Screamscape - Monorail Expansion Rumor

[GrumpyFan]

I like the PRT concept as it seems very efficient and economical, however, I'm not sure if the small 4-person pods are big enough to handle the mass of people needing to be moved daily at WDW. Perhaps a better solution would be GRT (Group Rapid Transit), which is essentially an automated bus system on a dedicated roadway/track. Bombardier has these, but calls them APM (Automated People Mover) and they are in place in numerous places like major airports around the world. They're not as elegant in my opinion, but they seem like a reasonable solution at what would seem to be a more reasonable cost, although I can't find the data to prove that.

 

[coolbeans14]

i actually recently went on the pod system at Heathrow, and I was impressed. It allowed parking to be further away, yet keeps it quite close.

I'm of the opinion that these could work at Disney. imagine this situation:

How about one huge parking lot? multi storey, it saves on costs, as you need fewer attendants than several lots at the parks. You then have trams inside to take guests to a new transportation hub, where they then have the choice of these pods, which could take you to the parks. you also have buses, which take you to the resorts.

as the pod track would be many miles long, you can have loads of these pods going round at the same time. you can also have the large, 10 person capacity pods going, which means you have a high capacity on demand transport system, that avoids the staffing costs involved with the buses.

by only having resort to hub buses, you save on the number of buses needed, and number of staff needed to work it. It works perfectly. you keep the boat service from boardwalk area to epcot and the studios going, they don't need to use the hub for half of their travel, and it keeps it from getting congested.

it would be expensive to set up, but i imagine would save money in the future, and creates a reliable service.

 

[flavious27]

Indeed. A quick look at The Monorail Society's page on "How Much Does Monorail Cost?" http://www.monorails.org/tmspages/HowMuch.html shows that Las Vegas paid $88 million a mile for their Bombardier monorail system (the same company that built WDW's monorail). Now I'm willing to concede that it probably wouldn't cost as much given Bombardier had to work around Las Vegas's urban sprawl and WDW's monorail would have a good amount more of open space around it to build. Still, very costly. And given how we know WDW LOOOOOVES to spend money </sarcasm>, I won't hold my breath.

Or that it cost Dubai over $100 million a mile for its monorail with two stations and a daily capacity of 40k.

If the figures for expanding the monorail would have worked out, they would have built it with mgm in the 80's.

 

[bgraham34]

Or that it cost Dubai over $100 million a mile for its monorail with two stations and a daily capacity of 40k.

If the figures for expanding the monorail would have worked out, they would have built it with mgm in the 80's.

But once again that is built in a city with an existing infrastructure in place.

 

[wdw71fan]

People seem to forget that a major monorail expansion was 'green lit' in 2000.. The designs and studies were already done, and the project had a full budget.. Stakes were placed into the ground, some minor prep work was done... And then a handful of morons from Afghanistan decided to plow 4 planes into buildings (and a field) on the east coast and subsequently totally disrupt the US tourist industry for years....


Blame them, Disney was already on the move with the expansion.

So arguing about whether they "would or won't" seems like a moot point.. They WOULD have, but unforeseeable things happened that disrupted the plans... The REAL question is, will they move forward with those plans now that visitor numbers have finally rebounded to "WDW is busting at the seems during the busy months" times?

Only time will tell :animwink:

 

[flynnibus]

People seem to forget that a major monorail expansion was 'green lit' in 2000.. The designs and studies were already done, and the project had a full budget.. Stakes were placed into the ground, some minor prep work was done...

Based on what? Why wouldn't we know the full planned expansion map and plan then if this were so 'done' and started construction as you say?

 

[lazyboy97o]

I've heard the exact same story, but replace September 11 with the purchase of ABC Family, the economy, and a few other external circumstances.

 

[s8film40]

Based on what? Why wouldn't we know the full planned expansion map and plan then if this were so 'done' and started construction as you say?

Disney doesn't make their plans public. There are a few of the maps/plans floating around still. I saw one of them, I think the plan was a little too ambitious. There were monorails all over the place and light rail going to Celebration.I think ultimately a more simplified approach would be better.

 

[thehowiet]

Or that it cost Dubai over $100 million a mile for its monorail with two stations and a daily capacity of 40k.

If the figures for expanding the monorail would have worked out, they would have built it with mgm in the 80's.

I honestly still believe Disney could do this MUCH cheaper than Vegas or Dubai. Let me preface the following logic and observations by saying this is just my opinion and I have absolutely zero evidence to support my beliefs...

I'm pretty familiar with the Vegas system. That system was built in some extremely tight construction corridors (middle of major roads, going between close buildings, etc.) and also uses multiple massive straddle bents to cross major roads that are really wide. They also needed easements for the land.

Disney owns the land they would be building on. Also, theoretically the location should provide easier access for construction equipment since it isn't really an urban setting like Las Vegas, causing fewer impediments to the construction. From what I understand the cost of the land, as well as the location (urban, rural, etc.) have a significant impact to the costs of building.

Another observation I had about the Vegas system concerns the stations. The stations on the Vegas system are massive compared to what is currently at WDW. The stations had to be fairly expensive in comparison. I have to assume this also contributed to the high cost per mile.

s8film40, was the plan you saw similar to the map you created and posted previously? If not, I'd love to see the plan you speak of if that's at all possible. It sounds interesting.

 

[FQL]

I honestly still believe Disney could do this MUCH cheaper than Vegas or Dubai. Let me preface the following logic and observations by saying this is just my opinion and I have absolutely zero evidence to support my beliefs...

I'm pretty familiar with the Vegas system. That system was built in some extremely tight construction corridors (middle of major roads, going between close buildings, etc.) and also uses multiple massive straddle bents to cross major roads that are really wide. They also needed easements for the land.

Disney owns the land they would be building on. Also, theoretically the location should provide easier access for construction equipment since it isn't really an urban setting like Las Vegas, causing fewer impediments to the construction. From what I understand the cost of the land, as well as the location (urban, rural, etc.) have a significant impact to the costs of building.

Another observation I had about the Vegas system concerns the stations. The stations on the Vegas system are massive compared to what is currently at WDW. The stations had to be fairly expensive in comparison. I have to assume this also contributed to the high cost per mile.

s8film40, was the plan you saw similar to the map you created and posted previously? If not, I'd love to see the plan you speak of if that's at all possible. It sounds interesting.

I agree mostly with your assessment of lower costs due to Disney owning the land, but what about the added costs that Disney will have due to the extra underground support required when building in marshy areas? Support beams built in the desert vs in the swamp require vastly different foundation work.

 

[BalooChicago]

Support beams built in the desert vs in the swamp require vastly different foundation work.

Not really. Both require deep foundations. Once you go deep it doesn't matter so much.

 

[flavious27]

I honestly still believe Disney could do this MUCH cheaper than Vegas or Dubai. Let me preface the following logic and observations by saying this is just my opinion and I have absolutely zero evidence to support my beliefs...

I'm pretty familiar with the Vegas system. That system was built in some extremely tight construction corridors (middle of major roads, going between close buildings, etc.) and also uses multiple massive straddle bents to cross major roads that are really wide. They also needed easements for the land.

Disney owns the land they would be building on. Also, theoretically the location should provide easier access for construction equipment since it isn't really an urban setting like Las Vegas, causing fewer impediments to the construction. From what I understand the cost of the land, as well as the location (urban, rural, etc.) have a significant impact to the costs of building.

Another observation I had about the Vegas system concerns the stations. The stations on the Vegas system are massive compared to what is currently at WDW. The stations had to be fairly expensive in comparison. I have to assume this also contributed to the high cost per mile.

s8film40, was the plan you saw similar to the map you created and posted previously? If not, I'd love to see the plan you speak of if that's at all possible. It sounds interesting.

Disney is still going to have to follow existing infrastructure, it needs to get access to the whole line. There are going to be buildings in the way that they are going to require that the lines add more distance.

 

[s8film40]

I honestly still believe Disney could do this MUCH cheaper than Vegas or Dubai. Let me preface the following logic and observations by saying this is just my opinion and I have absolutely zero evidence to support my beliefs...

I'm pretty familiar with the Vegas system. That system was built in some extremely tight construction corridors (middle of major roads, going between close buildings, etc.) and also uses multiple massive straddle bents to cross major roads that are really wide. They also needed easements for the land.

Disney owns the land they would be building on. Also, theoretically the location should provide easier access for construction equipment since it isn't really an urban setting like Las Vegas, causing fewer impediments to the construction. From what I understand the cost of the land, as well as the location (urban, rural, etc.) have a significant impact to the costs of building.

Another observation I had about the Vegas system concerns the stations. The stations on the Vegas system are massive compared to what is currently at WDW. The stations had to be fairly expensive in comparison. I have to assume this also contributed to the high cost per mile.

s8film40, was the plan you saw similar to the map you created and posted previously? If not, I'd love to see the plan you speak of if that's at all possible. It sounds interesting.

The Las Vegas stations are large because they were built with expansion in mind. The four car trains have the ability to be coupled together and operate as eight car trains. The stations are built to accommodate eight car trains even though they only use four car trains.

I don't unfortunately remember the specifics of the monorail expansion plan. It was far more expansive than what I had posted. I only had a short time to look at it and I saw that the "proposed monorail" seemed to be all over the map.

 

[Master Yoda]

The Las Vegas stations are large because they were built with expansion in mind. The four car trains have the ability to be coupled together and operate as eight car trains. The stations are built to accommodate eight car trains even though they only use four car trains.

I don't unfortunately remember the specifics of the monorail expansion plan. It was far more expansive than what I had posted. I only had a short time to look at it and I saw that the "proposed monorail" seemed to be all over the map.

There is also the issue the price of construction materials has risen sharply over the last decade. Steel prices alone have risen by 330% since 2001 making all of the old numbers grossly inaccurate.

 

[Tom]

There is also the issue the price of construction materials has risen sharply over the last decade. Steel prices alone have risen by 330% since 2001 making all of the old numbers grossly inaccurate.

Right...rebar ain't what it used to be (in terms of cost).

And anything made with oil. This includes all plastics and anything with the root "poly" in it.

Not to mention shipping and delivery for every material....from the moment it's a raw material until it's delivered to a jobsite. Lots of gas being used to move it around the world.

Lumber has also increased several times...and since monorail beams are formed up with LOTS of lumber, that adds to it.

 

[Master Yoda]

Right...rebar ain't what it used to be (in terms of cost).

And anything made with oil. This includes all plastics and anything with the root "poly" in it.

Not to mention shipping and delivery for every material....from the moment it's a raw material until it's delivered to a jobsite. Lots of gas being used to move it around the world.

Lumber has also increased several times...and since monorail beams are formed up with LOTS of lumber, that adds to it.

Concrete prices have gone nuts as well and that is for mass produced, run of the mill, 2000 psi concrete used in residential construction. I can not imagine what the prices look like for a custom mix.

 

[GrumpyFan]

Something that seems to cross my mind whenever this discussion comes up is whether they would expand the current monorail shop behind MK or build a new one in a more central location, like maybe closer to Epcot.

 

[Tom]

Concrete prices have gone nuts as well and that is for mass produced, run of the mill, 2000 psi concrete used in residential construction. I can not imagine what the prices look like for a custom mix.

We just poured 35,000 SF of it at our Lazy River. All 4000psi. Runs between $90-100/cy.

 

[Master Yoda]

We just poured 35,000 SF of it at our Lazy River. All 4000psi. Runs between $90-100/cy.

Do you remember what they used in the monorail beams?

 

[s8film40]

There is also the issue the price of construction materials has risen sharply over the last decade. Steel prices alone have risen by 330% since 2001 making all of the old numbers grossly inaccurate.

Really?

Las Vegas Monorail :
Construction began 2001
Total cost just over $600 million for 3.9 miles
$166 million per mile

Sao Paulo Monorail:
Construction began 2012
Total cost $1.4 Billion for 14.9 miles
$93 million per mile