Right, but what I am trying to explain is that people already barely use cash in the parks - they are already using an alternate form of payment. And the Room Key charge has always been available, as well. They theory you are talking about is sound, but your application is missing the details that make it work.
The effect you are talking about has to do with using cash vs. non-cash forms of payment. It's not about exponentially the further you get away from the cash the effect increases to that degree - in order for that to begin to be true, you would have to start with people going from cash to bracelet, when in most cases they are going from credit card to bracelet, or even room key to bracelet (which would see minimal if not impact at that point).
And, in the end, people are still paying in dollars. What would make a big difference would be if, say, they used an entirely different currency system. Kind of like a "Free to Play Game" where you can pay dollars for a certain amount of in-game currency. If everything in game was labeled by dollar amount, people would spend less than if it costs "100 Smurfberries" - even though they bought the Smurfberries with cash and could figure out the exchange rate should they desire.
So if Disney made the bracelets have their own currency - say, "Disney Smiles" - and you loaded them up on the bracelet with cash, that would have the effect you are talking about. Say, you paid $100 for 25 Disney Smiles. When you went to Pecos Bills, a soda costs 1 Disney Smile, and a burger costs 2 Disney Smiles. Hey, 3 Disney Smiles for lunch! Great. Until you realize you just paid $12 for what you would have spent $10 on before.
In this case, people are already spending virtual money - and while I know we should never underestimate the stupidity of the average tourist - it's a big stretch to think that just because it's now a bracelet you swipe besides a card it's somehow going to markedly increase spending. And certainly not enough to justify a billion dollars. Not in a million years. People are dumb, but if you can afford to go to Disney I honestly think you can't be that stupid about money that somehow a bracelet makes you run around the parks spending huge sums more money than you would with your credit card or room key to begin with.
As an aside, it would be hilarious if not so tragic that what we have to talk about Disney's big recent investment is to what degree they can trick people into spending more on food and crap. We are arguing about what degree Disney can manipulate people into spending more money. You know how Universal did that? They built some amazing rides that made the place a world-wide destination for fans. And more are coming. That's how you REALLY increase spending - making people come from all over and live a once in a lifetime experience that makes you not care about the bill later. Not playing people for fools thinking that by paying with a novelty item bracelet over credit cards or room keys is going to bump up the bottom line enough so they can be lazy and not try to actually compete in bringing guests with spectacular experiences, just marginally easier ways to shop...
)
