The challenge with adding a limited number of attractions to an existing theme park is that those attractions tend to draw more Guests than they have capacity for. Let's look at Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (SDMT).
touringplans.com estimates that SDMT has an average hourly capacity of between 1500-to-1600 riders per hour. At 1600/hour, that translates into 22,400 riders in a 14-hour day (9-to-11).
The Magic Kingdom's (MK) average daily attendance is over 50K, leaving most Guests frustrated at not being able to ride SDMT.
Meanwhile, the MK's attendance is up about 5%, translating into an extra 2500 Guests. Guests don't ride a single attraction and leave; they ride multiple attractions. Assuming a relatively modest 10 rides per day at MK, that works out to 25,000 extra riders.
Attractions such as the SDMT and
Frozen meet-and-greets add capacity but they often fail to keep up with increased demand.
The same phenomenon could happen at Disney's Animal Kingdom (DAK) and Disney's Hollywood Studios (DHS) as new lands are added. New attractions will draw more Guests, almost certainly making the parks feel more crowded.
A goal of the upcoming additions at these 2 parks is to turn them into full-day parks. Even if total gate clicks increases modestly, these parks will feel more crowded throughout the day since people will stay at them longer.
Crowd levels are the single biggest source of customer dissatisfaction. In order to keep people coming, Disney needs to keep people happy. Disney needs to find ways to make the parks feel less crowded, not more crowded.
Disney needs to increase WDW capacity in a meaningful way in order to relieve some of the strain at the current theme parks, while also adding capacity for future growth, growth that will result in increased revenue and profit.
A
fully-realized 5th WDW theme park will add significant Guest capacity to support at least an additional 10 million gate clicks annually. New lands at DAK and DHS are not going to do that.
Yes, DAK and DHS need new lands.
However, by the middle of the next decade, WDW will need a 5th theme park.