Soarin' Expansion and new Soarin' Around the World film

D

DHoy

Active Member
Fast pass is designed for a perfect world. It is SOP for 60% of capacity to be allotted to FP. When I say perfect if you have an attraction with capacity of 1000. 600 of those spot are allotted in five minute increments. So theoretically 50 people should arrive every five minutes and the remaining 33.3 spots move from the standby line. However fast pass works in a real world where several factors can change the planned ratio:
1. Capacity decreasing due to numerous reasons. Loading delays. Unloading delays. Guest caused ride stops. Automatic ride stops etc
2. FP guest arriving in uneven patters. Say the first 5 minutes instead of 50 ppl arriving only 25 do. So you fill by taking standby guests and let's saying this continues for 30 minutes. Then the back half of the hour everyone is doubled up so now you have 75 FP guests arriving every five minutes. So now the ride is taking 75/8 FP/standby
3. Then the unplanned chaos: Rider switch / DAS / 15 minute late grace / 5 minute early grace / exceptions for dining runovers / automatic downtime recovery for which ppl use a FP for a down attraction at a recovery one / re-admittance tickets for when guests are ecvacuated. These multiple scenarios are unplanned and not built into the perfect world of fast pass.

Ultimately fast pass is designed for a perfect park experience. However the parks operate in a real world which cause unplanned ebb and flow in the queueing experience. It is a great design in theory but In operation it's an untamed beast where the actions of guests inside the park create the environment which they experience.
 
boufa

boufa

Well-Known Member
DHoy said:
Fast pass is designed for a perfect world. It is SOP for 60% of capacity to be allotted to FP. When I say perfect if you have an attraction with capacity of 1000. 600 of those spot are allotted in five minute increments. So theoretically 50 people should arrive every five minutes and the remaining 33.3 spots move from the standby line. However fast pass works in a real world where several factors can change the planned ratio:
1. Capacity decreasing due to numerous reasons. Loading delays. Unloading delays. Guest caused ride stops. Automatic ride stops etc
2. FP guest arriving in uneven patters. Say the first 5 minutes instead of 50 ppl arriving only 25 do. So you fill by taking standby guests and let's saying this continues for 30 minutes. Then the back half of the hour everyone is doubled up so now you have 75 FP guests arriving every five minutes. So now the ride is taking 75/8 FP/standby
3. Then the unplanned chaos: Rider switch / DAS / 15 minute late grace / 5 minute early grace / exceptions for dining runovers / automatic downtime recovery for which ppl use a FP for a down attraction at a recovery one / re-admittance tickets for when guests are ecvacuated. These multiple scenarios are unplanned and not built into the perfect world of fast pass.

Ultimately fast pass is designed for a perfect park experience. However the parks operate in a real world which cause unplanned ebb and flow in the queueing experience. It is a great design in theory but In operation it's an untamed beast where the actions of guests inside the park create the environment which they experience.
Click to expand...


I think the FP+ system tends to get over analysed, and then you can end up with all sorts of scenarios. The simple answer to your thoughts are the sheer numbers of FP+ and standby guests, over time cancel out most of the situations you have described. When you have 1000's of little variables, all of them could be happening at once, some slow downs to the line and some speed ups to the line occur randomly, and over a typical day, they null out to zero. Ride break downs are one area where chaos can and does occur.

A very informative article as to the flow of crowds and their effect on wait times, including the FP+ system is from touringplans. Love them or hate them, it is a good analysis, and explanation of how adding a single person to a line effects the overall wait time. http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/29/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-disneys-hollywood-studios/

This article is based on DHS but the concepts travel to other parks as well. Interestingly that feel that 80% of ride capacity is given to FP+ on average, across all rides.

To take this back to Soarin', yes, the increased capacity will reduce wait times. But the problem is that we all assume that FP+ people don't count. "Sure there will be more capacity, but that will be taken up by FP+" In a lot of cases those will be people who would have been in standby before the new capacity was added, so there is a reduction to stand by. Plus the additional capacity DOES mean that everything else being equal that 20% of that new capacity is for standby.

In the case of TSMM, since there will be 33% more capacity, there should be 33% more fastpasses distributed, and a 33% reduction in wait times for standby. This is because it is a straight up increase in capacity, nothing special. However, in the case of Soarin, you have what can be argued is a brand new attraction based on a very popular attraction. So while you will be increasing capacity, you will also be increasing its desirability. People who have not ridden it in years, will go out of there way to ride now. People who would be willing to skip it due to the lines, in the past, will now be willing to wait for it. (Touring plans measures that as a balking time. The amount of time an average guest will tolerate waiting in line. ie Posted at 20 minutes, sure I'll get in line, posted at 40 min, nope, I'll pass) The balking time for Soarin is certain to go up when the new film opens. I wouldn't do standby for this film at 40 min or longer... but for the new film I might be willing to try 70-90 min standby. That adds to the lines and makes the standby even longer.

The short answer... the lines at Soarin will be longer, at least for the first few years...

...and then again, maybe not. If you take the reverse of the touringplans blog post about closed rides and their effects on other rides, you have to also look at the addition of the TWO new Frozen attractions. Will they pull people out of line for soarin', if they keep the tiers, will they pull people out of the FP lines also... forcing the standby line to grow even longer, but making FP availability easier. Will more family type people come to epcot, adding to the number of people who want to ride Soarin'. I doubt anyone will know those specifics until the attractions actually open.
 
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RSoxNo1

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
Fastpass usage typically makes up 2/3rds of the line. That ratio should not change when the new theater is added meaning that standby and Fastpass capacity are both increasing by 50%
 
Fantasmicguy

Fantasmicguy

Well-Known Member
TJ Vazquez said:
So how is January - June 2016 going to look as far as fast passes go for Epcot?
Something like this?

Group A
IllumiNations: Reflections of Earth
Test Track
Living with the Land
Mission: SPACE Green
Mission: SPACE Orange

Group B
Video "Shorts" (EO replacement)
Journey Into Imagination With Figment
Spaceship Earth
The Seas with Nemo & Friends
Turtle Talk with Crush
Epcot Character Spot
Click to expand...
Wow so Mission Space or Test Track. That would definitely be a hard one for me. But Mission's line is normally shorter than Test Track. I wonder if Soarin' being closed will have a impact on Mission's line. Was it a problem back when Test Track closed? But from how it looks I would use my Tier 1 on Test Track and Tier 2 on Spaceship Earth and The Seas.
Edit: On second thought there is so little to do in Epcot I should have enough time to wait in line for both. Especially if I have all day tickets.
 
Cmdr_Crimson

Cmdr_Crimson

Well-Known Member
TJ Vazquez said:
So how is January - June 2016 going to look as far as fast passes go for Epcot?
Something like this?

Group A
IllumiNations: Reflections of Earth
Test Track
Living with the Land
Mission: SPACE Green
Mission: SPACE Orange

Group B
Video "Shorts" (EO replacement)
Journey Into Imagination With Figment
Spaceship Earth
The Seas with Nemo & Friends
Turtle Talk with Crush
Epcot Character Spot
Click to expand...

Okay...So it looks like how Epcot was before 2005? What's so big about it?
 
B

Brian Swan

Well-Known Member
bjm72385 said:
I don't think so. If they were going to build a fourth they would have built it now. That said, I still don't understand why they didn't just build a second building just like the first and have 4 theaters when finished. By the looks of the new aerial photos, I think there would have been enough room. Probably a very tight squeeze and maybe re-routing that service road a bit, but nothing Disney hasn't done before.

Also to add to the conversation above about FP+, I'm curious to see what they do once Frozen is open and Soarin reopens. I think it's obvious it will get moved to Tier 1, so will they have three options in Tier 1 and you get to choose one or two of them, or do they maybe move Test Track to Tier 2 like they did with ToT and TSMM.
Click to expand...
I cannot imagine Frozen NOT being a tier 1. It would not surprise me if the A&E M&G was ALSO a tier 1.
 
mm52200

mm52200

Well-Known Member
I would love to see the tiers removed at DHS and Epcot. What's the logic that DAK doesn't have Tiers with it's 10 FP attractions but DHS has 13 and Epcot normally has between 9 and 11 and they have tiers.
 
Marlins1

Marlins1

Well-Known Member
I think AK has more attractions where FP is useful. Kali and Primeval are average rides but a FastPass does help a lot with those. It is also good for Dinosaur at times along with the obvious ones. The non-premier attractions at Epcot and DHS rarely have lengthy standby waits.
 
RSoxNo1

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
I think it's at least a possibility that once Soarin' re-opens that tiers are eliminated an Epcot.

Of course they could drop it to one advanced booking per guest per day now and eliminate tiers as well...
 

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