its own.

You can say 7 out of 10 people are fp people so my current wait is 70% attributed to fp... But you can't just throw those users out in isolation and realistically say my wait would be 70% lower without fp.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Many point to the Frank Wells' death in 1994 as the beginning of the 'bad' Michael Eisner years. From a show perspective at the theme parks, there is some merit to this.

Insiders recall a time when (heaven forbid) they were being required to justify budgets. It's also the time when places like Main Street USA were transformed from experiences in and of themselves into shopping malls. :(

Even during these years, Eisner continued to invest in Disney's Parks & Resorts (P&R) segment.

Budgets tend to be evaluated from an expense vs. revenue perspective. How much is being spent vs. how much is being brought in? Expenses tend to be divided into operating expense (the cost of day-to-day operations) and capital expense (improvements). Disney often refers to capex as "investing activities".

Investing activities include theme park improvements that are easily recognizable such as Cars Land, New Fantasyland, and Pandora.

It also includes required upgrades to P&R's tremendous physical assets, what Disney CFO Jay Rasulo refers to as "FF&E and maintenance capital" (FF&E = "Furniture, Fixtures, and Equipment"). Rasulo said that this "FF&E and maintenance capital" budget back in 2006 was "about $1 billion [...] being an ongoing level without special projects added to it".

In 2011, Rasulo said that the capex budget was even higher (without specifying a number) due additional projects needing more "maintenance capital". With inflation, it seems the current capex budget "without special projects" is at least $1.5 billion. In other words, if corporate Disney did not add to any of its theme parks, it still would spend about $1.5 billion annually just to keep its facilities current.

This number is important to remember when looking at P&R's investing activities in order to recognize exactly how much is being spent to improve the theme parks (at least the kinds of improvements that can be advertised as such to potential buyers).

In 2013, Disney's Domestic P&R investing activities were $1.14 billion, while its International activities were $970 million. Remove the "FF&E and maintenance capital" expenditures and the money committed to Shanghai Disneyland, and it's apparent that very little is left for improvements at Disney's numerous other existing theme parks throughout the rest of the world.

All of this was just to give you an idea of how Disney can spend $2.2 billion annually in P&R capex and yet we see very little added at WDW.

Now we have to put this in historical perspective.

In 2013, Disney's P&R segment took in $14.1 billion. That $2.2 billion in capex represents 15.0% of P&R revenue. 15.0% sounds like a lot but, hopefully as I've shown above, Disney can spend 15% and yet fans see little added to WDW.

From 1994 to 2005 (supposedly Eisner's 'bad' years), Disney averaged 24.5% P&R investing, including the very lean years of 2002 and 2003, when the vacation industry collapsed.

Last year, Comcast spent 26% on its Theme Parks investments.

During his 8 full years as Disney CEO, Bob Iger has averaged just 14.1%. His best year of investment was 23.1% in 2011 (think Cars Land and cruise ships), which is below Eisner's average during his 'bad' years.

Let's put Eisner's 24.5% average into terms we can understand today. The difference between 24.5% and Iger's 15.0% in 2013 is $1.3 billion annually. Just imagine what could be built with an extra $1.3 billion invested every year.

When it comes to Disney's Parks & Resorts, anyone who thinks Iger is an improvement over Eisner even in Eisner's worst years should pay closer attention to the numbers.

Quick financial question.... How much stock has Disney issued? I know there 1.7B shares outstanding but we're talking terms I dont fully speak.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
Oy vey.............. What exactly would we see at that point? Things could be literally falling apart from lack of maintenance if they aren't already and we'll be waiting even longer between new rides. I have so many words I could use to describe Bob Iger but since this is a family site I'll go with poo poo head. Such a disgrace to the company's legacy.............

The new term is 'lower than a fossil fart' - A really neat turn of phrase!
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
"underutilized?" Toontown is always crowded.

image.jpg
 

the.dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
Im looking but I cant easily find them. CNBC I think but I'm honestly not sure.

I have heard that referenced before tho
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/mobile...-82/disney-park-california-adventure.html.csp
In an interview with The Associated Press in March, Iger said that even though the parks and resorts division doesn’t make as much in profit as the company’s TV properties like ESPN and Disney Channel, they are a link in the Disney ecosystem that connects people back to its characters, movies and shows.

“It’s not just about being in the media business. It’s about being in the Disney business,” he said.

The investment in parks and resorts has hit $10.5 billion since Iger became CEO in October 2005, significantly more than the $8.2 billion predecessor Michael Eisner spent in the last seven years of his tenure.

Over the same time, Disney’s stock has nearly doubled from $24.13 to $46.24.

“They’ve set themselves up for long-term growth in the parks business through these strategic investments,” said Tony Wible, an analyst with Janney Capital Markets. “I would have thought it was a pretty mature asset but they’re managing to squeeze some real growth out of it.”
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
Did Iger really say that? I've never heard him talk about P&R as a non-growth or mature segment. When did he make these comments?

Iger in several interviews on CNBC has referred to P&R as a 'mature' business.

He's also discussed reducing P&R CAPEX in a few investor calls. I also am having dificulty tracking the actual interviews down @WDW1974 has referenced this a few times as I recall in other threads Spirit probably has a better grasp of the source material.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Quick financial question.... How much stock has Disney issued? I know there 1.7B shares outstanding but we're talking terms I dont fully speak.
See the chart here.

Over the last 4 years, Disney has taken about 250 million shares (roughly 15% of today's outstanding shares) out of circulation. At today's stock price, that's about $17 billion.

Overall, the company is performing well financially but it's also not difficult to understand what happens to a stock price when one entity buys 250 million shares. :D
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
It seems like an odd statement given the recent financial success of the segment. You usually don't drop billions on new investments into a mature, non-growth segment of your business.

You have to spend SOME money unless you are going to shutter the asset. The money spent in WDW is considerable but it's just maintaining what they already have there has not been anything NEW for a long time and they are shuttering restaurants etc in the face of record crowds.

The lack of regular maintenance has made the fixes they are doing much more expensive. Where the third shift used to do paint touchups daily now the chips are left to the elements and now the paint job is no longer a quick sand and wipe with paint thinner for prep. Now its repair rot (on wood) and corrosion (on metal) before you can paint. This is Florida not the Arizona desert. So now a paint repair which might have taken 2 minutes tops is now a several hour job with a concomitant increase in cost.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
See the chart here.

Over the last 4 years, Disney has taken about 250 million shares (roughly 15% of today's outstanding shares) out of circulation. At today's stock price, that's about $17 billion.

Overall, the company is performing well financially but it's also not difficult to understand what happens to a stock price when one entity buys 250 million shares. :D

Imagine what $DIS could have done with even 20% of that if they believed in their product...
 

CinematicFusion

Well-Known Member
See the chart here.

Over the last 4 years, Disney has taken about 250 million shares (roughly 15% of today's outstanding shares) out of circulation. At today's stock price, that's about $17 billion.

Overall, the company is performing well financially but it's also not difficult to understand what happens to a stock price when one entity buys 250 million shares. :D

It's a smart move. Apple is doing a huge buyback. You are right though...need to keep the product up. Disney keeps selling merchandise, keeps creating great movies...they will be fine.
They own..
1.Pixar
2.Marvel
3.Lucasfilm
4. Disney Animation has been holding their end recently as well.

Disney is a powerhouse, buybacks right now is a great move.

speaking of...what is a buyback at a bar? In Texas I've never heard of it.
 

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