The Spirited Back Nine ...

[GoofGoof]

Imo Disney really messed up by not consistently putting meaningful new additions in the parks for so long. AK got EE in 2006 and DHS got TSMM in 2008. Then nothing until NFL and now *almost* nothing until Avatar (yes I know Frozen is coming before Avatar, but that's not really a big addition. Especially capacity wise). Disney would've been much better off right now if they were building for all that time at the same rate Universal is now. You know what they say, hindsight is 20/20.

I think it's the cyclical nature of the business. You can't always be on full tilt growth mode. Despite what a lot of Uni fanboys think, their pace of growth isn't going to continue forever either. It's not sustainable. I remember the Eisner days in the late 80s through the 90s when they were building multiple resorts, whole new parks and significant expansions almost every year. It was a really fun time. Universal is going through a similar growth period now. We should all enjoy it and appreciate it now because it most likely won't last.

The combination of unstable macro economics and P&R focus on other parks like DCA and China definitely hurt WDW this past decade. Iger gets credit for investing $1B+ in DCA during a pretty harsh recession. It would have been nearly impossible to have simultaneously spent that at DCA and DHS with the economy tanking. DCA had a much clearer need and a more measurable ROI. TWDC now is in arguably the best financial shape it's ever been in. The studio business is doing great with smash hits like Frozen and anything Marvel makes plus the planned release of multiple Star Wars films. P&R will soon have a second park in China and 2 high functioning parks in CA. Really the only glaring need is WDW (plus Paris to an extent). Now is a great time to be investing in their future. It's looking like its WDW's time to get some love again. Love it or hate it FLE and Avatarland both had a healthy budget and now DHS is looking to be in line for a major overhaul. When the dust settles in 2020 or so they may have dropped over $2.5B on major projects at WDW this decade (not including Disney Springs or DVC resorts which pretty much pay for themselves).

If the expected growth occurs from all of these projects and we don't have any major economic problems it's conceivable that a 5th gate could come in the following decade since other than EPCOT each of the other 3 parks would have had a recent expansion. There is a lot of time between then and now and a lot could change so I wouldn't count it as a lock to happen.

 

[GoofGoof]

What if the building of "satellite" parks will continue worldwide, and that is the way of the Walt Disney Company to offload the "cargo" from WDW?
Its a win win for Walt Disney, as they do not have to operate the park fully and milk the parks by doing almost nothing.

The obvious choice for another international park would be somewhere in South America (probably Brazil). No clue if there is enough of a base of customers to keep it running. Disney has generally partnered with foreign governments and other corporations on international projects. I'm not sure how stable the political environment is in Brazil, but China had some risks and they went forward with a second park there.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

We need all of the above. We need to fill out animal kingdom and fill out the studios. We need to spread the crowd out from Magic Kingdom.

And then a fifth gate. One would hope that will be in the works after Shanghai gets built.

We also need high capacity monorails instead of artery clogging busses.

 

[PhotoDave219]

We also need high capacity monorails instead of artery clogging busses.

The system is way over capacity… The problem is that fewer people can fit on a train anymore because of the rise of these excessively large ECVs And strollers. I'm not really sure what else they can do.

 

[bhg469]

The system is way over capacity… The problem is that fewer people can fit on a train anymore because of the rise of these excessively large ECVs And strollers. I'm not really sure what else they can do.

Add more trains to the rails but busses are totally adequate. They just need to run more of those as well.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Add more trains to the rails but busses are totally adequate. They just need to run more of those as well.

My biggest problem with the buses are how slow they are and how unpredictable they are.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The system is way over capacity… The problem is that fewer people can fit on a train anymore because of the rise of these excessively large ECVs And strollers. I'm not really sure what else they can do.

It's mostly a matter of attendance.

Annual attendance at the Magic Kingdom throughout the decades:

• 1972: 10.7 million
• 1982: 12.6 million
• 1992: 11.5 million
• 2002: 14.0 million
• 2012: 17.5 million

Disney has reported record Magic Kingdom attendance in the two years since 2012.

The parks in general, and the Magic Kingdom in particular, simply were not designed to handle the current crowd levels.

 

[ford91exploder]

It's mostly a matter of attendance.

Annual attendance at the Magic Kingdom throughout the decades:

• 1972: 10.7 million
• 1982: 12.6 million
• 1992: 11.5 million
• 2002: 14.0 million
• 2012: 17.5 million

Disney has reported record Magic Kingdom attendance in the two years since 2012.

The parks in general, and the Magic Kingdom in particular, simply were not designed to handle the current crowd levels.

And yet with record attendance TDO cuts like the business is in a steep decline.

 

[ford91exploder]

I think it's the cyclical nature of the business. You can't always be on full tilt growth mode. Despite what a lot of Uni fanboys think, their pace of growth isn't going to continue forever either. It's not sustainable. I remember the Eisner days in the late 80s through the 90s when they were building multiple resorts, whole new parks and significant expansions almost every year. It was a really fun time. Universal is going through a similar growth period now. We should all enjoy it and appreciate it now because it most likely won't last.

The combination of unstable macro economics and P&R focus on other parks like DCA and China definitely hurt WDW this past decade. Iger gets credit for investing $1B+ in DCA during a pretty harsh recession. It would have been nearly impossible to have simultaneously spent that at DCA and DHS with the economy tanking. DCA had a much clearer need and a more measurable ROI. TWDC now is in arguably the best financial shape it's ever been in. The studio business is doing great with smash hits like Frozen and anything Marvel makes plus the planned release of multiple Star Wars films. P&R will soon have a second park in China and 2 high functioning parks in CA. Really the only glaring need is WDW (plus Paris to an extent). Now is a great time to be investing in their future. It's looking like its WDW's time to get some love again. Love it or hate it FLE and Avatarland both had a healthy budget and now DHS is looking to be in line for a major overhaul. When the dust settles in 2020 or so they may have dropped over $2.5B on major projects at WDW this decade (not including Disney Springs or DVC resorts which pretty much pay for themselves).

If the expected growth occurs from all of these projects and we don't have any major economic problems it's conceivable that a 5th gate could come in the following decade since other than EPCOT each of the other 3 parks would have had a recent expansion. There is a lot of time between then and now and a lot could change so I wouldn't count it as a lock to happen.

2.5 Thousand Million Sounds like a lot but right now reinvestment is about 9.6% that barely covers maintenance, Under Eisner it was on the order of 19-24%

 

[Goofyernmost]

Imo Disney really messed up by not consistently putting meaningful new additions in the parks for so long. AK got EE in 2006 and DHS got TSMM in 2008. Then nothing until NFL and now *almost* nothing until Avatar (yes I know Frozen is coming before Avatar, but that's not really a big addition. Especially capacity wise). Disney would've been much better off right now if they were building for all that time at the same rate Universal is now. You know what they say, hindsight is 20/20.

Sounds good on paper, but, no company can grow at that pace and still remain viable over a long period of time. Every investment needs time to recoup expenditures and take a breath. That will happen to Universal in the very near future, if it hasn't happened already. I seem to always be reminding people that what Universal is doing is still catching up to what Disney already had. They are doing a good job on what they are building, but, it still pales in comparison to what WDW already is. A theme park is more then one or two attractions, no matter how popular those might be.

In that same line, however, the reason hindsight is so good and also necessary is because they are not looking ahead in recent years. It's the attitude that is generated from Wall Street that is tantamount to "what have you done for me lately". They are not in the least interested in the long term, it is now, now, now! Not a very good way to be, in my opinion, but, it is what it currently is.

Does make me wonder though if all the stock buyback, that is so hated, eventually strengthens Disney to do what the want since they will eventually own the majority of the stock and not be as beholding to Wall Street as it is now.

 

[GoofGoof]

2.5 Thousand Million Sounds like a lot but right now reinvestment is about 9.6% that barely covers maintenance, Under Eisner it was on the order of 19-24%

The $2.5B is for special projects over and above maintenance capex. Rounded estimates: FLE $500M, Avatar plus night AK stuff $800M and at least $1.2B for DHS. Assuming the DHS things happen, the decade between 2011 and 2020 will have a heck of a lot more investment at WDW then the previous decade 2001 to 2010.

 

[PhotoDave219]

100% agreed. And they're paying for it now. Literally LOL. I'm sure someone somewhere in that company knows the mistake they made ignoring the parks for so long.

I know Epcot really isn't a priority but it needs small help too. They can expand as well but they don't.

Ix-nay on the Pcot-E.

 

[Mike S]

Sounds good on paper, but, no company can grow at that pace and still remain viable over a long period of time. Every investment needs time to recoup expenditures and take a breath. That will happen to Universal in the very near future, if it hasn't happened already. I seem to always be reminding people that what Universal is doing is still catching up to what Disney already had. They are doing a good job on what they are building, but, it still pales in comparison to what WDW already is. A theme park is more then one or two attractions, no matter how popular those might be.

In that same line, however, the reason hindsight is so good and also necessary is because they are not looking ahead in recent years. It's the attitude that is generated from Wall Street that is tantamount to "what have you done for me lately". They are not in the least interested in the long term, it is now, now, now! Not a very good way to be, in my opinion, but, it is what it currently is.

Does make me wonder though if all the stock buyback, that is so hated, eventually strengthens Disney to do what the want since they will eventually own the majority of the stock and not be as beholding to Wall Street as it is now.

I agree that Universal technically is playing catch up right now. They probably won't ever reach the popularity of Disney and definitely not the size but what they are doing is making a great name for themselves basically sending out the statement that Disney isn't the only game in town anymore and people have been responding very positively to that. To the part I bolded, that's exactly why Disney shouldn't have waited 11 years before making another substantial addition to Animal Kingdom. It and DHS are the parks in the most need of help right now exactly because Disney rested for all those years. Those two parks should have had more than just one major addition each in that timeframe. If those parks had more done to them over those years maybe, just maybe, they would've shed the "half-day park" stigma they still carry to this day years ago and they would've been holding people longer instead of them just skipping over to Magic Kingdom after a few hours. It's great that major projects like Avatar and the DHS redo are happening now, but honestly, they were needed years ago.

 

[TalkingHead]

I agree that Universal technically is playing catch up right now. They probably won't ever reach the popularity of Disney and definitely not the size but what they are doing is making a great name for themselves basically sending out the statement that Disney isn't the only game in town anymore and people have been responding very positively to that. To the part I bolded, that's exactly why Disney shouldn't have waited 11 years before making another substantial addition to Animal Kingdom. It and DHS are the parks in the most need of help right now exactly because Disney rested for all those years. Those two parks should have had more than just one major addition each in that timeframe. If those parks had more done to them over those years maybe, just maybe, they would've shed the "half-day park" stigma they still carry to this day years ago and they would've been holding people longer instead of them just skipping over to Magic Kingdom after a few hours. It's great that major projects like Avatar and the DHS redo are happening now, but honestly, they were needed years ago.

Bottom line: Universal has done more over the past five years to keep their two parks fresh than WDW has done over the last ten years to keep their four parks fresh.

 

[PhotoDave219]

All I know is there's a good 75,000 people magic and him today. The monorail is a crap fest today. The system is overloaded. People are paying premium dollar to stay on the monorail resort and I'm getting frustrated as hell by the service.

That's why I am a giant fan of the contemporary. Walking distance to mk. When I leave Florida? And I come back to visit? I will take the basic garden wing room at the contemporary just so I don't have to deal with all this other crap.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The $2.5B is for special projects over and above maintenance capex. Rounded estimates: FLE $500M, Avatar plus night AK stuff $800M and at least $1.2B for DHS. Assuming the DHS things happen, the decade between 2011 and 2020 will have a heck of a lot more investment at WDW then the previous decade 2001 to 2010.

Better than horrible is not good.

Yes, the 2000s were a horrendous decade for WDW investment, by far the worst ever.

However ...

$2.5B might sound like a lot but, for perspective, that represents about 1.5% of Parks & Resorts projected revenue for the decade.

Even the upcoming DAK/DHS additions will represent less than 2% of Parks & Resorts projected revenue from 2015 to 2020.

No one should leave with the impression that the upcoming expenditures represent anything more than the bare minimum of what WDW needs right now.

Right now, DAK is a disappoint while DHS is simply a mess.

 

[Nemo14]

All I know is there's a good 75,000 people magic and him today. The monorail is a **** fest today. The system is overloaded. People are paying premium dollar to stay on the monorail resort and I'm getting frustrated as hell by the service.

That's why I am a giant fan of the contemporary. Walking distance to mk. When I leave Florida? And I come back to visit? I will take the basic garden wing room at the contemporary just so I don't have to deal with all this other ****.

I love your phone...

 

[Cesar R M]

The system is way over capacity… The problem is that fewer people can fit on a train anymore because of the rise of these excessively large ECVs And strollers. I'm not really sure what else they can do.

Maybe transform at least 2 of the 4 monorail trains as NO ECVS or STROLLERS?

 

[Cesar R M]

2.5 Thousand Million Sounds like a lot but right now reinvestment is about 9.6% that barely covers maintenance, Under Eisner it was on the order of 19-24%

I still laugh when people say and eat the lie of "lol, the orlando parks are mature and will not grow".
its BS... the parks are clearly growing in attendance.. Uni as well!

People just got smarter and sick of paying overexpensive hotels with no enough value and finding new venues (like renting DVC or staying in nearby hotels not of the disney brand.
hence why the parks are packed but their hotels are lowering in attendance)

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

I love your phone...

The guy who owns it is kinda cool too.