Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[GoofGoof]

I realize it was never confirmed ... but safe bet the Trader Sam's clone was cut in the downsizing as well?

Tikiman's latest update said its still unknown if its in or out. They are still doing work on GCH so it could be part of that. Who knows. I still think they should just put it in at DTD where it will be easily accessible.

 

[scpergj]

However, this year schools aren't starting here in the northeast until next Monday since Rosh Hashanah is during the week, so figure it will be a last hurrah for some people this week.

School started here in North Florida on the 13th - at least in our county. First football games were Friday night.

I can tell you for sure that Downtown Disney was dead yesterday. We got there about 1 and left at 4:30, and at both times there was still parking available in Lot 1 and 2. We parked very close, and there were plenty of empty spaces around us. Funny thing was that as slow as it was, you still couldn't walk around the World of Disney store without being blocked at every corner...

 

[GoofGoof]

So many good points to comment on! Where do I start?

Yep, I agree that parking played an important factor in the first down scaling of the Poly DVC. Recall that they considered expanding on the west side (around Luau Cove) and building into the parking lot on the east side (near TTC). However, the most recent information suggests they are rushing the Poly DVC. 1 bedroom and 2 bedroom villas are popular among DVC members. However, these lengthen the conversion process. That they are going only with studios suggests they are accelerating the Poly DVC construction to fill an inventory gap they anticipate once VGF sells out. VGF is small and its inventory is going to be gone relatively soon. I'm sure Disney doesn't want a lot of DVC guides standing around with nothing to sell.

Typical for WDW in recent years, the only things they build quickly are stores and DVCs.

Yes, great point about the conversion from cash to DVC. Deluxe Resort occupancy rates are down. It's why we've seen recent examples of cash rooms being converted to DVC. AKV, BLT, and now the Poly. WDW is actually reducing its inventory of Deluxe Resort rooms. It seems a lot of "guests" don't like paying $400/night for an ordinary hotel room. Go figure.

Regarding the bungalows, I can't imagine them not negatively impacting the current ground level views. Sure, if I'm up a floor or two at the Poly I should be able to see over them but, from ground level, I suspect it will be impossible to not notice them.

With the Poly DVC scaled back, it's sure to sell out relatively quickly. It's small now, like VGF. Corporate Disney is going to want to sell something else and as long as "guests" are willing to take out high interest rate loans to finance them, Disney is more than willing to accommodate them.

I agree on most points. It will sell out fast. I don't like the fact that its only studios. I usually only stay in villas so I am not likely to trade in for Poly unless its to add a few nights on. As far as the ground view, I agree it will be impacted. I was more thinking of the view from an existing Poly room. The view from the point will be somewhat ruined, but the view from the main beach should be unaffected. The bungalows on the side of the point that are mostly facing the MK ferry launch should have little impact on the views. I still think if done right they can add to the overall vibe and theming of the resort.

The economics of this cutback are a bit confusing. I agree 100% that this and the GF villas will sell fast so DVC will need something to sell in the near future. Poly is arguably the most popular resort at WDW. Why not milk that popularity by building a few DVC wings like originally proposed? If they do this small project and then move on to Fort Wilderness to build a larger resort it will not sell nearly as well. The EPCOT idea is a little more interesting and they have had some success with Grand Californian looking over a park, but the logistics seem like a huge obstacle. They would have to move a lot of back stage buildings and roadways around. Seems to me it would have been easier to expand at Poly.

 

[luv]

I don't have a huge problem with Disney and its time-share thing. They make money and people are obviously happy to buy into it, so good for everyone.

It's the views. They've ruined what were lovely views around the lake.

They've also cluttered up the World Showcase and ruined views there.

Don't they get that Pretty matters?

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

@ParentsOf4 Just had an idea. Do you think it's possible they are building these bungalows (besides charging lotsa $$$$$$$$) to purposely obstruct the view and have those who only go to poly to watch fireworks unable to do so without actually staying AT the poly on a second or third floor, facing castle?

Just a thought. When we stayed there in May, the beach was awfully crowded by the time the fireworks started.... Afterwards people were monorail-ing it out of there as fast as they could. The pools were empty, as was captn cooks and the lobby.

And for the record, it was that "once in a lifetime Polynesian trip" after dealing with a ball and chain around both my mothers neck and my own, and it finally got removed... We needed a "deluxe" vacay and I can all but guarantee, as much as we both loved that hotel, we will never be able to afford it again. I'm ok with that. For what we paid, I'm looking at two solid weeks off site for the price of five days at the Poly. (Not sure why I feel the need to justify this but, regardless, there it is)

 

[Funmeister]

I heard Disney is working on a documentary centered around Iger called the "King of Versailles!"

 

[DougK]

It seems a lot of "guests" don't like paying $400/night for an ordinary hotel room. Go figure.

Good point. And let's face it the average rack rate price for a room at the Polynesian is not $400, it is way higher than that now. It is insane. We literally cannot afford to stay there any more, and I admit we miss it. I do not mind paying a premium for a great location and a beautiful resort setting, but upwards of $600, $700 per night (not even counting suites or concierge) is just pure greed on Disney's part. And it was showing in reduced occupancy levels. This new plan solves that by reducing available non-DVC room inventory.

Once again DVC bails out stupid management. God forbid they would have lowered hotel prices instead.

 

[Bolna]

But what are they going to do once they converted all deluxe resort rooms into DVC villas? Where is their revenue going to come from?

 

[flynnibus]

But what are they going to do once they converted all deluxe resort rooms into DVC villas? Where is their revenue going to come from?

Who cares about 5 years from now when that is someone else's term?

Your question assumes someone cares about the long term as much as they do the 'right now'

 

[PhotoDave219]

Interesting thing about the attendance patterns. Seems like more and more people view WDW as a weekend destination than a full week vacation. Could it be that this has something to do with the prices they charge...

It seems to be a lot of locals and people from South Florida

 

[Goofyernmost]

@ParentsOf4 Just had an idea. Do you think it's possible they are building these bungalows (besides charging lotsa $$$$$$$$) to purposely obstruct the view and have those who only go to poly to watch fireworks unable to do so without actually staying AT the poly on a second or third floor, facing castle?

Just a thought. When we stayed there in May, the beach was awfully crowded by the time the fireworks started.... Afterwards people were monorail-ing it out of there as fast as they could. The pools were empty, as was captn cooks and the lobby.

And for the record, it was that "once in a lifetime Polynesian trip" after dealing with a ball and chain around both my mothers neck and my own, and it finally got removed... We needed a "deluxe" vacay and I can all but guarantee, as much as we both loved that hotel, we will never be able to afford it again. I'm ok with that. For what we paid, I'm looking at two solid weeks off site for the price of five days at the Poly. (Not sure why I feel the need to justify this but, regardless, there it is)

Anything is possible, but, wouldn't that also obstruct the view for the guests at Poly first floor and those not facing the castle? If you paid that much and you couldn't watch the fireworks from the beach...wouldn't you feel the need to complain just a tad even if you were watching them from the second or third floor? I know I would. I suppose they could build a special fireworks viewing location above on the roof that was accessible to guests only, but that would still ruin it for a lot of people. Anyway, I'll believe the bungalows exists when I spot the first guest brushing off those brain sucking amoeba's from their legs as they wade to their rooms.

 

[Goofyernmost]

It seems to be a lot of locals and people from South Florida

Only once in all my years of visiting WDW have I spent a week there. 4 days has usually been my limit before I'm ready to place giant mouse traps at random locations around the park. So even though I have fluctuated between 1500 miles away and 600 miles away it has always been a long weekend trip for me. Not necessarily on the weekends though, but some of the time it has been.

 

[GoofGoof]

@ParentsOf4 Just had an idea. Do you think it's possible they are building these bungalows (besides charging lotsa $$$$$$$$) to purposely obstruct the view and have those who only go to poly to watch fireworks unable to do so without actually staying AT the poly on a second or third floor, facing castle?

Just a thought. When we stayed there in May, the beach was awfully crowded by the time the fireworks started.... Afterwards people were monorail-ing it out of there as fast as they could. The pools were empty, as was captn cooks and the lobby.

And for the record, it was that "once in a lifetime Polynesian trip" after dealing with a ball and chain around both my mothers neck and my own, and it finally got removed... We needed a "deluxe" vacay and I can all but guarantee, as much as we both loved that hotel, we will never be able to afford it again. I'm ok with that. For what we paid, I'm looking at two solid weeks off site for the price of five days at the Poly. (Not sure why I feel the need to justify this but, regardless, there it is)

I borrowed this from the Poly DVC thread. Credit to @DVCrockett for posting it:

Based on this sketch it looks like the vast majority of the bungalows will be on the right side of the point, fronting the beach area directly in front of Tahiti. The beach area to the left of the point fronting Hawaii and the main pool area should still have unubstructed MK views. I think that is the most popular area to view MK fireworks. The beach by the Luau cove will also still have the same views. The ground floor views from Tahiti as well as the beach in front of it will take the biggest hit and maybe the ground floor rooms in Hawaii closest to the point.

 

[ParentsOf4]

But what are they going to do once they converted all deluxe resort rooms into DVC villas? Where is their revenue going to come from?

Deluxe Resort occupancy rates are down. The rooms they are converting to DVC represent excess capacity that was no longer generating revenue anyway.

Back in the old days, most Deluxe Resort rooms went for less than the equivalent of about $250/night in today's dollars. With no Value or Moderate Resorts to compete, occupancy rates were nearly 100% year round. I remember family members going to WDW in September because that was the only time they could get a room at the Contemporary.

Beginning with the addition of Caribbean Beach Resort in 1988, WDW started adding a number of Value and Moderate Resorts. Occupancy rates remained high so, of course, Deluxe Resort room rates climbed. WDW maintained demand through a constant stream of major expansions such as Disney-MGM Studios (1989), Typhoon Lagoon (1989), Pleasure Island (1989), Blizzard Beach (1995), and Disney's Animal Kingdom (1998). In many ways, these years represented WDW's Golden Era and occupancy rates at all resorts remained impressively high.

Things seemed to have gone off the track in the 2000s. Theme park improvements (which drove demand) slowed to a trickle in a struggling economy as corporate Disney went into "safe mode", while WDW jumped on the timeshare bandwagon. In terms of regular resorts, only Pop Century (2880 rooms) opened in 2003 while Disney opened DVCs at Wildness Lodge (181 rooms), Beach Club Villas (282 rooms), Animal Kingdom Villas (708 rooms), Saratoga Springs Resort (1320 rooms), and Bay Lake Tower (428 rooms) that same decade. WDW shifted from trying to attract new guests via the theme parks to trying to capture guests on site through gimmicks such as DVC, Disney's Magical Express (DME), and "Free Dining".

Under Iger it's only gotten worse, with another couple billion thrown into MyMagic+ as a tool to extract more dollars out of their "guests" without significantly enhancing the theme park experience. Iger's regime has created such a mess at WDW that Disney is being forced to spend big to restore all 4 theme parks.

 

[artvandelay]

Do not like the idea of "studios only" except for the bungalows.

@ParentsOf4 could they be building the Poly DVC along the lines of Animal Kingdom DVC? Take existing rooms in a deluxe hotel, convert them to DVC, then say its so popular we're going to build a separate DVC wing? This would give them inventory to sell quickly, but give them time to make infrastructure improvements to support a larger resort.

 

[Mike730]

Under Iger it's only gotten worse, with another couple billion thrown into MyMagic+ as a tool to extract more dollars out of their "guests" without significantly enhancing the theme park experience. Iger's regime has created such a mess at WDW that Disney is being forced to spend big to restore all 4 theme parks.

Are you taking a swing in the dark here or do you know something I don't?

Did you mean... "Disney would be forced to spend big if they wished to restore all 4 theme parks" or am I missing something?

Also, I can't believe I just read through two pages of intelligent discussion in this thread, thanks.

edit: Do you think they realize the parks are stale?

 

[ParentsOf4]

@ParentsOf4 could they be building the Poly DVC along the lines of Animal Kingdom DVC? Take existing rooms in a deluxe hotel, convert them to DVC, then say its so popular we're going to build a separate DVC wing? This would give them inventory to sell quickly, but give them time to make infrastructure improvements to support a larger resort.

The AKL was a special case. Disney pumped some serious money into that resort and thought cash customers would flock to it to experience the exotic African savannah. Instead, its location turned off a lot of potential guests and Disney found themselves scrambling to convert parts of Jambo House into DVC to dump excess inventory.

Even at popular Deluxe Resorts such as the Poly, occupancy is down. Let's face it, at over $600/night (with tax) for even a Standard View, even with a 30% "Room Only" discount, the Poly is now outrageously expensive for what it is. Heck, I can't believe it but the Poly even has some rooms, mind you, these are just rooms, that are over $1000/night with tax. Are they nuts?

No they are not. They recognize that, at those prices, the Polynesian is never going to fill up again. Better to convert excess inventory into DVC to recoup some cash. At a minimum, a DVC Poly will start at $150/point and probably will have over 3 million points to sell. Simple math suggests Disney has close to half-a-billion tied up in excess inventory. From a business perspective, heck yes they should convert those rooms to DVC.

Long term, could they build more Poly DVC rooms? Sure. However, what they really need (not what we need) is a large DVC in a popular location, something they could sell for a number of years. I think there's room between TTC and the Contemporary but the most commonly mentioned options are near Fort Wilderness or a stand-alone Epcot DVC, perhaps something with its own entrance into the World Showcase. This is just speculation though. I've been making inquires and have yet to hear anything concrete.

What apparently has changed in the attitude within the halls of Disney Vacation Development, Inc (DVD). 12 months ago, there was genuine concern that DVC was reaching its saturation point, hence the small DVC at the Grand Floridian. Now after 8 months of strong sales, they've convinced themselves to return to their old ways; sell lots of heavily financed DVCs at high prices to unsuspecting rubes who are relaxing on their WDW vacations.

It's really shocking to watch how many DVCs at SSR, AKV, and BLT are going through foreclosure. Even more are getting rid of their DVC memberships at a loss on the resale market after owning for only a few years. They just didn't take the time to think it through. People who bought DVC directly years ago or those who bought via resale more recently might have gotten a good deal but those buying directly from Disney today are not.

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

I wish I understood DVC and how it works better. I can't get a solid grip on it. So I'm gonna smile and nod from this point forward....


Is there a DVC for Dummies out there?

 

[ParentsOf4]

@ParentsOf4 Just had an idea. Do you think it's possible they are building these bungalows (besides charging lotsa $$$$$$$$) to purposely obstruct the view and have those who only go to poly to watch fireworks unable to do so without actually staying AT the poly on a second or third floor, facing castle?

I think they are trying to place the bungalows in the least obtrusive place possible. However, no matter where they put them, they will block the view for some.

Considering Disney intends to price the Poly bungalows as Grand Villas, they are going after those with deep pockets. Using the VGF as an example, it takes 1174 points to stay a week in a Grand Villa during Spring Break or Summer. (1419 points for Easter or Christmas.) At $150/point, that's $176,100 just to buy the points! Annual Maintenance Fee is another $6351 per year just to maintain those points!

 

[alissafalco]

Even at popular Deluxe Resorts such as the Poly, occupancy is down. Let's face it, at over $600/night (with tax) for even a Standard View, even with a 30% "Room Only" discount, the Poly is now outrageously expensive for what it is. Heck, I can't believe it but the Poly even has some rooms, mind you, these are just rooms, that are over $1000/night with tax. Are they nuts?

I think anyone who would ever pay that is nuts. The most that I have ever paid for a hotel room was $700 a night in the REAL French Polynesia on my honeymoon in an over water bungalow. Now would I pay that for the fake Polynesian rip off in the swamps of Orlando with the creature from the black lagoon? Haha laughable (this was our wedding thank you card we sent to everyone)