Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[dhall]

I hesitate to respond to this because this gets us off topic yet again ... but I'd like to know just what kind of credential a so-called 'Disney insider' (something that I have been labeled, but I don't like to use myself) would have? Do you think we have cards signed by all the folks at Disney who slip us info? Do we have secret LE pins that were given to us by Roy Disney? Do we have Meg Crofton signed bobbleheads? @Lee even has the more valuable Erin Youngs bobblehead.

All you have to do with any of us 'insiders' is judge us on our track records and the perspective and history and knowledge we bring. I know I am not right all the time -- and I've been very upfront in my lack of tech knowledge (although not that of my sources). But I am right far more than I am not and I know that I put information, factual information, out before anyone else. If I didn't, then I'd likely have been run off from the Disney fan community years before I ever joined this site.

I'm somewhat hesitant, too, but here goes. We can take it offline if we need to go any farther.

On a message board that trades on inside information provided by persons with anonymous sources, any attempt to tie information to specific people should be immediately deemed out of bounds.

In a heated discussion, you attempted to tie the persona of your antagonist to a real world identity and attempted to impute motives based on that presumed identity. Saying that flynn's arguments should discounted because he's obviously got a technical backgrond is fine, but saying that his arguments should be discounted because he's a specific person with a specific role at a specific company is taking it too far in a forum where most of us maintain at least some modicum of anonymity.

Lee's message, to which I responded, implied that flynn should've disclosed his connections to the project, however remote they may be, as a precondition to his defending it. I don't believe that's appropriate, and it feels somewhat ironic that such an expectation comes from one of the more valued sources of inside information.

I have direct knowledge of some of the technologies under discussion that comes from having helped to develop similar technologies, and indirect knowledge of many of the other technologies that comes from working in related areas. I'm actually very happy to be able to share that knowledge on this board, having enjoyed reading the inside information shared by you and several others over nearly all of this forum's existence. It's really cool to have stuff to contribute for a change. I don't feel like I should have to get any more specific than I already have in order to satisfy anyone on one side of the argument or the other as a precondition for my participation.

But just because people have tech knowledge that I -- and many others who don't work in tech fields -- lack, doesn't make their OPINIONS regarding the value of NGE/MM+ anymore valuable.

While I think there's some value in knowing the difference between money well invested in technical projects and money wasted on stupid technical projects, you're perfectly free to discount his opinion or mine on the basis of our perceived bias. We're all entitled to opinions as to the relative value of technical investement vs. other types of investment. And yes, those of us with technical backgrounds will likely cut them more slack when they invest in technology, in general, but I think I'm in a better position than many to determine if what they're investing in makes any sense from a technical perspective.

As far as this whole project goes, I think the network infrastructure for the wifi access is a very necessary investment, and is being made at a fairly appropriate time. The money being spent on integrating all the back office systems is money they should've spent years ago -- this stuff basically is a Phase II project for IT. Better late than never, in this case.

The magic bands & reservations system are ludicrous nonsense that never should've seen the light of day. I've maintained throughout these past few weeks that the single biggest screw-up related to this project is that they made any part of it public to begin with. If we'd never heard the phrase 'NextGen', and they'd spent the money just as they have without the bands & reservations, spending the balance on just one attraction (because I really believe that's about all it would've paid for), I don't believe that anyone would be complaining. What we would've seen was 1) one potentially cool new ride (subject to heated online debate, no doubt), 2) free wi-fi access across the property, 3) what looks like an interest in improving the maintenance (seeing as all the buildings just got refurbished over a fairly short period) and 4) a couple of disney branded smart phone apps with information that we're currently getting less frequently from third parties.

It's pretty obvious that someone who has spent a lifetime working in tech is going to lean toward loving this or 'giving it the benefit of the doubt' than those of us who already find technology and tracking waaaaay too intrusive in the USA.

And, no, just because that train has left the station doesn't mean the government can't slow it down or put up safety checkpoints along its route.

That doesn't seem so obvious to me. For what its worth, I generally agree with you very strongly in most all of your remarks about the state of the nation and our culture as a whole, and the state of the Orlando parks specifically. I believe WalMart should become a verb, used to describe the process of degrading quality that can be done by the poorly informed in large groups. I've been going to those parks for as long as you have (longer, if 74 was when you first visited) and have very similar observations regarding the loss of quality and value over the years.

I've seen a fair number of examples of companies using these technologies in ways that really do improve their service to me, either through better identifying my needs or better controlling their costs and thus my price. However, knowing what I know about how companies can use this information makes me strongly hope that the government does step in and strengthen the privacy regulations -- I'd like to see the US move much closer to the European model. Heck, I'd like to see us lead the world in protecting the privacy rights of the individual. My employers will still be able to sell plenty of software.

 

[HMF]

Nope. I'm not sure one has been determined as of yet.

I hope it's soon. It would be nice to have good news for a change.

 

[Pentacat]

Pardon my ignorance, but hasn't Disney always been a media company that happened to own some theme parks?

Of course they have but the focus on media acquisitions has definitely caused a kind of inequality within the company between those business groups. Go back and look at some of TWDC's own financial statements. For example in 1999 the Operating Income of Media was only around $200 million higher than the P&R group. Last year the Media group's OI was more than triple that of P&R.

 

[Longhairbear]

One last note, but Disney is having webcasts for DVC this week. What's interesting is there is not a mention (or even a shot) of the Grand Flo and the Villas going up there. And just quick glimpses of Kidani Village and Aulani.

The 18 minutes focuses largely on OKW, Vero, VWL and Treehouses. I can't help, but believe the first two are being focused on because you can buy points on the resale market for as little as $40 right now (maybe even lower). Naturally, Disney wants you to buy from them for 3-4 times as much. I'm sorry, but there is no other reason that makes sense. As to the VWL, I know they are very popular. But I also know that they are 13 years old and haven't had a top to bottom renovation yet. And since SS is currently getting a 'soft good' renovation, and all the WL hotel rooms were recently done from top to bottom, one might assume that it's going to be a while before that happens. So, popularity there may be dropping quickly.

What else from the webcast?

They have a 'deal' going on at AKV, Aulani, BW (yes!), and BLT (yes!)

If you buy 100 points, then you get two WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $500 off purchase;
If you buy 160 points, then you get three WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $1,000 off purchase;
If you buy 220 points, then you get four WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $1,500 off purchase; and
If you buy 320 points, then you get five WDW 5-day MYW tix w/ PH and $2,000 off purchase.

Seems like DVC is a bit desperate to get rid of inventory at older resorts, including some (like BW and BLT) that we were all told have been sold out for many, many years and how impossible it is to get them except on outside resale market.

Coming from a DVC lover, this info is interesting. I thought BW had sold out when I bought WL back in 2003. I didn't watch the webcast, altho I knew about it through snail mail, and email. I'm not sure BLT has sold out yet, but I don't follow all that news close enough to know for certain. It looks like DVC is selling off it's CRO inventory, or perhaps dumping their own resales.

 

[flynnibus]

I could be mistaken, but this would be a better explanation for the lock set analogy made several pages ago. To encrypt an RFID key is it more cost effective to have say 1000 different encryption combinations than 28000? So your key would open your room and 28 other rooms around property? If I'm wrong, my apologies but it was my understanding of these sorts of things.

I think you misunderstood someone. IDs for these things would be in the millions to billions of combinations.. not just a few thousand. A simple 4 bytes is 4.2 billion combinations.

 

[Alektronic]

If anyone is interested, all of the Wi-Fi and NexGen stuff is all being handled by outside contractors so Disney is dependent on them getting things right.

Wi-Fi is being installed and maintained by Crown Castle

NexGen is being engineered by Synapse and they are providing all the hardware also.

 

[Clever Name]

If anyone is interested, all of the Wi-Fi and NexGen stuff is all being handled by outside contractors so Disney is dependent on them getting things right.

Wi-Fi is being installed and maintained by Crown Castle

NexGen is being engineered by Synapse and they are providing all the hardware also.

Thanks. I think in all the hubbub a lot of the basics were left on the side of the road.

 

[WDW1974]

I think that positioning is more about 1. Creating a class difference within the DVC 'classic' and new premium properties i.e. GFV. And 2. By creating some demand for the 'classic' properties they will buy more points at ROFR and resell them at 2x the cost.

They should be offering even bigger deals on the classics if they want to slow the resale market.

Could be. ... I was just VERY surprised. You wouldn't have really know any of the newer resorts existed (Treehouses, after all, have been there since the 70s which they point out -- even if these are entirely new as of 2009).

Despite family owning DVC, I never have had a attraction. It never comes close to being a 'value' for me. That said, when I started seeing prices in the $35-55 range at VB and OKW, I had to think about it. I still sorta am. But I won't ever consider buying from Disney.

It was a very interesting infomercial.

 

[WDW1974]

Our C&P cards came in real handy when traveling abroad, but as you can see, the options are limited.

We ended up going with the Hyatt Visa, largely because we stay at Hyatts fairly regularly and didn't have a hotel card.

Bouncing to another topic... @WDW1974, do you have a link to the TDR 30th merchandise?

Ah, another Hyatt fan. I didn't realize how close you were to Top 1%, Tom. All that travel should have given you away.

Oh ... and check your email!

 

[WDW1974]

I could be wrong, but the webcast and deals for DVC are for add-ons for existing members not the general public. There are and always have been a limited number of points available for all DVC resorts due to right of first refusal and foreclosures on Disney financed DVC points. I only know this from researching the market before buying. Just for the record I have never written a book on Timeshares or DVC and I don't work for a company that is or will potentially profit from DVC sales

You are wrong.

I most definitely am not an owner and this is the third one I've watched. The last was for Kidani exclusively and hosted by Samantha Brown.

And they are clearly looking for newbies with this deal.

 

[WDW1974]

Coming from a DVC lover, this info is interesting. I thought BW had sold out when I bought WL back in 2003. I didn't watch the webcast, altho I knew about it through snail mail, and email. I'm not sure BLT has sold out yet, but I don't follow all that news close enough to know for certain. It looks like DVC is selling off it's CRO inventory, or perhaps dumping their own resales.

BLT definitely was considered sold out a few years ago. Took MUCH longer than expected (as will Grand Flo). I am reasonably sure this is a selling off foreclosures and resales etc. except for resorts like Aulani and Kidani that aren't close to sold out. I am guessing that there's far more inventory for older resorts floating around.

I admit that three bedroom beach cottage at Vero is something my family is looking heavily at on the resale market.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

And they are clearly looking for newbies with this deal.

So they can visit SW/UNI/BGT Kennedy Space Center?

 

[WDW1974]

Here's a little something about online privacy and the government:

http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/rockefeller-re-introduces-do-not-track-act-147610

 

[George]

One last note, but Disney is having webcasts for DVC this week. What's interesting is there is not a mention (or even a shot) of the Grand Flo and the Villas going up there. And just quick glimpses of Kidani Village and Aulani.

The 18 minutes focuses largely on OKW, Vero, VWL and Treehouses. I can't help, but believe the first two are being focused on because you can buy points on the resale market for as little as $40 right now (maybe even lower). Naturally, Disney wants you to buy from them for 3-4 times as much. I'm sorry, but there is no other reason that makes sense. As to the VWL, I know they are very popular. But I also know that they are 13 years old and haven't had a top to bottom renovation yet. And since SS is currently getting a 'soft good' renovation, and all the WL hotel rooms were recently done from top to bottom, one might assume that it's going to be a while before that happens. So, popularity there may be dropping quickly.

What else from the webcast?

They have a 'deal' going on at AKV, Aulani, BW (yes!), and BLT (yes!)

If you buy 100 points, then you get two WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $500 off purchase;
If you buy 160 points, then you get three WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $1,000 off purchase;
If you buy 220 points, then you get four WDW 5-day MYW tix w/PH and $1,500 off purchase; and
If you buy 320 points, then you get five WDW 5-day MYW tix w/ PH and $2,000 off purchase.

Seems like DVC is a bit desperate to get rid of inventory at older resorts, including some (like BW and BLT) that we were all told have been sold out for many, many years and how impossible it is to get them except on outside resale market.

I didn't see this mentioned outright and I don't know if everyone knows it, but you've always been able to buy old inventory from DVC. I bought 200 points at VWL about six years ago and 100 points at Beach Club about 3 years ago. Both times it was resale. Both times I contacted Disney and was told $100-$105/pt and both times I spent $70-$75/pt. You can also get a really good idea of what people are keeping/dumping just by monitoring the Timeshare Store from time to time.

I think that positioning is more about 1. Creating a class difference within the DVC 'classic' and new premium properties i.e. GFV. And 2. By creating some demand for the 'classic' properties they will buy more points at ROFR and resell them at 2x the cost.

They should be offering even bigger deals on the classics if they want to slow the resale market.

See my numbers above. I would never buy points from Disney. Hell, I now own at BCV which is the hardest DVC to get a ressie for since there are few units and the pool is awesome. I've rented points and used them for family reunions. I spreadsheeted the whole deal out and without renting any points you essentially get "deluxe lodging" at a price that is a little less per night that what you would typically pay for "moderate". There are a LOT of variables here so someone could find examples of a worse deal or better deal, I'm just providing a summary of an extremely retentive analysis done by a husband/wife, physical/analytical chemist team. If you rent 40-50% of your points (also dependent on a number of variables) you can essentially break even and not pay for lodging at all (we assumed inflationary increases for maintenance fees and room rates, etc.). BTW, don't ever rent points through a third party, they'll skim way too much off the top. We just rent to friends here in central Indiana and due to my Florida heritage I'm viewed as the Giant Theme Parks of Orlando Expert (GTPoOE) anyway, so that makes it easy. If you do rent to a stranger just let them know that you'll punch them in the face if they damage the unit. I was told this is legal.*

* - Not really

 

[wannab@dis]

You know, I don't have anyone (even my old pal, JT) on ignore. You have been very close for years. You never seem to post a damn thing in any thread I'm involved in that others might not construe as an attack on me ... that said, I keep hearing the word 'agenda' tossed around by you and a few others, yet no one EVER puts out what they 'think' my agenda is. Either tell the class what my agenda -- in your not so humble opinion -- is or sit the hell down and find something of value to post about.

FWIW, I absolutely have an agenda. You are right about that.

Ahh... poor thing is upset. Must be worried some are starting to see through the cracks. If you don't like what I post, ignore me. But I know you won't. You're concerned my posts will eventually make people realize the truth.

 

[alphac2005]

Of course they have but the focus on media acquisitions has definitely caused a kind of inequality within the company between those business groups. Go back and look at some of TWDC's own financial statements. For example in 1999 the Operating Income of Media was only around $200 million higher than the P&R group. Last year the Media group's OI was more than triple that of P&R.

Here's where the future becomes very interesting for the company and having spent time in the media industry in the past, I find it to be intriguing. Back when the Parks and Resorts segment was covering either losses in the feature film or slowness in consumer products, it had a much higher value in terms of percentage of profit for the company. The company today (as you've noted) has media (zeroing in, cable/satellite programming) as the strongest segment and biggest money maker. One key difference of the company today versus the past is that although divisions such as P&R & consumer products don't bring in the highest portions to the company, they're all highly profitable. Outside of their interactive division, which has been a constant sore spot for the company the past decade and a half, most all of the core divisions run well and make the Street happy.

Long-term, though, it'll be interesting. P&R always will be a high earner, but when you look at the indifference towards Orlando and trying to milk the cow until it is bone dry, is that really the wisest? Here's my point: The core driving factor for high income in the media division is the carriage costs of Disney programming and most notably the ESPN family of channels. Media fragmentation is happening at a rate much quicker than had been anticipated by many in the media business and when we look back in a decade or so, at some point here will be their own music industry collapse of revenue moment. The carriage rate situation is fully dependent upon bundling of channels and packages, but we know that the consumer is rapidly changing. Whether it's abandoning cable, satellite, FIOS/U-verse, etc. and moving to OTA (Over the air), Netflix, Hulu, Roku, along with Bluray, it's rapidly evolving and extremely worrisome to the cable channel operators both the system operators and content providers. Later this year, Intel will introduce their streaming television box. It'll bundle some channels, but what the aim of this (along with many other operators new bundles) are to offer consumers not necessarily ala carte, yet, but rather channel options that omit the big costs from those content providers and therefore save the consumer. Who's the biggest cost on any provider's channel list? ESPN.The last analysis a few months back brings the numbers in at around $5.85/mo. for ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNNEWS, + (1) other ESPN branded channel. That's the wholesale cost, not the consumer side.

I was at a conference shortly before Ted Turner got out of the business and it was Ted Turner and John Malone (Liberty Media) being interview by Larry King and all the talk was of the 500 channel future of television and how it would provide customers for life that would be so in love with their operator (cable/sat) that they'd keep on paying because it would be too much wonderful content to every give up. Fast forward and that notion is not only antiquated, but laughable.

Herein lies the big problem for a company like Disney, their reliance is on the cable portfolio and the cash cow that is ESPN and its carriage fees will not last forever. This also doesn't even delve into the issue of ever weaker OTA broadcast channels (ABC for them) and the impact of greater costs and less operating profit (or loss) for ABC. So, Disney has one part of the media division that is a dying breed and the second that can't continue to keep their margins with the changing media. So, where does that leave things? One day, the parks very well may rear their head as the most important, or CONSISTENT, profit center of the company and that's where the in essence abandoning of the Florida property for draining what's left out of it isn't so brilliant long-term.

 

[wannab@dis]

What have I made up ? Please, tell me ... beyond my obvious to even two of my 'haters' brigade sarcastic example of what could be done ...

And I can tell you for a fact (again if you choose to be ignorant, then that is on you!) that if you can pull up someone's complete reservation info (and you can), that you can also modify and or cancel it. You don't have access to your ressies, so you can sit and admire them on a screen, wannabe.

Let's be clear about your "reservation" term. I think you're being purposefully vague to keep the exaggeration going. If you're talking solely about dining, then I would agree. There is an issue that needs to be fixed. I would be annoyed if a meal were changed or cancelled. But it wouldn't affect me financially. You can't even book most reservations because so many require a CC. They make you re-enter it each time. Again, no financial issues.

If you're implying room reservations can be modified in the app, I don't believe that to be accurate. My ROOM reservations could not be updated in the app. Changes could not be made that would affect any finances. I didn't see a way to cancel room reservations. But, I wasn't really looking for a way to cancel at the time, so I could have missed something.

Let's stick to facts.

1. It appears profiles may be seen in a small subset of users. PROBLEM, fix it.
2. It appears dining reservations could be changed or cancelled by a very small group of people. PROBLEM, fix it.

They have issue to fix and they should do so.

 

[wannab@dis]

I am possibly dealing with it....right now. Waiting on the person to call me back as to why her reservation was mysteriously cancelled. The system wouldnt just cancel a reservation for no reason. She isnt in the 45 day window so it makes no sense. I am waiting for a return phone call after she speaks with DIsney.

So what was the reason?

 

[Pentacat]

Herein lies the big problem for a company like Disney, their reliance is on the cable portfolio and the cash cow that is ESPN and its carriage fees will not last forever. This also doesn't even delve into the issue of ever weaker OTA broadcast channels (ABC for them) and the impact of greater costs and less operating profit (or loss) for ABC. So, Disney has one part of the media division that is a dying breed and the second that can't continue to keep their margins with the changing media. So, where does that leave things? One day, the parks very well may rear their head as the most important, or CONSISTENT, profit center of the company and that's where the in essence abandoning of the Florida property for draining what's left out of it isn't so brilliant long-term.

Don't forget that ESPN is so important to TWDC because thus far Sports content seems to be the one variety of content that is still watched live making it far more valuable from the commercial ad space perspective. Sports programming is rapidly becoming the last bastion of traditional broadcast media although I do agree that they will not be able to maintain the high carriage fees forever. I think that TWDC is more interested in content production rather than broadcast (other than ESPN). Eventually through initiatives like Ultraviolet and the content deal they signed with Netflix they'll still see money coming in without the need for the current carriage fees model.

I too hope that P&R's worth becomes apparent to management. Of course they'll have given Comcast a huge head start in the public eye/mind share department by that time.

 

[stlphil]

I didn't see this mentioned outright and I don't know if everyone knows it, but you've always been able to buy old inventory from DVC. I bought 200 points at VWL about six years ago and 100 points at Beach Club about 3 years ago. Both times it was resale. Both times I contacted Disney and was told $100-$105/pt and both times I spent $70-$75/pt. You can also get a really good idea of what people are keeping/dumping just by monitoring the Timeshare Store from time to time.



See my numbers above. I would never buy points from Disney. Hell, I now own at BCV which is the hardest DVC to get a ressie for since there are few units and the pool is awesome. I've rented points and used them for family reunions. I spreadsheeted the whole deal out and without renting any points you essentially get "deluxe lodging" at a price that is a little less per night that what you would typically pay for "moderate". There are a LOT of variables here so someone could find examples of a worse deal or better deal, I'm just providing a summary of an extremely retentive analysis done by a husband/wife, physical/analytical chemist team. If you rent 40-50% of your points (also dependent on a number of variables) you can essentially break even and not pay for lodging at all (we assumed inflationary increases for maintenance fees and room rates, etc.). BTW, don't ever rent points through a third party, they'll skim way too much off the top. We just rent to friends here in central Indiana and due to my Florida heritage I'm viewed as the Giant Theme Parks of Orlando Expert (GTPoOE) anyway, so that makes it easy. If you do rent to a stranger just let them know that you'll punch them in the face if they damage the unit. I was told this is legal.*

* - Not really

If you are interested in purchasing, the first rule of DVC is that not all DVCs are created equal. The second rule is that every situation is different.

We bought BCV direct from Disney when it was first offered. Due to a variety of factors, some mentioned above such as the pool, it immediately appreciated in value, even on the resale market. Even now I have never seen a resale price as low as we paid direct from Disney. In fact, for the first few years the resale price increased so much that it was by far my best "investment" since everything else was in decline due to the early-century recession. The resale price had increased so much that if I had sold 4-5 years in, the profit would have covered the maintenance fees so we would have had several years of free deluxe-resort vacations (actually better than deluxe-resort, when compared to the two-bedroom villas we typically got). So I laugh whenever I read opinions from people that declare definitively that DVC is always a bad deal.

However, I do realize that my situation as described above is NOT typical, it was combination of doing my homework first and a fair amount of luck. Looking at direct vs. resale prices today, particularly for the newer resorts, makes buying direct a lousy deal in almost all cases.

By the way Spirit, we too have eyed those 3 bedroom beach cottages at Vero, and the low resale prices. What always stops us is that maintenance fees at Vero are much higher than at any of the other resorts, or the resale contracts with subsidized fees don't have the really low resale prices.