Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[Funmeister]

Thanks!

My reference to a Fifth Gate was hyperbole, as in “even if they built every fanboi’s dream, a Fifth Gate, there’s no assurance it would succeed.” I am (was) a WDW fanboi and even I don’t think a Fifth Gate is the right move at this time. WDW has 3 theme parks that need work. These should be addressed before investing heavily in another theme park.

WWOHP and Carsland have shown the next logical progression; find a great IP and build a land around it in an existing theme park. Disney already owns some great IP. WDW has 3 parks that could use help. It’s a perfect fit. What’s Iger waiting for?

The problem at WDW right now is that a new land almost certainly would be “value engineered” the way FLE was and turn out to be a dud.

IMHO, Iger simply doesn’t understand WDW. He’s got segment and divisional leaders making poor or short-sighted business decisions (lucky us, yet another DVC!) and doesn’t trust them enough to greenlight a large creative project. Iger doesn’t know how to correct the problem. He plays musical executives but replaces one executive with a copy-and-paste of the last executive. Iger doesn’t trust the creative process so he keeps appointing administrators to keep a tight rein on budgets. I’m not sure Iger has a creative bone in his body and he’s reinforced a Wall Street mentality on his organization: immediate returns, cut costs, leave a trail of bodies behind and move on to the next deforestation. Let’s terminate, oops, I mean retire anyone who has a track record of creativity because creativity means investment, investment means spending, and Wall Street doesn’t like spending. If we actually decide to move forward on a project, let’s make sure it gets value engineered to the point where its failure is assured, then we can blame the creative minds for its failure and get rid of them and avoid spending in the future.

Wall Street has never known how to grow a business. A business leader needs to lead, not watch which way the wind is blowing on Wall Street.

What is sad is that I could the company moving forward with a 5th gate (no substance - see Walt Disney Studios Paris) for the sake of "competing." What should happen is that Disney should reinvent and invest in the parks they already have...as you said.

The key to success at WDW is to start offering real rides, attractions and shows to fill DVC. DVC and the resorts are the true moneymakers on property however they are not offering any justification to guests to actually stay on property anymore.

 

[flynnibus]

Disney keeps thinking these smaller D Ticket attractions like Mermaid and the Mine Train will move the needle. They don't. Look at Mermaid at DCA, it was nicely received because it replaced a very boring history movie and was slotted into a park that had no animatronic-musical attractions. But it didn't move the attendance needle for DCA much at all after it opened in May, 2011.

2010 DCA Attendance Pre-Mermaid - 6.29 Million
2011 DCA Attendance Post-Mermaid - 6.34 Million

They grew attendance by 55,000 people thanks to Mermaid. I think they'd get more if they brought back the original corn dog recipe with the beef franks instead of the turkey.

But then they put in Cars Land in 2012, with one of the biggest and best E Ticket family thrill rides in the entire Disney Empire, and DCA attendance skyrockets by millions.

It's quite apparent the executives in Burbank and TDO keep thinking they aren't in the amusment park business and they can get away with vapid marketing campaigns and slimy "Social Media" stunts and more timeshares to grow their business. It doesn't work. Earth To Disney Executives! You are in the amusement park business whether you like it or not, and amusement parks need big exciting new RIDES to grow the business!

Things aren't that simple.

1 - yty attendance comparisons sway on much more than simply what happened in the park. It would be naive, or deceptive, to pin single digit movement on a single change.
2 - Disney's gate attendance reporting model is deceptive in its own right and not very useful to gauge overall boosts in attendance. The real important metrics like unique visitors, spending per guest, time in the park, repeats, length of stay, etc we don't see. The old 'DCA was up, but DL was down' due to first gate stuff just epidimizes how weak a tool their attendance click metrics are for truely gauging things.
3 - A Disney resort *IS* more than just rides. That's why WDW when built from the start was a complete resort experience and not just a theme park on a lake. It's why Disney drove to be a top hotelier, established fine dining, live entertainment, recreational activities, shopping, etc.

A new ride is the carrot.. but it alone can not sustain healthy sustainable growth. It's like a piece of candy.. everyone loves it, everyone will make an effort to try it, but you can't just eat the candy all day long over and over, and you can't live on it alone. It's why the regional park model of 'just add a new coaster every season' isn't sustainable and why it doesn't really grow them long term. The coaster alone doesn't generate revenue, and if you don't build out a symbiotic ecosystem to capitalize on extracting revenue from the additional guests the 'carrot' brought in... you're in a death spiral of spending each year to try to get that candy fix.. while not actually generating enough additional revenue to pay for it. Eventually you end up with insurmountable debt or the inability to grow the product.. you stagnant.. and die.

To take that back to Disney... they can't just throw in an e-ticket every year or two and think that alone will make everything hunky dorry. Rides do not have unlimited re-ride potential. You bore of them or physically can not keep riding.

Disney needs to keep things FRESH - 'new things to see.. new things to do... new things to experience...' - some of that is new rides, but it can't be rides alone, and simply throwing out a new e-ticket alone won't fix things.

The problem of late is WDW has
- been stagnant of the 'big splash' for too long
- ran many elements too long without refreshes (parades, shows, etc)
- been resorting to reworking or simply rehashing existing concepts to substitute as adding something 'new' (expanding F&G, expanding races, etc)
- while simultaneously been trimming and cutting on the 'supporting cast' of things to and experience
- and all while using price increases to boost revenues in the face of declining growth

WDW is a ecosystem.. because it's not a day-dodge attraction. WDW has systematically been stale and boosting it back to the 'can do no wrong' level of people is going to require returning to actually keeping the product Fresh in the 3-5 year cycle. That is going to take both 'new carrots' to be the big draw and all the supporting cast to keep them satisfied once they are over the sugar rush of the new eye-candy.

 

[flynnibus]

I'm sorry, but having an overly preachy story about a topic that most people really don't care about (though is an important topic, just not one most care about)...ending with a dead elephant (or even an injured one)...

Really, I go to church to get preached at, not theme parks. Especially since the ride offered nothing but awareness...no real actions an individual could take on the ride to stop real poaching...

It's insulting, preachy, and silly. And should never have been storyboarded. I don't go to Disney to reflect on real world issues, I go to Disney to escape from them.

I disagree - Disney has lots of things advertised (and offer participation via support, etc) for conservation efforts. The point of raising the awareness and facing it is far more interesting IMO vs the standard Disney alternative of 'all is wonderful in the garden of eden.. we men do no harm ever!' Disney scrubbing of reality.

When I'm on Castaway Cay playing with the stingrays.. I'm glad they spend time talking about the animals and their needs.. instead of just acting like they are animated toys for us to play with for 30mins. Same thing plays out at DAK.

It's not preachy - it's facing the whole picture.. not just putting things out for amusement.

 

[flynnibus]

It was at this point that my brain began to wonder if I had been wrong about this for 18 years.

On the other end of the spectrum, I can recall snippets from all 4 SSE narrators (though not entire scripts like some). In the case of the first 3 it is due to intense like, and in the case of the 4th it is due to intense annoyance, which is different than indifference.

We often joke about how many arguments would have played out so much differently if we had Google back in our college days or internet in our pocket

 

[ctxak98]

This part of your post captivated me.

Specifically, it's easy to preach about sustainability and the the impact humans have on the environment.

It's completely different to take it to the next level and instead of shaming people who are not poachers and will probably never purchase items that support the poaching trade (rather, they support items that support the "ok with us" foreign slave labor wages in asia which make all the Disney crap we purchase)...

Bit off track...

The point is, it's completely different to say "here is a sad story, and here is what you can do and here is what we are doing as a species to grow beyond this", rather than "here is a sad story, and you should feel bad and you can do nothing...Bambi dies because of selfish hunters...take that you kids! I hope you enjoyed the ride!"

I am sorry, maybe my memory if foggy, But where in the old version does it say WE are the poachers!? and that WE are being shamed!? I believe the story was that we were helping them get rid of the poachers and chase them off the reserve and because of our help, we ended up saving a very fake looking Elephant AA. I really don't see anything too preachy about that IMHO.

I mean sure AK does touch on the Important parts of Ecosystem damage, Deforestation, and Poaching but Those are all things we are ALL very aware of and to be fair, MOST zoos do the same thing next to the Animal Cages. My personal zoo will have a meter next to the animal saying If its endangered, severely endangered or sustainable. Its nice to know this stuff sometimes. It wont kill you or ruin the magic, And if it does just stay away from the ride I guess

 

[MattM]

Things aren't that simple.

Agree with all you said. Especially the "ecosystem" comment, much like Apple.

Also, Disney isn't just in the amusement park business. That the Walt Disney Company totals 5 divisions. I know that this is a theme park board, but just because they aren't paying attention to one resort in one division does not mean that it is not a well run company.

 

[Genie of the Lamp]

Any entertainment firms out there Disney maybe looking to acquire or have interest in acquiring?:
http://www.deadline.com/2013/04/pwc-merger-acquisition-media-entertainment-2013/

 

[TalkingHead]

Someone in another thread mentioned voting with your dollars, putting your money where your mouth is. If you don't like WDW, then don't go.

I haven't been to WDW in a couple years, haven't paid to walk through the gates in probably a decade, and have no idea when I'll be back.

It's astonishing when you see threads about "rumored" replacements for Imagination or MGM's shows or expansions to the parks. And then you stop and realize there are literally dozens of attractions/shows that need to be replaced or improved.

Imagination gets a lot of attention, but Wishes is 10+(!!!) years old. Illuminations is older than that. Fantasmic is old, too. And now consider that the WDW fanbase would be happy for one or two of these things to be improved. Realistically how much money and time would it take to bring WDW across the board up to date? I guess that's the next CEO's problem. That's the mentality today, right?

When I see what Universal is doing and plans on doing, there's no question where I'll be spending my theme parking time in the coming years. Until Disney starts adding major new attractions that raise the bar, I'll be visiting Universal or even SeaWorld -- places that aren't taking their customer base for granted.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Yes, I have become aware of that.

It wasn't my intent to annoy, just to inform.

I also vaguely remember hearing a story (perhaps from Jim Hill) where someone observed the dead elephant from a plane or helicopter and reported Disney. Don't know if that's legit.

 

[George]

It wasn't my intent to annoy, just to inform.

It wasn't my intent to make you think I was annoyed. Actually, I was glad for the opportunity to make that long, rambly post since I had been thinking about things like that throughout the discussion.

 

[Darth Sidious]

Thanks!

My reference to a Fifth Gate was hyperbole, as in “even if they built every fanboi’s dream, a Fifth Gate, there’s no assurance it would succeed.” I am (was) a WDW fanboi and even I don’t think a Fifth Gate is the right move at this time. WDW has 3 theme parks that need work. These should be addressed before investing heavily in another theme park.

I figured you weren't being serious, I suppose I was more so just addressing that general idea.

WWOHP and Carsland have shown the next logical progression; find a great IP and build a land around it in an existing theme park. Disney already owns some great IP. WDW has 3 parks that could use help. It’s a perfect fit. What’s Iger waiting for?

The problem at WDW right now is that a new land almost certainly would be “value engineered” the way FLE was and turn out to be a dud.

Star Wars!

IMHO, Iger simply doesn’t understand WDW. He’s got segment and divisional leaders making poor or short-sighted business decisions (lucky us, yet another DVC!) and doesn’t trust them enough to greenlight a large creative project. Iger doesn’t know how to correct the problem. He plays musical executives but replaces one executive with a copy-and-paste of the last executive. Iger doesn’t trust the creative process so he keeps appointing administrators to keep a tight rein on budgets. I’m not sure Iger has a creative bone in his body and he’s reinforced a Wall Street mentality on his organization: immediate returns, cut costs, leave a trail of bodies behind and move on to the next deforestation. Let’s terminate, oops, I mean retire anyone who has a track record of creativity because creativity means investment, investment means spending, and Wall Street doesn’t like spending. If we actually decide to move forward on a project, let’s make sure it gets value engineered to the point where its failure is assured, then we can blame the creative minds for its failure and get rid of them and avoid spending in the future.

Very true and agreed.

Wall Street has never known how to grow a business. A business leader needs to lead, not watch which way the wind is blowing on Wall Street.

Yeah, honestly unless you're still issuing securities, who gives a crap what Wall St thinks. Just be a good leader and better the company. In that scenario shares prices will rise, if not immediately then eventually. Executive compensation plans with stock options are the root of this problem. If the execs didn't own a ton of stock options, the price would be less relevant. However, it's a double edged sword since you want the execs to better the company for shareholders as well.

 

[George]

Dating myself, but I remember when it was Circus World. I got to ride an elephant (a real animal, not a spinner) when I was like 7.

But the failure of Cyprus Gardens, Circus World, Boardwalk & Baseball, Church St. Station, etc. proves a point: the central Florida tourism market is constantly shifting and very fickle. An icon this decade may be a SuperTarget in 10 years. Even if I was the biggest theme park that ever was and ever will be, I wouldn't allow my product to get stagnant and stale, especially if the competition is on a building spree.

I did the same thing at Busch Gardens Tampa. Look, someone loaded a video of it onto youtube -

 

[culturenthrills]

WDW has been resting on its laurels since the late 90s ... pretty much like Detroit thinking the Cadillac Cimarron was going to stem the bleeding to Japan's smaller cars in the early 80s. WDW thinks its small scale new attractions like TSMM and Mermaid can compete with the WOW attractions that UNI and SW are developing.

AND JUST TO BE CLEAR:

As I revealed here, UNI has major new attractions coming to both parks, the addition of more hotels including at least one deluxe-plus, and a new water park. All the while, the fanbois debate mythical Disney fifth gates. The reality here is that UNI will be/is building a third. Not rumour, but the plan moving ahead right now. With much of what I have cited already moving on the ground. (Note the bolded word there.)

It amazes me how fast they are moving while WDW keeps moving slow as dirt.

 

[Clever Name]

It amazes me how fast they are moving while WDW keeps moving slow as dirt.

Sounds to me as if WDW needs a landslide of some sort.

 

[WDW1974]

@WDW1974 How about this wildly successful IPO that has allowed SEAS to buy some freedom from BlackStone with certain creative areas? This will surely change the face of several items in the park. A certain line in one of the reports from the company caught my eye.

"We have noticed a positive correlation to attendance and guest spending as a result to capital being spent in parks on new attractions and offerings."

There certainly seems to be a trend with that notion in nearly every other park chain out there besides Disney.

It's just good old common sense in the business ... it's something that Disney schooled the industry (one it created, BTW) in from the 1950s-1990s. Too bad they went with the 90s business school model of 'if it ain't broke, break it and spend absurd sums of money trying to fix the damage you did'. That has been the last 10-15 years.

I think SW is much like UNI in terms of strategy. Build quality and they will come and they will spend and they will tell others, even if you don't have the BRAND ADVOCATES in the social media world that Disney does.

Anyway, I know I owe you a private communication and you'll (hopefully) be getting one soon.

To everyone else, I am outta here for my Faux Top One Percent Spirited Spring Holiday. I hope everyone remains well and enjoys the rest of their springs (not the Disney variety).

I'm sure the current (yes, it has started if Disney thinks you're worth 4-5-6-7 nights of free hotel and tickets, meals and swag) Disney marketing event should give y'all something to chat about this week, followed by soft openings for Transformers at UNI and Anatarctica at SW ... and you can keep track of how long Disney plays 'keep away' with its new Prez and wonder why that would be vs. what he did in Anaheim.

Enjoy ... and I'll see you all a little later as a (hopefully) much more relaxed Spirit ... @Lee -- they're all yours!!!

 

[Clever Name]

I'll try to entertain myself until you get back Spirit.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It amazes me how fast they are moving while WDW keeps moving slow as dirt.

Which brings me to The Princesse Royale Halle (afkaSWSA - Attraction formerly known as Snow White's Scary Adventures)..... Why isnt this done yet? Why isnt this open? Why arent we hearing anything? How long does it take to build a meet & greet?

 

[ChrisFL]

Which brings me to The Princesse Royale Halle (afkaSWSA - Attraction formerly known as Snow White's Scary Adventures)..... Why isnt this done yet? Why isnt this open? Why arent we hearing anything? How long does it take to build a meet & greet?

Apparently more time than it takes to build Transformers at Uni

 

[articos]

Ask Randy Garfield if he was encouraged to "play nice" when Universal lured (stole) all of those sales and marketing execs away from WDW prior to the opening of IOA.

Ironically, Randy was lured from USF and worked on the UIOA initial marketing plans.

 

[alphac2005]

Wall Street has never known how to grow a business. A business leader needs to lead, not watch which way the wind is blowing on Wall Street.

The same Wall Street that now has rumblings about Tim Cook having until the end of the year to get things rolling again at Apple, while they still made $9.5 billion in profit for the quarter and anyone with a miniscule brain knows that to keep up the growth trajectory that Apple had is downright impossible and that it would be nearly impossible to keep up the profit margins that they've had. The same Wall Street that has a P/E ratio on Netflix floating around 735 right now. Yup, that Wall Street. It's all about personal short-term gain without a care to the future. The sad reality is that more of these monsters are controlling the levers of power at major corporations throughout the United States.

While we think of all of the Wall Street money and excess, a report this week came out this week and it found that 46% of NYC residents are working poor. You can't have a country that functions with success with these types of disparities. After a while, it's rather exhausting knowing that in reality, you can do nothing to move the winds, rather, you have to sit back and hope that eventually there will be a correction in the thought process and sanity will return to business, which will in-turn help the greater economy succeed.