The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

TURKEY

New Member
Weird_Inside said:
But these are BEYOND warnings and more like constant reminders of how the entire world is going to end.

It was because of that very simmilar screw up with Charley that I believe is the reason for this over-coverage of Frances and Ivan.

BINGO!!!!

Charley was still going to hit the Tampa area only 12+ hours before the eye actually hit Orlando.

With Frances, it was inevitable that Orlando and the entire peninsula was going to be hit with lots of rain and some wind. It was moving 5 MPH. It wasn't going to rapidly change course without the local stations being able to break in and inform the people in plenty of time. There was no need for 24 hr. coverage starting on Friday night. The heaviest stuff didn't reach Orlando for another 24 hrs.

Ivan is 4-5 days out right now. Ever promo for any local station isn't about what's happened nationaly/locally. It's the latest track for Ivan.


You would think that most people in Florida are making preparations for Ivan after 2 storms have already come through within a month. People should already be aware that the storm track you see now, isn't going to be the exact track of the storm. People should be aware that power might be out for days. People in mobile homes should know that they might need to evacuate. People should know to stock up on some food and water.

The media shouldn't/doesn't need to be harping on these types of things over and over.

Being stuck in a room on property stinks. There aren't that many stations that didn't have wall-to-wall coverage of the storm. At least there was ESPN.
 

Weird_Inside

New Member
mattjs said:
The computer models aren't always right.

Really?! Try - EVER.

And yes, I do challenge the integrity of the NHC due to the fact they have yet to be correct in anything. I think that the 5 day forecast is nothing more than a CYA on their part. Saying that a storm could hit ANYWHERE in the state and then being right isn't anything to be proud of.

It's like fishing with dynamite and being proud that you caught something.
 

symbasys

New Member
At the risk of being labeled an alarmist -- this is just in from the AP:

Fla. Urges New Evacuations As Ivan Nears

46 minutes ago

By ADRIAN SAINZ, Associated Press Writer

MIAMI - Tourists and residents were told Thursday they will have to leave the Florida Keys to avoid mighty Hurricane Ivan, even as the state still struggled with the misery left by Hurricanes Frances and Charley.

Forecasters said Ivan — which strengthened early Thursday to 160 mph — could reach the island chain as soon as Sunday, making it the third hurricane to hit Florida in a month. The last time three hurricanes hit Florida in a single season was 1964, when Cleo, Dora and Isabel hit the state.

Charley struck southwest Florida on Aug. 13 with wind of 145 mph, causing an estimated $6.8 billion in damage and 27 deaths. Frances hit the state's eastern coast early Sunday with 105 mph wind, leaving $2 billion to $4 billion in insured damage and at least 15 dead in the state.

Ivan has already killed at least 15 people as it tears through the Caribbean, the most powerful hurricane to hit there in a decade. Ninety percent of the homes in Grenada were damaged, looting erupted and a prison was destroyed, leaving criminals on the loose.

At 11 a.m., Ivan's center was 430 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or about 960 miles southeast of Miami. It had 160 mph wind and was moving about 15 mph.

National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) forecasters predict that Ivan could hit the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, with wind of 131 to 155 mph, late Sunday or early Monday.

Monroe County emergency officials asked tourists to leave the Keys at 9 a.m. Thursday, the third visitor evacuation there in a month, following Charley and Frances. Mobile home residents were urged to begin evacuating at 6 p.m. Thursday, and other residents were told to prepare to leave Friday.

A single highway links the islands with mainland Florida. The last time everyone on the Keys were told to evacuate was in 2001 for Hurricane Michelle, a 135 mph storm that wound up missing a direct hit on the chain. Officials estimated that only 15 percent of Keys residents left then.

"I don't think that people will think twice when we tell them it's a Four heading right at us. I think they will be pretty responsive," Monroe County emergency manager Irene Toner said.

Should Ivan strike Florida, it would be the first time since 1950 that two major hurricanes — ones with wind at least 111 mph — hit Florida so close together.

Jim Lushine, a National Weather Service (news - web sites) meteorologist in Miami, said Ivan could make history.

"We could have three of the most intense storms to ever hit Florida in one season that we know about, anyway," Lushine said.


Some businesses have already seen a steep drop in the number of tourists since Charley and Frances. Hog's Breath Saloon in downtown Key West has had its worst six weeks of business since 1988, general manager Charlie Bauer said.

Bauer said he normally rides out hurricanes in the Keys, but not this time: "I won't even hang around for a Category 3."

President Bush (news - web sites), who signed a $2 billion disaster relief package for victims of Frances and Charley, toured Florida's Atlantic coast by helicopter on Wednesday, handed out bags of ice and bottled water in Fort Pierce and visited the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The president, who was joined by his brother Gov. Jeb Bush, said he would seek additional funds to rebuild infrastructure and provide disaster loan assistance to businesses and homeowners.

"We're working as hard as we can to get them the supplies they need. That's what we're here for," President Bush said.

Many residents said it will take months to ease the anxieties of rebuilding their homes and their lives. State officials said 1.1 million homes and businesses were without power Thursday. Flood warnings continued in five counties near the Georgia line, half-ripe fruit littered citrus groves and the remains of roofs, sheds and fishing docks still lie scattered across the ground.

"Look at this," said Gloria Serrano, who toured her mother-in-law's damaged West Palm Beach mobile home. "There's no water, there's no electricity, there's sewage on the ground and there are trees on my mother-in-law's roof. I'm very worried."

After crossing the state, Frances moved into the Gulf of Mexico. It then hit northwestern Florida as a strong, wet tropical storm before moving into Georgia and northward into the eastern United States.

Remnants of Frances continued to create problems Thursday.

In Ohio, where up to 7 inches of rain fell, two deaths were attributed to the storm. In Asheville, N.C., tens of thousands of people remained without drinking water early Thursday after a major water line from a reservoir washed out.

The emergency money approved by the president for Florida would provide direct aid for families, debris removal, repairs and emergency food and shelter. Gov. Bush said the state and federal governments are sending a "massive amount of support," but added that "it's a logistical challenge that people have to keep in perspective. It isn't going to be done overnight."

Palm Beach County Commissioner Warren Newell said "we need more of everything" at the county's emergency distribution centers, where thousands of people have come for ice and water. He also said there was a problem with getting enough trucks in because of fuel shortages.

___

On the Net:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Florida Emergency Management: http://www.floridadisaster.org
 

TURKEY

New Member
mattjs said:
Again though. There was in fact a huricane over Orlando. I suppose the Weather Channel could have not reported on that, or simply not shown the radar imagery showing that there was in fact a hurricane over Orlando. And I suppose the NHC could have ignored it as well. But I thought both of those entities handled the situation great.

From my viewing, I thought the severity in coastal communities was emphasized appropriately. And given what happened in those towns, I'd say they were right on to do so. I also thought the weakening nature of the wind was significantly emphasized as the storm pushed inland. Which also turned out to be right on. If people simply look at the radar imagery but don't listen to what's being reported about it, who's fault is that. And again, I though WC was very clear that the storm had weakened significantly by the time it was over Orlando.

These are incredibly dangerous, and very difficult to predict storms. Note that the NHC marks the out days (days 4 & 5) as dashed lines, and clearly indicates the high uncertainty of the predictions for those days. As does WC by broadening the cone of strike possibilties in the out days to as much as 700 or 800 miles. And by clearly explaining that to the viewer in their tropical updates (but again, only if you're listening and not simply looking at the graphics). So no, it's not perfect forecasting. The computer models aren't always right. But I believe both entities are very clear about that if you're paying attention.

But not long ago (before we had sophisticated modeling for these things like we do now) these storms regularly resulted in large numbers of casuslties. So personally I say thank goodness for NWS/NHC and the work they do. No weather forecasting is perfect, but they (and I would argue the Weather Channel as well) have undoubtedly saved many, many lives, since coming on the scene through their timely forecasting/reporting. And not just with hurricanes, but also tornados, Blizzards, etc.

And so I guess I agree with you on the pointlessness of continuing the debate. If you've truly gotten to the point where you actually question the integrity of the National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, then I'd say there's really no point in continuing the discussion.
The local Orlando stations didn't do that. They kept at it showing every limb, piece of siding, shingle that hit the ground.

I certainly didn't see/hear anything that said that Orlando wasn't getting much of the storm. Just that we're still seeing 70-80 MPH winds.
 

symbasys

New Member
Here's a question for you guys and gals out there -- if Ivan does actually hit Florida, it will be the 4th tropical system to make landfall in the state this year (Bonnie, Charley, Frances & Ivan.) Has that ever happened before in one season?
 

TURKEY

New Member
symbasys said:
At the risk of being labeled an alarmist -- this is just in from the AP:

Fla. Urges New Evacuations As Ivan Nears

46 minutes ago

By ADRIAN SAINZ, Associated Press Writer

MIAMI - Tourists and residents were told Thursday they will have to leave the Florida Keys to avoid mighty Hurricane Ivan, even as the state still struggled with the misery left by Hurricanes Frances and Charley.

Forecasters said Ivan — which strengthened early Thursday to 160 mph — could reach the island chain as soon as Sunday, making it the third hurricane to hit Florida in a month. The last time three hurricanes hit Florida in a single season was 1964, when Cleo, Dora and Isabel hit the state.


Case in point. (this is actually about 3 hrs. old)

I happened to flip onto a local station. Commercial comes on. EVACUATION ORDERS!!!!

The headline of the article. FLA URGES NEW EVACUATIONS.

They don't mention that it's only for the Keys right now. It would cause less panic if it mentioned, KEYS EVACUATION AS A PRECAUTION.
 

TURKEY

New Member
Atta83 said:
Thats the thing though you sometimes have to remind people daily because some people live very busy lives. And then again you have some people who need constant reminders. The reason by doing this is to avoid the mass of confusion going on with the past two storms that just went through. When they told Floridans in the path, they evacuated. They saw what happened the last one and did not want that to happen again, they did not in a way want to be suprised like Punta Gorta, they did not know they were going to be hit full blast. They all though it was going to go north.

No harm meant by any of this.

How many of you honestly believe that there are people in Florida that don't know that Ivan might pose a risk to them and they need reminded constantly (since Monday after Frances fizzled out with little damage) that Ivan might hit the state on Sunday at the earliest?

Mass Confusion?

Like what happened when Orlando filled it's hotel rooms with Tampa residents 2 days in advance of the storm and left no rooms available for those that ended up being in the path of the storm?

Like the massive evacuations that occured with Frances with many unnecessary.

Like the confusion of evacuating the Keys now, followed by other areas in the state in the next couple of days.
 

TURKEY

New Member
Atta83 said:
Thats interesting! Thanks Turkey!
This is the point that Speck, Wierd Inside, and I are trying to make.

The media is overblowing things. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON that the headline must have been written like that.
 

Atta83

Well-Known Member
I think everyone should just watch this and wait till it gets closer. I mean A LOT can happen in the next few days.
 

Atta83

Well-Known Member
TURKEY said:
This is the point that Speck, Wierd Inside, and I are trying to make.

The media is overblowing things. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON that the headline must have been written like that.

I was saying it to the quote that was in your post.. that former post has been edited.

Im not even going to comment on this stuff anymore, this thread has gone out of way propotion.

All Im gonna do now is watch my tv and do my thing now. And continue to track the storm.
 

mattjs

Active Member
But they make no attempt to claim that the out-day forecasts are accurate so I'm not sure why there'd be any confusion, or panic about it. To the contrary NWS/NHC, and WC go out of their way to make it abundantly clear how uncertain the day4 & day5 forcasts are. Again, if you just look at the graphics (the track map) without reading the "forecast discussion" then you may very well be confused. Though even there I'd say it's pretty clear by the dashed lines that those extended areas are unpredictable.

For example, if you read the most recent NHC discussion regarding Ivan it clearly states that they don't have a clue what it's gonna do once it clears Cuba.
This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next three days. There is high confidence in this portion of the forecast because the hurricane will be steered by the flow surrounding a well-esteblished subtropical. All models are highly clustered during this preriod...bringing the hurricane between Cuba and the caman islands. Thereafter...the forecast track becomes highly uncertain. Steering currents are forecast to collapse and consequently...the hurricane is expected to slow down as it crosses Cuba. A ridge over the bahamas a little stronger than anticipated...will bring the hurricane toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico as indicated by the UK...Canadian and NOGAPS global models. A weaker ridge than anticipated could result in a more northward track over the bahamas and nearby the east coast of Florida as indicated by the GFS. The 4-5 day official forecast...which is highly uncertain...calls for a solution in between...bringing the hurricane over west/central Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then Florida.

Doesn't seem to me like they're pullin any punches there. They're tellin you flat out, that due to the expected lack of steering currents, and the uncertainty of the ridge over the bahamas, they don't know what it's gonna do after Saturday/Sunday. But, given the current strength of the storm, they want everyone to be aware of the range of possibilties.

And by the way, saying that the NWS/NHC is "never correct in anything" is obviously false. They've been correct on many things in their history of forecasting.
 

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member
Atta83 said:
I was saying it to the quote that was in your post..

Im not even going to comment on this stuff anymore, this thread has gone out of way propotion.

All Im gonna do now is watch my tv and do my thing now. And continue to track the storm.
That's a loss for the thread that you won't post anymore, Atta. I stopped ealier and now notice that it seems more and more people are still having to reply to W_I. This is the third "official" thread and the other two were informative and showed the worry that most have for friends and family in the hurricane path. Unfortunately, a new member has decided to introduce "debate" here and we've obliged them and the two Ivan threads have fallen apart.

Why don't we all agree that everyone doesn't agree and move the panic / news handling debate over to chit-chat. That way, everyone wins!
 

Atta83

Well-Known Member
wannab@dis said:
That's a loss for the thread that you won't post anymore, Atta. I stopped ealier and now notice that it seems more and more people are still having to reply to W_I. This is the third "official" thread and the other two were informative and showed the worry that most have for friends and family in the hurricane path. Unfortunately, a new member has decided to introduce "debate" here and we've obliged them and the two Ivan threads have fallen apart.

Why don't we all agree that everyone doesn't agree and move the panic / news handling debate over to chit-chat. That way, everyone wins!

I agree with you wannab@dis. Im just going to keep posting what I keep hearing from NOAA and such. Ya know "Try" to get the thread or threads back to where they should go. ;)
 

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member
Atta83 said:
I agree with you wannab@dis. Im just going to keep posting what I keep hearing from NOAA and such. Ya know "Try" to get the thread or threads back to where they should go. ;)
Good for you!
 

speck76

Well-Known Member
mattjs said:
Again though. There was in fact a huricane over Orlando. I suppose the Weather Channel could have not reported on that, or simply not shown the radar imagery showing that there was in fact a hurricane over Orlando. And I suppose the NHC could have ignored it as well. But I thought both of those entities handled the situation great.

If it was just the Weather Channel, that would have been one thing, but it was not....it was EVERY NETWORK CHANNEL!
 

mattjs

Active Member
Atta83 said:
I agree with you wannab@dis. Im just going to keep posting what I keep hearing from NOAA and such. Ya know "Try" to get the thread or threads back to where they should go. ;)

Good point. The thread topic's too important to let it slide into a debate on coverage. Keep the updates flowing, and get it back on track.
 

Menjiness

New Member
It is offical, Ivan is cancelling our trip. :(

Yes, I understand that things could change. But I would rather be safe then sorry and not stuck in a room wasting time.

So anyone have suggestions for good times in November??

Thanks
Desiree
 

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