Surprise! Red Tier Now Begins Sunday; Downtown Disney Restaurants???

[October82]

Ah yes, the blame the evil Feds - did the Feds shut down the restaurants and theme parks in Florida? Are Dollywood and Silver Dollar City shut down by the Feds and all of the restaurants in those states? Must have missed that Federal order.

The Federal government has failed to provide economic stability so that businesses won't be harmed by the pandemic. These businesses are shut down because of a natural disaster that they could not have anticipated, and in our system, it is the federal government's responsibility to provide economic stimulus to make sure that businesses survive, workers remain employed, and the economy can remain stable and return to growth when disasters are over. The Federal government has failed to act repeatedly, and that assessment is not a political one. If you want to blame one side of the aisle over the other, that's up to you. But the fact of the failure isn't debatable.

I will absolutely blame the health departments and the city, county, and state politicians who enable their random, arbitrary guidelines. "They're good people just trying to stop a virus" does not give them license to destroy law abiding business owners' lives based on "abundance of caution" and "better than nothing".

No one is destroying the lives of law abiding business owners. We are trying to control the spread of a virus and save lives.

But I get the sense from your phrasing here that you're not interested in a serious discussion of the costs and benefits. You're upset, as we all should be. No one is happy about the situation, no one wants this. But the virus is the problem that your local elected officials are trying to combat. So if there's anything to be angry at, it's the virus.

If you're concerned that the government isn't supporting businesses and caring for business owners and employees, again, in our system, that's up to the federal government. Your local elected officials can't solve those problems. They don't have the power to do so in our system of government.

It's fine to complain on the internet, but if you're serious about understanding what is happening and arguing that we should do something else, it would pay to think about how we can keep hospitals from being overwhelmed in the presence of a respiratory virus with a high transmission coefficient. The strategy that I would advocate for is adequate public health measures with large amounts of federal government support. The former is what your local officials control while the latter is what they don't.

(Oh, and still waiting on your evidence that the decision to close all of the playgrounds on Sunday and then reopen all of them on Wed was based on "data and science" as you proclaimed)

It seems from your wording here that you misunderstood the claim. Playgrounds were closed to reduce the number of multi-household groups congregating. There's nothing unscientific or debate-able about the mechanism of transmission or the fact that keeping people from congregating will cause fewer cases. Policy makers have to assess the costs and benefits and that assessment can change with more information. That's all that happened. It's not evidence of incompetence nor is it evidence the people are acting arbitrarily or without evidence. Quite the opposite. Changing your mind is what you hope for in evidence based policy.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Most businesses fail. So how many of these business closures actually count because they failed due to COVID and not just during COVID?

 

[TP2000]

Most businesses fail. So how many of these business closures actually count because they failed due to COVID and not just during COVID?

That's not an invalid question. But you could also ask the following...

Most old humans die. So how many of these old humans dying actually count because they died due to Covid and not just during Covid?

Just ribbing of course! I'm in a Friday kind of mood, as I'm headed up to Solvang this weekend for a big dose of Scandinavian Christmas cheer! (The entire city is refusing to close outdoor dining and shopping) Have a great weekend, gang!

 

[SuddenStorm]

Most businesses fail. So how many of these business closures actually count because they failed due to COVID and not just during COVID?

I'd assume there's a difference between a business failing due to the free market and an inability to adapt to consumer demand, and a business failing due to being arbitrarily and forcibly closed by the government.

Edit- It's kinda the difference between someone dying because they were shot vs someone dying because they're 100 years old and their body is failing.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Just walked by a Buffalo Wild Wings in a nearby city. Full service on the patio.

And interesting to note that in LA County, based on the over 700,000 tested, that Construction Workers, by far, is the largest group that tested positive.

High Frequency and Prevalence of Community-Based Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection | medRxiv

Guess creating more taxes and having powerful Unions helps.

 

[October82]

Fair enough - then what was the “more information” that was discovered that changed the decision of requiring playgrounds to be closed on Sunday and then reopened 72 hours later?

Clearly the indisputable inherent danger of the playgrounds you describe didn’t change in those 72 hours and the infection numbers only increased over those days.

So what data, science, or “more information” did they discover to decide to reopen the playgrounds? Serious question.

So one place where I think criticism of California and LA County's public health officials is on point is when it comes to transparency. In addition to public statements, I would like to see more detailed documentation so we can understand this topic better.

What the public statements have said is that they re-evaluated the cost/benefit analysis in response to concerns about how the rule disproportionately impacts children, especially in low income areas. It seems that they were uncertain about whether to move forward with that particular rule initially, and after elected officials from those communities asked them to revisit the decision, they re-evaluated and changed the rule. If you look at the public statements, they're pretty clear that they still believe playgrounds contribute to the spread of the virus. It was a policy change based on new information about the policy's impacts rather than a change in the underlying science.

I think there's a lot of misunderstandings about what it means for policy to be science based. What science can tell you are things like "the reproductive number for covid is above 2," or that the "majority of the new cases are connected to people congregating without wearing masks". What the science can not tell you are things like, "policy x, y, and z" will reduce the spread by exactly "some percentage". So policymakers have to identify, based on the science, all of the things that can contribute to spread, and then look at the costs and benefits, neither of which is known with certainty. If you're someone who does this, your job is to maximize the benefit and minimize the cost. And if you do this professionally, you will be able to put math to all of this (is that science? is economics a science?), which would really help us to understand why some policies are being made and others aren't. Put more simply, you first prioritize the risks, then evaluate each of them, then determine how to mitigate them. Science can only inform each of those steps.

Regardless, with so much uncertainty (even if you look in recently published papers, there's a lot uncertainty around "settled topics" like surface transmission), you won't perfectly maximize the benefits and minimize the cost every time. So people who are particularly hurt by one or another policy will ask you to change it. Sometimes that is business owners saying we need to allow outdoor dining, other times it is people saying playgrounds should be open. And depending on how certain or uncertain you are about what the costs and benefits are, you'll make differing decisions about which policies we don't need and which one's we do when you reevaluate them. Around topics like outdoor dining, those questions are going to be constantly re-evaluated because they potentially have a lot of benefits and definitely have a lot of costs.

The danger is that when you do change your understanding of the tradeoffs, it now looks like you made policy arbitrarily or were inconsistent. The point is that "new information" in this context can mean that new scientific papers were published which might change our understanding of the disease (maybe it spreads further than six feet in the air) or that might be a new piece of information about the cost of some public health regulation that makes you change your mind.

That might have been a bit too long and overly pedantic but I think process matters here. It's really important to understand that while we don't know everything and some "judgement" (for lack of a better word) is required, that doesn't make the public health rules arbitrary.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Pandemic hypocrisy is creating a societal rift this holiday season – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)

>>“Do as I say, not as I do.” So the aphorism goes.

Americans want to see family this holiday season. It’s the reason those who can afford it are braving hours-long COVID-19 testing lines in major cities—to get the green-light for interstate travel so they can hug Mom and Dad for the first time in eight months.

Democratic leaders, however, aren’t playing by their own rules. Instead of following the guidelines they’ve laid out for the masses trying their best to comply with onerous state-by-state regulations, liberal politicians are signaling to the world that they’re above it all. In California, Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors member and Democrat Sheila Kuehl said leaving restaurants open was “a bit of magical thinking” and voted to close restaurants only to be spotted dining out a few hours later.<<

>>Californians and Americans in general this holiday season should take their health and safety into their own hands, measuring the risk and reward according to their own personal situation instead of handing that power to inept bureaucrats.

As physician Kevin Pham says, “There are many ways to avoid contagion, such as testing and isolating, having outdoor events where possible, gathering in smaller groups, and connecting virtually to protect elders from exposure, or any number of other creative measures. This should be up to you and your family, not the government.”<<

>>Research shows states with more economic freedom before the pandemic lost fewer jobs and are on a quicker path to recovery. Governors should encourage businesses to open instead of imposing more ineffective lockdowns.


Entrepreneurial small business owners are more than capable of taking reasonable precautions fitting their circumstances. Politicians should be working in conjunction with business leaders to foster economic revival, instead of threatening to arrest non-compliant individuals.

Politicians who tell us to hide inside and cancel Christmas should get coal in their stockings. We need leaders who are working hard and fighting for the freedom that built America.<<

More at the link.

 

[Darkbeer1]

California's health order falling on many deaf ears (apnews.com)

>>Paz Jackson, a registered nurse, said she and her husband took the half-hour drive from Los Angeles to Manhattan Beach to eat lunch outdoors — something they can no longer do near their home.

She said she felt safe grabbing a burger and taking it to the public patio as there were few people and no crowds. But she said she understands why Newsom issued the order, especially in larger cities where the virus is surging.

“We love to eat outside,” she said. “A lot of people would like to go out and not be staying at home all the time. It’s an individual decision.”<<

 

[Darkbeer1]

Found the reason why St. Vincent wasn't reopened as a Surge Hospital.

Blame Disney/ABC, LA Times and others....

Los Angeles Surge Hospital That Treated COVID-19 Patients Now Appears To Be Site Of Full-Scale Hollywood Production | CauseACTION Clarion

>>As California officials warn about an impending wave of COVID-19 infections, a shuttered hospital in Los Angeles that briefly reopened in the spring to help treat an expected surge of cases now appears to be the site of a major Hollywood production.

The parking lot of the former St. Vincent Medical Center is currently filled with trailers typically used by movie studios and television production companies for on-location shoots. A truck from a company called Cinelease, which describes itself as “a market leader in lighting and grip equipment rentals,” sits nearby. Tents cover outdoor dining areas and a line of cooks, who are busy preparing food.

There’s filming happening at St. Vincent Hospital AKA the abandoned hospital that was reopened for 39 days as Los Angeles Surge Hospital. Dr. Anand Annamalai called LASH “a clinically led socialistic system.”
Pictures via @BlueShell_Party pic.twitter.com/SEOPR72go4
— Brittani Nichols (@BisHilarious) December 7, 2020

What could be interpreted as a makeshift crew parking sign pointing to an indoor lot reads “TRIAGE,” a common word around hospitals but also the name of a pilot greenlit by ABC executives earlier this year.

After a shortage of intensive-care unit beds triggered a regional stay-at-home order throughout Southern California and beyond, public health authorities have been warning of a wave of new infections from Thanksgiving gatherings that is about to hit.

Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, a billionaire who owns The Los Angeles Times, purchased the former 366-bed hospital out of bankruptcy earlier this year for $135 million. After a federal judge approved the sale on April 10, The Times reported that its owner “plans to create a coronavirus research facility on the campus” that would “attract doctors and experts on the virus” and “relieve pressure on other hospitals.”

The bankruptcy judge conveyed a sense of urgency for the parties to complete the transaction. Judge Ernest M. Robles wrote, “there is a risk that the purchaser will walk away if the sale does not close promptly, since the purpose of the sale – establishing a research center to address the COVID-19 pandemic – would be defeated absent a prompt closing.”

As the L.A. Times reported at the time:

Before Soon-Shiong purchased the hospital, the state announced in March that it would lease the empty hospital. The state is paying $16 million for a six-month lease, an agreement that’s now been transferred to Soon-Shiong.
The state is also paying healthcare companies Kaiser Permanente and Dignity Health a monthly management fee of $500,000 each to oversee the hospital.
The state will also pay for equipment and hospital staff. The total cost will depend on the number and acuity of patients treated, said Rodger Butler, a spokesman with the California Health and Human Services Agency.

The temporary state-funded hospital opened on the St. Vincent complex on April 13, three days after the bankruptcy judge approved the property’s sale to Soon-Shiong.

State officials said the pop-up facility was needed to secure additional beds to treat COVID-19 patients. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom had said California would need 50,000 more beds to respond to what was to come. Called the Los Angeles Surge Hospital (LASH), it only admitted coronavirus patients who met certain criteria.

So @GavinNewsom & @MayorOfLA is that Mercy medical ship coming back? What about that backup hospital in the L.A.? St Vincent Medical Center? #COVID19
— Mia Alanis (@MiaAlanisPR) December 9, 2020

However, state officials closed LASH after just 39 days in operation and only treating 64 patients. Nine of them died.

Area hospitals were not overwhelmed, and the expected wave of sick people did not materialize. LASH never had more than 25 patients at a time and only grew to 63 beds, far short of its projected capacity of 266.

As The Times reported, “In time, the initial COVID-19 surge in Los Angeles County became more manageable,” and:

Operating costs for the surge hospital through May 31, according to the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, were $21.5 million which covered medical treatments and physician salaries, as well as food services and the lease on the property.

Dr. Jamie Taylor, who worked at St. Vincent and LASH, told The Times in July that she did not expect another surge hospital to open on the property.

The lease with the state reportedly expired on September 30.

The L.A. City Council voted unanimously in October to initiate discussions with Dr. Soon-Shiong or his foundation about establishing a partnership to provide medical and mental health services to homeless people, older adults, and low-income residents in need of acute care.

Last month, it was announced that Dr. Soon-Shiong hired a brokerage firm to lease and reposition the 674,000 square-foot, five-building medical complex.

@thelapod @safrazie @hayesdavenport @awalkerinLA if you’re wondering why the city isn’t setting up St Vincent’s Hospital for the covid increase, it’s cus (once again) city is prioritizing filming.
Supposedly a pilot. Def shooting inside(saw crew exiting entrance) pic.twitter.com/Hx5cKg8eGs
— Blue Shell Party (@BlueShell_Party) December 7, 2020

“The St. Vincent’s Medical Center campus is one of Los Angeles’ premier properties that will help boost the region’s economy and strengthen its position in the medical and life science industries,” said JLL Executive Vice President Chris Isola. “The 7.5-acre campus presents a rare opportunity for a company to position itself as a market leader and attract highly skilled professionals in a competitive workforce environment.”<<

 

[TP2000]

Just walked by a Buffalo Wild Wings in a nearby city. Full service on the patio.

I saw the exact same thing at my local shopping center a hew hours ago! The Buffalo Wild Wings, a Chipotle, and a local pizza joint all had their outdoor patios going full tilt tonight. If it scares you to eat outdoors, don't go.

This morning I texted my barber for an appointment next week, and his shop has gone into Speakeasy Mode where they put black plastic over the front windows and lock the front door. But then you go in the back door instead. The young barbers that staff my barbershop seem to like it this way, because they can drink beer and offer the customers shots of Jack Daniels, and it just makes the whole thing more fun. They're getting bigger tips in Speakeasy Mode also, so I don't blame them one bit. It's hysterical!

But if you are fine with the quick risk analysis based on your own circumstances, which is exactly what Newsom did when he decided it was fine for him to dine indoors at The French Laundry with 10 other people not in his household, then you should be able to eat outdoors, or get a manicure, or get your hairdo did like Aunt Nancy.

The only sad part is that the big corporate players, like Downtown Disney, are stuck having to play by the rules while all their smaller or locally owned competition in OC ignores Newsom's latest orders. Downtown Disney is now a ghost town, while Irvine Spectrum and South Coast Plaza and your local Buffalo Wild Wings or Habit Burger are booming, often in open defiance of Sacramento.

You have to weight the risks and the benefits. God knows I certainly have been doing that for many years now.

 

[drizgirl]

Found the reason why St. Vincent wasn't reopened as a Surge Hospital.

Blame Disney/ABC, LA Times and others....

Los Angeles Surge Hospital That Treated COVID-19 Patients Now Appears To Be Site Of Full-Scale Hollywood Production | CauseACTION Clarion

>>As California officials warn about an impending wave of COVID-19 infections, a shuttered hospital in Los Angeles that briefly reopened in the spring to help treat an expected surge of cases now appears to be the site of a major Hollywood production.

The parking lot of the former St. Vincent Medical Center is currently filled with trailers typically used by movie studios and television production companies for on-location shoots. A truck from a company called Cinelease, which describes itself as “a market leader in lighting and grip equipment rentals,” sits nearby. Tents cover outdoor dining areas and a line of cooks, who are busy preparing food.


What could be interpreted as a makeshift crew parking sign pointing to an indoor lot reads “TRIAGE,” a common word around hospitals but also the name of a pilot greenlit by ABC executives earlier this year.

After a shortage of intensive-care unit beds triggered a regional stay-at-home order throughout Southern California and beyond, public health authorities have been warning of a wave of new infections from Thanksgiving gatherings that is about to hit.

Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, a billionaire who owns The Los Angeles Times, purchased the former 366-bed hospital out of bankruptcy earlier this year for $135 million. After a federal judge approved the sale on April 10, The Times reported that its owner “plans to create a coronavirus research facility on the campus” that would “attract doctors and experts on the virus” and “relieve pressure on other hospitals.”

The bankruptcy judge conveyed a sense of urgency for the parties to complete the transaction. Judge Ernest M. Robles wrote, “there is a risk that the purchaser will walk away if the sale does not close promptly, since the purpose of the sale – establishing a research center to address the COVID-19 pandemic – would be defeated absent a prompt closing.”

As the L.A. Times reported at the time:


The temporary state-funded hospital opened on the St. Vincent complex on April 13, three days after the bankruptcy judge approved the property’s sale to Soon-Shiong.

State officials said the pop-up facility was needed to secure additional beds to treat COVID-19 patients. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom had said California would need 50,000 more beds to respond to what was to come. Called the Los Angeles Surge Hospital (LASH), it only admitted coronavirus patients who met certain criteria.


However, state officials closed LASH after just 39 days in operation and only treating 64 patients. Nine of them died.

Area hospitals were not overwhelmed, and the expected wave of sick people did not materialize. LASH never had more than 25 patients at a time and only grew to 63 beds, far short of its projected capacity of 266.

As The Times reported, “In time, the initial COVID-19 surge in Los Angeles County became more manageable,” and:


Dr. Jamie Taylor, who worked at St. Vincent and LASH, told The Times in July that she did not expect another surge hospital to open on the property.

The lease with the state reportedly expired on September 30.

The L.A. City Council voted unanimously in October to initiate discussions with Dr. Soon-Shiong or his foundation about establishing a partnership to provide medical and mental health services to homeless people, older adults, and low-income residents in need of acute care.

Last month, it was announced that Dr. Soon-Shiong hired a brokerage firm to lease and reposition the 674,000 square-foot, five-building medical complex.


“The St. Vincent’s Medical Center campus is one of Los Angeles’ premier properties that will help boost the region’s economy and strengthen its position in the medical and life science industries,” said JLL Executive Vice President Chris Isola. “The 7.5-acre campus presents a rare opportunity for a company to position itself as a market leader and attract highly skilled professionals in a competitive workforce environment.”<<

You know, honestly, if they wrote this into a script for a movie about a pandemic, I wouldn't believe it.

 

[drizgirl]

Oooooooooh, so it’s based on data, science, AND apparently arbitrary political pressure put on by elected officials.

Sure seems like it.

 

[Stevek]

That's not an invalid question. But you could also ask the following...

Most old humans die. So how many of these old humans dying actually count because they died due to Covid and not just during Covid?

Just ribbing of course! I'm in a Friday kind of mood, as I'm headed up to Solvang this weekend for a big dose of Scandinavian Christmas cheer! (The entire city is refusing to close outdoor dining and shopping) Have a great weekend, gang!

High Roller Tiki Bar. Owned by a former Disneyland CM. Right in the middle of town.

 

[el_super]

OC ICU capacity down to 2.3%. County doctors begging people to take these directives seriously.

Dr. Clayton Chau, who was foisted into the position of County Health Director in a sad attempt to skirt a mask order, is now also begging people. “I’m begging you. Do not gather. Do not mix households. The transmission is really high in the community right now.”

 

[drizgirl]

OC ICU capacity down to 2.3%. County doctors begging people to take these directives seriously.

Dr. Clayton Chau, who was foisted into the position of County Health Director in a sad attempt to skirt a mask order, is now also begging people. “I’m begging you. Do not gather. Do not mix households. The transmission is really high in the community right now.”

I doubt that what's happening now is within their control within a mostly free society. I really think it's coming from irresponsible people gathering in homes, and with Christmas coming, it's just going to be ugly. I honestly think that the heavy handed measures have made things worse instead of better.

 

[Sonconato]

I was waiting in line at SeaWorld for the bathroom and the woman in front of me was saying that she had been to Disney World for a few days and Busch Gardens. I heard her say she was from California and couldn't understand why Disney California was closed. All the theme parks in Florida she had been to were very strict on the mask policy but she was just so happy to be at the theme parks. I was happy for her.

 

[el_super]

I doubt that what's happening now is within their control within a mostly free society. I really think it's coming from irresponsible people gathering in homes, and with Christmas coming, it's just going to be ugly. I honestly think that the heavy handed measures have made things worse instead of better.

I disagree. Having things like outdoor dining and malls open, only promote a sense of normalcy and safety when there clearly is none. If these were closed, people may be willing to understand the severity of the situation and be willing to make the sacrifice of not meeting friends and family.

 

[drizgirl]

I disagree. Having things like outdoor dining and malls open, only promote a sense of normalcy and safety when there clearly is none. If these were closed, people may be willing to understand the severity of the situation and be willing to make the sacrifice of not meeting friends and family.

Not shockingly, I disagree. I think being out doing normal things in a safe way reminds people of the distancing and wearing masks. With all these things closed, people are hanging out in private residences without either masks or distancing. They're living in a pre-pandemic fashion and likely mixing with others doing the same. I think it's causing them to mingle with friends and family more rather than less.

 

[el_super]

Not shockingly, I disagree. I think being out doing normal things in a safe way reminds people of the distancing and wearing masks. With all these things closed, people are hanging out in private residences without either masks or distancing. They're living in a pre-pandemic fashion and likely mixing with others doing the same. I think it's causing them to mingle with friends and family more rather than less.

But the numbers we are seeing hitting the hospitals now, are the people who were meeting friends and family, eating out at restaurants and shopping as a group, prior to the introduction of the newest restrictions. Which means, while all those things were open, hospitalizations got worse.

As time goes on, the the outcome of the current restrictions become known, we should see hospitalizations decrease. If that doesn't happen though, more things will need to close.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Wow California ranks way at the bottom for number of beds per person by state. Only Washington and Oregon are worse. Why am I not surprised. See here