Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ep 8). SPOILERS. Plot points revealed and discussed.

[Sirwalterraleigh]

'Actual thoughts' -- what you mean like opinions that agree with you?

I've already addressed my 'actual thoughts' and the issue you're talking about, hence my joking response. And I already said that I would predict it ends with $1.4-1.6 Billion. I think at this point, that is a reasonable estimate.

What I find disingenuous is the continual use of the terms 'soft box office' , 'product softening' -- when there needs to be context that these terms are comparing the film to one of the most lucrative films in history. Those terms don't have the same weight when viewed with context. It's a bit of a leap (at this point) to be making any sorts of theories about how negatively this will impact Disney.

"Right on queue" is not an actual thought...in the context of disney forums it means: i got nothing so I'll laugh from an imagined perch.

And did you see the part about product shipments being 50% lower than rogue 1 and 60% lower than TFA? Can you follow that chain? What word would you call it?

The box office bears watching...that's my point. I may be wrong that it's gonna sputter...if so then more power to them...

But do you think disney likes the number tracking? First weekend, yes...last couple of days HELL NO.

 

[21stamps]

'Actual thoughts' -- what you mean like opinions that agree with you?

I've already addressed my 'actual thoughts' and the issue you're talking about, hence my joking response. And I already said that I would predict it ends with $1.4-1.6 Billion. I think at this point, that is a reasonable estimate.

What I find disingenuous is the continual use of the terms 'soft box office' , 'product softening' -- when there needs to be context that these terms are comparing the film to one of the most lucrative films in history. Those terms don't have the same weight when viewed with context. It's a bit of a leap (at this point) to be making any sorts of theories about how negatively this will impact Disney.

And I just want to reiterate., I don’t think that Disney projected TLJ to beat TFA, or even to match it. Because of this, I think the talk of potential long term damage is based on a comparison that most likely doesn’t even exist.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

'What I find disingenuous is the continual use of the terms 'soft box office' , 'product softening' -- when there needs to be context that these terms are comparing the film to one of the most lucrative films in history. Those terms don't have the same weight when viewed with context. It's a bit of a leap (at this point) to be making any sorts of theories about how negatively this will impact Disney.

People are making this out to be a Shanghai Disneyland type situation. That endeavor went way over budget and behind schedule.

Apparently a popular and profitable movie will have the same impact.

"The Last Jedi is raking in money. Where can we cut back as a result?"

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can picture those Disney accountants gathered around, seeing that TLJ made $450 million dollars in it's first weekend, with looks of utter despair on their faces.

I'm surprised they haven't cancelled Star Wars Land already, considering the utter lack of interest from the public in new Star Wars movies.

/sarcasm

By the way, TLJ earned 11% less than TFA did in it's opening weekend. A pessimist can focus on that being a decline, but an optimist will say that earning 11% less than the highest grossing film of all time did during it's first weekend, is a level of success most movies will never come close to.

We could say every movie is a disappointment if we compare it to TFA.

TLJ also earned 42% more than Rogue One did in it's opening weekend. Hardly the mark of a franchise in decline.

Just sit and watch...

I wanna see where this goes...

 

[bclane]

Yes...and I know that makes me the outlier...but I'll own it. She was physically incapable of performing the role in my opinion. That's actually on Lucas.

Ok well you have a right to that opinion. I on the other hand was thrilled to see her on the big screen again, playing her greatest character, and I think she did a fantastic job. She will always be my one true Princess, may she rest in peace.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

People are making this out to be a Shanghai Disneyland type situation. That endeavor went way over budget and behind schedule.

Apparently a popular and profitable movie will have the same impact.

"The Last Jedi is raking in money. Where can we cut back as a result?"

Let me put this out there so you can choose not to think about it:

Is there any possibility that you can put the disney Star Wars ark next to the Pirates franchise and draw a correlation?

...just food for non-thought...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ok well you have a right to that opinion. I on the other hand was thrilled to see her on the big screen again, playing her greatest character, and I think she did a fantastic job. She will always be my one true Princess, may she rest in peace.

To me that character is spunk, heroism, and wisdom...

...and she didn't pull it off at all. It was painful...the awful speech and the painful lack of movement that is obvious if you go watch it again. They had her holding a gun at the end and it was painful...check it for yourself.

And I will never be able to burn the creepy floating thing out of my brain...I was laughing hysterically as to not cry...

The sequels needed to be made earlier...unfortunately hindsight is what it is...

 

[spacemt354]

"Right on queue" is not an actual thought...in the context of disney forums it means: i got nothing so I'll laugh from an imagined perch.

I just did a whole post outlining how each sequel to a first film in a Star Wars trilogy always sees a reasonably steep decline. It's been a discussion topic of the last page or so. You not reading it isn't my problem.

And did you see the part about product shipments being 50% lower than rogue 1 and 60% lower than TFA? Can you follow that chain? What word would you call it?

The box office bears watching...that's my point. I may be wrong that it's gonna sputter...if so then more power to them...

But do you think disney likes the number tracking? First weekend, yes...last couple of days HELL NO.

I would call it...saturation.

I've actually never liked this new MCU style of output to the Star Wars films. I wish it kept the 3 year gap between episodic films, and at the 1.5 mark, if they insist, an anthology film. Having Star Wars each year inevitably will saturate the market of merchandise sales, especially when the film takes place right after Ep 7.

Action figures used to change with past Star Wars films since the character appearances altered with location and time, but the characters in Ep 8 were basically the same design. So if I was a kid, why spent money on toys that I got 2 years ago, still play with, and look similar, why would I bother getting the updated versions. The only successful new thing in merchandise is the Porgs.

As for Box Office, I already predicted a more than 60% drop off this weekend. With 3 films coming out, the Christmas holiday, and more -- I find it unlikely it will make it. A Monday and Tuesday haul of $41 Million for any other film would have executives doing cart-wheels down the halls. Because we are comparing it with a film in the Top 20 adjusted Domestic Box Office all-time, the greater successful context is missing.

 

[bclane]

On toy sales, I think that an interesting study would be to look at what happened to Star Wars Toy sales between the OT and the prequels (after the initial hype) and compare that to levels before and after TFA. I would expect things to level off a bit but at a much higher amount obviously than between the first two trilogies. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t toy sales down over all (not just Star Wars toys) due to what happened to Toys R Us?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I just did a whole post outlining how each sequel to a first film in a Star Wars trilogy always sees a reasonably steep decline. It's been a discussion topic of the last page or so. You not reading it isn't my problem.

I would call it...saturation.

I've actually never liked this new MCU style of output to the Star Wars films. I wish it kept the 3 year gap between episodic films, and at the 1.5 mark, if they insist, an anthology film. Having Star Wars each year inevitably will saturate the market of merchandise sales, especially when the film takes place right after Ep 7.

Action figures used to change with past Star Wars films since the character appearances altered with location and time, but the characters in Ep 8 were basically the same design. So if I was a kid, why spent money on toys that I got 2 years ago, still play with, and look similar, why would I bother getting the updated versions. The only successful new thing in merchandise is the Porgs.

As for Box Office, I already predicted a more than 60% drop off this weekend. With 3 films coming out, the Christmas holiday, and more -- I find it unlikely it will make it. A Monday and Tuesday haul of $41 Million for any other film would have executives doing cart-wheels down the halls. Because we are comparing it with a film in the Top 20 adjusted Domestic Box Office all-time, the greater successful context is missing.

What's your guess on what this movie should earn if the metacritc score holds true?

 

[spacemt354]

What's your guess on what this movie should earn if the metacritc score holds true?

My guess is in-between Jurassic World and Avengers: Age of Ultron, considering the opening weekend numbers and reception.

Jurassic World earned $652,270,625 Domestic, $1,019,442,583 Foreign. ..... $1,671,713,208 Total
Age of Ultron earned $459,005,868 Domestic, $946,397,826 Foreign ...... $1,405,403,694 Total

A high bar estimate of $1.7 Billion and a low bar estimate of $1.4 Billion. Imo, from that low bar, the closer you get rounding down to $1 Billion - the more likely there would be concern.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I thought Carrie Fisher was pretty good in the movie. Not spectacular, but I feel like she's more of a writer than an actor, really. I can't say I've seen her in much other than Star Wars.

A bad performance can take you out of a movie. That didn't happen for me with her performance.

Domhnall Gleeson as General Hux on the other hand, was embarrassing.

 

[21stamps]

On toy sales, I think that an interesting study would be to look at what happened to Star Wars Toy sales between the OT and the prequels (after the initial hype) and compare that to levels before and after TFA. I would expect things to level off a bit but at a much higher amount obviously than between the first two trilogies. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t toy sales down over all (not just Star Wars toys) due to what happened to Toys R Us?

I can only speak for myself and family and friends who I’ve spoken to about it. From the first TFA trailer there was a mad dash for all of the new toys, lightsaber, decor, costumes.
The past 2 years have had many SW presents under the tree, same with birthdays, and all “reward” trips to the store. Also in that time frame my kid’s bedroom and playroom are decked out in SW from wall art to bedding to a lightsaber nightlight and light switch covers.
He has all of the 3.75” character sets and poe’s x-wing fighter, another x-wing, Star fighters, etc.. he also has more than 2 dozen SW Lego sets running from small to large. He also has the BB8 droid, a programmable R2D2 robot, and a talking, moving, teaching Yoda.

His friends are similar and every bday party we go to we see SW presents given.

This year we don’t need any new characters..or decor..only Legos. I don’t think that has anything to do with the new movie., it’s just that he already has soooo much Star Wars stuff. I think some other parents have hit this same point as well..but I still see the SW aisles fairly depleted when at Target and Toys r Us.. so I do think there’s still a huge market who is buying.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

On toy sales, I think that an interesting study would be to look at what happened to Star Wars Toy sales between the OT and the prequels (after the initial hype) and compare that to levels before and after TFA. I would expect things to level off a bit but at a much higher amount obviously than between the first two trilogies. Somebody please correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t toy sales down over all (not just Star Wars toys) due to what happened to Toys R Us?

It's quite a possibility...that's why I keep saying it's worth watching. I wonder how many times I'm gonna say "it's worth watching..." till the defenders of rian johnsons masterpiece on the heels of the crown jewel of Abrams reboots realize that what I REALLY mean is its worth watching?

Anyway...the TRU thing is a tad herring. They are the only toy store left because they have been destroyed by the big 3...they'll be gone within 5 years anyway.

 

[Gomer]

I can only speak for myself and family and friends who I’ve spoken to about it. From the first TFA trailer there was a mad dash for all of the new toys, lightsaber, decor, costumes.
The past 2 years have had many SW presents under the tree, same with birthdays, and all “reward” trips to the store. Also in that time frame my kid’s bedroom and playroom are decked out in SW from wall art to bedding to a lightsaber nightlight and light switch covers.
He has all of the 3.75” character sets and poe’s x-wing fighter, another x-wing, Star fighters, etc.. he also has more than 2 dozen SW Lego sets running from small to large. He also has the BB8 droid, a programmable R2D2 robot, and a talking, moving, teaching Yoda.

His friends are similar and every bday party we go to we see SW presents given.

This year we don’t need any new characters..or decor..only Legos. I don’t think that has anything to do with the new movie., it’s just that he already has soooo much Star Wars stuff. I think some other parents have hit this same point as well..but I still see the SW aisles fairly depleted when at Target and Toys r Us.. so I do think there’s still a huge market who is buying.

This is very much a part of the merch equation.

Pre-TFA there was a built in demand for new SW merch. Since then a saturation has hit that there isn't such a rush to run out and grab everything anymore. You know there will be more 6 months to a year down the line, so you just buy a bit with each release.

Just from personal experience, I've purchased significantly less TLJ merch than TFA. And I like TLJ more as a movie.

Just like box office, pent up demand creates a special environment aroudn the first release. That is all built into the projections. So a significant step back is expected across all revenue sources. How much of a step back is what indicates whether Disney should worry. And unless someone here has seen Disney's projections, it is very difficult to see how much of a decrease they were expecting to occur naturally, vs what is driven by reception of the films.

Also, something to consider. Toy sales really have nothing to do with box office performance at this point in the release cycle. The movie has only been out a week. Most of those toys and gifts were purchased well before the movie came out as holiday gifts or as part of the Force Friday bonanza.

Merch sales YoY for 2018 will be more representative of TLJ's impact on toy sales.

 

[21stamps]

Also, I want to add one more thing on the toy note.. there wasn’t one big “hot toy” for SW like there has been the past two years. And I think a lot of people, including myself, learned from our past purchases. 2 years ago the Yoda was $199, R2D2 was $199, and I think BB8 was also $199... they were all such a headache to find.. I drove 118 miles round trip to get the stupid R2D2. I spent countless hours calling Toys R Us stores to see if Yoda was in stock.. ran out of work one day when I finally got a “Yes, we have 3 that just came in.”

Well, guess what? After all of that craziness in 2015, I saw the EXACT same toys on the shelf in 2016 “on sale” for $100-$150 less, each. If 3 of those come out consecutively again, will I buy all 3 again, at the same time? Probably not.

It goes with what I said earlier., nothing will duplicate the hype of TFA.

 

[bclane]

I can only speak for myself and family and friends who I’ve spoken to about it. From the first TFA trailer there was a mad dash for all of the new toys, lightsaber, decor, costumes.
The past 2 years have had many SW presents under the tree, same with birthdays, and all “reward” trips to the store. Also in that time frame my kid’s bedroom and playroom are decked out in SW from wall art to bedding to a lightsaber nightlight and light switch covers.
He has all of the 3.75” character sets and poe’s x-wing fighter, another x-wing, Star fighters, etc.. he also has more than 2 dozen SW Lego sets running from small to large. He also has the BB8 droid, a programmable R2D2 robot, and a talking, moving, teaching Yoda.

His friends are similar and every bday party we go to we see SW presents given.

This year we don’t need any new characters..or decor..only Legos. I don’t think that has anything to do with the new movie., it’s just that he already has soooo much Star Wars stuff. I think some other parents have hit this same point as well..but I still see the SW aisles fairly depleted when at Target and Toys r Us.. so I do think there’s still a huge market who is buying.

I agree. I know that we’ve bought less toys but more clothes related to Star Wars since TFA. Saturation is a real thing...but as things get old they need to be replaced and they will be replaced with more Star Wars stuff...at least in my house anyway.

 

[bclane]

It's quite a possibility...that's why I keep saying it's worth watching. I wonder how many times I'm gonna say "it's worth watching..." till the defenders of rian johnsons masterpiece on the heels of the crown jewel of Abrams reboots realize that what I REALLY mean is its worth watching?

Anyway...the TRU thing is a tad herring. They are the only toy store left because they have been destroyed by the big 3...they'll be gone within 5 years anyway.

I agree it’s worth watching.

 

[21stamps]

This is very much a part of the merch equation.

Pre-TFA there was a built in demand for new SW merch. Since then a saturation has hit that there isn't such a rush to run out and grab everything anymore. You know there will be more 6 months to a year down the line, so you just buy a bit with each release.

Just from personal experience, I've purchased significantly less TLJ merch than TFA. And I like TLJ more as a movie.

Just like box office, pent up demand creates a special environment aroudn the first release. That is all built into the projections. So a significant step back is expected across all revenue sources. How much of a step back is what indicates whether Disney should worry. And unless someone here has seen Disney's projections, it is very difficult to see how much of a decrease they were expecting to occur naturally, vs what is driven by reception of the films.

Also, something to consider. Toy sales really have nothing to do with box office performance at this point in the release cycle. The movie has only been out a week. Most of those toys and gifts were purchased well before the movie came out as holiday gifts or as part of the Force Friday bonanza.

Merch sales YoY for 2018 will be more representative of TLJ's impact on toy sales.

Agree. Really the only big item this year is a Lego set, stupidly expensive and not even released yet. Everything else is characters and a few vehicles that can be purchased at a later date.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lol...so disney has oversaturated the market causing far less demand for merchandise and that's not a softened market?

Hmmm...

But I do agree it's oversaturated...propel and sphero have been sending out desperation sale emails for weeks...

Totally valid excuse but it still ain't good for disney...