Screamscape - Monorail Expansion Rumor

[Master Yoda]

Really?

Las Vegas Monorail :
Construction began 2001
Total cost just over $600 million for 3.9 miles
$166 million per mile

Sao Paulo Monorail:
Construction began 2012
Total cost $1.4 Billion for 14.9 miles
$93 million per mile

Yes really. Those total costs also include labor, right of way purchases and a myriad of other expenses not related to building materials price increases. Show me an itemized list of expenses from each project and if the Las Vegas project paid more for the exact same grade steel and concrete than they did in Sao Paulo we will talk. And if I am not mistaken the Sao Paulo is not even finished yet.

 

[s8film40]

Yes really. Those total costs also include labor, right of way purchases and a myriad of other expenses not related to building materials price increases. Show me an itemized list of expenses from each project and if the Las Vegas project paid more for the exact same grade steel and concrete than they did in Sao Paulo we will talk. And if I am not mistaken the Sao Paulo is not even finished yet.

So basically material costs are only a small factor in the total cost of a system. While there are no itemized lists of costs these numbers seem to show that even if there is a "sharp rise" in material costs it hasn't affected the overall cost of a monorail system. Yes this system isn't finished yet but Bombardier has lots of experience building transit systems and I'm sure they've taken current material costs into account. The point is the old numbers are still valid, however there is no way to know exactly how much a system would costs based on other systems. It's likely a WDW system would cost even less since there would be no land purchases associated with the construction. It should also be noted that the Brazil system is using larger beams and pylons and a WDW system would have lower material costs compared to this.

 

[Master Yoda]

So basically material costs are only a small factor in the total cost of a system. While there are no itemized lists of costs these numbers seem to show that even if there is a "sharp rise" in material costs it hasn't affected the overall cost of a monorail system. Yes this system isn't finished yet but Bombardier has lots of experience building transit systems and I'm sure they've taken current material costs into account. The point is the old numbers are still valid, however there is no way to know exactly how much a system would costs based on other systems. It's likely a WDW system would cost even less since there would be no land purchases associated with the construction. It should also be noted that the Brazil system is using larger beams and pylons and a WDW system would have lower material costs compared to this.

It depends on on the project. Land prices vary so widely that it is impossible to do a "from the hip" comparison. In most construction projects where the land is already owned the cost of materials typically starts at about 50% of the cost of the project. That % can go up or down based on the cost of materials and the kind of labor involved. To claim that it is a non factor is flat out incorrect in more ways than I can count. While the material cost might be less for the structure needed in WDW let us also not forget that the cost of labor in the US is on the order of 340% greater than in Brazil. Right now the cost of the LV monorail, adjusted for labor and material increases minus right of way purchases it the closest thing we will ever have to an estimate of what a monorail will cost per mile in WDW. Using the budget for the the Brazil monorail is like comparing the cost of a mass produced economy car in Korea to that of a hand build Lamborghini in Italy.

 

[Tom]

So basically material costs are only a small factor in the total cost of a system. While there are no itemized lists of costs these numbers seem to show that even if there is a "sharp rise" in material costs it hasn't affected the overall cost of a monorail system. Yes this system isn't finished yet but Bombardier has lots of experience building transit systems and I'm sure they've taken current material costs into account. The point is the old numbers are still valid, however there is no way to know exactly how much a system would costs based on other systems. It's likely a WDW system would cost even less since there would be no land purchases associated with the construction. It should also be noted that the Brazil system is using larger beams and pylons and a WDW system would have lower material costs compared to this.

You have to take into account a LOT of things. How many stations are along the Vegas and Brazil lines? When WDW expanded to Epcot, they only added one station, but a lot of track, spreading out the cost of the station over lots of miles.

And figure on $1M/train (I'm guessing). How many trains to Vegas and Brazil have? Those go into the total bill.

And do they have lots of switches? Perhaps faster switches that allow trains to take spurlines with guests on board?

I bet they have more elaborate block light systems too, since they're municipal systems. Disney has a private, closed-loop system with a pretty archaic block system. To go mainstream, you're going to have a Central Command somewhere, similar to that of a subway system, with cameras, monitors, dispatch systems, safety interlocks (more than just a CM with a garage door opener on his belt).

WDW's system would cost less than any of those large systems for hundreds of reasons. But, that still doesn't make it affordable or responsible. You have to literally look at the pay-off. How many years of bus and fuel reduction would it take to pay for a property-wide monorail expansion? I'm not going to run numbers, but none of us will be alive when those to lines cross on the graph.

 

[s8film40]

It depends on on the project. Land prices vary so widely that it is impossible to do a "from the hip" comparison. In most construction projects where the land is already owned the cost of materials typically starts at about 50% of the cost of the project. That % can go up or down based on the cost of materials and the kind of labor involved. To claim that it is a non factor is flat out incorrect in more ways than I can count. While the material cost might be less for the structure needed in WDW let us also not forget that the cost of labor in the US is on the order of 340% greater than in Brazil. Right now the cost of the LV monorail, adjusted for labor and material increases minus right of way purchases it the closest thing we will ever have to an estimate of what a monorail will cost per mile in WDW. Using the budget for the the Brazil monorail is like comparing the cost of a mass produced economy car in Korea to that of a hand build Lamborghini in Italy.

Yes my point is you said we couldn't use the numbers from the Vegas system because they were too outdated. So when presented with new numbers you now say we have to use the old numbers and adjust them instead of comparing them to a system under construction now.

The reality is materials costs just aren't that huge of a deal as you make it out to be when compared to all the other costs of construction land, labor, etc. Either way we try to estimate it I think the land cost savings will compensate for the increase in materials when compared to Vegas and the increase in labor when compared to Brazil.

I think it's somewhat safe to say that a scaled back system compared to the WDW 2000 plan would probably be somewhere around the same cost as the expansive system planned at that time, or roughly the same budget as the Next Gen project.

 

[Master Yoda]

Yes my point is you said we couldn't use the numbers from the Vegas system because they were too outdated. So when presented with new numbers you now say we have to use the old numbers and adjust them instead of comparing them to a system under construction now.

The reality is materials costs just aren't that huge of a deal as you make it out to be when compared to all the other costs of construction land, labor, etc. Either way we try to estimate it I think the land cost savings will compensate for the increase in materials when compared to Vegas and the increase in labor when compared to Brazil.

I think it's somewhat safe to say that a scaled back system compared to the WDW 2000 plan would probably be somewhere around the same cost as the expansive system planned at that time, or roughly the same budget as the Next Gen project.

So it will cost the same, but they can only build half of it.

 

[s8film40]

So it will cost the same, but they can only build half of it.

Probably, assuming costs have risen. My point is they likely can still build a very comprehensive system with the budget allotted before. The old plan really was a little too much and unnecessary. So it really can't be said that this is an out of reach dream for WDW since the same budget currently covering interactive queues would probably cover a very decent monorail expansion.

 

[Engenie]

Do you remember what they used in the monorail beams?

I do not know what has been used in the beams for wdw, but run of the mill post-tensioned concrete beams usually use 5-7ksi concrete, sometimes as high as 8ksi, but id say the average is about 5-7, and would be surprised if the monorail beams went any higher than 10ksi, considering how slender they are.

 

[Camera1950s]

New here 2 cents worth

Just a quick reply in hopes TDO will read it. The WDW bus fleet is a huge plus for WDW as they are reliable, flexable, cost effective, and can go anywhere a car can. The fact that they burn CNG is a big plus. I would make a point of that. The bus is so practicle that they are everywhere on the earth. That is the problem with a WDW bus only improvement. If TDO really wants to draw more guests to WDW then upgrade one of the minor parks to major status (possibly AK) and not at the cost of current projects. The upgrade would include a monorail stop. I see the major parks as ones that have monorail access and minor ones as one that do not.

Bottom line: Bus = practical, Water = fun, monorail = cool

The monorail says the park has arived. :king:

 

[JayCricket]

The fact that they burn CNG is a big plus. I would make a point of that.

WDW buses do not run on CNG.

That Screamscape story has too many inaccuracies regarding WDW Transportation to mention.

 

[majortom1981]

WDW buses do not run on CNG.

That Screamscape story has too many inaccuracies regarding WDW Transportation to mention.

Its been shown on these very boards that atleast a big chunk of on property buses run on CNG.

This site http://www.ngvi.com/about.html

even states walt disney world is a customer.

 

[Timon]

Sao Paulo Details
This ain't no theme park ride!

Line 2 (Green) - Bombardier model: INNOVIA 300, 378 cars (54-7 car trains!), Train Max (Nuts) Capacity: 1,000 passengers (143 per car), 48,000 pphpd or 500,000 users/day (when finished),Train Normal (Sane) Capacity: 623 Passengers (89 per car)(16 seated per car)(7 car train), Walk-thru design(!), 17 Stations, 24 km/14.9, Automated (no drivers), Design Headway: 75 seconds, Operation Headway: 90 seconds

COMPARISON: Las Vegas Bombardier INNOVIA 200, 7 Stations, 3.9 mile/6.3 km – 15 minutes end to end, 36 cars (9-4 Car Trains Automated, 224 Passengers (56 per car), 3200 pphpd (passengers per hr per direction)

Official Line 2 Video (Portuguese)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PD6K8Iem18&feature=related

INNOVIA 300

Nice big section

Connecting the beams

Cab End - Oops no driver!

Monorail Shop

Station Construction

A Beam before installation

 

[Bolna]

Sao Paulo Details
This ain't no theme park ride!

Line 2 (Green) - Bombardier model: INNOVIA 300, 378 cars (54-7 car trains!), Train Max (Nuts) Capacity: 1,000 passengers (143 per car), 48,000 pphpd or 500,000 users/day (when finished),Train Normal (Sane) Capacity: 623 Passengers (89 per car)(16 seated per car)(7 car train), Walk-thru design(!), 17 Stations, 24 km/14.9, Automated (no drivers), Design Headway: 75 seconds, Operation Headway: 90 seconds

COMPARISON: Las Vegas Bombardier INNOVIA 200, 7 Stations, 3.9 mile/6.3 km – 15 minutes end to end, 36 cars (9-4 Car Trains Automated, 224 Passengers (56 per car), 3200 pphpd (passengers per hr per direction)

Thanks for all the pictures as well! However, the one thing I find interesting is something you bolded above: walk through design!! For me those tiny compartments the WDW monorail has have always been one of their biggest flaws to me. This makes loading the monorail so much more difficult!! I am getting used to more and more public transport trains (underground, light railways etc.) here in Europe have the walk through design and I think it has made those trains much easier to use!

 

[Timon]

walk through design!! For me those tiny compartments the WDW monorail has have always been one of their biggest flaws to me.

100% true. While the current WDW monorails are too small to have walk-thru in future versions (drive equipment gets in the way) they should get rid of the center seats by splitting them in half and putting 5 seats under the center windows on each side. This way people could move around the cabin like on the Vegas trains. Many times I've seen people climb over the seats because there was more open space in the other half of the car. Maybe during a major body change.

One thought: If the Vegas monorail is shut down or removed (a possibility) WDW could buy their 36 cars = (6 new trains & one tractor) and have new bodies made since they are the same size cars. The WDW monorail probably will have to be overhauled in the next ten years with new or re-bodied trains and technology improvements. While I love our Monorail Pilots the system would be much more efficient with Automated trains.

 

[GrumpyFan]

Something else that looks interesting about the Sao Paula design is it appears that they are building the rails with an emergency walkway included. I may be wrong, but in the video it shows a fence-like structure on the rail which I interpret as emergency egress. I can see where this would be beneficial in case of a train evac situation. I don't think there have been too many evacs on WDWs system in its history, but the one I know of wasn't pretty and had people climbing out the top of the trains at night, then having to get on the rail and wait for rescue. I'm guessing that any future monorail expansions may have to include an emergency walkway due to ADA requirements.

 

[s8film40]

Something else that looks interesting about the Sao Paula design is it appears that they are building the rails with an emergency walkway included. I may be wrong, but in the video it shows a fence-like structure on the rail which I interpret as emergency egress. I can see where this would be beneficial in case of a train evac situation. I don't think there have been too many evacs on WDWs system in its history, but the one I know of wasn't pretty and had people climbing out the top of the trains at night, then having to get on the rail and wait for rescue. I'm guessing that any future monorail expansions may have to include an emergency walkway due to ADA requirements.

Yeah the emergency walkways are a good idea and can be built on top of existing pylons and hung from the bottom of single beams. This is exactly what Vegas did with their existing beam way that was identical to WDW's.

 

[kaifers]

The busses are plane awful. We are Season Pass holders always stay on property and always drive to what every park we are going to. I refuse to take the busses, at all.

 

[mp2bill]

With gas prices, is it really more expensive than running bus transportation? :shrug:

Good point. It would make WDW as a whole more magical if they had more alternative forms of transportation such as the monorail or a property wide locomotive.

 

[mp2bill]

Threads like this make me laugh because this whole situation would have been solved 40 years ago had they stuck with the original plan for the Florida project. The monorail is old news and transportation on the Disney property is abysmal compared to the elaborate plans laid forth a half century ago. Bottom line is that accountants ruin everything and people rarely gain anything from "playing it safe".

Very astute point.

 

[Tom]

The busses are plane awful. We are Season Pass holders always stay on property and always drive to what every park we are going to. I refuse to take the busses, at all.

Wow. Thank you for this.