Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ep 8). SPOILERS. Plot points revealed and discussed.

[LukeS7]

Regardless of final production costs and box office gross necessary to break even, this movie is going to be highly profitable.

There's just this disgruntled portion of the fan base right now who need to channel their disappointment, and grasp at straws to support their view that the movie will fail due to being so terrible, and have an irrational *need* to find proof that everyone will eventually agree with them.

1. You can't bring up a point, have it refuted with evidence and then go "Regardless, I'm right anyways"
2. By this point, Force Awakens had made ~$360 million solely domestically, which is higher than the current worldwide total of Last Jedi


Yes it will turn a profit, but "highly profitable" I think is an overstatement in-comparison to other films in the franchise.

 

[fractal]

Regardless of final production costs and box office gross necessary to break even, this movie is going to be highly profitable.

There's just this disgruntled portion of the fan base right now who need to channel their disappointment, and grasp at straws to support their view that the movie will fail due to being so terrible, and have an irrational *need* to find proof that everyone will eventually agree with them.

In other words (see how I did that), I was wrong, but still right. Now for those that don't like the movie, go suck an egg because you're being irrational.

Pretty myopic don't you think?

 

[LukeS7]

As I said much earlier in this thread. There's a valid debate to be had over how much emphasis Star Wars puts on needing information outside of the films to understand internal logic. But it has been the model for these films since the days of the OT. Whether it was knowing the Emperor's name from his action figure, knowing why Biker Scouts suddenly appeared on Endor when they could have been really helpful on Hoth. Why can R2D2 fly in the PT but not the OT. (This was explained on a faux in universe news site, only for the superfans). Its all the same.

There's a certain level of acceptance that you need to either overlook those things, or accept that you need to look elsewhere for those explanations. But it is not new to this movie or the new era.

We pick and chose where it bothers us and where it doesn't.

I'd make an argument that the 3 you mentioned from the OT didn't have major impacts on plot, yet in FA/LJ the fact that the First Order's headquarters isn't Starkiller Base majorly impacts the plot and understanding of the story

 

[Gomer]

I'd make an argument that the 3 you mentioned from the OT didn't have major impacts on plot, yet in FA/LJ the fact that the First Order's headquarters isn't Starkiller Base majorly impacts the plot and understanding of the story

Not really. Why would anyone think its their HQ if it isn't where their Supreme leader is?

I didn't even occur to me that people would have thought that until you brought it up here.

 

[21stamps]

I don’t expect any future SW movie to do as well as TFA. The release of that movie had so much excitement in it because of the length of time between the last til now. I also think it had more excitement due to the age of parents with children who are now old enough to see the films.

I don’t know if that could be duplicated. There will be people who went just because of the hype, and probably won’t be back in a theater for SW again.

 

[LukeS7]

Not really. Why would anyone think its their HQ if it isn't where their Supreme leader is?

I didn't even occur to me that people would have thought that until you brought it up here.

That's a fair point, however the parallels to the Death Star and that having been the Empire's main HQ I suppose it what created the assumption for me and others.

 

[Gomer]

I don’t expect any future SW movie to do as well as TFA. The release of that movie had so much excitement in it because of the length of time between the last til now. I also think it had more excitement due to the age of parents with children who are now old enough to see the films.

I don’t know if that could be duplicated. There will be people who went just because of the hype, and probably won’t be back in a theater for SW again.

TLJ is heading for the same problem Avengers: AoU.

Even if it falls right in line with projections and finishes smack in the middle of Rogue One and TLJ for a top 3-4 all time take, people who want will try to spin that as a disappointment because it is lower than TFA.

 

[fractal]

Regardless of final production costs and box office gross necessary to break even, this movie is going to be highly profitable.

There's just this disgruntled portion of the fan base right now who need to channel their disappointment, and grasp at straws to support their view that the movie will fail due to being so terrible, and have an irrational *need* to find proof that everyone will eventually agree with them.

and you can't really say "regardless of the final production costs" (see that, I quoted your exact words), what if the production costs were $2 billion?

 

[LukeS7]

Also, I feel like I should note, if you enjoy the movie, that is perfectly fine and I'm not trying to get people to hate it. However, I also have my own viewpoints and I'm open to discussing and debating those points with others.

 

[Gomer]

That's a fair point, however the parallels to the Death Star and that having been the Empire's main HQ I suppose it what created the assumption for me and others.

Yeah, I accept that. I hadn't thought of it as misleading until now, but I can see how it could be somewhat confusing.

Again, I think the model off keeping that info off screen is fun for super fans like me who like to tear through the supplementary books, but is probably unnecessarily confusing to the more casual fan who doesn't feel a need to do that.

But in the end, I don't think it does too much damage to the viewing experience as most of the it isn't impact to the story in any way.

 

[21stamps]

TLJ is heading for the same problem Avengers: AoU.

Even if it falls right in line with projections and finishes smack in the middle of Rogue One and TLJ for a top 3-4 all time take, people who want will try to spin that as a disappointment because it is lower than TFA.

I wonder if Disney had the same projections for both movies.. I wouldn’t think so.

Is there any way to know how many tickets were sold before opening night to each movie?

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

1. You can't bring up a point, have it refuted with evidence and then go "Regardless, I'm right anyways"
2. By this point, Force Awakens had made ~$360 million solely domestically, which is higher than the current worldwide total of Last Jedi


Yes it will turn a profit, but "highly profitable" I think is an overstatement in-comparison to other films in the franchise.

Evidence? Did someone post actual evidence of the production costs and how much money the movie needs to make to be profitable? Random people on a message board throwing out numbers is not evidence.

None the less, I acknowledged that I may have jumped the gun in saying the film turned a profit immediately. That doesn't change the fact that the movie took in $450 million worldwide in it's first weekend. If you think this movie isn't a huge money maker, I don't know what to tell you.

I'd also speculate that the production costs on this movie are exaggerated. Remember that they're essentially paying themselves to do the expensive effects work, as ILM is owned by Disney. On paper, they probably cite market rates for those effects being completed.

 

[fractal]

I wonder if Disney had the same projections for both movies.. I wouldn’t think so.

Is there any way to know how many tickets were sold before opening night to each movie?

Actually, I believe TLJ had the most pre-sales of any movie - it was also screened on slightly more screens than TFA. Disney also demanded a bigger cut from the theaters and also made them guarantee it will be on the screens for 4 weeks; so we shall see.

 

[21stamps]

Actually, I believe TLJ had the most pre-sales of any movie - it was also screened on slightly more screens than TFA. Disney also demanded a bigger cut from the theaters and also made them guarantee it will be on the screens for 4 weeks; so we shall see.

Ok so I’m not totally imagining things.lol. I felt like there were more showing for TLJ than I’ve ever seen before. Every theater I checked had 3-5 formats running from 8am til after midnight.
There was a lot with TFA, but I don’t remember that many.

 

[fractal]

Evidence? Did someone post actual evidence of the production costs and how much money the movie needs to make to be profitable? Random people on a message board throwing out numbers is not evidence.

None the less, I acknowledged that I may have jumped the gun in saying the film turned a profit immediately. That doesn't change the fact that the movie took in $450 million worldwide in it's first weekend. If you think this movie isn't a huge money maker, I don't know what to tell you.

I'd also speculate that the production costs on this movie are exaggerated. Remember that they're essentially paying themselves to do the expensive effects work, as ILM is owned by Disney. On paper, they probably cite market rates for those effects being completed.

and I quote you - "and grasp at straws to support their view"

TFA all in cost was approx $450million.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

and you can't really say "regardless of the final production costs" (see that, I quoted your exact words), what if the production costs were $2 billion?

What if they were $4 billion? Saying "regardless of the final production costs" assumes this movie cost about as much to make as previous films in the franchise, and similar big budget special effects driven films. You're trying to find wild speculation in what I wrote, when there wasn't any.

We can guess based on common knowledge of this type of movie how much it cost. $400 million or so for production, marketing, and distribution is a reasonable guess.

If a movie that takes in $450 million on opening weekend isn't profitable, there isn't much point in making these kinds of movies.

 

[Gomer]

I wonder if Disney had the same projections for both movies.. I wouldn’t think so.

Is there any way to know how many tickets were sold before opening night to each movie?

To specific numbers. It was the top pre-sale of the year on fandango, which is inline with current box office. It will likely be the biggest domestic release of the year, barring some catastrophic failure.

Disney and Lucasfilm have been upfront on their expectations for this being below TFA. And industry projections have always had it coming in lower as well. It this tops 700 Disney will be thrilled I think. If it finishes in the 600's domestically, it will be in the AoU-like acceptable finish. Not a disappointment, not a surprising success either.

Anything in Rogue One like 500's will be a bit of a disappointment.

It will be very interesting to see where this goes this weekend with increased competition, but with schools finally out for recess. TFA's lead on TLJ's total has grown in the last few days because of where Christmas fall this year. The Monday-Wednesday landscape due to schools in session was far more hostile to TLJ. It is primed for an resurgence this weekend with Christmas on a Monday instead of a Friday as it was for TFA. But also has to deal with Jumanji and Pitch Perfect 3. Which is far more competition than TFA had.

Much of the box office conclusions will start to be written by next Tuesday I'd think. Outside of that pending question of what happens in China next month,

 

[flynnibus]

Not really. Why would anyone think its their HQ if it isn't where their Supreme leader is?

I didn't even occur to me that people would have thought that until you brought it up here.

Well the whole rally scene.... where hux kicks off the use of the weapon... and the need to secure a planet sized thing...

 

[Gomer]

Well the whole rally scene.... where hux kicks off the use of the weapon... and the need to secure a planet sized thing...

Again, maybe just me. But that was a relatively small group of storm troopers and one general with some subordinates around him. I always took it as a very important base of operations, but not the location of the entirety of their resources. Snoke implies as much when he commands Hux and Ren to retreat and regroup with him.

Same would go for the Death Star. The death Star was a battle station, but it didn't cripple the Empire when it was destroyed. It's a big blow, but one a military with significant resources was able to recover from quickly.

 

[flynnibus]

Evidence? Did someone post actual evidence of the production costs and how much money the movie needs to make to be profitable? Random people on a message board throwing out numbers is not evidence.

This coming from the user that starts off with "well if you ignore costs.." when talking about profitability?? Sorry, you aren't going to win the "solid ground" arguments from your cloud...

And all those ads and tie ins you've been seeing... they aren't free. Marketing budgets are redonkulous. And even tho ILM is in house.... the business doesn't work for free - their schedule costs money regardless because that's time they aren't working on something else. Each business still has a PnL to maintain and accounting rules still apply

Truth is... comparing to historical references when the market has changed so much has limited value. These films make monster numbers but is offset by the monster spending