Taika Waititi to Direct Thor: Love and Thunder (2022)

[TP2000]

Thor's box office continues to fade quickly this weekend. It appears the Minions will make more than Thor this summer...

Friday Box Office: âThor 4â Dives As âTop Gun 2â And âMinions 2â Hold Firm

We’re still looking at a fourth Thor movie that should end up just over/under the $315 million total of Taika Waititi’s Thor: Ragnarok in raw domestic earnings.

www.forbes.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Thor's box office continues to fade quickly this weekend. It appears the Minions will make more than Thor this summer...

Friday Box Office: âThor 4â Dives As âTop Gun 2â And âMinions 2â Hold Firm

We’re still looking at a fourth Thor movie that should end up just over/under the $315 million total of Taika Waititi’s Thor: Ragnarok in raw domestic earnings.

www.forbes.com

Its likely going to end up doing more domestically then the previous Thor movies, which is phenomenal for a sequel like this.

Minions is also starting to be dropped by theaters, whereas Thor isn't. So I wouldn't be too sure on Minions making more than Thor4. As there is also starting to be some rumblings about Minions going to digital mid-August. Which if that is the case you'll start seeing those numbers drop hard in the coming weeks as any remaining parent who haven't taken their kids will wait.

 

[TP2000]

Minions is also starting to be dropped by theaters, whereas Thor isn't. So I wouldn't be too sure on Minions making more than Thor4.

I posted this screenshot from Saturday afternoon over in the Lightyear thread, but it can also be used here.

Minions has already grossed more than Thor, and Thor is dropping faster than Minions. We'll check back in August, but here's the current as of Friday...

 

[Disney Irish]

I posted this screenshot from Saturday afternoon over in the Lightyear thread, but it can also be used here.

Minions has already grossed more than Thor, and Thor is dropping faster than Minions. We'll check back in August, but here's the current as of Friday...

View attachment 655282

You're trying to make the numbers fit your narrative, but not actually looking at them honestly.

Minions has been out for a full week longer than Thor. So if you really want to see which is performing better you have to look at the day-to-day total gross break down instead of the total run gross. On day 15 Thor has earned a total of $260.5M vs Minions total of $244.7M on its day 15. So yeah Thor has actually earned $15.8M more in its run than Minions had in the same number of days, and I don't see that changing just yet.

We'll see next week at this time if Thor breaks the $285.3M that Minions has done this week at this time. And that will give us a good indication of whether what you claim is correct or not. At this point I don't think it will be correct. Especially since it doesn't look like Minions will even make the same domestically as the first one at $336M. Thor at least still has the potential to beat the other Thor movies which topped out at $315M domestically.

 

[spacemt354]

You're trying to make the numbers fit your narrative, but not actually looking at them honestly.

Minions has been out for a full week longer than Thor. So if you really want to see which is performing better you have to look at the day-to-day total gross break down instead of the total run gross. On day 15 Thor has earned a total of $260.5M vs Minions total of $244.7M on its day 15. So yeah Thor has actually earned $15.8M more in its run than Minions had in the same number of days, and I don't see that changing just yet.

We'll see next week at this time if Thor breaks the $285.3M that Minions has done this week at this time. And that will give us a good indication of whether what you claim is correct or not. At this point I don't think it will be correct. Especially since it doesn't look like Minions will even make the same domestically as the first one at $336M. Thor at least still has the potential to beat the other Thor movies which topped out at $315M domestically.

It will be interesting to see the final results.

Yes on Day 15, Thor: Love and Thunder earned more than Minions: The Rise of Gru did in the same time frame, largely thanks to the opening weekend box office numbers the film earned. Those numbers though, were followed by a 68% drop off in its 2nd weekend, and now a 53% drop in its 3rd weekend.

Compared with Minions, that film is dropping at a slower rate, with 57% in its 2nd weekend, 42% in its 3rd weekend, and 34% in its 4th weekend. But it also opened at $107 million compared to L&T's $144 million.

Right now, Thor: Love & Thunder is at $598,220,698 after 3 weekends worldwide and Minions: The Rise of Gru is at $640,252,590 after 4 weekends worldwide.

Thor is also trailing Minions by $21 million domestically ($276,220,698 vs $297,856,590)

I think next weekend will be the true test as another animated film, DC League of Super-Pets, hits theaters. Will that cause a dramatic drop in Minions box office, enough for Thor to make up ground? Or will the influx of families cause a rollover wave into Minions continuing its current trend.

 

[Disney Irish]

It will be interesting to see the final results.

Yes on Day 15, Thor: Love and Thunder earned more than Minions: The Rise of Gru did in the same time frame, largely thanks to the opening weekend box office numbers the film earned. Those numbers though, were followed by a 68% drop off in its 2nd weekend, and now a 53% drop in its 3rd weekend.

Compared with Minions, that film is dropping at a slower rate, with 57% in its 2nd weekend, 42% in its 3rd weekend, and 34% in its 4th weekend. But it also opened at $107 million compared to L&T's $144 million.

Right now, Thor: Love & Thunder is at $598,220,698 after 3 weekends worldwide and Minions: The Rise of Gru is at $640,252,590 after 4 weekends worldwide.

Thor is also trailing Minions by $21 million domestically ($276,220,698 vs $297,856,590)

I think next weekend will be the true test as another animated film, DC League of Super-Pets, hits theaters. Will that cause a dramatic drop in Minions box office, enough for Thor to make up ground? Or will the influx of families cause a rollover wave into Minions continuing its current trend.

Yes, I agree with you. Which is why you have to look at the day-to-day total gross break down instead of the total run gross.

Doing an apples-to-apples comparison shows that Thor is actually performing better day-to-day than Minions, even if its drops are higher. As I mentioned it doesn't even look like this Minions movie will beat the 1st one, showing that maybe the Minions don't have the staying power that some think they do. Whereas Thor4 appears to be trending toward breaking at least the domestic BO of the other Thor films. It may not break the global though which says something about missing China and Russia. But is clear that Marvel still has the staying power at least domestically. As we keep saying after every one of these films, there really isn't super hero fatigue that some keep claiming is happening.

 

[spacemt354]

Yes, I agree with you. Which is why you have to look at the day-to-day total gross break down instead of the total run gross.

Doing an apples-to-apples comparison shows that Thor is actually performing better day-to-day than Minions, even if its drops are higher. As I mentioned it doesn't even look like this Minions movie will beat the 1st one, showing that maybe the Minions don't have the staying power that some think they do. Whereas Thor4 appears to be trending toward breaking at least the domestic BO of the other Thor films. It may not break the global though which says something about missing China and Russia. But is clear that Marvel still has the staying power at least domestically. As we keep saying after every one of these films, there really isn't super hero fatigue that some keep claiming is happening.

Minions: The Rise of Gru is actually ahead of Minions (2015) at its Week 4 benchmark domestically by about $10 million.

 

[Disney Irish]

Minions: The Rise of Gru is actually ahead of Minions (2015) at its Week 4 benchmark domestically by about $10 million.

View attachment 655343

View attachment 655344

You're not thinking 2022, where now movies go to streaming after about 45 days.

At the 45 day mark the first Minions had already crossed $320M, I don't know if the second one has that much gas left in it.

Do you think it'll get ~$25M in the next 20ish days?

Edit - Or for that matter do you think that it'll get another ~$39M to top the first Minions at $336M in the next 20-30 days before it hits streaming?

 

[TP2000]

You're trying to make the numbers fit your narrative, but not actually looking at them honestly.

Numbers are simple things. They either are a specific number, or they are not a specific number.

I'm not that involved in Hollywood box office accounting to create a "narrative" about basic numbers, I was actually just regurgitating the Forbes article that I posted above after I read it while eating a bagel on the patio.

From the Forbes article (who employs industry journalists that I assume are smarter than me)...

"[Minions: Rise of Gru] is tied with Secret Life of Pets’ $297 million 24-day total and has passed [the first] Minions’ $288 million end-of-weekend-four cume with better legs to boot. Since it doesn’t look like Thor 4 is going to rally, it is now just a question of whether (in terms of the domestic summer movie rankings) Universal and Illumination’s Minions 2 ends up just over Universal and Amblin’s Jurassic World Dominion’s presumed over/under $375 million domestic finish."

Friday Box Office: âThor 4â Dives As âTop Gun 2â And âMinions 2â Hold Firm

We’re still looking at a fourth Thor movie that should end up just over/under the $315 million total of Taika Waititi’s Thor: Ragnarok in raw domestic earnings.

www.forbes.com

 

[TP2000]

You're not thinking 2022, where now movies go to streaming after about 45 days.

You're not thinking box office hits, where new movies don't go to streaming after 45 days. (Or in the idiotic Pixar strategy, where they send them direct-to-streaming For Free! even though audiences are packing theaters again)

Universal will likely wait until 60 days or more before it sends their hit Minions 2 to Peacock. Universal's Jurassic Whatever won't be streaming on Peacock until October, according to industry trade magazines. Universal's Top Gun Maverick may not show up on Peacock until the fall too.

If you have products that people actually want to buy, you don't give them away for free on your streaming service.

Do you think it'll get ~$25M in the next 20ish days?

Edit - Or for that matter do you think that it'll get another ~$39M to top the first Minions at $336M in the next 20-30 days before it hits streaming?

It likely will. Minions 2 is falling much slower than Thor, and Minions 2 has already grossed $21 Million more than Thor after this weekend. But Thor is only pulling in just over $1 Million more per day, even though Thor is a week fresher than Minions 2. It's that 50%+ week over week drop that's hurting Thor. The Minions have more endurance than the God of Thunder does, and as a Scandinavian that hurts me to admit it.

Updated just this afternoon Pacific Time, summarizing the domestic box office for this weekend...

 

[Disney Irish]

Numbers are simple things. They either are a specific number, or they are not a specific number.

I'm not that involved in Hollywood box office accounting to create a "narrative" about basic numbers, I was actually just regurgitating the Forbes article that I posted above after I read it while eating a bagel on the patio.

From the Forbes article (who employs industry journalists that I assume are smarter than me)...

"[Minions: Rise of Gru] is tied with Secret Life of Pets’ $297 million 24-day total and has passed [the first] Minions’ $288 million end-of-weekend-four cume with better legs to boot. Since it doesn’t look like Thor 4 is going to rally, it is now just a question of whether (in terms of the domestic summer movie rankings) Universal and Illumination’s Minions 2 ends up just over Universal and Amblin’s Jurassic World Dominion’s presumed over/under $375 million domestic finish."

Friday Box Office: âThor 4â Dives As âTop Gun 2â And âMinions 2â Hold Firm

We’re still looking at a fourth Thor movie that should end up just over/under the $315 million total of Taika Waititi’s Thor: Ragnarok in raw domestic earnings.

www.forbes.com

Well instead of simply regurgitating how about actually looking at the numbers and thinking about the current Hollywood climate we're in with streaming involved.

NBCUniversal is pushing Peacock big time, because they are lagging in subscribers. Which means they are more likely to push Minions 2 over to Peacock as soon as possible, which would be mid-August. So I don't see how at this point that Forbes, which doesn't even mention Peacock, is even looking at this realistically. They are using the old model thinking without streaming services. Its a whole new ballgame my friend, which requires a whole different mode of thinking.

So yeah I don't see how Minions 2 is going to make more at the BO than Thor 4, or Jurassic World Dominion, or even the first Minions movie. Now I obviously could be wrong, but I don't think so given what we know about studios sticking pretty closely to the 45 day window now.

 

[Disney Irish]

You're not thinking box office hits, where new movies don't go to streaming after 45 days. (Or in the idiotic Pixar strategy, where they send them direct-to-streaming For Free! even though audiences are packing theaters again)

Universal will likely wait until 60 days or more before it sends their hit Minions 2 to Peacock.



It likely will. Minions 2 is falling much slower than Thor, and Minions 2 has already grossed $21 Million more than Thor after this weekend. But Thor is only pulling in just over $1 Million more per day, even though Thor is a week older than Minions 2. It's that 50%+ week over week drop that's hurting Thor. The Minions have more endurance than the God of Thunder does, and as a Scandinavian that hurts me to admit it.

Updated just this afternoon Pacific Time, summarizing the domestic box office for this weekend...

View attachment 655352

Guess you're smarter than me, because I don't see it my friend.....

 

[spacemt354]

You're not thinking 2022, where now movies go to streaming after about 45 days.

At the 45 day mark the first Minions had already crossed $320M, I don't know if the second one has that much gas left in it.

Do you think it'll get ~$25M in the next 20ish days?

Edit - Or for that matter do you think that it'll get another ~$39M to top the first Minions at $336M in the next 20-30 days before it hits streaming?

The 45 day mark is the earliest a film would go to streaming. It seems like the streaming date is largely based on how the film is doing in theaters, ie Top Gun: Maverick

So that is why I mentioned above, how interesting it will be to see how Minions fares against DC Super-Pets. If it holds its own, it could easily continue on into August and surpass the original. If it takes a hit, then it may just barely miss the original.

Regardless with an $80 million budget, it will still be a very profitable film when all said and done, whereas Thor: Love and Thunder's $250 million budget requires a much higher net gross.

 

[Disney Irish]

The 45 day mark is the earliest a film would go to streaming. It seems like the streaming date is largely based on how the film is doing in theaters, ie Top Gun: Maverick

So that is why I mentioned above, how interesting it will be to see how Minions fares against DC Super-Pets. If it holds its own, it could easily continue on into August and surpass the original. If it takes a hit, then it may just barely miss the original.

Regardless with an $80 million budget, it will still be a very profitable film when all said and done, whereas Thor: Love and Thunder's $250 million budget requires a much higher net gross.

Yeah I never mentioned budgets because that is a different conversation.

But yeah it'll be interesting to see if it drops hard next week, I anticipate it will but that is just my opinion.

BTW, just so its known I actually like the film so I don't have anything against it. I'm just looking at the actual landscape with streaming and what most studios are doing. Sure there are outliers like Maverick, but for the most part Studios have been sticking to the 45 day windows this year.

 

[TP2000]

Well instead of simply regurgitating how about actually looking at the numbers and thinking about the current Hollywood climate we're in with streaming involved.

NBCUniversal is pushing Peacock big time, because they are lagging in subscribers. Which means they are more likely to push Minions 2 over to Peacock as soon as possible, which would be mid-August. So I don't see how at this point that Forbes, which doesn't even mention Peacock, is even looking at this realistically. They are using the old model thinking without streaming services. Its a whole new ballgame my friend, which requires a whole different mode of thinking.

I'm going to regurgitate my answer above, because I edited in a few minutes later and you might not have seen it.

You're not thinking box office hits, where new movies don't go to streaming after 45 days. (Or in the idiotic Pixar strategy, where they send them direct-to-streaming For Free! even though audiences are packing theaters again)

Universal will likely wait until 60 days or more before it sends their hit Minions 2 to Peacock, because it has more staying power than something like Thor (Or, God forbid, a flop like Lightyear).

Universal's Jurassic Whatever won't be streaming on Peacock until October, according to industry trade magazines. Paramount's Top Gun 2 has been in theaters for 60 days now, and still hasn't even mentioned streaming.

If you have products that people actually want to buy, you don't give them away for free on your streaming service.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm going to regurgitate my answer above, because I edited in a few minutes later and you might not have seen it.

You're not thinking box office hits, where new movies don't go to streaming after 45 days. (Or in the idiotic Pixar strategy, where they send them direct-to-streaming For Free! even though audiences are packing theaters again)

Universal will likely wait until 60 days or more before it sends their hit Minions 2 to Peacock, because it has more staying power than something like Thor (Or, God forbid, a flop like Lightyear).

Universal's Jurassic Whatever won't be streaming on Peacock until October, according to industry trade magazines. Paramount's Top Gun 2 has been in theaters for 60 days now, and still hasn't even mentioned streaming.

If you have products that people actually want to buy, you don't give them away for free on your streaming service.

My friend I'm just going to say this:

I am thinking about the "Box Office Hit" and streaming at the same time. Outside of a couple films the studios have stuck pretty closely to the 45 day window in 2022.

Will Minions 2 be one of the outliers that goes beyond the 45 day window, I don't know, but neither do you. If it does go beyond the 45 day window then I may adjust my answer. But until that day comes I'm going to base my opinion on the new streaming model that a majority of studios are sticking to with 45 days.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm going to regurgitate my answer above, because I edited in a few minutes later and you might not have seen it.

You're not thinking box office hits, where new movies don't go to streaming after 45 days. (Or in the idiotic Pixar strategy, where they send them direct-to-streaming For Free! even though audiences are packing theaters again)

Universal will likely wait until 60 days or more before it sends their hit Minions 2 to Peacock, because it has more staying power than something like Thor (Or, God forbid, a flop like Lightyear).

Universal's Jurassic Whatever won't be streaming on Peacock until October, according to industry trade magazines. Paramount's Top Gun 2 has been in theaters for 60 days now, and still hasn't even mentioned streaming.

If you have products that people actually want to buy, you don't give them away for free on your streaming service.

Also just an FYI Jurassic World Dominion went to digital streaming purchase on July 15th at the 36 day mark, before the 45 day window. I can watch it right now at home if I wanted to. So they aren't just sticking to a pure theatrical window even with "Box Office Hits".

This is why you have to start thinking beyond the theaters, because that is exactly what the studios are doing. Maverick seem to be the only outlier of Paramount not wanting to put it into any sort of digital platform, but that is more of an exception rather than the rule.

 

[TP2000]

Also just an FYI Jurassic World Dominion went to digital streaming purchase on July 15th at the 36 day mark, before the 45 day window. I can watch it right now at home if I wanted to. So they aren't just sticking to a pure theatrical window even with "Box Office Hits".

Yeah, but you have to pay $20 to watch it on Amazon, and then you get 48 hours to watch it. If you want to watch it again next weekend, you pay another $20. Rinse and repeat.

It's not included For Free! on a streaming service like Turning Red, or like Lightyear will be by next weekend.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah, but you have to pay $20 to watch it on Amazon, and then you get 48 hours to watch it. If you want to watch it again next weekend, you pay another $20. Rinse and repeat.

It's not included For Free! on a streaming service like Turning Red, or like Lightyear will be by next weekend.

Yes I’m aware it’s for digital purchase. But that is not added into the box office totals. So you have to start thinking differently just like the studios are about the Box office, it’s a new model my friend you have to get used to it.

 

[TP2000]

Yes I’m aware it’s for digital purchase. But that is not added into the box office totals.

What does Universal do with that 20 bucks you pay them to watch their movie for 48 hours? Does Universal's accounting team give your 20 bucks to charity? Do they turn it into rolls of quarters and throw it into the flume at Disneyland's It's A Small World to be handed over to UNICEF?

Or does Universal take your 20 dollars and donate it to the Epstein Home in Montebanc for refugee Jewish children? (hilariously funny Auntie Mame reference, but no need for anyone to pretend they caught it).

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