There are a lot of examples where moving to cashless and token systems increase spending while reducing loss.
People spend more on credit... It removes barriers like not having the money with you, not enough, etc
For just a quick example... Look at the airlines
http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2008/10/one-more-drink-per-flight-4-mi.html/
Right, but the thing is - in this case, people were already likely buying on credit as it is. And aside from just plain absent-minded people, most of us know exactly where on our person our credit card is and it's really no easier to swipe a bracelet than to swipe a card.
I also think people are making it sound like suddenly people are going to go store to store just swiping their wrist the whole time and forgetting about what they are spending. Presumably one will get a receipt with this, too - and while I save all my receipts because I'm just wacky like that, when people are spending "virtual" money off these bracelets, there is a higher chance they are going to keep even more careful track just from not knowing/trusting the technology. I know I don't check my personal credit card receipts one by one on my last day (when I do it's when the bill comes in after I am home), whereas under this system I think all but the most clueless among us will be checking the bill when they check out and keeping track throughout the week to make sure it matches. The "easier" they make it, the more people will self-audit because of the "this seems too easy" nature.
I think it will change some behavior (for instance, you might just put everything on the bracelet instead of going from cash to credit for different purchases), but that kind of washes out for Disney. Quick lesson: When you swipe a credit card at a merchant, like Disney, they have to pay a percentage of that purchase to the credit card processor (who then divvies it up between various other parties). It's usually a couple of percent, depending on what is being sold, the amount, etc. That's why (although they are mostly phased out or banned for one reason or another today) you used to see "cash" or "credit" prices, with the credit price being higher.
So on one hand Disney might end up losing on that detail, because they will be running more on credit than cash (when it's cash you pay for your $2.79 soda, they get all $2.79, whereas when it's on credit, they get, say $2.65 for it). But on the other hand - we have no idea what type of deal Disney has with it's processor, but it's often cheaper (almost always) to pay these fees on one large purchase (the charge-off at the end of your stay) than if they ran each individual transaction at the time of sale.
In the end, on that one detail - they will probably end up just about breaking even (pay more fees because of less cash, but save a bit on fees by running less individual transactions).
The reason I mention all that is because I think it's a perfect example of the larger picture - yes, this will increase some types of spending likely, but it just may decrease others. It has as many pratfalls as it has benefits, and to spend one BILLION dollars on it - it's going to take a LONG LONG time to pay for itself.
Meanwhile, just in the past four years, Universal has added HOW MANY E-ticket attractions? And how many will be there by the end of next year? All while we wait what will be nearing half-a-decade by the time it's completed for that little hill to be built in Fantasyland in nearly the same amount of time. Universal builds E-tickets from ground to opening day in less than a year, and more than one at a time. And Disney is sitting here quibbling over monitoring guest flow in bathrooms more efficiently with RFID, and trying to spare people the effort of locating their choice of payment on their person.
Disney ceded the "premiere theme park attractions" crown to Universal, no if's, and's, or but's about it. I still love the parks, but as much as I actually like New Fantasyland, TLM, and am looking forward to that little hill being done, even I cannot begin to pretend that they are doing anything near the level that Universal is currently performing at, with what has been recently done, and what is coming in the pipleine. I do hope that Star Wars saves the day - it can, but Disney has to let it.