The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

BwanaBob

BwanaBob

Well-Known Member
Frankly, ladies and gentleman......

I NEED A BREAK!!

I have been non-stop for over a month now....and now the hours are starting to get to me.

If this one hits, I'll drown. It's bad enough I haven't been able to come up for air.

...and to top it all off!... I haven't been able to hit the parks since the first hurricane watches for Charley. *insert pity-party here*
 
Maria

Maria

New Member
The news here said that it could become category 4 within a few days and by saturday, it could hit the Peninsula of Yucatan, Florida´s south and continue to the Gulf to you know where... Louisiana or Texas...

So people in those areas, like Kumi says: "Be prepared! Hopefully it will weaken out and won´t hit us hard. We don´t need another Isidore or Andrew, or Frances or Charley, etc etc...
 
F

FamilyMan

Account Suspended
Original Poster
Wow, just figured out how to format posts...

hmmm...





<DT>Category Four Hurricane: <DD>Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity. Hurricane Charley of 2004 hit Punta Gorda, FL as a Category Four Storm.</DD>



NHC UPDATE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...NEW HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...
THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAVE
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...12.1 N... 63.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

072148W5.gif


Animated Satellite Images:
Infrared
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
Visible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Computer Models:
at200409_model.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html


Have fun! :(
 
TimeTrip

TimeTrip

Well-Known Member
*walks up to ivan*

Hi.. there was a misunderstanding. I just wanted to let you know, it is not on. I know you said it was on, but it isn't on.
 
F

FamilyMan

Account Suspended
Original Poster
Ivan:
No comprehendo Englisho. Muy la Germano. Doy ringato parfavor...

Umm, just goes to show you that there's no talking to a storm. ;)

As for the latest on Ivan, the newest track is even more headed towards FL than before... :(

And now he has 140 mph winds. Yeah, it's still too early to say, but it ain't lookin' good for us. :(
 
M

Mr D

New Member
charley-montage.gif


Hurricane Charley developed from a tropical wave that emerged off the African coast early in the month. Charley attained tropical storm status on the 10th as it passed south of the island of Hispañola. Charley reached hurricane strength on the 11th, passing south of the island of Jamaica. The hurricane then tracked across the western tip of Cuba late on the 12th, crossing over the greater Havana area with maximum sustained winds near 165 km/hr (90 knots or 105 mph), or category two strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Significant property damage exceeding $1 billion (USD) was reported in western Cuba, with 8,300 houses completely destroyed, and three fatalities in Havana (BBC News/OCHA). It was the worst hurricane in Cuba since Michelle in 2001 which caused $1.8 billion (USD) in damage and left 200,000 homeless (Reuters).
Charley entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 13th, passing the Dry Tortugas by mid-morning. The hurricane intensified very rapidly just prior to landfall as it trekked northeastward into Charlotte Harbor and came ashore near Mangrove Point in the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area around 2030UTC (4:30PM EDT) at category 4 intensity. At the time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were near 230 km/hr (125 knots or 145 mph), causing massive damage to coastal areas and barrier islands in the path of the storm's eye.

20.jpg


This is an image from the most current GOES satellite of around 1:15 am PST. 8/8/2004
 
*MichelleP*

*MichelleP*

Member
Yeah, it really does -- and people are freaking out in my area.

They just had a report on tv that Lowe's has 7 generators and expects to sell out as soon as they open the door...there are still several stations here without gas, and apparently there is very little bread in town, too. Looks like we will need to restock some of our supplies before the weekend is over.

It would be interesting to tabluate just how many generators have been purchased for home use in Florida in the last 6 weeks or so. I bet the number is staggering.

What will really stink for people who have been in either of the two previous storms and suffered damage, if they get damage from this one, that is another deductible. Hurricane insurance, from what I understand, has a deductible of 2% of the value your structure. (Feel free to correct me if I am wrong). One lady I work with lost the entire second story of her home in Charley, and all her temporary repairs that were done by a licensed contractor came apart in Frances, which was kind of unexpected because we got some good gusts, but nothing like we had with Charley.

We'll just keep watching...
 
M

Mr D

New Member
A few minutes ago I was watching the latest forecast track of Ivan on The Weather Channel, they show it heading more westerly into the gulf but I see a dome of high pressure in front and west of Ivan and that would tend to act as a wall but because of the "spin" of high pressure (clockwise) and low pressure (counterclockwise) it could possibly push Ivan on a direct westerly path into the Yucatan peninsula but I have an intellectual hunch Ivan is heading north off of the east coast of Fla and never making direct landfall, I'll wait but I really think its goeing to the east side of the Dominican Republic possibly straight north from there and on towards Bermuda just passing east of the Bahamas.You could almost think of the effects of storm steering like a pool table and how a cueball with the right spin will react with the ball it hits, TS's avoid high pressure because the windflow is pushing against them, thats why you see so much reference of the millibar measurement, the lower the number the more the storm "sucks" really, I'm not kidding... ;) because its a lower pressure gradient and is pulling in higher pressure atmoshere. Hurricanes are basically a giant atmosheric whirlpool. Like a drain, they are pulling in moisture especially warm water which rises and combined with the coriolis effect (remember Bart Simpson in Australia trying to make a toilet flush in the same direction as in the US?) that makes northern hemishere rotational flows.
at200409_climo.gif

This is a historical map of storms on previous tracks within 500 miles of Ivan at this near same date in Sept.

I'm not getting to technical here am I? :animwink: gotta run...must be at work before 4 am, full day ahead of me.
 
*MichelleP*

*MichelleP*

Member
Mr D said:
I'm not getting to technical here am I?
Click to expand...

Um, yeah.... :) But thanks!
BTW - We just got my mom a generator from Lowe's, finally. They got a shipment of 7 last night, and announced it at 5:45 am. They were gone right after the store opened. The news showed her sitting on the box waiting for me to come pick it up.
 
PhotoDave219

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Mr D said:
I'm not getting to technical here am I? :animwink: gotta run...must be at work before 4 am, full day ahead of me.
Click to expand...
No, not exactly. However I found a page to links of jscript animations of computer models of tropical forecasts. 3 of the 5, (Including GFDL, Nogaps and UKMet) all were pretty much in agreement that the storm will turn north and then hand a right and pull a Charley.

The good news, if there is any, is that this wouldnt happen for a week. A week is a very long time when it comes to predicting the weather. We should have a lot of lead time on this one...
 
TomDisney

TomDisney

Active Member
A weather forecaster here in Tampa had a good idea. If the hurricane center went and drew the prediction line for the storm out to sea, that maybe Ivan would follow that line? Hey, at this point, it's worth a shot. Heck, maybe if the entire state went down to Key West and on the count of three, every blows real hard, that may push it away. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best....that's all we can do now.
 
P

patelaine1953

New Member
I'm up here in Mass. Last week when my husband was in our local Home Depot saw skids of generators at the front of the store. He thought they might be shipping them down to Florida because we really don't need them here at this time. It's probably their supply for the winter season. I hope that is so. All the northern stores are probably doing the same and will wait for more to refill their stock. We don't really worry about generators until we have a big snowfall that downs power lines. Those occur more in early spring because the snow is much heavier and the trees have started to bud. Mid winter snows are mostly powder, not heavy and wet.
 
DisneyDream2004

DisneyDream2004

Member
Hey,

Let's just be optimistic and say that Ivan is going to spin out and die in an hour or so. YEAH!!!!

Seriously, you can't predict these things, just hope it kind of weakens (like back to a tropical depression) and heads to the gulf.
 
Atta83

Atta83

Well-Known Member
Im not really going to predict anything till friday and see where he is then. If he looks like he is going to head my direction i get to go start buy some more supplies. If he heads somewhere else then he does......Its weather, nothing can be done...
 

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