Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[WDW1974]

@WDW1974 - do you think ioa and us would sustain their increases if wwohp were broken out from them? I have my doubts. Ioa needed that shot in the arm that was wwohp and I'm not sure it's fully weened.

Ioa still suffers as unappreciated and wwohp has helped it's numbers, but overshadowed ioa's identity. Breaking it out to a third gate would make that even tougher on ioa.

I don't know. I tossed out something I heard in passing. I sorta blew it off at first, but the more I thought about it, the more plausible or possible it became.

There's a reason IOA is going to be getting major expansion to the JP area and a lagoon show. They are looking to pump up the entire park and not make it seem like 'Potter and everything else' ... I think a lot depend on how successful everything winds up being (both Potter 2.0 and everything else).

Tho you comments on pay to play are interesting. If you take a micropayment type approach... Which had proven very successful in scale in online music and apps... People may be willing to pay beyond their gate prices. Keep prices so low the barrier is low, but the frequency is high and you get good money.

But I would have to think Disney would have to think long and hard before they had a 'pay $10 to go front of the line right now'. Psychologically that is very different than a simple pay to play. I don't know if Disney would have the Gaul to cross that line...

I dunno ... but folks have often suggested a going back to ticket books as the answer both for fans in terms of crowds and the company in terms of maximizing the 'value' of each attraction. That gets read in Burbank and Glendale and turned into an a la carte model for the parks (like airlines today) that wouldn't work under the current system, but certainly could under NGE.

 

[OFTeric]

It is interesting. I joined this board in 2008 when everyone on here almost fiercely defended Disney. I remember when if anyone would suggest Universal, you were almost tarred and feathered.

Then I briefly came back in 2010 and it seemed like there was some doubt that began to permeate the boards. People had tried WWOHP... and people still weren't giving up on the mouse.

Now it seems (and it seems this way on almost every WDW discussion board) that we have past the point of no return, where the goodwill the company spent decades building has finally been exhausted.

The company abused my fandom, and Universal won it. And now it seems most other people are in the same boat.

 

[WDW1974]

Interesting point. If Uni initiates a pay to play virtual 3rd gate but only charges a small fee(say $1.99) or something, most people would gladly accept. It could be a tidy little revenue stream with 10 million plus visitors a year that would certainly add up.

Oh, it would in no way be that small.

If they simply took the first option I put out and charged for the train, then you're still looking at a price many times $1.99 ... if you actually turn Potter into a third park within two existing gates, I would guess the 'upcharge' would depend on what type of ticket you were buying to begin with.

 

[disneyflush]

So ... TWDC released 2013 quarter 1 results ...

http://thewaltdisneycompany.com/sites/default/files/reports/q1-fy13-earnings.pdf

... and being that the real world called me, and I had to take the call ... what's the talk?

Was it about the fact that WDW's numbers were allegedly (after they were waterboarded) 'up a hair'? ... What kind of hair? Was it long and luxurious and on top of a gorgeous head? Or was it some unwanted hair ... like on Aunt Martha's mouth when she kisses you?

Is anyone spinning that the four percent P&R increase is not a result of DLR and DCL and higher prices overall and instead due to the mediocre New Fantasyland?

BTW, I'm trying to determine what is Bob Iger's biggest concern right now: NGE at WDW or how Oz will fare at the box office.

Given that almost every decision the company has made in the last few years was done so in an attempt to make the financials as pretty as possible, the days they release their earnings should be their greatest and most magical days of the whole year. Today is Iger's day to be excited getting out of bed and off to work. Hey everyone, please step over those chunks of Splash Mountain and watch us show off these massive piles of money!

 

[tracyandalex]

The sad thing is that most of the people that Disney is targeting with this wouldn't likely even bat an eye at such a question.

I bet my answer got me kicked out of that special group.

 

[KevinYee]

I am one who called for a return to ticket books over the years, I'll admit it.

And I'm not certain that a pricing structure to the parks is a bad idea. Hopefully this doesn't mark me as an elitist, but hear me out.

In Walt's day, you could enjoy the park without spending TOO much on admission. Going on the big attractions meant more money. Going on the smaller attractions meant less money.

In 2015 (to choose a date), they could, if they wanted to, create a world where admission wasn't too much and extra value could be had if you had the money. BUT - and this is a big but - this only makes sense if admission isn't too much.

If they want to keep admission around $90 and then also tack on upcharges for FastPass and so on.... we have left the train station and sanity is far behind us.

If they reduced admission to $25 and charged $5/ride, we'd be back in the land of sanity. $5 in 2011 is 66 cents in 1959 terms (when coupons were created), and in the real 1959, such coupons cost 50 cents individually, or 35 cents when bought in bulk. In other words, Walt would probably view $5/ride for an E-ticket to be expensive in 2013, but not overly so.

The problem is scale. And greed. Today's company doesn't want Walt-sized profits. It wants Wall Street-sized profits. Those are not mutually compatible.

 

[WDW1974]

I think there is a huge psychological barrier to pay to play, in that if you don't pay you are excluded. People hate that... But upgrades?? Up sells?? People pay for those in spades... Especially at the micro level. (Think souviner cup). Now apply that to attractions... Want to play that game portal? .99 cents... Want to see the dynamite blow up? .99. Want to override your default fp+ time? 1.99

Etc

The trick is finding things ( my examples were not that good) that people see as an upgrade and not just something you should have had to start with. Upsell... Not nickle and dime. That's the line you have to dance...

With something like magicband... It really opens up micropayments because you make it so easy to commit the payment

Well, you are quite right about the psychology behind upselling and upgrades ... even with FP, I think there is a significant majority out there who wouldn't balk at paying for FP+ IF they felt they were getting something extra ... (maybe that's the PLUS!)

IF and with Disney ... and UNI, until recently that's a BIG IF ... but if Disney can make it appear as though folks are getting something extra, something they wouldn't have before (like the ability to come in for an unplanned weekend and still get a ride on Soarin, a ride on TT, and a ride on TSMM IF they pay to play) then I think all bets are off.

I (naturally) am viewing things from the critic/skeptic's PoV ... but what if you turn that around and take the Pixie Dust addict's PoV?

 

[xdan0920]

Is Oz tracking that badly? Know my family wants to see it... My brothers mainly want to see it for the witches But obviously we aren't a large sample. I want to see Oz more than I do Lone Ranger though. That being said ill probably see both. It's certainly a risk though not the way I would have called John Carter a risk. At least there is brand recognition and recognizable actors and as my brothers put it so aptly "hot women"

It's still early, but it's not looking good. Production budget for Oz was a min of 200 mill, not taking into account advertising. That is a high mountain to climb to profitability.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I dunno ... but folks have often suggested a going back to ticket books as the answer both for fans in terms of crowds and the company in terms of maximizing the 'value' of each attraction. That gets read in Burbank and Glendale and turned into an a la carte model for the parks (like airlines today) that wouldn't work under the current system, but certainly could under NGE.

I think the average guest for the most part would hate that.
Combining the two most hated business models in the Tourism industry sounds like a bad idea.

 

[asianway]

I don't know. I tossed out something I heard in passing. I sorta blew it off at first, but the more I thought about it, the more plausible or possible it became.

There's a reason IOA is going to be getting major expansion to the JP area and a lagoon show. They are looking to pump up the entire park and not make it seem like 'Potter and everything else' ... I think a lot depend on how successful everything winds up being (both Potter 2.0 and everything else).



I dunno ... but folks have often suggested a going back to ticket books as the answer both for fans in terms of crowds and the company in terms of maximizing the 'value' of each attraction. That gets read in Burbank and Glendale and turned into an a la carte model for the parks (like airlines today) that wouldn't work under the current system, but certainly could under NGE.

I posted this in Merfs FP+ thread on Dis in December, and he said there were no plans to charge, but I dont know...they could charge for FP+, or they could just charge for the privilege of riding.

My apologies if you covered this, I may have missed it. Now that Disney will be able to manipulate - I mean, control the inventory of FP+ behind the scenes, they will to a certain extent be able to drive people where they want them to go. I think were mostly thinking that there are x number of FP per hour for each attraction, and that they will simply take those same FP and spread them out for computer distribution the same way with the choice now being ours of the time rather than the distribution window we stumble upon when we approach the machine.. But, now they will have the ability to save the "good" times for the better guests and only throw out the scraps for the APs. So where there may be 1000 FP+ for the 1pm-2pm window at TOT, only 25 of them may be up for grabs by APs, the rest being held back for the whales. At the same time, the entire pool of Haunted Mansion FP+ for the same time frame is available to all.
Or, even held back for a future pay as you go FP+ system. Oh look, a FP+ just popped up for TOT, tap here to purchase for $5.
These allocations could be controlled on the fly.

 

[WDW1974]

I wonder how many will end up just 'walking away' from their DVC....

Take a look at the resale market.

I am NOT a timeshare person. AT. ALL.

But when I see points at OKW and Vero selling for under $50 and some cases under $40, I start thinking that it might just be worth it.

Why anyone buys DVC from TWDC right now is sorta beyond my comprehension (even though I understand that Disney is making rules more onerous for those who don't buy from them).

But there shouldn't be any choice between say $40 at OKW and $145 at DAK Villas.

 

[WDW1974]

If they could add Shrek, Madagascar, Kung Fu Panda and How to Train Your Dragon attractions to the current Kidzone (I would have also built Despicable Me in Kidzone, but of course it used an existing theatre by replacing Jimmy Neutron), and add Grinch and Lorax to Seussland - then they could have the characters needed to compete with Fantasyland. Of course, there has been talk that the Dreamworks deal was finishing (Shrek removal), so it might not happen, but those 4 Dreamworks franchises could help them compete.

Um ... um ... must keep big mouth shut!

 

[WDW1974]

Tony is one of the great's, and it is sad that WDI has turned into a bad game of office politics.

Yes, but the reality of the situation is that WDI turned about two decades ago ... maybe longer. But things have been incredibly bad since the late 90s.

You have had a string of people there in power that had no business being where they are. Bruce and Craig are just the latest.

 

[asianway]

Take a look at the resale market.

I am NOT a timeshare person. AT. ALL.

But when I see points at OKW and Vero selling for under $50 and some cases under $40, I start thinking that it might just be worth it.

Why anyone buys DVC from TWDC right now is sorta beyond my comprehension (even though I understand that Disney is making rules more onerous for those who don't buy from them).

But there shouldn't be any choice between say $40 at OKW and $145 at DAK Villas.

Especially given the low point cost per night, 2 queen beds, and larger than normal studio rooms.

 

[WDW1974]

How would APs play into this model? Disney is alienating theirs while Universal seems to be doing all they can to please us. As well they should. The APs kept them afloat for at least a year or two pre-Potter.

Hard to say because it's just something that was talked about at this point (unless something has happened behind the scenes that I'm not aware of). My guess would be UNI will continue to value its APers unlike WDW.

 

[WDW1974]

Is Phase 3 the "virtual" 3rd gate, or are you actually talking a third Harry Potter build occurring in the parks?

No, I was talking about a Phase III as well ... there are ideas/thoughts/plans.

 

[WDW1974]

OZ is dead in the water.

They are treating it like this year's John Carter. You can't do that.

This thing should have had hype and marketing from last summer on. Oz is still a known IP ... a well-known one at that.

And this thing has bomb written all over it ...

You can't write off $200 million dollar films annually. Every Marvel and Pixar film is not going to be a huge hit. And even if they are, they can't cover up for those type of losses because they cost a (blank)load of $$$ to make and market.

 

[disney fan 13]

No, I was talking about a Phase III as well ... there are ideas/thoughts/plans.

Hope not, I find the Potter expansion amazing, but a phase III is overkill. I'm also against the up-charge but that's a different story.

 

[Genie of the Lamp]

So @WDW1974 (Mr.Spirit) or @Lee, could one of the factors for Burbank/WDI pushing for Mr.Tony Baxter to leave is simply because he wanted to create another blue ocean(like a one of a kind E-Ticket attraction/land) while the others were simply focusing on strengthening their own internal blue ocean strategy like NGE? Could this possibly be the reason Mr.Baxter finally said enough is enough with WDI simply because his vision/viewpoint/definition of a company being a "blue ocean" innovator (which is the right path) is different than what Iger and the rest of his corporate pawsy/puppetheads define as a "blue ocean" strategy? Now would be a good time for Baxter to write that after life Disney book.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

They are treating it like this year's John Carter. You can't do that.

This thing should have had hype and marketing from last summer on. Oz is still a known IP ... a well-known one at that.

And this thing has bomb written all over it ...

You can't write off $200 million dollar films annually. Every Marvel and Pixar film is not going to be a huge hit. And even if they are, they can't cover up for those type of losses because they cost a (blank)load of $$$ to make and market.

And Maleficent is just 'round the corner.