HURRICANE FRANCES -- CLOSING IN
Here it comes
Frances weakens but still packs punch
September 4, 2004, 4:54 AM EDT
Forecasters downgraded Hurricane Frances to a Category 2 storm Friday night but warned Floridians not to take the storm lightly as concerns shifted from high winds to torrential rains.
"This is good news, but don't let your guard down. This is still a formidable hurricane," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center near Miami. "The wind field is really spreading out, and I can assure you this will have an impact on Central Florida."
At 5 a.m. today, Frances' top sustained winds were 105 mph, down from 145 mph just a day earlier. It was located 125 miles east of West Palm Beach and projected to make landfall this evening just north of Fort Pierce.
Forecasters said with the storm's size, Central Floridians could begin to feel tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph at noon or later. Hurricane-force winds extend 110 miles from the storm's center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 200 miles from the center.
Moving at 6 mph, Frances has the potential to drop an average of 8 to 9 inches of rain and up to 18 inches in some areas of Central Florida, which would cause major flooding of roads and low-lying areas. And the storm's slow speed means coastal areas could experience hurricane-force winds of 74 mph and higher for 12 hours or longer.
The Friday night forecast brought the eye of the storm south of Orlando. But because the highest winds are at the northeastern side of the storm, Central Florida would still take a beating as Frances crawls across the state, state meteorologist Ben Nelson said.
"Unfortunately, Polk and Osceola are going to take the double hit here," Nelson said, referring to Frances and Hurricane Charley, which hit Central Florida with 100-mph winds Aug. 13. "They're going to get it from the other side here with Frances."
Other forecasters said it was hard to say if the weakening trend would continue.
"Right now, it's a brief trend, but it's over warm water," hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said. "Conditions could change. It could intensify some because it's moving over warm water."
In any case, Craig Fugate, director of the state Division of Emergency Management, said Frances is still bringing a variety of scary conditions -- high winds, heavy rain, a massive storm surge and tornadoes.
A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet could last through two or more tide cycles, Fugate said, creating huge problems along the barrier islands and in low-lying areas. Urban areas could be particularly hard hit by flooding, he said.
"If we get 18 inches of rain we could see water covering a lot of neighborhood streets, and water in a lot of homes," said meteorologist Dennis Decker of the National Weather Service in Melbourne. "There's no drainage system anywhere that can handle that."
The storm's downgrade probably won't affect the amount of rainfall it drops, he said.
Forecasters added a tropical-storm warning to the hurricane watch already posted for north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A hurricane warning also remained in effect for Florida's east coast from Florida City to Flagler Beach. Late Friday, a tropical-storm warning was issued for the Southwest Florida coast from Bonita Beach eastward to south of Florida City.
Federal Emergency Management Agency officials said more than 4,000 emergency workers -- three times the number for Charley -- are poised to come to Florida after the storm barrels through.
A day after 2.5 million Floridians were told to flee Hurricane Frances before it was too late, residents waited anxiously in shelters, hotels and boarded-up homes as the lumbering, monstrous storm wobbled slowly toward the state's Atlantic coast.
The slow-moving storm gave residents more time to prepare, fret and stew.
"It seems like it's been going on for a week," said John Mafera, a 28-year-old aviation consultant in south Brevard County. "You just want to get it over with and see what needs to be done."
Frances' slow approach and downgraded status fed the frustrations of residents who waited in lines for plywood, gasoline and other hurricane-survival supplies.
"Every time I've done the board-up-your-house thing, we haven't gotten anything," said Joe Winter, who came from New Jersey to visit his mother, only to find she had left for England.
In Brevard County, Maria Seelman and her husband decided to ride out Frances in their dream home, a large Spanish-style villa on the Indian River. They used the extra time to stock their "hurricane room" with water, fans, flashlights and a Bible. "I've got water to last 10 years, probably," said Seelman, 43. "I think I bought out Publix."
Throughout the state, emergency officials prepared for the rising waters that Frances is expected to bring.
Orange County urged residents in low-lying areas to head for higher ground. In Seminole County, deputies with loudspeakers drove through neighborhoods urging people to flee.
In Fort Pierce, Frances' delayed arrival gave people an extra shot at last-minute preparations, but it didn't last long. By early afternoon, the first bands of Frances began to pelt the coastal city with hard rain and growing winds.
By late afternoon, virtually all businesses were closed and there was little traffic on the roads other than police cruisers. By early evening, U.S. Highway 1, the main north-south route through the town, was deserted, and large pools of storm water already were forming from the heavy intermittent rain.
Throughout the state, residents flocked to the stores that remained open, hoping to pick up bottled water and canned goods while long lines formed outside home-supply stores for scarce plywood or generators. Hotels and motels inland filled up, and gas stations ran dry.
Many Central Florida businesses were shutting their doors by Friday afternoon for want of customers and lack of supplies. Others were concerned for employees. Most major retailers planned to remain closed today and possibly Sunday, depending on the storm's severity. Some had generators at the ready, and fleets of trucks waiting outside the state to re-stock shelves.
All the major theme parks, except for Disney-MGM Studios and Epcot, closed early Friday. All of them -- SeaWorld Orlando, Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando -- planned to be closed today. On Friday night, none had decided whether to reopen Sunday.
With the parks closed and stores boarded up across the tourist corridor, many said they were unsure how they would pass the hours today. Costumed characters were expected to be on hand at Disney hotels to entertain weary tourists.
A steady stream of traffic rolled into the closed Pirates Cove miniature golf course near Disney. Cars pulled in, then quickly pulled out. In one of the cars, Carol and Josh Franklin from Atlanta said they had found few options for entertainment.
"Nothing is open, except for a few grocery stores," Carol Franklin said. "We go from one empty lot to another, looking for something to do. This isn't how we envisioned a trip to Disney World."
In Vero Beach on Saturday night, nearly every store, restaurant and gas station was closed and boarded up. One store had spray-painted messages in large letters across the plywood. "Hurricane Frances," read one. "I hate you!!!" Another stated simply: "Osama Bin Frances."
Airports along Florida's east coast were closed or operating at reduced levels Friday under the specter of Hurricane Frances, sending some travelers scrambling to find hotel rooms or take refuge in shelters.
More than 15,000 people awaited Frances' arrival in 163 shelters statewide. In Orlando, Bibianne Despeines took her four children to a shelter at Odyssey Middle School instead of staying in her apartment, as they did for Charley.
"Last time, my kids were screaming and yelling. This time, they asked me to go away, find someplace" safe to stay, she said Friday. "I'm scared to stay in my apartment."
At the South Miami Senior High School, the waiting game was turning anxiety into anger, especially among cruise-ship tourists who expected to be enjoying the lap of luxury instead of the bare essentials at a crowded shelter.
"For this, I paid $5,000?" said Katy Attard, 52, a resident of Malta who had flown 13 hours to take a two-week cruise aboard the Carnival Glory. "I'm supposed to be on a five-star ship, and I'm sleeping on the floor without even a pillow."