The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[FT_Roy]

6,000-8,000 is for 3-4 people, abt $2,000 each...we might end up with 6 going...!!
Check out the Disney Your Way Vacation Packages....@ disneyworld.disney.go.com
You can figure it all out there...and then hope to get a special discount come along & they will just adjust your package...
This is to have the vacation of a lifetime & splurge on things that really matter, the experience, not for a fancy room...but with all the extra benefits that are included with staying on-site..
We do not want to go totally cheap....
This includes round-trip airfare, all transportation for the duration of our trip, Our Resort for 6 Nights, ALL our food for 7 days on the Disney Deluxe dining Plan (DDDP), including the refillable mugs, Park Tickets for 5 days & the benefits of the extra magic hours in the parks & it also includes very affordable vacation insurance.

It's the Deluxe Dining Plan that's killing you. If you downgrade to even just the standard Dining Plan, you'd knock nearly a grand off your vacation right there. Even assuming you spent $30 per meal per person on the one meal you didn't get on the plan, you'd still save around $400 on the package (and of course, that assumes you not only eat three meals a day, but also that you're eating dinner off-plan - if you do something like breakfast or lunch off-plan, the numbers look even better).

Put another way... with the Deluxe Dining Plan you're effectively pre-paying for a food budget of $110 per person and per day for the trip. That may be cost-effective if you plan on eating all of your meals at table-service locations at WDW (one of the TIW number-crunchers would have to help me out here, I'm a DLR visitor), but add a quick-service in at all and the pricing's already swung in Disney's favor. Eat quick-service for lunch everyday? Now you're just giving them money. To do a comparison to off-site restaurants, let's assume the (grossly over-estimated) figure of $30 per person per meal. Even at that level, that's still $20 left over, which even at Disney prices is a bit much for a couple of churros.

It sounds like you're going to be a first-time visitor, which is awesome. But please, do yourself a favor and don't overpay for the "deal" that is the Deluxe Dining Plan, at the very least. I can't tell you how to value EMH or resort transportation, but I can tell you that, at minimum, you're valuing it at about $70/night over the cost of staying at, say, the Doubletree Suites at Downtown Disney (comparing All-Star Music Family Suites to a 2 Queen w/Sofabed Suite there... and yes that's the best case comparison, I promise you). That's enough money to rent a solid fullsize car for the duration of your stay, with about $40 of wiggle room in there for gas and tolls. It's possible to have the vacation of a lifetime without breaking the bank, this I promise you... but as @ParentsOf4 has adeptly explained many times in many threads, TDO's financial strategy is to get you to do exactly that, and all on Disney property.

 

[TeriofTerror]

So, I've been giving some thought to the whole "DVC coming to the Moderates" idea. I still don't like it because I can't imagine spending DVC points to stay at a Moderate. However, I may be willing to consider it if -- and only if -- two key steps were taken:
1. Those had best be some low point options. I mean lower-than-Old-Key-West low. There's no conceivable way I'd stay at CBR if the same number of points got me into BLT, the Poly, or the Villas at GFR. Or even value at AKL.
2. Disney would need to build a walkway to Epcot. Theme park-adjacency is a pretty big deal to most DVC members. I think it's completely doable:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rr5p7zqghyn1jzu/Screenshot 2014-08-19 09.31.55.png
(Hopefully that link works)
Aruba and Barbados are right behind World Showcase, and I don't see why a walkway should be all that difficult.

If Disney made sure these two elements are factored in, I'd consider using DVC points there. Otherwise, I don't care if they turned Shutters into V&A, made each building a separate DVC unit, and provided me a pool with a pool boy to bring me drinks, I'm not spending my DVC points there.

 

[Nubs70]

At the bubble right now watching the DVC infomercial.

Waiting for Jiminey Cricket voice over to say one of three things:

1. Remember kids, if your parents are not DVC owners, they do not love you.
2. If you just had a child you need DVC to be a quality family.
3. If you are grandparents, you need DVC if you want to see your grand children.

 

[GoofGoof]

So, I've been giving some thought to the whole "DVC coming to the Moderates" idea. I still don't like it because I can't imagine spending DVC points to stay at a Moderate. However, I may be willing to consider it if -- and only if -- two key steps were taken:
1. Those had best be some low point options. I mean lower-than-Old-Key-West low. There's no conceivable way I'd stay at CBR if the same number of points got me into BLT, the Poly, or the Villas at GFR. Or even value at AKL.
2. Disney would need to build a walkway to Epcot. Theme park-adjacency is a pretty big deal to most DVC members. I think it's completely doable:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rr5p7zqghyn1jzu/Screenshot 2014-08-19 09.31.55.png
(Hopefully that link works)
Aruba and Barbados are right behind World Showcase, and I don't see why a walkway should be all that difficult.

If Disney made sure these two elements are factored in, I'd consider using DVC points there. Otherwise, I don't care if they turned Shutters into V&A, made each building a separate DVC unit, and provided me a pool with a pool boy to bring me drinks, I'm not spending my DVC points there.

This would go a long way towards making it possible.

What they probably could also use is a major new pool feature at the resort too. If they build a pool area with multiple slides and a lazy river it could go a long way towards making a moderate more appealing to DVC owners. The Beach Club DVC is one of the more popular and aside from the pool and walkway to EPCOT it doesn't offer much.

I don't know how they would deal with the small room size when trying to convert these rooms. They may need to either knock down units and start over (like BLT over CR garden wing) or potentially make a new version of DVC rooms similar to the family suites at the values which is really just 2 rooms together. If they knocked down a few wings of of the current hotel they could build a mid-rise tower (maybe 5 to 7 floors) or even go high rise (10+ floors) and try to incorporate views of Illuminations in a rooftop lounge. The mid-rise would probably be cheaper and easier to fit into the Caribbean theme.

I agree that lower point totals would be needed to make it appealing, but I think it would be hard to make the economics work for Disney if the point totals were too low. If they had a walkway or boat ride to EPCOT plus an upgraded pool area I think they could make the point totals around OKW levels even with smaller rooms.

 

[GrammieBee]

it's hard to afford a WDW vacation if you don't have debts, except a mortgage & earn about $30,000 a year...

Total agreement. I was taking issue with the idea that you needed $100,000. a year before you could afford a Disney vacation. At $30,000 a year, sad to say, it is probably not possibe. There are just too many other necessary expenses that get in the way. Have been in that boat.

The other issue was with someone making, say, $80,000. a year and complaining they couldn't afford to go.

 

[GoofGoof]

Total agreement. I was taking issue with the idea that you needed $100,000. a year before you could afford a Disney vacation. At $30,000 a year, sad to say, it is probably not possibe. There are just too many other necessary expenses that get in the way. Have been in that boat.

The other issue was with someone making, say, $80,000. a year and complaining they couldn't afford to go.

It depends on where you live. If you have a family income of $80,000 and live in a high cost area (NYC, DC, SF) you probably would have a hard time affording WDW without going into debt.

 

[GrammieBee]

It depends on where you live. If you have a family income of $80,000 and live in a high cost area (NYC, DC, SF) you probably would have a hard time affording WDW without going into debt.

The property taxes around DC are killers. Hard time, yes. Impossible, no.

 

[GrammieBee]

This would go a long way towards making it possible.

What they probably could also use is a major new pool feature at the resort too. If they build a pool area with multiple slides and a lazy river it could go a long way towards making a moderate more appealing to DVC owners. The Beach Club DVC is one of the more popular and aside from the pool and walkway to EPCOT it doesn't offer much.

I don't know how they would deal with the small room size when trying to convert these rooms. They may need to either knock down units and start over (like BLT over CR garden wing) or potentially make a new version of DVC rooms similar to the family suites at the values which is really just 2 rooms together. If they knocked down a few wings of of the current hotel they could build a mid-rise tower (maybe 5 to 7 floors) or even go high rise (10+ floors) and try to incorporate views of Illuminations in a rooftop lounge. The mid-rise would probably be cheaper and easier to fit into the Caribbean theme.

I agree that lower point totals would be needed to make it appealing, but I think it would be hard to make the economics work for Disney if the point totals were too low. If they had a walkway or boat ride to EPCOT plus an upgraded pool area I think they could make the point totals around OKW levels even with smaller rooms.

Questions. If they made all these changes and upgrades to all or parts of the CBR, would it still be a moderate resort with corresponding point levels? Or would it now be sort of a deluxe or semi-deluxe resort?

 

[cw1982]

The property taxes around DC are killers. Hard time, yes. Impossible, no.

But there are still other factors besides income and where one lives. Family size, for example, can make a big difference. If someone in the household has large medical expenses, those can also take a huge chunk out of a family's income. It's just not always so simple.

 

[disneydudette]

1. Those had best be some low point options. I mean lower-than-Old-Key-West low...

2. Disney would need to build a walkway to Epcot. Theme park-adjacency is a pretty big deal to most DVC members...

Absolutely agree with 'low point' options. For a week in Sept... studio points currently range from 69 to 148.

I'm more curious about how you would 'buy in' at the moderate level. Current new-buyers have point options ranging from $115/pt at HH and VB to $165/pt for GFV and BLT (minimum of 100 points)

Let's say they price CBR at $100/pt with a minimum of 75pts. That's certainly a more affordable approach to DVC. Especially if buyers are given the option to use their points elsewhere, and purchase contract add-ons.

Given a smaller 'point per night' resort... I don't think transportation will play a huge factor. Currently AKV, SSR, and OKW have no direct park access... though of course they tend to have the most availability with lack of 'park access' as a big deciding factor.

What they probably could also use is a major new pool feature at the resort too...

I don't know how they would deal with the small room size when trying to convert these rooms....

or potentially make a new version of DVC rooms similar to the family suites at the values which is really just 2 rooms together..

If the 'rumors' are true and we could see a complete rebuild of Trinidad South, they could easily upgrade that village pool to feature a pool slide and snack bar... Similar to what they did with the Paddocks pool at SSR.

I really enjoy the current main pool at CBR: zero entry, well themed, 2 slides, and seperate childrens splash zone area. I see no reason why a change would be needed... CBR is still a moderate resort... and this is 'simply' a DVC Wing addition.

Keeping in mind this a 'moderate' level DVC... there would have to be, in my opinion, a somewhat obvious difference between categories.

I'm not sure where they'll cut corners most... resort amenities? Room quality? Both? It will be curious to see how the Poly Long houses look after being converted... seems like it's something they could easily replicate at CBR.

I certainly don't think this is "for" current owners... though some may appreciate wider resort offerings and smaller points chart. Instead, I believe this is an attempt to attract customers to DVC with a smaller points/price buy-in amount.

Perhaps this is Disney's 'answer' to the DVC resale market.

 

[GoofGoof]

But there are still other factors besides income and where one lives. Family size, for example, can make a big difference. If someone in the household has large medical expenses, those can also take a huge chunk out of a family's income. It's just not always so simple.

This is true. A family with 2 parents and 3 kids where only 1 parent works and makes $80,000 is a lot better off than a family where each parent makes $40,000 and both have to work to get to $80,000 total. Day care for 3 kids is a huge expense. A married couple with no kids making combined $80,000 is in even better shape financially. The family income alone is not enough to tell the whole story.

The property taxes around DC are killers. Hard time, yes. Impossible, no.

Len Testa's analysis uses demographic information from the government based on income level and amount of money spent annually on vacations. The cost of a WDW vacation exceeds the average annual money spent on vacations for families earning less than $100K. It's based on averages. It's not saying nobody with a family income under $100K can go to WDW. Some families may allocate more or less money to vacations. Maybe some families spend less on child care or rent/mortgage or meals out or buying electronics and household items and spend more on vacations.

For a lot of families in this demographic an annual WDW vacation is not affordable. They can still swing a one time trip by saving money or even going a little into debt.

 

[GoofGoof]

Absolutely agree with 'low point' options. For a week in Sept... studio points currently range from 69 to 148.

I'm more curious about how you would 'buy in' at the moderate level. Current new-buyers have point options ranging from $115/pt at HH and VB to $165/pt for GFV and BLT (minimum of 100 points)

Let's say they price CBR at $100/pt with a minimum of 75pts. That's certainly a more affordable approach to DVC. Especially if buyers are given the option to use their points elsewhere, and purchase contract add-ons.

Given a smaller 'point per night' resort... I don't think transportation will play a huge factor. Currently AKV, SSR, and OKW have no direct park access... though of course they tend to have the most availability with lack of 'park access' as a big deciding factor.



If the 'rumors' are true and we could see a complete rebuild of Trinidad South, they could easily upgrade that village pool to feature a pool slide and snack bar... Similar to what they did with the Paddocks pool at SSR.

I really enjoy the current main pool at CBR: zero entry, well themed, 2 slides, and seperate childrens splash zone area. I see no reason why a change would be needed... CBR is still a moderate resort... and this is 'simply' a DVC Wing addition.

Keeping in mind this a 'moderate' level DVC... there would have to be, in my opinion, a somewhat obvious difference between categories.

I'm not sure where they'll cut corners most... resort amenities? Room quality? Both? It will be curious to see how the Poly Long houses look after being converted... seems like it's something they could easily replicate at CBR.

I certainly don't think this is "for" current owners... though some may appreciate wider resort offerings and smaller points chart. Instead, I believe this is an attempt to attract customers to DVC with a smaller points/price buy-in amount.

Perhaps this is Disney's 'answer' to the DVC resale market.

I don't think the moderate DVC concept works. If they add DVC to a moderate resort I don't think it will be marketed as a moderate DVC. They can't sell the points for significantly less than current DVC but make them interchangeable with the current resorts. Why pay $165 for the new VWL points when I can pay $100 per point for a CBR moderate and trade in to get VWL anyway. They could create a new "class" of DVC points that is not eligible for trade to deluxe DVC or maybe trades at 2:1 or 3:2. The other problem with this is Disney makes way less per point and the economics don't work for them. It's more profitable to just keep adding on at Deluxe resorts.

The upgraded pool area and most other amenities (possibly a DVC lounge) would likely be DVC only. Similar to how BLT has it's own pool that isn't open to guests at CR. The transportation would be open to all. This keeps CBR as a moderate but allows Disney to sell the DVC units around the same price as the deluxe resorts.

I don't think Disney is interested in allowing a moderate buy in level for DVC. They want guests who normally stay at a moderate to buy-in to regular DVC so they can get the deluxe experience.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Forget the rhetorical part. How insane or out of touch with reality or having too much $$$ and no sense of what it is worth does one have to have in order to pay that?

I say that as someone who spent approximately 150 nights at WL between 1994 and 2006. And stayed at everything from standard view to concierge and never paid more than $165 a night.

Again, how deep must your addiction be?

You and I are both addicted to WDW yet we refuse to pay the Wilderness Lodge's $387/night (this summer's standard view rack rate) for a modestly sized hotel room.

Yes, some are addicted to the pixie dust even worse and can't control their spending but, as shown by occupancy rates, there are not enough of these to keep the Deluxe Resort business going at previous levels. Besides, if these folks decide to spend $387/night for the Wilderness Lodge because it makes them happy, that's their choice.

Really, Disney is preying on customer ignorance; those who buy in to the hype; those who believe today's WDW is the same it was when they visited as youths; those who think a modestly-sized pedestrian hotel room at the Wilderness Lodge is somehow worth $387/night. Caveat emptor.

As demonstrated by the Wilderness Lodge's 79% occupancy rate during a peak week earlier this summer, Disney is having an increasingly harder time finding these folks. In growing numbers, consumers are wising up and balking at WDW's prices. Hence the need to convert what once were full hotel rooms to timeshares.

Timeshares always have had shades of P.T. Barnum marketing. It's just sad to see a company that once respected its customers abandon this core value and instead try to take advantage of them.

 

[lazyboy97o]

As a point of clarification, I was assuming that these discussions of affordability and cost related to a "complete" Walt Disney World experience of staying on site. Lodging and meals are a big chunk of the cost and can be reduced significantly by looking outside Walt Disney World.

 

[GoofGoof]

As a point of clarification, I was assuming that these discussions of affordability and cost related to a "complete" Walt Disney World experience of staying on site. Lodging and meals are a big chunk of the cost and can be reduced significantly by looking outside Walt Disney World.

There are a lot of ways to save money. It cost me $1,400 for airfare for 4 on my last trip in 2013. We drove to Florida for less than $400 worth of gas the year before. If you live in Alaska or something that's not really an option, but for me coming from PA I could save $1,000 just by driving.

 

[GrammieBee]

This is true. A family with 2 parents and 3 kids where only 1 parent works and makes $80,000 is a lot better off than a family where each parent makes $40,000 and both have to work to get to $80,000 total. Day care for 3 kids is a huge expense. A married couple with no kids making combined $80,000 is in even better shape financially. The family income alone is not enough to tell the whole story.

Len Testa's analysis uses demographic information from the government based on income level and amount of money spent annually on vacations. The cost of a WDW vacation exceeds the average annual money spent on vacations for families earning less than $100K. It's based on averages. It's not saying nobody with a family income under $100K can go to WDW. Some families may allocate more or less money to vacations. Maybe some families spend less on child care or rent/mortgage or meals out or buying electronics and household items and spend more on vacations.

For a lot of families in this demographic an annual WDW vacation is not affordable. They can still swing a one time trip by saving money or even going a little into debt.

OK. Final comments on the subject. (At least on my part.) No one ever said you HAVE to go to Disney every year. That would be difficult with most family incomes. Which is why many become addlepated on too much pixie dust and buy into DVC whether they can afford it or not.

Everyone who can, in theory, afford Disney has different incomes and expenses. However, everyone can also find reasons or excuses why they can or cannot afford Disney. These reasons or excuses, factual or not, are valid to them.

Excuse me, but the analysus did pretty much say that you needed income of $100,000. per year in order to afford a ONE TIME Disney vacation. Also, I hate to say it, but for every statistal chart saying one thing, you can probably find another saying something else. Each being the analysis of a particular person who supposedly knows what they are doing.

 

[GoofGoof]

You and I are both addicted to WDW yet we refuse to pay the Wilderness Lodge's $387/night (this summer's standard view rack rate) for a modestly sized hotel room.

Yes, some are addicted to the pixie dust even worse and can't control their spending but, as shown by occupancy rates, there are not enough of these to keep the Deluxe Resort business going at previous levels. Besides, if these folks decide to spend $387/night for the Wilderness Lodge because it makes them happy, that's their choice.

Really, Disney is preying on customer ignorance; those who buy in to the hype; those who believe today's WDW is the same it was when they visited as youths; those who think a modestly-sized pedestrian hotel room at the Wilderness Lodge is somehow worth $387/night. Caveat emptor.

As demonstrated by the Wilderness Lodge's 79% occupancy rate during a peak week earlier this summer, Disney is having an increasingly harder time finding these folks. In growing numbers, consumers are wising up and balking at WDW's prices. Hence the need to convert what once were full hotel rooms to timeshares.

Timeshares always have had shades of P.T. Barnum marketing. It's just sad to see a company that once respected its customers abandon this core value and instead try to take advantage of them.

It is not an addiction...I could quit any time

 

[ChrisM]

Wait, you're paying 6-8 thousands dollars for a Disney trip? I'd like to see a breakdown on your costs because that seems incredibly high for someone who's looking to do a decent affordable WDW visit.

Again, stay off-site. You'll get a better room for a substantially better price. Stay in a Disney affiliate like Holiday Inn, who also provide shuttle buses to the parks.

His/her math is spot on: it's pretty easy to drop ~$2,000 per person for a 6-7 night WDW trip. I'm at about $13k with a group of 7, not inclusive of airfare and with no dining plan or discounts.

 

[GoofGoof]

OK. Final comments on the subject. (At least on my part.) No one ever said you HAVE to go to Disney every year. That would be difficult with most family incomes. Which is why many become addlepated on too much pixie dust and buy into DVC whether they can afford it or not.

Everyone who can, in theory, afford Disney has different incomes and expenses. However, everyone can also find reasons or excuses why they can or cannot afford Disney. These reasons or excuses, factual or not, are valid to them.

Excuse me, but the analysus did pretty much say that you needed income of $100,000. per year in order to afford a ONE TIME Disney vacation. Also, I hate to say it, but for every statistal chart saying one thing, you can probably find another saying something else. Each being the analysis of a particular person who supposedly knows what they are doing.

I'm not trying to argue, but if you go back and read the original post from Len Testa I don't think he ever mentioned a ONE TIME Disney vacation. He is using government statistics based on averages. Here is the relevant quote:

"The bad news is that it now costs more than an entire year’s travel budget for 80% of US households. If you’re one of the 230 million Americans in a household making less than $100,000 annually, a trip to the World probably isn’t for you."

The whole point is there are statistics that show on average 80% of US households budget $X or less for vacation each year. The cost of a Disney vacation is greater than $X. Therefore Disney has priced itself out of the market for these family's annual vacation budget. It's not saying they can't or shouldn't go. It's not saying they can't blow the budget one year for a trip. They could spend $5,000 at WDW this year and $1,000 for a local vacation next year to come to a $3,000 average. This is not specific to any one person's situation. It's based on statistical averages.

 

[GoofGoof]

His/her math is spot on: it's pretty easy to drop ~$2,000 per person for a 6-7 night WDW trip. I'm at about $13k with a group of 7, not inclusive of airfare and with no dining plan or discounts.

Last November here was my breakdown for a 7 night trip for a family of 4 (2 kids and 2 adults) staying using my points at BLT:

• $1,000 for 7 day park passes (no park hopper or waterparks)
• $1,000 for the regular DDP.
• $1,400 on airfare.
• $500 between tips, airport parking, checked bag fees and items not covered by DDP (mainly a beer or 3 for me at dinner)
• $100 on groceries delivered to my room
• $300 on souvenirs (all I got was a t-shirt...kids)

That's $4,300 for the week not including any cost of lodging. If you got a discount room at CR that week it would add at least $2,100 to the trip or more. Maybe not quite $2,000 per person, but $1,500 is pretty easy to hit. If you don't eat breakfast in the room every day and you spend a little more on souvenirs it's pretty easy to hit even $2,000 per person for a week.