The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[Funmeister]

Someone on this forum tries this every year and it always fails.

Who? What was it? A blog? Website? Just curious...not doubting you just intersted to know why those efforts failed.

 

[PhotoDave219]

You're kidding, right? That's just........... I really have no words for this. How could they be so clueless..........?

No.

He's not kidding.

TWDC wants to spend as little money as humanly possible while receiving the largest amount of revenue.

That keeps the stock price up. When the stock price stays up, Iger's options that he receives as compensation are worth more. (I am not sure if he receives additional bonuses for hitting stock price targets). So it's in his personal financial interest to keep this going.

 

[WDW1974]

I placed this news about Wilderness DVC on my Facebook, where quite a few DVC members, and more than a few friends that work in Burbank, and Glendale will read it. I'd love to be a fly on the wall, in those offices when they open in the morning.

I hope they enjoy it. I have a few accounts where I typically get Disney-related email/notes and I have purposely decided to wait until Sunday night before looking at them. ... I don't want anything I read to change what I am posting here.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Although I participate regularly on the DISboards, tonight is my first WDWMagic post. I have been following this thread all day and cannot tell you how many times I have checked back for additional responses.

As a DVC member, I will find it truly devastating if GF rooms are converted to villas. We paid a premium for access to a limited number of GF villas. If the inventory magically doubles or triples, then the booking advantage may be lost.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Who? What was it? A blog? Website? Just curious...not doubting you just intersted to know why those efforts failed.

Because TWDC is the largest media company in the world and just doesn't care what anyone else thinks.

They are the true 800 pound gorilla that does as they please.

 

[Quinnmac000]

You're kidding, right? That's just........... I really have no words for this. How could they be so clueless..........?

Disney's response to you:

 

[stlphil]

Very true. I don't know what these execs refuse to acknowledge is a faulty model. From 1990-2000, I probably spent the equivalent of 4-5 weeks a year at WDW resorts. In 2014? Not a single night. In 2013, 12 nights all on DVC points that I didn't pay for.

I'm a Faux Top One Percenter and they've priced me right out of the market except for 50-60% cast discounts and I've frankly found I'd rather stay at UNI resorts on TM rates or just Priceline a 4-star hotel. It's so nice to not check out and see a multi-thousand dollar balance (or at least over $1,000) headed to my AmEx card.

But had Disney not gotten insane with pricing, they'd likely still have had me. They lost me and I don't see them ever getting me back, at least not close to what I once was for them (a whale).

Right, they had to lose you so that they could charge $150+ per point for villas at GF.

 

[Tigger1988]

Who? What was it? A blog? Website? Just curious...not doubting you just intersted to know why those efforts failed.

Several members, I'm sure someone can identify them. The most recent effort was called " Fix the Magic" or something. Don't think it ever got past the "what should the logo look like??" stage. It never works.

D-Troops was the only site that ever served this purpose and it's long gone.

 

[WDW1974]

Just wanted to reenforce that DVC at Caribbean Beach Resort's Trinidad South is definitely being considered. Union negotiations are occurring right now and the one that represents the housekeepers has Trinidad South on their agenda. If CBR goes forward with conversions, I'd expect Port Orleans would be the next choice.

Yep. ... I have heard that much like the Contemporary (and likely the YC too) on the deluxe end, the only moderate that DVC has been told won't be touched is Coronado.

Disney isn't going to do anything to harm its huge convention business.

I really see DVC headed to CBR before they ever attempt the much, much costlier resorts on the RC site and the EPCOT entrance/parking lot. It's all about the money ...

And the mandate as I was told is they feel that the 'perfect number' of deluxe rooms at any resort is 'no more than 300-400' ... so you all can do the math.

 

[Funmeister]

Because TWDC is the largest media company in the world and just doesn't care what anyone else thinks.

They are the true 800 pound gorilla that does as they please.

But wasn't AL (MiceAge) successful in holding Disneyland accountable? (to a point?)

 

[WDW1974]

So lets say it hits 2042 ( so I was a little out by three years) and Disney refuses to renew any contract that expires that year. Can they not legally? Or is it more theorised as "well we can still sell it and collect the maintenance so it doesn't cost us a thing"?

When the contracts are up, assuming there is still life on the planet and that Florida isn't under water and that WDW still exists, those points revert back to Disney and they can do whatever they want. They can resell or demolish the resorts or make them into hotels (complete with docking pads for those hoverchairs that the average 700-pound WDW visitor will be using) or whatever. Considering what my age will be then, if I am lucky and still kicking, I doubt I'll be thinking about DVC!

 

[mgpan]

When the contracts are up, assuming there is still life on the planet and that Florida isn't under water and that WDW still exists, those points revert back to Disney and they can do whatever they want. They can resell or demolish the resorts or make them into hotels (complete with docking pads for those hoverchairs that the average 700-pound WDW visitor will be using) or whatever. Considering what my age will be then, if I am lucky and still kicking, I doubt I'll be thinking about DVC!

Or, convert them to Golden Oak Springs: DVC's the Retirement Village at Saratoga Springs?

 

[WDW1974]

Major corporations used to be run on full, down to the finest minitua with 10 year business plans. @WDW1974, would it be safe to say at this point that the company is like most major corporations in this country that there just isn't such a thing, or that they aren't developed in the way that they were historically? And if there is, what do these geniuses envision a decade from now? I'm assuming it's a timeshare property that just happens to contain theme parks that they are obligated to at least operate at a minimum standard.

Disney absolutely has forward-thinking plans in every business unit. P&R as a whole and WDW Co. as a resort have them. ... But you're right that they aren't what they once were. They more a 'wish list' of things. Some at WDW could be (I am largely making these up here so don't take them literally) anything from building another water park to replacing all the trash cans at the All Stars with more environmentally sound models ... everything from adding Star Wars properties to the Studios to rerouting canals and adding drainage ditches (remind me one day to talk about why flooding at WDW happens now when it never did for the resort's first quarter century: here's a hint, it's because they built the town of Celebration!)

But they absolutely have plans and they do cover some tiny mundane things to major development things. And most of both will never happen!

Personally, it's all sad. Disney is a reflection of what has gone so wrong with corporate America and they offered what so, so few ever do: A deep and personal connection that brings virtually irrational loyalty. They're losing that loyalty like lemmings falling off a cliff. Is there a road back? Most likely not unless there is some giant epiphany in how corporations operate and that's all a huge disappointment. Growth and attractions changing are one thing, but going from a golden brand to a junk seller is another. Spirit, one other thing: I remember a whole team was based out of Orlando (if I believe correctly), who's job was akin to the Disney Institute, as they'd go to other major corporations and teach them the Disney way. Do they still do this? I assume that they do and that's even more laughable.

As far as I know, not only does that part of the Disney Institute remain, it is still highly valued (because people wrongly think that Disney is a great company to work for and one that has all its blank together!)

 

[SpaceMountain77]

And the mandate as I was told is they feel that the 'perfect number' of deluxe rooms at any resort is 'no more than 300-400' ... so you all can do the math.

Essentially, all of the deluxe resorts would mainly become DVC controlled resorts as villa inventory would exceed traditional room inventory?

 

[WDW1974]

@WDW1974 So the those beautiful plans for the WL/RC DVC that leaked out a few months ago... the ones that almost made me think the WDC, in 2014, could still do "wow me" architecture... Those are dead?

Sigh. This is the worst kind of abusive relationship.

No, not dead at all.

Just in stasis ... they want to build where its cheaper and solve their continuing occupancy issues at the deluxe resorts. Building at RC doesn't help at all.

 

[Mike S]

No.

He's not kidding.

TWDC wants to spend as little money as humanly possible while receiving the largest amount of revenue.

That keeps the stock price up. When the stock price stays up, Iger's options that he receives as compensation are worth more. (I am not sure if he receives additional bonuses for hitting stock price targets). So it's in his personal financial interest to keep this going.

Funny how they want to spend as little as possible then dump billions into MM+ thinking it would somehow MAGICally make guests spend more money rather than going with the age old way of building something that gets people excited and want to come and spend money. But I guess that little mine ride is enough, right? Why should they do more?

 

[WDW1974]

To a family like us, this is good news. We are DVC and to us, the parks represent just a portion of our vacation time at WDW. The resorts and the amenities are just as big a part of our vacation as the parks themselves. We however have no interest in staying in a hotel room while on vacation. We want a washer/dryer. We want a whirlpool tub, we want multiple rooms so if one spouse sleeps in, the other may enjoy the living room and read, watch TV, etc. We don't want to be all crammed and on the run all the time, we want to relax and have space.

We have always wanted to stay at the Yacht Club or the main buildings at the WL or BC. Or even say the 3rd floor in the Jambo house. But we won't unless they offer at least 1 Bedroom accomodations. So expanding DVC to all the main Deluxe buildings is a win for us. It is like having another 5+ resorts/experiences to now try out in the future.

Like I said, I'm torn because I am in a relationship with someone very special, someone who bought into DVC before we ever met (and did so under smarter conditions and more unique ones than most buyers) ... but the thought of all these beautiful deluxe resorts becoming timeshare also leaves a very sick taste in my mouth.

When is enough enough? Every deluxe resort has been bastardized by adding DVC, which has lowered standards of the resorts as soon as the timeshare units open. True deluxe resorts don't have folks arriving with bags of crap they picked up at the Walmart. They just don't. You never saw that at WL or BC or Contemporary in the 80s or 90s. It's standard everyday now.

DVCers have endless choices at WDW. Folks who want a true deluxe resort sans timeshare barely have any choice at all.

 

[stlphil]

Ok, let's assume that the ruse behind MM+ is a means of keeping guests on property. Comparatively, since the Next Gen project began, Universal has spent their money refreshing their parks with new marquee attractions and upgrades. This brings me to my upcoming trip where I am staying offsite, except for two days at Lowe's Royal Pacific. I let my $950+ Premier Annual pass expire in January and I'm looking at a length of stay park hopper for September because we don't know that we'll be returning to Florida within a year. Between the hotel and park tickets, it's conceivable that Universal will be getting anywhere between 40-60% of the money we spend at theme parks on our upcoming trip. This is while we will likely be spending 7 days at Disney and 2 days at Universal. Simply put, the perks of staying on site at Universal, as well as the relative cost are more favorable.

This goes into what it would take for Disney to get more people to stay on site. Beyond the simple answer of reducing the price, they need to offer more. Increasing Extra Magic Hours would help. Improving attraction access in the form of additional Fastpass+ reservations would also help, however the number of attractions vs. existing hotel rooms doesn't make this as feasible without significantly hurting the value for non-resort guests.

According to TouringPlans.com there are 30,405 hotel rooms at Disney World.
I come up with 4200 hotel rooms at Universal (Portifino-750, Royal Pacific-1000, Hard Rock-650, Cabana Bay-1800).

Currently there are 64 Fastpass+ attractions at Disney World. Prior to the Fantasyland expansion there were 23 Fastpass attractions in Disney World. Currently, Universal has 32 attractions with Express Pass.
I would argue that Universal's employment of Express pass is as liberal as Fastpass+ (meaning they put it where it doesn't belong).

It's not an exact science, but in order for Disney to give resort guests the same "Unlimited access" perk given to Universal guests, they would have to add 168 more Fastpass+ attractions to Walt Disney World. We know full well that's not going to happen. However, in order to fully take advantage of Fastpass+, the attraction lineup still needs to increase quickly. Even with an increased roster of attractions, the issue of education still remains with Fastpass+. Express Pass is access that doesn't require a reservation. You show up, you get in a shorter line. Variants of Fastpass+ could include the following:

• Elimination or addition of tiers of attractions
• Increased Fastpass+ access based on hotel price point
• Increased lead time for when Fastpass+ reservations can be made

All of those further complicate the benefit. Here's a much simpler solution that will require building additional attractions, but eliminate the confusion of the ever evolving system.

• Return to previous Fastpass rules and distribution. Same day only for all guests. 40-120 minutes between when a guest can acquire an additional Fastpass depending on popularity. Utilize the new infrastructure and it's an advantage over the previous system.
• Give DVC and deluxe guests 2 any time/any attraction access FP per day
• Give moderate resort guests 1 any time/any attraction access FP per day
• All resort guests get access to morning or evening extra magic hours. EMH increased to at least 1 morning or 1 evening per day.

Interesting suggestions. But here is an idea for an on-site perk I haven't seen anyone suggest before- widen the FP+ return window. I realize that there may be operations issues with this, but this is something I would personally find very compelling, because what I dislike the most about FP now is the touring regimentation required by enforcing the end of the return window.

 

[WDW1974]

So, I have 2 questions that have been coming to mind based on some of the info that has been dropped here by @WDW1974 that maybe some of you fine folks, and perhaps 74 himself, could offer some insight into.

Edit: I think I'll break this up into 2 posts for ease of response

1) Regarding the DVC conversion.
So, in assuming that they have decided to take a percent of an existing deluxe resort and convert this to DVC, that means somewhere, some analytic minded person has had to have crunched some numbers to present to business. If the going assumption was that hotel occupancy is dropping, but the demand for DVC is high enough that it remains a more profitable alternative, then someone had to do the following math comparison.
Option 1: Compute the cost of the conversion, taking into account the potential loss of income of the regular hotel space (given existing occupancy rates and average room rates), the reduce in Mousekeeping wages (since DVC doesn't have daily service), the cost of the actual construction itself, any new staff that will be needed to service DVC members specific (likely a very small number), and any other costs associated with the maintenance and upkeep of DVC rooms as they compare to hotel rooms (is it more, or less?).
Option 2: Given the current occupancy rate compared against competition in the area, model different pricing scenarios. If we reduced the price of our deluxe resorts by 5%, we could realistically expect to pull in X number of new guests, which would calculate out to $Y per year in added revenue. Now run it for 6%, 10%, etc.

So, taking both option 1 and 2 into account, somehow the cost of gut-rehabbing the resorts to switch to a more DVC centric business model made more financial sense.
My questions then: Does this mean that they have little to no confidence in their ability to draw new/more business over an extended period of time by reducing the rates, so much so that they'll swallow a much larger upfront cost of conversion? Has the market already shifted past a point in WDW where they expect that drawing more people to stay at their hotels is now too difficult that the much simpler route of adjusting the pricing model is the less appealing option? Has the competition (both Uni as well as other 3rd party resorts) just outside the gates put too many well-appointed options in the vicinity that they've lost the competitive edge to the point of waving the white flag on it?

Getting tired and want to run off for some other fun pursuits (not that this can't be fun but ...) ... I can't answer your question as to what Disney is thinking largely. I could say what a few people who work for them think, but that wouldn't help much.

I think the issue is very simple: Disney has reached the end of the line with ever increasing prices and doesn't wish to shift their pricing model. This solves their problems in the short term ... buys them another 5-10 years if a new management team doesn't come in and change things. But I need to run ...

 

[harveyt0206]

Spirit, I don't typically speak up much in your threads, but I always read them so that I can "try" and understand what is going on at my once beloved WDW. When I read your initial posts last night, I had to step away to really give some thought as to why this DVC information was so upsetting to me. I mean, it's not like Disney hasn't done other things that upset me (making Fastpass ressies two months before I arrive, I am looking at you). But something about this just hit me right in the heart. Wilderness Lodge is our favorite resort. Ultimately, it isn't the DVC aspect that hurts here, it's the fact that because "regular" room inventory will now decrease, Disney will increase their already ridiculous rack room rates. Rates that I can't even consider without a discount, and even then, if I am being honest, it's way more than I should be spending. But I have always rationalized that the joy of going to Disney trumped the negatives. I have stayed at almost every resort on property except the Floridian and Yacht Club. Deluxe, moderate, value...there is something that I love about all of them. But with the implementation of the magic bands, the annual increase in ticket prices....blah, blah, blah...all the things that are discussed constantly, I am slowly seeing what you have been preaching. And in the "Spirit" of being honest, I haven't always bought in to what you were saying. But you finally got me with this thread. Which now means I have to seriously analyze how to spend my vacation dollars. Something I've never really worried about because WDW was always my pick.

Thank you for sharing your info and for giving us insight into some of the Corporate inner workings.