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Surprise! Red Tier Now Begins Sunday; Downtown Disney Restaurants???

George Lucas on a Bench

Well-Known Member
Don't worry, they're all at Irvine Spectrum and South Coast Plaza! I just chatted with a friend who said she circled for 20 minutes earlier tonight trying to find a parking spot at South Coast Plaza.

And because of Covid, South Coast Plaza has stopped offering their valet parking, which sends a lot of shoppers out into the nether reaches of surface parking lots to fend for themselves! For OC, that's like going into a darkened haunted house on Halloween. Scary!

I tried three consecutive nights to grocery shop after work and the parking lot looked like one of those huge auto dealerships. Stay at Home means Go Shopping.
 

Stevek

Well-Known Member
I tried three consecutive nights to grocery shop after work and the parking lot looked like one of those huge auto dealerships. Stay at Home means Go Shopping.
Must be very different depending on where you live. I've yet to see a line for anything out here in Corona...have not yet checked Costco though but I'd avoid that and Walmart like the plague anyways.
 

denyuntilcaught

Well-Known Member
Don't worry, they're all at Irvine Spectrum and South Coast Plaza! I just chatted with a friend who said she circled for 20 minutes earlier tonight trying to find a parking spot at South Coast Plaza.

And because of Covid, South Coast Plaza has stopped offering their valet parking, which sends a lot of shoppers out into the nether reaches of surface parking lots to fend for themselves! For OC, that's like going into a darkened haunted house on Halloween. Scary!

I was going to say - the empty DTD isn't proof that closing restaurants is causing people to stay home. Quite the opposite - it's pushing people to more crowded places like the Spectrum and SCP.

People are just done.
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
The "Adjusted" versus "Unadjusted" metric is brand new today. I have no idea what that means. Does anyone know?

The adjusted ICU capacity takes into account the number of COVID patients in the ICU, and the additional stress they are putting on the system. The short version is: COVID patients require additional staffing and care which overall is reducing capacity.

I was going to say - the empty DTD isn't proof that closing restaurants is causing people to stay home. Quite the opposite - it's pushing people to more crowded places like the Spectrum and SCP.

People are just done.

Keeping the stores open at this point, does seem silly. Or at the very least, the malls needs to be closed.
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
Disneyland resort will close on Christmas Day for first time in decades – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)

>>The annual tradition of trying to figure out when Disneyland will close its gate because of holiday crowds between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day won’t take place in 2020 because of the global coronavirus pandemic.

Downtown Disney and the partially reopened Disney California Adventure will be closed on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, along with the gates of Disneyland and the doors of Disney’s three Anaheim hotels.<<
 

Stevek

Well-Known Member
Disneyland resort will close on Christmas Day for first time in decades – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)

>>The annual tradition of trying to figure out when Disneyland will close its gate because of holiday crowds between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day won’t take place in 2020 because of the global coronavirus pandemic.

Downtown Disney and the partially reopened Disney California Adventure will be closed on Christmas Day, Dec. 25, along with the gates of Disneyland and the doors of Disney’s three Anaheim hotels.<<
Good! Let these workers be home with their families.
 

Bob Harlem

Well-Known Member
I was going to say - the empty DTD isn't proof that closing restaurants is causing people to stay home. Quite the opposite - it's pushing people to more crowded places like the Spectrum and SCP.

People are just done.

Law of unintended consequences applies to these "lockdowns" people wind up going where they can, and congregating rather than spreading out in the areas that would actually be safer, such as Disneyland with WDW covid rules. Add it 2 weeks around Christmas and I bet California winds up a magnitude worse off than Florida after that. Outdoor things should be pushed over indoor things, but the current CA rules are so out of whack and inconsistent it'll wind up making things worse around Christmas.

Tinhorn Flats, a restaurant in Burbank is one of the growing list of restaurants defying the outdoor dining ban and just opening up.
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Good! Let these workers be home with their families.

Agreed. And they should close again on New Year's Day, after closing by 8pm on New Year's Eve.

There's no point in trying to do anything different.

What few CM's that are left will probably love this! Merry Christmas! And a happy New Year! 🎄🥳
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I was going to say - the empty DTD isn't proof that closing restaurants is causing people to stay home. Quite the opposite - it's pushing people to more crowded places like the Spectrum and SCP.

People are just done.

Yes. This week's legal case showed even a highly-paid team of lawyers and bureaucrats from the biggest and wealthiest county in the nation can't come up with any Science & Data why Outdoor Dining should be closed.

And all this is doing is pushing young people, and the not so young, into indoor private homes for socializing.

It's an obvious example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.
 

October82

Well-Known Member
Law of unintended consequences applies to these "lockdowns" people wind up going where they can, and congregating rather than spreading out in the areas that would actually be safer, such as Disneyland with WDW covid rules. Add it 2 weeks around Christmas and I bet California winds up a magnitude worse off than Florida after that. Outdoor things should be pushed over indoor things, but the current CA rules are so out of whack and inconsistent it'll wind up making things worse around Christmas.

Tinhorn Flats, a restaurant in Burbank is one of the growing list of restaurants defying the outdoor dining ban and just opening up.

The danger with dining is that one does not wear a mask while eating. If the current public health orders redirect people from congregating at restaurants to congregating in malls while wearing masks, that is probably a net benefit.

Is it enough to keep hospitals overloaded and stop people from dying? I don't think so. But it certainly helps when compared to doing nothing. It's a really sad commentary that almost a year into this, we haven't figured out the basic principles of governance that would allow people to do what is needed to get the pandemic under control.
 

October82

Well-Known Member
Nothing makes a small business owner who has lost everything feel better than to hear he's closed because "it's better than nothing", the evil twin sister of the meaningless "Abundance of Caution".

Sorry, Mr. Small Businessman, we have no idea if closing you down actually does anything, but hey, it's better than nothing!

Let me rephrase - it's better than people dying without need. We would save more lives if people didn't go out shopping, but if it's between them shopping and them dining, shopping is better. Let's hope those regulations are effective because the alternative is not a thriving economy, it's literally people dying of a disease whose spread is preventable.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have had a choice as to whether to support small businesses or not. The federal government has failed to do so. If you need to blame someone, blame those in Washington DC who have failed to lead. But don't blame public health regulations and the people who make them for trying to save lives and get us all back to some sense of normalcy as soon as possible. They're not the problem here.
 
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October82

Well-Known Member
Ah yes, the blame the evil Feds - did the Feds shut down the restaurants and theme parks in Florida? Are Dollywood and Silver Dollar City shut down by the Feds and all of the restaurants in those states? Must have missed that Federal order.

The Federal government has failed to provide economic stability so that businesses won't be harmed by the pandemic. These businesses are shut down because of a natural disaster that they could not have anticipated, and in our system, it is the federal government's responsibility to provide economic stimulus to make sure that businesses survive, workers remain employed, and the economy can remain stable and return to growth when disasters are over. The Federal government has failed to act repeatedly, and that assessment is not a political one. If you want to blame one side of the aisle over the other, that's up to you. But the fact of the failure isn't debatable.

I will absolutely blame the health departments and the city, county, and state politicians who enable their random, arbitrary guidelines. "They're good people just trying to stop a virus" does not give them license to destroy law abiding business owners' lives based on "abundance of caution" and "better than nothing".

No one is destroying the lives of law abiding business owners. We are trying to control the spread of a virus and save lives.

But I get the sense from your phrasing here that you're not interested in a serious discussion of the costs and benefits. You're upset, as we all should be. No one is happy about the situation, no one wants this. But the virus is the problem that your local elected officials are trying to combat. So if there's anything to be angry at, it's the virus.

If you're concerned that the government isn't supporting businesses and caring for business owners and employees, again, in our system, that's up to the federal government. Your local elected officials can't solve those problems. They don't have the power to do so in our system of government.

It's fine to complain on the internet, but if you're serious about understanding what is happening and arguing that we should do something else, it would pay to think about how we can keep hospitals from being overwhelmed in the presence of a respiratory virus with a high transmission coefficient. The strategy that I would advocate for is adequate public health measures with large amounts of federal government support. The former is what your local officials control while the latter is what they don't.

(Oh, and still waiting on your evidence that the decision to close all of the playgrounds on Sunday and then reopen all of them on Wed was based on "data and science" as you proclaimed)

It seems from your wording here that you misunderstood the claim. Playgrounds were closed to reduce the number of multi-household groups congregating. There's nothing unscientific or debate-able about the mechanism of transmission or the fact that keeping people from congregating will cause fewer cases. Policy makers have to assess the costs and benefits and that assessment can change with more information. That's all that happened. It's not evidence of incompetence nor is it evidence the people are acting arbitrarily or without evidence. Quite the opposite. Changing your mind is what you hope for in evidence based policy.
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Most businesses fail. So how many of these business closures actually count because they failed due to COVID and not just during COVID?

That's not an invalid question. But you could also ask the following...

Most old humans die. So how many of these old humans dying actually count because they died due to Covid and not just during Covid?

Just ribbing of course! I'm in a Friday kind of mood, as I'm headed up to Solvang this weekend for a big dose of Scandinavian Christmas cheer! (The entire city is refusing to close outdoor dining and shopping) Have a great weekend, gang! 🎅
 

SuddenStorm

Well-Known Member
Most businesses fail. So how many of these business closures actually count because they failed due to COVID and not just during COVID?

I'd assume there's a difference between a business failing due to the free market and an inability to adapt to consumer demand, and a business failing due to being arbitrarily and forcibly closed by the government.

Edit- It's kinda the difference between someone dying because they were shot vs someone dying because they're 100 years old and their body is failing.
 
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Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
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October82

Well-Known Member
Fair enough - then what was the “more information” that was discovered that changed the decision of requiring playgrounds to be closed on Sunday and then reopened 72 hours later?

Clearly the indisputable inherent danger of the playgrounds you describe didn’t change in those 72 hours and the infection numbers only increased over those days.

So what data, science, or “more information” did they discover to decide to reopen the playgrounds? Serious question.

So one place where I think criticism of California and LA County's public health officials is on point is when it comes to transparency. In addition to public statements, I would like to see more detailed documentation so we can understand this topic better.

What the public statements have said is that they re-evaluated the cost/benefit analysis in response to concerns about how the rule disproportionately impacts children, especially in low income areas. It seems that they were uncertain about whether to move forward with that particular rule initially, and after elected officials from those communities asked them to revisit the decision, they re-evaluated and changed the rule. If you look at the public statements, they're pretty clear that they still believe playgrounds contribute to the spread of the virus. It was a policy change based on new information about the policy's impacts rather than a change in the underlying science.

I think there's a lot of misunderstandings about what it means for policy to be science based. What science can tell you are things like "the reproductive number for covid is above 2," or that the "majority of the new cases are connected to people congregating without wearing masks". What the science can not tell you are things like, "policy x, y, and z" will reduce the spread by exactly "some percentage". So policymakers have to identify, based on the science, all of the things that can contribute to spread, and then look at the costs and benefits, neither of which is known with certainty. If you're someone who does this, your job is to maximize the benefit and minimize the cost. And if you do this professionally, you will be able to put math to all of this (is that science? is economics a science?), which would really help us to understand why some policies are being made and others aren't. Put more simply, you first prioritize the risks, then evaluate each of them, then determine how to mitigate them. Science can only inform each of those steps.

Regardless, with so much uncertainty (even if you look in recently published papers, there's a lot uncertainty around "settled topics" like surface transmission), you won't perfectly maximize the benefits and minimize the cost every time. So people who are particularly hurt by one or another policy will ask you to change it. Sometimes that is business owners saying we need to allow outdoor dining, other times it is people saying playgrounds should be open. And depending on how certain or uncertain you are about what the costs and benefits are, you'll make differing decisions about which policies we don't need and which one's we do when you reevaluate them. Around topics like outdoor dining, those questions are going to be constantly re-evaluated because they potentially have a lot of benefits and definitely have a lot of costs.

The danger is that when you do change your understanding of the tradeoffs, it now looks like you made policy arbitrarily or were inconsistent. The point is that "new information" in this context can mean that new scientific papers were published which might change our understanding of the disease (maybe it spreads further than six feet in the air) or that might be a new piece of information about the cost of some public health regulation that makes you change your mind.

That might have been a bit too long and overly pedantic but I think process matters here. It's really important to understand that while we don't know everything and some "judgement" (for lack of a better word) is required, that doesn't make the public health rules arbitrary.
 
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Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
Pandemic hypocrisy is creating a societal rift this holiday season – Orange County Register (ocregister.com)

>>“Do as I say, not as I do.” So the aphorism goes.

Americans want to see family this holiday season. It’s the reason those who can afford it are braving hours-long COVID-19 testing lines in major cities—to get the green-light for interstate travel so they can hug Mom and Dad for the first time in eight months.

Democratic leaders, however, aren’t playing by their own rules. Instead of following the guidelines they’ve laid out for the masses trying their best to comply with onerous state-by-state regulations, liberal politicians are signaling to the world that they’re above it all. In California, Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors member and Democrat Sheila Kuehl said leaving restaurants open was “a bit of magical thinking” and voted to close restaurants only to be spotted dining out a few hours later.<<

>>Californians and Americans in general this holiday season should take their health and safety into their own hands, measuring the risk and reward according to their own personal situation instead of handing that power to inept bureaucrats.

As physician Kevin Pham says, “There are many ways to avoid contagion, such as testing and isolating, having outdoor events where possible, gathering in smaller groups, and connecting virtually to protect elders from exposure, or any number of other creative measures. This should be up to you and your family, not the government.”<<

>>Research shows states with more economic freedom before the pandemic lost fewer jobs and are on a quicker path to recovery. Governors should encourage businesses to open instead of imposing more ineffective lockdowns.


Entrepreneurial small business owners are more than capable of taking reasonable precautions fitting their circumstances. Politicians should be working in conjunction with business leaders to foster economic revival, instead of threatening to arrest non-compliant individuals.

Politicians who tell us to hide inside and cancel Christmas should get coal in their stockings. We need leaders who are working hard and fighting for the freedom that built America.<<

More at the link.
 

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