Spirited Spring Break News, Observations & Thoughts ...

[GiveMeTheMusic]

Planes got to $90 million (with Smurfs 2, Turbo, DM2 and Monsters U taking up family audiences the month before, plus Percy Jackson 2 opening weekend)

Without all of the competition, it would have probably gotten $110-120 million

Considering TMNT is the only major kiddie competition after Planes 2, a $140 million DOM/$210 million foreign isn't too farfetched.

Dragons 2 will be a behemoth though. $340-380 million total DOM and likely approaching $900 million to $1 billion WW if it's a solid follow-up or gets raves like the first film

There's no way Planes 2 has a shot at $140 mil domestic unless it turns out to be so life changingly amazing that the word of mouth is inescapable (which is...highly unlikely). Since the first one didn't light the world on fire, it should perform at about the same rate or close to it, but a $50 mil bump is extremely optimistic.

 

[Ignohippo]

So let me get this straight. You're saying Planes 2 will gross more than How to Train Your Dragon 2? Planes grossed 90 mill domestically and How to Train Your Dragon grossed 217 mill. Planes was considered a mediocre movie to the public eye when Dragon was beloved by audiences. How can Planes 2 outgross Dragons 2 if nobody is really interested in Planes 2, but are highly anticipating Dragons 2. Dragons 2 will out gross the original and might be the highest grossing movie of the summer according box office analysts. I think they know what their talking about more than you

We shall see my friends. I have a bet with twebber55 that I will happily follow through with if I am wrong.

We loved the first Dragons in our house. It hasn't been watched in two years and my kids could care less. Planes is all over the place (the movie sucks btw but so did Cars 2 and it made almost $600 mil) and the home video sales and merchandise sales have been through the roof. Plus, it's fresh in everyone's minds.

I am certainly sensitive to not projecting my own reality as what is happening with other people, but I think there's general apathy about Dragons 2.

Dragons 2 will be a dud. Wait and see.

 

[mahnamahna101]

We shall see my friends. I have a bet with twebber55 that I will happily follow through with if I am wrong.

We loved the first Dragons in our house. It hasn't been watched in two years and my kids could care less. Planes is all over the place (the movie sucks btw but so did Cars 2 and it made almost $600 mil) and the home video sales and merchandise sales have been through the roof. Plus, it's fresh in everyone's minds.

I am certainly sensitive to not projecting my own reality as what is happening with other people, but I think there's general apathy about Dragons 2.

Dragons 2 will be a dud. Wait and see.

We shall see my friends. I have a bet with twebber55 that I will happily follow through with if I am wrong.

We loved the first Dragons in our house. It hasn't been watched in two years and my kids could care less. Planes is all over the place (the movie sucks btw but so did Cars 2 and it made almost $600 mil) and the home video sales and merchandise sales have been through the roof. Plus, it's fresh in everyone's minds.

I am certainly sensitive to not projecting my own reality as what is happening with other people, but I think there's general apathy about Dragons 2.

Dragons 2 will be a dud. Wait and see.

When the marketing is in full force, no way. $275 million is the lowest this can go with how little competition this has

 

[themarchhare]

Between Harambe Nights and the 25th anniversary, I'm becoming more and more disillusioned with WDW this week.

 

[StageFrenzy]

Between Harambe Nights and the 25th anniversary, I'm becoming more and more disillusioned with WDW this week.

Just this week?
(snark snark snark)

 

[themarchhare]

Just this week?
(snark snark snark)

*cackles*

Okay, so definitely not just this week. But I guess it's just been especially depressing this week (if that makes sense).

 

[Captain Chaos]

Between Harambe Nights and the 25th anniversary, I'm becoming more and more disillusioned with WDW this week.

Where were you for the last 15-20 years? LOL...

 

[stevehousse]

There are only 3 animated movies coming out this summer. June,Dragons 2 I think will end up gearing more toward adults actually and will do good non the less...I would be surprised if it does humongous numbers like they are predicting though...

July, Planes 2 will be big, and I think a lot of people are expecting it to under perform, but with merch sales they way they are, I doubt it will bomb like some people on here wish it would...

Sept, Box Trolls is the only movie I can see that would bomb...sorry but my kids think they are creepy as hell and have no desire to see it...I don't really care for the previews either...but with an unknown story and creepy tone like it seems it will have, it's gonna be a tough sell for the kids...

The only movie I can actually see bombing really bad is Disney's Million Dollar Arm. Also I'm not so sure Maleficent will do big either? I hate saying that too as I think it looks really good and I love me some Angie...Maleficent is also my favorite Disney villian, so I will definately see it, but I don't know if many others will??? With May being bombarded with big movies releasing every week, it's a crowded month and this is the only big movie I can see doing bad.

We get Spiderman2 tomorrow, Neighbors next week, followed by Godzilla the following week. The week after that is X Men and new Barrymore/Sandler movie Blended. And the last week of May is Maleficent and Million Ways to Die in the West.

All of these movies have a ton of buzz around them and is really a crowded month for movies! Something's gotta give and I don't see Disney winning big with these 2 movies...

 

[PhotoDave219]

The pixie dusters are out in full force indeed! Just spent an hour on twitter arguing with a man child with an awful podcast. Not Ricky either.

And I feel like I lose either way because I gave in.. anyone who thinks mm+ is and will be profitable is clearly lacking any knowledge of how dollars work.

Part of the problem with who gets credentialed days that there are so many different departments handling it. There is a read Deculus amount of bureaucracy to the point of absurdities.

One department handles Disney World's Facebook. A different department handles the third Twitter and their blog posts. Someone else handles the Instagram. A lot of it isn't even done here locally.

The problem, in my mind, is the bureaucracy. They don't need to sit back and be fair to everybody, because it's painfully obvious that all guests are not treated the same way. Why should the bloggers and the pod casters in the want to be soft core ographers be any different?

Whit the leadership… Not the front lines mind you but the leadership of the public relations department needs to grasp is they can say no to people. They have $139 billion market cap. They do not need a small army of bloggers to help promote the product. Their product promotes itself.

It's not necessary to hold media events to credential all these people, when most of them are just there to get the free stuff.

 

[Kman101]

Watching the news again (seriously, I need a hobby lol), I did like WFTV asking Staggs about the increasing ticket prices. His answer was typical though.

 

[bhg469]

Part of the problem with who gets credentialed days that there are so many different departments handling it. There is a read Deculus amount of bureaucracy to the point of absurdities.

One department handles Disney World's Facebook. A different department handles the third Twitter and their blog posts. Someone else handles the Instagram. A lot of it isn't even done here locally.

The problem, in my mind, is the bureaucracy. They don't need to sit back and be fair to everybody, because it's painfully obvious that all guests are not treated the same way. Why should the bloggers and the pod casters in the want to be soft core ographers be any different?

Whit the leadership… Not the front lines mind you but the leadership of the public relations department needs to grasp is they can say no to people. They have $139 billion market cap. They do not need a small army of bloggers to help promote the product. Their product promotes itself.

It's not necessary to hold media events to credential all these people, when most of them are just there to get the free stuff.

I do not think this pod caster is a credentialed one. It's a very bad one, not that they all arent.

 

[Cody5242]

We shall see my friends. I have a bet with twebber55 that I will happily follow through with if I am wrong.

We loved the first Dragons in our house. It hasn't been watched in two years and my kids could care less. Planes is all over the place (the movie sucks btw but so did Cars 2 and it made almost $600 mil) and the home video sales and merchandise sales have been through the roof. Plus, it's fresh in everyone's minds.

I am certainly sensitive to not projecting my own reality as what is happening with other people, but I think there's general apathy about Dragons 2.

Dragons 2 will be a dud. Wait and see.

I haven't seen one advertisement for Planes 2 and I've seen many for Dragon 2. How can Planes 2 grow on Planes when it wasn't well liked it the first place?

 

[Cody5242]

Planes got to $90 million (with Smurfs 2, Turbo, DM2 and Monsters U taking up family audiences the month before, plus Percy Jackson 2 opening weekend)

Without all of the competition, it would have probably gotten $110-120 million

Considering TMNT is the only major kiddie competition after Planes 2, a $140 million DOM/$210 million foreign isn't too farfetched.

Dragons 2 will be a behemoth though. $340-380 million total DOM and likely approaching $900 million to $1 billion WW if it's a solid follow-up or gets raves like the first film

But there's no way it's going to grow on Planes because nobody really liked it

 

[jlsHouston]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/30/is-disney-the-new-google-or-groupon.aspx

You already knew this but it's the first article I've seen that actually gets MM+. I agree it could work well for them but they may have overpaid so much that it doesn't break even. Plus the system is technically flawed at the moment which will also increase the expenditure on MM+.

I finally got a break in my non profitable stressful day to read this link. I gather the author comments a lot about Disney. And he owns Disney stock. I'm not saying his post isn't original thought but the last paragraph really made me think it was just a fluff piece slanted like a media release from Disney themselves.

 

[TalkingHead]

Please tell me some of you have noticed the Twitter craziness the last couple of days with Prince Valiant's wife cyber-bullying some other Disney Twitter personality.

Not to mention, Prince Valiant himself was obviously peeved by Attractions and TPR's video that showed the cottage at the end of Mine Train. He claimed he was told not to show the end of the ride.

And then he complained tonight about the Mine Train dedication time being too early in the morning.

Oh, how I wish the Spirited One was around to mock this mess!

 

[Kman101]

LOL at his whining. He should be glad he's allowed in and able to partake in all of this. So ungrateful. How many guests who pay the amount they do would love to get special treatment, gifts, special magic bands, etc.

 

[Ignohippo]

There are only 3 animated movies coming out this summer. June,Dragons 2 I think will end up gearing more toward adults actually and will do good non the less...I would be surprised if it does humongous numbers like they are predicting though...

July, Planes 2 will be big, and I think a lot of people are expecting it to under perform, but with merch sales they way they are, I doubt it will bomb like some people on here wish it would...

Sept, Box Trolls is the only movie I can see that would bomb...sorry but my kids think they are creepy as hell and have no desire to see it...I don't really care for the previews either...but with an unknown story and creepy tone like it seems it will have, it's gonna be a tough sell for the kids...

The only movie I can actually see bombing really bad is Disney's Million Dollar Arm. Also I'm not so sure Maleficent will do big either? I hate saying that too as I think it looks really good and I love me some Angie...Maleficent is also my favorite Disney villian, so I will definately see it, but I don't know if many others will??? With May being bombarded with big movies releasing every week, it's a crowded month and this is the only big movie I can see doing bad.

We get Spiderman2 tomorrow, Neighbors next week, followed by Godzilla the following week. The week after that is X Men and new Barrymore/Sandler movie Blended. And the last week of May is Maleficent and Million Ways to Die in the West.

All of these movies have a ton of buzz around them and is really a crowded month for movies! Something's gotta give and I don't see Disney winning big with these 2 movies...

I haven't even heard of Box Trolls!

Million Dollar Arm was probably made for peanuts so it doesn't have to do much to be successful.

Maleficent will all depend on word of mouth. If it's Alice, it will be unstoppable; if it's Oz, it will bomb hard.

Spider-Man 2 isn't getting good reviews so that could be a dud if the word of mouth is bad. It will have a great first two weeks though regardless.

Blended looks like the latest in a long line of Sandler bombs. Bad Neighbors is wait and see.

I have no idea what to think of A Million Ways to Die… It's another one that will depend on word of mouth. It might just be silly enough to grab all of the teen through 30 crowd and do quite well.

It's a crappy summer line-up if you ask me.

 

[BrianLo]

He's on SPIRITED Spring Break.

Is he? I was expecting a more solid goodbye... does he want us all to develop abandonment issues?

I'd assume Fantasyland and Tomorrowland will get sizable overhauls at Tokyo Disneyland.

Basically, Tokyo is getting nice things while Shanghai is just making sure they have enough attractions for opening day (Toy Story Land could very well be replaced with an actual area or more Fantasyland)

Definitely, all of what you said I totally agree is likely. I was hoping for some more solids (particularly Shanghai where Bob Iger has been quoted as having these 'expansions' ready for opening, aka 1.5 years from now).

I think you also mean Toyko gets more nice things while Shanghai also gets more nice things. What they were "getting" also put them slightly ahead/on par with Hong Kong as of 2016 (which is a nice park).

 

[Animaniac93-98]

if it's Oz, it will bomb hard.

Oz opened to $80 million on its way to $235 million in the US. Where it faltered was overseas, but it still pulled close to $500 million worldwide. Disappointment is a better word than bomb, which gets thrown around far too much in online discussion.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Oz opened to $80 million on its way to $235 million in the US. Where it faltered was overseas, but it still pulled close to $500 million worldwide. Disappointment is a better word than bomb, which gets thrown around far too much in online discussion.

But it needed to make 700 million dollars to get into the black.