Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[AEfx]

NextGen is gonna crash and burn huh?

In terms of affecting Disney's business positively in any marked way - yeah, it's pretty much assured to end in that direction.

It's a value thing - they are spending a billion dollars on it, and it's going to be a LONG time before that could even be begun to be paid for by a subset of Disney guests (those that will even be eligible to use it at all) who are so excited about paying with a bracelet that they are going to spend more money than they would, or be so excited about booking a fastpass online ahead of time that they book extra trips.

In ten years this is going to be looked at as one of the biggest blunders in the history of the company, and perhaps the biggest blunder in terms of the parks, ever. Just look at what Universal is doing with that kind of cash - they built Harry Potter 1, Transformers, New Springfield, and are doing an absolutely unprecedented move connecting their two parks with a ride in between and a huge new area for Harry Potter 2...and I'd bet, they still are spending less than "Next Gen" doing stuff that actually will attract new business - and it doesn't take them 5 years to build a little hill like it does Disney.

This is all about wringing a few more bucks out of people who are already customers, not attracting new customers. It's basically them giving up on expanding their audience. It all goes back to DAK - DAK 'failed' for WDW because it did not increase overall attendance, it just spread it out more. This led Disney to think "well we have saturated the market, how can we get more out of those who already come" - and here we have Next Gen. What would be hilarious if not so sad, Universal came along and proved Disney completely wrong - they were able to bring a whole new audience to Orlando by providing a revolutionary product (that wasn't even that expensive if the numbers banded about are true - that WWHP basically cost the same as Everest).

It's that, beautiful as it is, AK wasn't something that the public demanded, and it famously had a problem even explaining what the heck it was (NATAZOO! LOL). And since then Disney has been focusing on the already converted, which brought us the Disney Mom Age. Study those that already come frequently, to get them to come more frequently and spend more. That's what all of this is about - increasing the spending of those that already come. And then Universal came along and started building amazing rides - and reinvesting the money in MORE new rides. Who'd have thunk??!! Building stellar attractions attracted more people! CRAZY!

The one good thing about the impending and likely spectacular failure of NextGen is that it will end the Disney Mom Age. Disney has a chance now - particularly with Star Wars, but in other areas as well - to start doing what they used to do best - build stellar attractions to attract people to visit.

When you really think about it, how the few new attractions we have seen in the past ten years have been whittled down to the bare bones and every expense spared that they could possibly cut, and then you look at what Universal is doing...it's almost sickening. Thinking how we haven't had a real major "WOW" attraction since the turn of the century and Universal is now cranking them out and shows no signs of slowing down. And yet we sit here talking about fancy electronic bracelets and online fastpasses.

I have hope...if I didn't, I wouldn't come here anymore. I actually love New Fantasyland - it was sorely needed, even just for the placemaking, and I love TLM - but it's the only bright spot to me in a long time, and it really isn't going to draw more people to visit. I know people who have never been to a theme park before who went to Universal just to see Potter - with all the franchises, characters, and films Disney has access to, it's almost criminal that this entire thing is designed to simply shake more money from the pockets of the people who already come - they gave up, and Universal took the opportunity and proved that it could be done. Disney gave up - and that is the saddest part of the whole matter.

 

[WDWDad13]

In terms of affecting Disney's business positively in any marked way - yeah, it's pretty much assured to end in that direction.

It's a value thing - they are spending a billion dollars on it, and it's going to be a LONG time before that could even be begun to be paid for by a subset of Disney guests (those that will even be eligible to use it at all) who are so excited about paying with a bracelet that they are going to spend more money than they would, or be so excited about booking a fastpass online ahead of time that they book extra trips.

In ten years this is going to be looked at as one of the biggest blunders in the history of the company, and perhaps the biggest blunder in terms of the parks, ever. Just look at what Universal is doing with that kind of cash - they built Harry Potter 1, Transformers, New Springfield, and are doing an absolutely unprecedented move connecting their two parks with a ride in between and a huge new area for Harry Potter 2...and I'd bet, they still are spending less than "Next Gen" doing stuff that actually will attract new business - and it doesn't take them 5 years to build a little hill like it does Disney.

This is all about wringing a few more bucks out of people who are already customers, not attracting new customers. It's basically them giving up on expanding their audience. It all goes back to DAK - DAK 'failed' for WDW because it did not increase overall attendance, it just spread it out more. This led Disney to think "well we have saturated the market, how can we get more out of those who already come" - and here we have Next Gen. What would be hilarious if not so sad, Universal came along and proved Disney completely wrong - they were able to bring a whole new audience to Orlando by providing a revolutionary product (that wasn't even that expensive if the numbers banded about are true - that WWHP basically cost the same as Everest).

It's that, beautiful as it is, AK wasn't something that the public demanded, and it famously had a problem even explaining what the heck it was (NATAZOO! LOL). And since then Disney has been focusing on the already converted, which brought us the Disney Mom Age. Study those that already come frequently, to get them to come more frequently and spend more. That's what all of this is about - increasing the spending of those that already come. And then Universal came along and started building amazing rides - and reinvesting the money in MORE new rides. Who'd have thunk??!! Building stellar attractions attracted more people! CRAZY!

The one good thing about the impending and likely spectacular failure of NextGen is that it will end the Disney Mom Age. Disney has a chance now - particularly with Star Wars, but in other areas as well - to start doing what they used to do best - build stellar attractions to attract people to visit.

When you really think about it, how the few new attractions we have seen in the past ten years have been whittled down to the bare bones and every expense spared that they could possibly cut, and then you look at what Universal is doing...it's almost sickening. Thinking how we haven't had a real major "WOW" attraction since the turn of the century and Universal is now cranking them out and shows no signs of slowing down. And yet we sit here talking about fancy electronic bracelets and online fastpasses.

I have hope...if I didn't, I wouldn't come here anymore. I actually love New Fantasyland - it was sorely needed, even just for the placemaking, and I love TLM - but it's the only bright spot to me in a long time, and it really isn't going to draw more people to visit. I know people who have never been to a theme park before who went to Universal just to see Potter - with all the franchises, characters, and films Disney has access to, it's almost criminal that this entire thing is designed to simply shake more money from the pockets of the people who already come - they gave up, and Universal took the opportunity and proved that it could be done. Disney gave up - and that is the saddest part of the whole matter.

Wow you're awefully confident that MyMagic+ is going to crash considering it hasn't fully been released yet...are you by any chance a wizard?

 

[MattM]

I was referring to the assets sheet on pg 3 where the company's "goodwill" is valued at 27 billion dollars.

I figured. It explains starting on page 53, like I said.

 

[luv]

Disney can't afford to keep pavilions open, update rides, perform routine maintenance, have pretty landscaping, keep all the attractions open until the park closes, hire more staff, keep the restrooms sparkling or even give us regular running water in the ladies' room sinks.

But they can afford a billion dollars for wristbands.

Something is up there.

 

[Darth Sidious]

Because it is an extremely well diversified company. Focus here tends to be on WDW, and that's fine, but there is much more to the greater Walt Disney Company (or, $DIS for @GiveMeTheMusic I kid I kid)

Take a minute and breeze through their 10k, which in its most basic sense, is just a statement that shows how a company makes their money (not trying to be snarky, but I think it would truly give an idea of the scope of the company):
http://thewaltdisneycompany.com/sites/default/files/reports/q3-fy13-form-10q.pdf

Not that it couldn't happen, but I think you probably have a better chance of getting struck by lightning and winning the lottery on the same day.

I concur, Disney is well footed and a mishap even in the billions of dollars range wouldn't really do much. It actually would hurt the executive compensation quite a bit since they get options.

 

[Darth Sidious]

If you are referring to the Lucasfilm acquisition on page 10, it's in the paragraph below the figures.

Intangible assets primarily consist of intellectual property based on the Star Wars franchise with an estimated useful life of approximately 40 years.

The goodwill reflects the value to Disney from leveraging Lucasfilm intellectual property across our distribution channels, taking advantage of Disney's established global reach.The goodwill recorded as part of this acquisition is not deductible for tax purposes.

In layman's terms goodwill is the extra cost you paid to acquire another company or asset. Goodwill is your markup over fair market value of physical and tangible assets. Goodwill is also the reason why these deals get done. For example buying a brand name... There is no physical value of owning the rights to the name 'Star Wars' or 'Indiana Jones' or 'Darth Vader' because they are fictionary and intangible. You pay for their leveraged revenue streams. You'd forecast revenue streams over a useful life which in this case was 40 years.

Also, I'm not sure because I haven't looked but the acquisition of The Muppets brand was likely all goodwill since I'm not sure they had any physical assets unless they actually sold muppet making sewing machines or actual muppets.

@the.dreamfinder

Edit: not directed at you just quoting you to elaborate.

 

[Darth Sidious]

@WDW1974 http://www.usatoday.com/story/cruiselog/2013/08/19/disney-cruise-dress-code-shorts/2670267/

 

[WDWFanDave]

Just a quick check in regarding MM+, it appears as though there's no longer an invite to test...it's becoming SOP. Online check in completed and the ability to book FPPs and order custom bands is there. No email invite to participate. Seems as though they are moving ahead full force. Oh, and noted the ability to book FPPs for TSMM, ToT, and RnRC all on same day. Just FWIW.

 

[WDW1974]

Wait, so, there aren't any rules in this thread and I can post whatever I'd like? I've been looking for a completely inappropriate place to debut my nudes.

Nah, if any nudes appear here, they'll be selfies taken by my fanboi minions in public WDW locales!

 

[wogwog]

Nah, if any nudes appear here, they'll be selfies taken by my fanboi minions in public WDW locales!

I just went blind at the thought. Typing this by touch.

 

[WDW1974]

Suggestion to all who see major issues with any of this Mickey Mouse minus project. If you only point out issues here in this forum you are mainly preaching to the choir. Please write or call WDW to complain as well. If you are able to visit during the test period even if you do not participate please let WDW know of your concern in writing or a personal visit to GR at the park or resort. Spend a bit of time at one of the so called service centers for this program now open in the parks and voice your opinion. Let Disney know it is not just 2% or even 20% of us who have issues as Disney seems to like to proclaim in the news. I do not believe any of those numbers based on this forum or from my friends who have been through parts of the nightmare MM minus. You should know Disney or any company can construct a survey that can only come out positive with clever wording or bribes.

I am one of the group that won't abandon a life long enjoyment with Disney but I see a change coming. Being local to WDW I have a pass and visit often. I very often go to a park and have the inflated price meals over a local restaurant to enjoy a walk in the park. I make an annual visit to Universal. My family is in discussions more often these days about when it is time to get new passes it may be for Universal and then WDW becomes the annual visit. Just to much control, effort, and problems to deal with in the future 1984 WDW. Vacations and fun should not require as much planning and effort I see coming at WDW.

I'd only suggest that anyone calling Disney to complain about NGE calls the exec of their choice directly. Believe me, if only 100 calls come(hell, maybe half that or a quarter) come into George Kalogridis,Meg Crofton, Jim MacPhee, NIck Franklin or Tom Staggs on their direct numbers in one day, it will be disruptive and Disney will take note.

This isn't calling to complain because you had a terrible meal at Be Our Guest or because of a room mixup that had half your family on the other side of Port Orleans.

Calling to execs gets attention. Trust me on this one. They want to have nothing to do with you or guests in general.

 

[RSoxNo1]

John Lasseter is a fan. Tony Baxter is a fan. ...Hell, Walt Disney was a huge fan.

No, I wouldn't hire Fanboi XXXX to run WDW. But I wouldn't preclude hiring him because he is a fan.

I hope most folks here realize that many Disney execs are outwardly contemptful and dismissive of the products they sell to the masses.

I would like a smart fan in charge of the parks, one that might have a business background would be a start.

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

I'd only suggest that anyone calling Disney to complain about NGE calls the exec of their choice directly. Believe me, if only 100 calls come(hell, maybe half that or a quarter) come into George Kalogridis,Meg Crofton, Jim MacPhee, NIck Franklin or Tom Staggs on their direct numbers in one day, it will be disruptive and Disney will take note.

This isn't calling to complain because you had a terrible meal at Be Our Guest or because of a room mixup that had half your family on the other side of Port Orleans.

Calling to execs gets attention. Trust me on this one. They want to have nothing to do with you or guests in general.

How do you even get through to them? Got direct numbers?

 

[WDW1974]

A journalist is supposed to allow room for both sides of the story, no?

Absolutely. Jason's piece reads like PR for MM+ ...and that means he absolutely didn't provide both sides of anything.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Wow you're awefully confident that MyMagic+ is going to crash considering it hasn't fully been released yet...are you by any chance a wizard?

The word on the street was that John Carter and Lone Ranger were going to crash and burn before they were even released. (Several thought The Lone Ranger was pretty good but a lot of good movies have performed horribly at the box office.)

It doesn't take a wizard.

Just someone with an excellent grasp of the product and a clear vision of what the public likes.

Like Walt Disney.

 

[GoofGoof]

Things move really fast on this thread. Sometimes I feel that someone makes a good point worthy of discussion but it gets buried behind a page or 2 of back and forth bickering about nothing. I'm as guilty as anyone of engaging in this. Let's just agree to ignore the people who are bringing nothing to the table instead of calling them trolls or responding to them.

On to actual discussion: are you saying if I'm going in November I won't have a choice? I was really hoping to get 1 more trip in before this "experiment" went live.

Just a quick check in regarding MM+, it appears as though there's no longer an invite to test...it's becoming SOP. Online check in completed and the ability to book FPPs and order custom bands is there. No email invite to participate. Seems as though they are moving ahead full force. Oh, and noted the ability to book FPPs for TSMM, ToT, and RnRC all on same day. Just FWIW.

 

[luv]

@WDW1974 http://www.usatoday.com/story/cruiselog/2013/08/19/disney-cruise-dress-code-shorts/2670267/

Cool. Now, maybe I can cruise.

I know people who can't enjoy their food and dining companions unless everyone else in the restaurant is wearing pants...they will be slitting their wrists, but I'm happy.

 

[WDW1974]

As @lazyboy97o said, just because something is "value engineered" doesn't mean that there cannot be a ton of waste.

You guys claim that VOTLM (or New Fantasyland, in general) was way to expensive for what we got as the final product and has been labeled here as "value engineered."

Just wondering what the difference would be?

Disney goes through money like no company I have seen in the entertainment sector. They spend absurd amounts on certain things and then nickel and dime on others. There was enough money budgeted for new Fantasyland to be a much more impressive product than what we got.

And, yes, that is leaving out the fact that originally this was planned as a $750 million project.

They spend, but they never seem to spend wisely.

Obviously, I do not for a second believe the obscene amount being blown on NGE is being spent wisely or to the benefit of fans, guests, cast and shareholders alike.

 

[Captain Neo]

The above is from the aforementioned John 's website - it's concept art for a now-defunct project called "Disney's Enchanted Forest".

Just look at that. LOOK AT IT. It's a Tree Castle. That's what could have been, folks. Man, I think I'm gonna cry...

Too expensive and not present in any box office smash so Disney aint building it and if they keep it up People will stop coming to the parks.

That tree castle is the kind of stuff Disney SHOULD be building unique architectural beauties that can't be seen anywhere else. Now they just want to be Universal Studios-Lite

 

[WDW1974]

IF NextGen did contain elements of underhanded data-mining, and these elements were kept quite intentionally, and eventually the truth was finally revealed, how many people would even care? We have stories of the NSA watching our phones, stories of drones being used in the U.S. on its citizens, and not to mention the TSA and its "methods", but no one is giving up their phone, Internet, or have stopped flying. Sadly, I think people have been/are willing to give up freedoms in exchange for entertainment. I have no data, numbers or stats to back up my thoughts, but I truly believe that is the case now. Freedom, as a responsibility, for many people, just isn't worth it.

Freedom, declining by degrees.

true, but there is always a tipping point in life and you never know what it will be (I still can't believe the first time I saw WDW management reviled across the board -- and discussion boards -- was when they opted to kill LoW at EPCOT ... I enjoyed them and wish they were around, but that wouldn't have been my proverbial straw).

On a governmental level, I do see O-Town as a sort of petri dish to see how far people can be pushed. They were one of the first airports in the world to install the virtual strip search machines, for example.

Back to Disney, people may have trust and good will, but it is not in endless supply. My friends at the company would be wise to take that as some free consulting work.