Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[71jason]

DVC is a prepaid vacation plan. You are paying today for future hotel rooms. If you pay today for something that has future value according to GAAP accounting you have a prepaid asset. So yes, it would be an asset. Check the balance sheet of most companies and you will find something along the lines of prepaid assets. Now what I dont agree with is when I have heard people call buying into DVC an "investment" - Buying in today with the hope that your DVC points will go up in value.

We can parse language all day. It doesn't change the fact that most DVC purchasers, based on the history of the vacation industry, think they are buying something equivalent to a traditional timeshare, not a vacation contract. (I have two friends who bought in at Beach Club last year--one works for an investment house, the other is a $500+ an hour attorney, so they really should know better--who were all excited that now they "own" a piece of Disney.) By using terms like "asset"--or "investment" which is admittedly much, much worse--Disney is subtly trying to reinforce that belief. It may be legal but it sure feels shady.

 

[Bryner84]

... that said, I keep hearing the word 'agenda' tossed around by you and a few others, yet no one EVER puts out what they 'think' my agenda is.

FWIW, I absolutely have an agenda. You are right about that.

I am not at all who this comment is directed at as I have absolutely no involvement in this conversation thus far, but thought I would take a stab at this just for fun. I do love a good conspiracy theory ...alas I am afraid there is little here. You do, admittedly, have an agenda but I think it is actually quite (intentionally) transparent.

Your presence on the board is to consistently present a message that is the antithesis of the controlled, sanitized, official message the company presents. We all know (maybe not all ) the parks have been in a state of decline for some time, and Disney does not want the general public to realize this. You are here to chip away at the pixie dust facade the company puts forth by highlighting the increasingly poor condition of the parks, sometimes using inside information about the way the company operates, and gather support along the way. Your target audience is not the Disney fan who comes to the boards to comment on the beautiful glowing lanterns outside the new Tangled restrooms, but is instead those important people in the company (whom you have referenced on multiple occasions) who consistently check the boards in order to understand (dismiss?) the fan community. In other words, if those in a position to implement change can see that the fan community has half a brain and is outraged at what is going on, they will have no other choice but to begin making improvements to the parks. If this forum were dedicated solely to praising the MAGIC, then Disney would understandably see no reason but to keep operating in its current fashion. Criticizing for the sake of improving is not the same as mindlessly bashing.

Maybe you have some seedy hidden intent, but to me it seems your agenda is clear and hardly malicious.

 

[George]

If you are interested in purchasing, the first rule of DVC is that not all DVCs are created equal. The second rule is that every situation is different.

We bought BCV direct from Disney when it was first offered. Due to a variety of factors, some mentioned above such as the pool, it immediately appreciated in value, even on the resale market. Even now I have never seen a resale price as low as we paid direct from Disney. In fact, for the first few years the resale price increased so much that it was by far my best "investment" since everything else was in decline due to the early-century recession. The resale price had increased so much that if I had sold 4-5 years in, the profit would have covered the maintenance fees so we would have had several years of free deluxe-resort vacations (actually better than deluxe-resort, when compared to the two-bedroom villas we typically got). So I laugh whenever I read opinions from people that declare definitively that DVC is always a bad deal.

However, I do realize that my situation as described above is NOT typical, it was combination of doing my homework first and a fair amount of luck. Looking at direct vs. resale prices today, particularly for the newer resorts, makes buying direct a lousy deal in almost all cases.

By the way Spirit, we too have eyed those 3 bedroom beach cottages at Vero, and the low resale prices. What always stops us is that maintenance fees at Vero are much higher than at any of the other resorts, or the resale contracts with subsidized fees don't have the really low resale prices.

Cool. When I bought there was no comparison. The resale was much cheaper. The BCV points were also purchased right before the got rid of the exchange program (the one with RCI or whatever) for resale buyers (or limited severely limited it), which should also be taken into account if purchasing today. BCV do hold value...BLT also looks like they made hold their value as well (based on random scanning of Timeshare Store prices from time to time). On a side note, when you buy resale Disney can refuse if they think the price is too low. They seem somewhat inconsistent in this. Based on my experience they may refuse once or twice at a certain price point, but then voila, you'll have a sale. My guess is that it is based on how much stock they have, etc. Or maybe they have me in the system as a pushy weirdo that they might as well sate from time to time. :lookaroun

 

[George]

I am not at all who this comment is directed at as I have absolutely no involvement in this conversation thus far, but thought I would take a stab at this just for fun. I do love a good conspiracy theory ...alas I am afraid there is little here. You do, admittedly, have an agenda but I think it is actually quite (intentionally) transparent.

Your presence on the board is to consistently present a message that is the antithesis of the controlled, sanitized, official message the company presents. We all know (maybe not all ) the parks have been in a state of decline for some time, and Disney does not want the general public to realize this. You are here to chip away at the pixie dust facade the company puts forth by highlighting the increasingly poor condition of the parks, sometimes using inside information about the way the company operates, and gather support along the way. Your target audience is not the Disney fan who comes to the boards to comment on the beautiful glowing lanterns outside the new Tangled restrooms, but is instead those important people in the company (whom you have referenced on multiple occasions) who consistently check the boards in order to understand (dismiss?) the fan community. In other words, if those in a position to implement change can see that the fan community has half a brain and is outraged at what is going on, they will have no other choice but to begin making improvements to the parks. If this forum were dedicated solely to praising the MAGIC, then Disney would understandably see no reason but to keep operating in its current fashion. Criticizing for the sake of improving is not the same as mindlessly bashing.

Maybe you have some seedy hidden intent, but to me it seems your agenda is clear and hardly malicious.

Great post. I think the "agenda" is incredibly obvious as well. Maybe, I'm missing something. My guess is some don't like his posting style since many have the same views, but don't get near the attention. Personally, no one on magic has ever bothered me. The thing I've always liked about magic is the back and forth and the debate. It is why when I first discovered Disney forums on the internetz one bored day back in 2003, I immediately liked this one the best.

 

[alphac2005]

Don't forget that ESPN is so important to TWDC because thus far Sports content seems to be the one variety of content that is still watched live making it far more valuable from the commercial ad space perspective. Sports programming is rapidly becoming the last bastion of traditional broadcast media although I do agree that they will not be able to maintain the high carriage fees forever. I think that TWDC is more interested in content production rather than broadcast (other than ESPN). Eventually through initiatives like Ultraviolet and the content deal they signed with Netflix they'll still see money coming in without the need for the current carriage fees model.

I too hope that P&R's worth becomes apparent to management. Of course they'll have given Comcast a huge head start in the public eye/mind share department by that time.

Well put, but the Netflix deal simply replaces their Starz deal, although they're obviously getting a larger sum from Netflix, but that's also due to this being the replacement of an long-term deal. The cash cow is the carriage fees, though. In a lot of ways, it's just like Microsoft with Windows and Office. They are legacy products that bring in constant profit to the company no matter how little, or much they innovate..... Microsoft is dealing with plummeting PC sales and mobile devices that are choosing to not use their software along with businesses going to different platforms and/or not replacing their Microsoft software nearly as frequently.

The legacy product for Disney is the carriage fees and it's going to be really hard to replicate that kind of money that they bring in by other mediums. Take the music business, for the first time in a decade, sales went up.... by .1%, but at least an improvement. Here is where the carriage fees come in to play. Although music sales have finally bottomed out, the overall dollar sales of the industry have plummeted and even with the availability of countless digital music platforms, they pale in comparison to their prior core business model, and that's what you have with the current cable model and what will happen when it unravels.

LIVE is the only broadcast standard that continues to have a lasting appeal in terms of long term draws to a particular network because of that ability. One of the key reasons for HDNET being re-branded (although not fully revamped) to AXS.TV is because Mark Cuban sees that LIVE works and you must offer live programming to go with the instant world of Twitter, FB, etc., and they now offer a large variety of live concerts, which is quite cool. Not only is it cool, but they're offering a premium style piece of content that you can only get in that format with the volume that they're producing.

 

[MattM]

We can parse language all day. It doesn't change the fact that most DVC purchasers, based on the history of the vacation industry, think they are buying something equivalent to a traditional timeshare, not a vacation contract. (I have two friends who bought in at Beach Club last year--one works for an investment house, the other is a $500+ an hour attorney, so they really should know better--who were all excited that now they "own" a piece of Disney.) By using terms like "asset"--or "investment" which is admittedly much, much worse--Disney is subtly trying to reinforce that belief. It may be legal but it sure feels shady.

Your friends probably didn't really care if it was an investment or not. If they are in those industries, they most likely have the discretionary income to "blow" on something like DVC. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that! They see it as a place they can spend time with their families, and in that sense it is a good "investment."

But you are right, having the presentation refer to DVC as an investment is just wrong and prays on the magical masses (on the cruise they even tried to compare it to a portfolio of stocks...granted, I had had a few drinks but I walked away with a headache trying to follow that logic).

 

[Genie of the Lamp]

Here's a Tony Baxter related finding written 2 days ago. I found this article on Mouse Planet written by Jim Kronkis describing the relationship between Tony and Walt:
http://www.mouseplanet.com/10252/Tony_Baxter_and_Walt_Disney
Scroll down to about the middle of the page and start at when Walt visiting the park every weekend.

Edit: Countdown to DIS Shareholders meeting in Phoenix: 5 days

 

[Pentacat]

Here's a Tony Baxter related finding written 2 days ago. I found this article on Mouse Planet written by Jim Kronkis describing the relationship between Tony and Walt:
http://www.mouseplanet.com/10252/Tony_Baxter_and_Walt_Disney
Scroll down to about the middle of the page and start at when Walt visiting the park every weekend.

It's so sad that he's been sidelined over the years for petty business politics and now has been run out completely. How many long time park employees like him are left?

 

[Genie of the Lamp]

It's so sad that he's been sidelined over the years for petty business politics and now has been run out completely. How many long time park employees like him are left?

Very few to none. Although, I have high hopes for newcomer Michel Den Dulk (a Baxter found prodigy) and hope that he's given enough oppourtunities on projects the way Baxter should've had access to.

 

[71jason]

Your friends probably didn't really care if it was an investment or not. If they are in those industries, they most likely have the discretionary income to "blow" on something like DVC. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that! They see it as a place they can spend time with their families, and in that sense it is a good "investment."

But you are right, having the presentation refer to DVC as an investment is just wrong and prays on the magical masses (on the cruise they even tried to compare it to a portfolio of stocks...granted, I had had a few drinks but I walked away with a headache trying to follow that logic).

I agree, they aren't hurting for money. But if two highly educated people--one a practicing attorney no less--can sit through a DVC presentation and not pick up that it's decidedly not time share, then yeah, I can only imagine tipsy Pixie Dusters on a cruise being convinced this is the equivalent of a mutual fund with mouse ears or something.

 

[WKR22]

There is only one reason why you should buy DVC points direct from Disney, you need the points instantly for vacation. Otherwise it is overpriced

 

[rael ramone]

Here's a little something about online privacy and the government:

http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/rockefeller-re-introduces-do-not-track-act-147610

Here's a snippet from that article that interested me (bold & italics mine):

The bill would create a universal legal obligation for all online companies to honor a consumer's choice to not have information collected about his or her Web activities. Companies would be allowed to collect information necessary for a website or online service to function, but they would be required to destroy or anonymize the data when it is no longer needed. The Federal Trade Commission would be given the authority to enforce the law.

Isn't the loophole that they are trying to use to track the kiddies is that 'they can do it if it's needed for the overall program to function'?

 

[TinkerBell9988]

I know this is the type of post that will leave all the techies (who don't care whether the government or Big Business can track them, who think Twitter is the greatest thing since sliced bread, who would rather get their news from blogs than the New York Times or CBS, who are always looking at a screen except when sleeping -- even when driving etc) with their undies riding up ... BUT ... Disney has always been about being unique and special and NOT giving into the LCD.

That was how they became the greatest family entertainment company. That was how everything from talking cartoons to full length animation to DL to Audio Animatronics to WDW etc etc were created. It wasn't by giving in and giving people what they wanted.

It was saying 'You don't know what you want, we're going to blow your mind with something you never had a clue was possible.'

Now ... it seems to me that Disney is saying we know our parks are stale and tied and we know we could change that with expensive new attractions, constantly updating parades and live entertainment, even offering new merchandise (I almost drooled like a fanboi in Tony Baxter's presence while looking at TDL's 30th Anniversary merchandise) but instead we'll just give you a reason to constantly be playing with your iPhone or iPad. Who cares if you actually experience the parks, so long as you can get carpal tunnel while walking into people or walls or bodies of water?

You do NOT need any phone or tablet to enjoy a quality theme park. It's all about escaping from the real world, right? How exactly does an app take you into Colonial America or on an African safari or under the sea with the Little Mermaid?

It's Disney doing the easiest thing (beyond any of the other aspects we've talked about here).

Bolded for emphasis. Amen.

 

[wm49rs]

Let's stick to facts.

1. It appears profiles may be seen in a small subset of users.
2. It appears dining reservations could be changed or cancelled by a very small group of people.

They have issue to fix and they should do so.

Unfortunately, neither 1 or 2 are facts.

But your last statement certainly applies as one....

 

[tracyandalex]

Is there a way to see what changes have been made to another person's reservations and possibly correct them? If there is a way, I wonder if it is actually being done. I don't mean when someone calls and complains, I mean for some one who has not checked their plans for a while and may not know that they have been changed.

On a side note I had my daughter appear and disappear from my account twice today!

 

[tracyandalex]

If people are reading this forum with some kind of journalistic expectation (the word "Rumor" is in the title after all) then I would say that's the fault of the reader and not the author. The context or expectation should be established based purely on the forum title. Of course there are people that don't recognize context, you can't teach someone critical thinking after all.

I do agree with you about teaching critical thinking, but universities are currently looking into doing just that. It's actually a little bit of a hot topic right now.

 

[TinkerBell9988]

One last note, but Disney is having webcasts for DVC this week. What's interesting is there is not a mention (or even a shot) of the Grand Flo and the Villas going up there. And just quick glimpses of Kidani Village and Aulani.

The 18 minutes focuses largely on OKW, Vero, VWL and Treehouses. I can't help, but believe the first two are being focused on because you can buy points on the resale market for as little as $40 right now (maybe even lower). Naturally, Disney wants you to buy from them for 3-4 times as much. I'm sorry, but there is no other reason that makes sense. As to the VWL, I know they are very popular. But I also know that they are 13 years old and haven't had a top to bottom renovation yet. And since SS is currently getting a 'soft good' renovation, and all the WL hotel rooms were recently done from top to bottom, one might assume that it's going to be a while before that happens. So, popularity there may be dropping quickly.

What else from the webcast?

They have a 'deal' going on at AKV, Aulani, BW (yes!), and BLT (yes!)

If you buy 100 points, then you get two WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $500 off purchase;
If you buy 160 points, then you get three WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $1,000 off purchase;
If you buy 220 points, then you get four WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $1,500 off purchase; and
If you buy 320 points, then you get five WDW 5-day MYW tix w/ PH and $2,000 off purchase.

Seems like DVC is a bit desperate to get rid of inventory at older resorts, including some (like BW and BLT) that we were all told have been sold out for many, many years and how impossible it is to get them except on outside resale market.

Interesting. Thanks for posting.

What boggles me is how I can't get a reservation for BWV for any weekend from now til September... WTH?? But they always offer me SS, of course... and OKW. Sometimes AKL,which I don't mind because I love it there. Frustrates me to no end when I end up staying at the other resorts that are not my "home" resorts (BW and BC), and I park at BW or BC and there are empty parking spots everywhere and the resorts are dead.

Also, the offer above doesn't even apply to me because I am an AP (don't know if thats a good thing or a bad thing anymore... Sigh).

 

[HMF]

Here's a little something about online privacy and the government:

http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/rockefeller-re-introduces-do-not-track-act-147610

Coincidence?

 

[RSoxNo1]

I think you misunderstood someone. IDs for these things would be in the millions to billions of combinations.. not just a few thousand. A simple 4 bytes is 4.2 billion combinations.

Thanks for the clarification, and my apologies for misleading anyone.

 

[stlphil]

Cool. When I bought there was no comparison. The resale was much cheaper. The BCV points were also purchased right before the got rid of the exchange program (the one with RCI or whatever) for resale buyers (or limited severely limited it), which should also be taken into account if purchasing today. BCV do hold value...BLT also looks like they made hold their value as well (based on random scanning of Timeshare Store prices from time to time). On a side note, when you buy resale Disney can refuse if they think the price is too low. They seem somewhat inconsistent in this. Based on my experience they may refuse once or twice at a certain price point, but then voila, you'll have a sale. My guess is that it is based on how much stock they have, etc. Or maybe they have me in the system as a pushy weirdo that they might as well sate from time to time. :lookaroun

Yes, we are fortunate that BCV hold their value so well.

Disney was much more aggressive (and consistent) with Right of First Refusal years ago than they are today. That is a big part of the reason that my potential sale price of my BCV contract went up so much, and that the price difference between resale and direct was much less than it is today. Toward the end of the Jim Lewis regime at DVD they cut way back on ROFL leading in large part to the price disparity you see today, but BCV has still held up well despite this. I suspect, but don't know with any certainty, that the reason they cut back on ROFR was that they had a glut of inventory of the older resorts due to foreclosures related to the recession. Of course all resorts will eventually lose all their value as the contract end-date gets closer.

I'm glad you were able to get your resale before they started the restrictions on the use of resale points.