Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

luv

Well-Known Member
I will vouch for Tim. He's a good guy.
I never said he wasn't! Even if he gets paid, he can be a good guy! I'd sing the praises of Disney all day long if they paid me to do it. Or Uni. Or Sea World, Gatorland, Coca-Cola and the local Publix. Sadly, none of them have knocked on the door to ask me to do it, lol.

It seriously was not intended to say he's a bad guy!

I just wanted to know, so I asked.

I was asked if I worked for the UG/Touringplans people because I so often wholeheartedly recommend them. I answered straight up and didn't feel attacked in any way. I only remember it because I was then told that I should delete my posts because that poster didn't think the touringplans recommendation was a good one, lol.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Potter is beloved, I don't disagree, but it's just not quality literature. It will never be taught in schools or stand beside The Lord of the Flies or 1984 in the western canon.

Neither will Star Wars.. but what does any of that have to do with building theme park entertainment? I don't see anyone queuing up for the attraction based on the Taming of the Shrew... or The Maltese Falcon.. nor has the lack of literary praises kept Star Wars or Star Trek out of the public awareness.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
It is the worst possible angle, lol.

RRR is really not ugly. It's hard to hide a coaster without putting it inside, but they do a nice job with it

No, it truly is god ugly and really hurts the studio image of that part of the park. Many other coasters are themed by putting the coaster away from the park area (like Dueling Dragons was) but they plopped it right there in the middle of the park with the idea of integrating the buildings.. but its a visual scar on the park that's for sure.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Disney's focus is on upselling, guest spending, pricing, packages, and room nights

Yes, that's what we call coasting on our past... trying to squeeze the dollars out of existing vacation patterns rather than worrying about attracting new spending. You can use margin improvement as your business model for only so long.. eventually there is nothing left to milk and then all those sins come back to haunt you. It's the exact business model of Harris/Presler.. that lead to the stagnation of DL, and the undercutting of the Disney business model.
 

Tim_4

Well-Known Member
Yes, that's what we call coasting on our past... trying to squeeze the dollars out of existing vacation patterns rather than worrying about attracting new spending. You can use margin improvement as your business model for only so long.. eventually there is nothing left to milk and then all those sins come back to haunt you. It's the exact business model of Harris/Presler.. that lead to the stagnation of DL, and the undercutting of the Disney business model.
Honestly I tend to agree with your theory. The rub is, it's not playing out in the marketplace.
 

marni1971

Park History nut
Premium Member
It'll be interesting to see what it does to the park hopper strategy, especially as it relates to guests going to Uni. Currently, a vacation with six "park days" could breakdown like this:

MK
MK
Epcot
DHS
DAK/Epcot
Universal

I'd say Epcot is more than a one day park but less than a two day park. With DAK only open half a day, guests can get their "extra" Epcot evening by park hopping. If DAK becomes a full day park, that schedule is now:

MK
MK
Epcot
Epcot
DAK
DHS

Rut roh. Someone got pushed out of the trip.

Seriously? Concensus from 3 regular foreigners over here who are going or have just returned is forget DAK. DHS is a half day. Uni is one, IOA is another. Busch or SeaWorld are another. Epcot and MK one each.


No including this quote, whats happened to this discussion when opinion becomes warped fact? Seriously.
 

Tim_4

Well-Known Member
Seriously? Concensus from 3 regular foreigners over here who are going or have just returned is forget DAK. DHS is a half day. Uni is one, IOA is another. Busch or SeaWorld are another. Epcot and MK one each.


No including this quote, whats happened to this discussion when opinion becomes warped fact? Seriously.
If you weren't a regular, DHS is a full day and the other parks take longer as well. Being a regular, you have your favorites and know what to skip. However, if you were last there five or ten years ago, like the average guest, you'd go see every show and ride every ride. We all evaluate full day versus half day through our own personal lenses but many of us skip Beauty and the Beast or Idol or Indy or LMA or all of the above. There's a full day of stuff to do at DHS, just not a full day of stuff you FEEL like doing.
 

orky8

Well-Known Member
Honestly I tend to agree with your theory. The rub is, it's not playing out in the marketplace.

It is starting to. Insiders report that WDW profit numbers are low and starting to be a drag on P&R. Currently, all that is masked by the overperfomance coming from CA. But more importantly, WDW's business model is in severe danger of breaking down completely.

For the last 20 years or so, WDW's business plan has been to develop a wall around WDW and keep you inside from the moment you land at MCO. Disney's extra margin came not from ticket prices, but food, merch, and resorts. Once people start looking outside that wall, the business model starts to break down -- especially if people start staying off property, which, if you plan on leaving property to go to UNI for a day or two, then staying on property and using Disney transportation begins to look less and less sensible. This has not played out yet, but if (more like when) Uni and SW start to develop their properties to become major draws, the marginal day or two or three of park time disney loses may (and probably will) be a lot more than the marginal ticket income loss (which is just a few dollars in comparing a 3 day ticket vs a 5 day ticket), it is going to be the food, merch, and possibly hotel loss as well.

MyMagic+ or whatever Disney is calling it is a last-ditch effort to strengthen the wall and keep people completely on property. But I believe it won't be enough. They are going to need major and new attractions at ALL 4 parks if they hope to keep people in their wall because if people look outside that wall for just one day, the business model starts breaking down. Worse, they are several years behind. Even assuming AvLand and Carsland are both greenlit today, they are still 4-5 years away at the pace Disney works. That is 4-5 years of people peeking outside the wall. What if people discover that the grass is greener (or at least not brown and you get to keep a whole lot more of your own green) if you stay outside the wall.
 

Tim_4

Well-Known Member
It is starting to. Insiders report that WDW profit numbers are low and starting to be a drag on P&R. Currently, all that is masked by the overperfomance coming from CA. But more importantly, WDW's business model is in severe danger of breaking down completely.

For the last 20 years or so, WDW's business plan has been to develop a wall around WDW and keep you inside from the moment you land at MCO. Disney's extra margin came not from ticket prices, but food, merch, and resorts. Once people start looking outside that wall, the business model starts to break down -- especially if people start staying off property, which, if you plan on leaving property to go to UNI for a day or two, then staying on property and using Disney transportation begins to look less and less sensible. This has not played out yet, but if (more like when) Uni and SW start to develop their properties to become major draws, the marginal day or two or three of park time disney loses may (and probably will) be a lot more than the marginal ticket income loss (which is just a few dollars in comparing a 3 day ticket vs a 5 day ticket), it is going to be the food, merch, and possibly hotel loss as well.

MyMagic+ or whatever Disney is calling it is a last-ditch effort to strengthen the wall and keep people completely on property. But I believe it won't be enough. They are going to need major and new attractions at ALL 4 parks if they hope to keep people in their wall because if people look outside that wall for just one day, the business model starts breaking down. Worse, they are several years behind. Even assuming AvLand and Carsland are both greenlit today, they are still 4-5 years away at the pace Disney works. That is 4-5 years of people peeking outside the wall. What if people discover that the grass is greener (or at least not brown and you get to keep a whole lot more of your own green) if you stay outside the wall.
Very impressive. You understand the strategy better than almost anyone else who's attempted to articulate it. I like the wall analogy. I'd go into more detail but I'm on my phone so just two points of disagreement.

1. Avatar HAS been greenlit, and for significantly more money than Fantasyland.

2. Any insider who says WDW profit is down is incorrect. They just are. I don't know that any true insider actually HAS said this. It seems to be more "I heard from a friend who read a post quoting an insider."

If you choose to believe profit at WDW is down then there's not much to argue. You understand the strategy better than most but you're reaching your conclusions based on faulty data.
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
It is starting to. Insiders report that WDW profit numbers are low and starting to be a drag on P&R. Currently, all that is masked by the overperfomance coming from CA. But more importantly, WDW's business model is in severe danger of breaking down completely.

For the last 20 years or so, WDW's business plan has been to develop a wall around WDW and keep you inside from the moment you land at MCO. Disney's extra margin came not from ticket prices, but food, merch, and resorts. Once people start looking outside that wall, the business model starts to break down -- especially if people start staying off property, which, if you plan on leaving property to go to UNI for a day or two, then staying on property and using Disney transportation begins to look less and less sensible. This has not played out yet, but if (more like when) Uni and SW start to develop their properties to become major draws, the marginal day or two or three of park time disney loses may (and probably will) be a lot more than the marginal ticket income loss (which is just a few dollars in comparing a 3 day ticket vs a 5 day ticket), it is going to be the food, merch, and possibly hotel loss as well.

MyMagic+ or whatever Disney is calling it is a last-ditch effort to strengthen the wall and keep people completely on property. But I believe it won't be enough. They are going to need major and new attractions at ALL 4 parks if they hope to keep people in their wall because if people look outside that wall for just one day, the business model starts breaking down. Worse, they are several years behind. Even assuming AvLand and Carsland are both greenlit today, they are still 4-5 years away at the pace Disney works. That is 4-5 years of people peeking outside the wall. What if people discover that the grass is greener (or at least not brown and you get to keep a whole lot more of your own green) if you stay outside the wall.

You make good points but I believe Pandora is green-lit and has been since Iger announced it.

And Screamscape has some interesting rumors today.

I have said WDW will be getting investment and even wdw74 agrees with me now. Disney knows what the competition is doing now so that makes it easier to respond strategically. Which they have always done, continue to do and will do in the future.

I still think they have decided (or were 'convinced') that a healthy central Florida tourist industry "outside the berm" was in the mouse's best interest. That would explain most everything.

Compare the Microsoft/Apple story.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Honestly I tend to agree with your theory. The rub is, it's not playing out in the marketplace.

No? That's why you had to answer marni with
However, if you were last there five or ten years ago...

Yeah, because if you've been to the parks much in the last 5-10 years... they are largely the same and you can skip large portions of it because you are either a) bored of it or b) smart enough to know to not waste your time on it.
The margin milking is playing out in the market place.. people are cutting back and opening their eyes to other alternatives. The faucet doesn't turn off overnight... but the damage has been done.
 

orky8

Well-Known Member
Very impressive. You understand the strategy better than almost anyone else who's attempted to articulate it. I like the wall analogy. I'd go into more detail but I'm on my phone so just two points of disagreement.

1. Avatar HAS been greenlit, and for significantly more money than Fantasyland.

2. Any insider who says WDW profit is down is incorrect. They just are. I don't know that any true insider actually HAS said this. It seems to be more "I heard from a friend who read a post quoting an insider."

If you choose to believe profit at WDW is down then there's not much to argue. You understand the strategy better than most but you're reaching your conclusions based on faulty data.

Whether or not Avatar is greenlit and what pieces are greenlit is not really the point -- the point is when will we see it? Based on FLE construction, I'd be shocked if we see this before 2018. In any event, all four parks need to be major draws to keep people inside the wall.

With regard to WDW's profit, I dunno. These numbers are not publicly reported and I don't mean to suggest WDW is not profitable -- indeed, that is is the problem -- it is profitable no matter how much TDO spits on their property it keeps turning a profit so its hard to blame them from a financial perspective. But, I do believe it is underperforming -- certainly relative to DLR. More importantly, my point is that if WDW's business strategy breaks down and people start to look off property, it could be like a boulder that starts slow and then is very difficult to stop because of all the other revenue that leaves with that marginal park day or two or three.
 

twebber55

Well-Known Member
Very impressive. You understand the strategy better than almost anyone else who's attempted to articulate it. I like the wall analogy. I'd go into more detail but I'm on my phone so just two points of disagreement.

1. Avatar HAS been greenlit, and for significantly more money than Fantasyland.

2. Any insider who says WDW profit is down is incorrect. They just are. I don't know that any true insider actually HAS said this. It seems to be more "I heard from a friend who read a post quoting an insider."

If you choose to believe profit at WDW is down then there's not much to argue. You understand the strategy better than most but you're reaching your conclusions based on faulty data.
any ball park figures on the price tag for avatar..im assuming NFL was about 400 million
 

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