I think you are focusing on extremes and ignoring everything in the middle to make the outcome what you want it to be.
If FP had no perceived value... no one would give a crap about being limited to 3 FP+ - but they do, so we know FPs are perceived as valuable. Nevermind how many permutations people have dreamt up to wonder if Disney is still going to comp them if they missed a FP+ reservation. To argue FP is not desirable for many is a fallacy that flies directly in the face of those facts.
But that's the extreme high end.. what about the middle? Every family I know of in my extended network of acquaintances who visit WDW all are aware of FP and know to use it. Do they know how to game it for max value? No, but they don't need to. They still use FP and desire to.
And what about the low end... the people who are clueless about FP and think its a paid upgrade, don't understand, etc. Yes, this population exists, but how prevalent is it? Are they forever stuck in this position or do they learn and then move up to the middle of the pack?
Your postulation that FP 'only enhances a few at the expense of the rest' and that it 'in reality was more detrimental then not' is not consistent with how the majority enjoy the parks. If it were true, Disney could unplug FP tomorrow and no one would mind at all. But do you honestly believe that to be true?
To start with, of course a lot of people would mind if FP were to be eliminated completely. Those would be the big users, the same ones that had a hissy fit when they started to enforce return times. I believe that this is the very reason why it still exists in one form or the other. You could very well be right, however, the only people that I think give two drips about limiting to three are those that have used more then that. Those who have never used it (new guests) or those that used it in a limited manner, (those that hadn't yet had the time to understand how the system worked) do not even know how the old system affected them much less how this one will.
Fastpass is and always has been desirable for MANY, that is absolutely true. However, MANY is not all and since this is a place were everyone pays essentially the same thing to enter a park, then MANY is not enough. MANY isn't necessarily even a majority. You ask how many know how to use it right out of the box, and I say that unless you have been there and actually accumulated FP's one does not have the hang of the timing and the requirements at the very least until the second visit. I also believe that FP is a reason why people are willing to go there. Of course, I also believe that as many, if not more, will never return because they were unable to be a part of it, for whatever reason. If you spend your vacation angry, you don't usually go back to see if you can exceed your previous degree of upset.
I can neither prove that FP has cost them a lot of guest any more accurately then you can say that it hasn't. I do know this, even if one uses FP (as I do when necessary) I still feel that same frustration and anger while standing in a line that I am unable to secure a FP for. Coming from the days of yore before Fastpass, I know that even though people got tired of waiting in line, there was never anger. There was a common feeling of experiencing something that was the same degree of frustrating for everyone. (not much really) We would stand in line, constantly moving, while we joked and whined and laughed with people we didn't know. We didn't like the lines but we knew that everyone had to experience the same thing. If we saw a line that was excessively long we would bypass it and come back later. Can't do that anymore because it will always be long no matter when we were in it. But, and I cannot repeat this enough, there never was anger in any palpable degree, ever. I'm talking about the vane popping, red faced anger that I have seen in current lines. If anyone thinks that this is a good atmosphere for encouraging repeat visits they ought to teach that in Business 101...they don't'.
It isn't even important that the person that thinks they have to pay for it so they don't is one of the angry people in line, the mere fact that something even exists that can cause that kind of upset to anyone, is wrong. You have family and acquaintances that know how to use it ahead of time? That is probably because you have other family and friends that have been there and have taken the time to explain it. That isn't necessarily a luxury that everyone has. Personally I have met more people that didn't know then did. If one were never there before FP then they don't know how FP is affecting them. Of course they see a value. The value that they see is much smaller then say that for a long time, experienced FP user, and therefore the amount of upset they feel about the Big 3, is less then the more experienced traveler.
In fact, in some ways, I can envision that perhaps the limitation of FP's and some sort of control over how many of the three can be "E" ticket attractions coupled with faux FP attraction locations, might even help lower that upset as long as it isn't all linked to staying onsite. If they actually do that ...OMG... there will be upset like has never been witnessed before.
Even then, if they are able to limit the numbers to 3 and only to onsite guests then standby lines will move faster too, but unless FP were completely eliminated it will never flow like it once did. Guess we all have to wait and see what they do and how it actually works in real time. Who knows, we may all be 100% wrong and this may be actually a decree from god in heaven who has looked down on the pitiful and stupid and said unto Disney... "It is written that thou shalt institute FP+ and all will be right with the world and yin and yang will once again be in balance".
