Screamscape - Monorail Expansion Rumor

[thehowiet]

You are seeing them from a romantic perspective that 999 out of 1000 people simply do not have. People do not go to WDW solely because of the monorail. I doubt it even cracks the top 20 of why people go to WDW over US, Six Flags, etc. If WDW builds a $100 million dollar attraction, guests will beat down the gates to get to it. If they spent $500 million on monorail expansion a handful of monorail enthusiasts might come to see it once.

If people really cared as little about the WDW monorail as you claim, then why are they trying to shoehorn a DVC in at every monorail resort they can, making it more points to stay at those resorts? The logo for BLT has a monorail in it, so they obviously realize that it does matter to people if they are selling it that way.

How about instead of just trying copy the past - we innovate and move forward?

I definitely agree with you there, but there's probably even less of a chance of that happening than expanding the monorail. I would absolutely be open to something new and innovative. I just think something needs to happen eventually.

 

[s8film40]

You act as though WDW is a crumbling, deserted ghost town and monorail expansion will pull them from the jaws of Hades himself. Profits are up, attendance is up and they are still the number one attended theme park in the world by a comfortable margin. All of this without any monorail expansion.

The harsh reality is the monorails are a bus on an elevate track. They are transportation with a dash of novelty. You are seeing them from a romantic perspective that 999 out of 1000 people simply do not have. People do not go to WDW solely because of the monorail. I doubt it even cracks the top 20 of why people go to WDW over US, Six Flags, etc. If WDW builds a $100 million dollar attraction, guests will beat down the gates to get to it. If they spent $500 million on monorail expansion a handful of monorail enthusiasts might come to see it once.

Disney attendance is declining, no it's not that bad YET. For the first time in it's history Disney began combining its domestic theme park in it's annual reports to hide these numbers. Meanwhile Universal is way up. More importantly for the first time ever the main draw to the area was Universal and Disney was secondary to that for a large number of people. Do I think transportation alone will change this absolutely not, but it needs to be part of a bigger reinventing of the WDW resort. They need new appealing things and most importantly a renewed sense of a resort feel so that people will want to stay and spend their time there rather than just looking at it as 4 of the 8 parks in the area.

I personally go to the parks often and I can say I find myself going less and less to Disney. If I go to Universal I can get to any one destination anywhere in the resort in 15-20 minutes. I often find myself saying no I don't want to deal with the hassle of going to Disney.

 

[Master Yoda]

If people really cared as little about the WDW monorail as you claim, then why are they trying to shoehorn a DVC in at every monorail resort they can, making it more points to stay at those resorts? The logo for BLT has a monorail in it, so they obviously realize that it does matter to people if they are selling it that way.

Guests like the easy access to MK. The fact that the monorail is that access has little to do with it. The Epcot resorts are just as popular for the same reason and the main form of transportation to Epcot and DHS are boats and walking.

 

[s8film40]

How about instead of just trying copy the past - we innovate and move forward?

I agree with this, however I think the monorail technology has moved forward quite a bit. If Disney can find something better great. Sticking with and expanding busses to me is moving backwards. So I guess we can both agree that Disney has a problem we just have different opinions as to what the solution is.

 

[RunnerEd]

I agree...

I think most people would like to see the 600-900+ million it would take for a spur line to be put into development of rides and parks. So I can't blame the passionate debating. But the current transportation is a pain in the keyster. If I have any option to take something other than the bus, I take it...

Has nothing to do with the environment, or the impact on wetlands or any of that...It has to do with the fact that the end of the night the experience should be a positive one. So fighting to keep my balance in a standing room bus while the driver goes for the record for most guests transported in a night, is not my idea of a good time. In the 30 years i've gone to disney I have never had a "bus" type of experience on a monorail (or a boat for that matter).

They could do so much more to make the bus experience more than a cattle car. Video monitors showing a that day's "highlights" at WDW would do wonders to make the trip more enjoyable. That's not even trying hard; imagine what they could do if they tried to make the bus experience "magical."

 

[thehowiet]

Guests like the easy access to MK. The fact that the monorail is that access has little to do with it. The Epcot resorts are just as popular for the same reason and the main form of transportation to Epcot and DHS are boats and walking.

I have to disagree. Based on that logic, they could rip out the monorail tomorrow, use efficient boat and bus transportation for those resorts, and the guests would be totally fine with it. I really don't think that would be the case at all.

There's a reason they use the monorail in so much promotional material. I believe that the fact that the monorail is that access has a lot to do with it, especially from speaking with other guests staying at monorail resorts when I stay there. Numerous times I've spoken to people staying at the monorail resorts about the EPCOT area resorts. I've gotten the same answer lots of times. "We stay here because we like the monorail."

 

[Master Yoda]

I have to disagree. Based on that logic, they could rip out the monorail tomorrow, use efficient boat and bus transportation for those resorts, and the guests would be totally fine with it. I really don't think that would be the case at all.

There's a reason they use the monorail in so much promotional material. I believe that the fact that the monorail is that access has a lot to do with it, especially from speaking with other guests staying at monorail resorts when I stay there. Numerous times I've spoken to people staying at the monorail resorts about the EPCOT area resorts. I've gotten the same answer lots of times. "We stay here because we like the monorail."

Of course they could not do that. The monorail has a novelty to it that has become synonymous with Disney. Had Disney not built the monorail and run a steam train around the 7 seas lagoon the monorail resorts would be just as popular.

 

[jt04]

Not if it is free. As far as the typically "It will lead to more work somewhere else" idea, ask any graphic designer how well those deals work out.

Actually it is not free, you are misunderstanding the concept. Think of how Disney is now allowing an outside company to run the golf courses. They could do the same with transportation.

Disney would include the transportation costs in a resort stay but could market it as "free transportation access" as a perk included in that resort stay. Then Disney could pass some of these fees directly to the company running the transportation system. Also, this hypothetical company could collect parking fees directly from the customer for those using their own cars. This would include those who choose to rent cars and park at their resorts as they could be required to pay a fee to do so. Disney could eliminate substantial management and operational costs and pass these on as part of the same deal. Seems to me this could save Disney massive overhead costs and the company operating these systems could be better positioned to run such an operation more efficiently by intially investing in and modernizing the network.

Win-win.

 

[orky8]

Master Yoda, I know you probably have this data, so let's get some actual numbers out there. What is the average nightly rate for a room at GF, Poly, Contemporary, BW, BC, and YC? Also, for fun, what is WL? That has easy access to Magic Kingdom (quick bus or boat ride). If the monorail means nothing and has no monetary value, then you should report back that the average rate at WL is the same as GL, Poly, and Contemporary.

 

[flynnibus]

I have to disagree. Based on that logic, they could rip out the monorail tomorrow, use efficient boat and bus transportation for those resorts, and the guests would be totally fine with it. I really don't think that would be the case at all.

Yet you see all those people bypassing the monorail every day.... for a bus.

Why? Because a direct route is more important to them then the 'thrill' of riding the monorail.

People keep overlooking that here... people are choosing efficiency over image, style, etc. For these people - the monorail is not enough of a draw to take what would be an inferior route for them. Now apply that same experience to the larger transportation system.. and you will see unless the monorail IMPROVES the efficiency of the route.. people will not prefer the monorail to other alternatives when all they are looking to do is get somewhere.

 

[Master Yoda]

Master Yoda, I know you probably have this data, so let's get some actual numbers out there. What is the average nightly rate for a room at GF, Poly, Contemporary, BW, BC, and YC? Also, for fun, what is WL? That has easy access to Magic Kingdom (quick bus or boat ride). If the monorail means nothing and has no monetary value, then you should report back that the average rate at WL is the same as GL, Poly, and Contemporary.

Nice try but the rooms are smaller and the amenities are different at WL. You are also forgetting the three most important things in real estate are also applicable to resorts as well.

 

[s8film40]

I have to disagree. Based on that logic, they could rip out the monorail tomorrow, use efficient boat and bus transportation for those resorts, and the guests would be totally fine with it. I really don't think that would be the case at all.

There's a reason they use the monorail in so much promotional material. I believe that the fact that the monorail is that access has a lot to do with it, especially from speaking with other guests staying at monorail resorts when I stay there. Numerous times I've spoken to people staying at the monorail resorts about the EPCOT area resorts. I've gotten the same answer lots of times. "We stay here because we like the monorail."

Yep, just ask a GF, Polynesian or Contemporary front desk cast member who worked while the monorail was recently closed. I'm sure they can tell you whether the guests actually stay there specifically for the monorail.

 

[orky8]

Baseless? Why don't you start out with a credible proposal. One that outlines the problems, estimates the cost, estimates the gains, and then tries to justify how the gains outweigh the losses.

I, obviuosly, don't have the required data, so I will have to guesstimate much of this, but here is my best guess.

Here are my assumptions (which may be very off):
17 million people visit Disney World each year.
There are 1500 rooms at the Epcot resorts.
Monorails beams cost $10 million/mile.
Monorail stations cost $5 million
Monorail trains cost $20 million each.

My plan (for purposes here) combine express loop with Epcot loop and extend to DHS and AK, moving the Epcot stop to the International Gateway.

Monorail Cost:
10 new miles of track = $100 million
20 new monorail trains = $400 million
4 new monorail stations (redoing TTC) = $20 million

My guess (which is all it really is) is monorail expansion will cost $520 million.

New or imrpoved revenue (my assumptions):
$50/night to each Epcot resort room rate = $50*1500*365=$27.375 million/year
$2/person increase in ticket (added charge to park hopper and increase in usage) = $34 million/year
$5/person increased revenue through additional visit to Disney park through park hopping (i.e, going to Dinner at Epcot from AK instead of home) = $85 million/year.

Increased revenue of $146.375 million per year, to offset an investment of only $520 million. Hell, lets double the monorail expansion cost to a cool $1 billion. This still seems like a smart move to me. That doesn't include reducing bus service, lowered maintenance for new monorails, and less labor for no monorail pilots.

 

[orky8]

Nice try but the rooms are smaller and the amenities are different at WL. You are also forgetting the three most important things in real estate are also applicable to resorts as well.

No, actually, the three most important things in real estate are exactly my point. Monorail, monorail, monorail. Oh, you thought location? What difference is there between GF and WL besides, umm, oh yeah, the monorail. WL is closer walk and bus ride. And I don't think the average guest has a clue about the room size between WL and GF. But, you still haven't given any numbers which I feel like you probably have handy. Let's try to get some data out there.

 

[Master Yoda]

I, obviuosly, don't have the required data, so I will have to guesstimate much of this, but here is my best guess.

Here are my assumptions (which may be very off):
17 million people visit Disney World each year.
There are 1500 rooms at the Epcot resorts.
Monorails beams cost $10 million/mile.
Monorail stations cost $5 million
Monorail trains cost $20 million each.

My plan (for purposes here) combine express loop with Epcot loop and extend to DHS and AK, moving the Epcot stop to the International Gateway.

Monorail Cost:
10 new miles of track = $100 million
20 new monorail trains = $400 million
4 new monorail stations (redoing TTC) = $20 million

My guess (which is all it really is) is monorail expansion will cost $520 million.

New or imrpoved revenue (my assumptions):
$50/night to each Epcot resort room rate = $50*1500*365=$27.375 million/year
$2/person increase in ticket (added charge to park hopper and increase in usage) = $34 million/year
$5/person increased revenue through additional visit to Disney park through park hopping (i.e, going to Dinner at Epcot from AK instead of home) = $85 million/year.

Increased revenue of $146.375 million per year, to offset an investment of only $520 million. Hell, lets double the monorail expansion cost to a cool $1 billion. This still seems like a smart move to me. That doesn't include reducing bus service, lowered maintenance for new monorails, and less labor for no monorail pilots.

Based on numbers that are even ten years old, your construction costs are off by more than a factor of 10.

http://www.lightrailnow.org/myths/m_monorail001.htm

 

[flynnibus]

I, obviuosly, don't have the required data, so I will have to guesstimate much of this, but here is my best guess.

Yet you skipped the most important part...

"One that outlines the problems"

You are proposing a solution before agreeing what needs to be solved nor looking at if the proposed solution actually fixes the problem.

This shows everyone is assuming the monorail is the answer.. before even evaluating the choices.

 

[Gregoryp73]

Yet you see all those people bypassing the monorail every day.... for a bus.

Why? Because a direct route is more important to them then the 'thrill' of riding the monorail.

People keep overlooking that here... people are choosing efficiency over image, style, etc. For these people - the monorail is not enough of a draw to take what would be an inferior route for them. Now apply that same experience to the larger transportation system.. and you will see unless the monorail IMPROVES the efficiency of the route.. people will not prefer the monorail to other alternatives when all they are looking to do is get somewhere.

Sorry but, I don't buy that a bus stopping at 4 resorts on it's way to the park is anymore efficient or timely (or direct). I think the only reason I personally think people would pass up the monorail for a bus is if the line was backed up on the monorail and absent on the bus.

 

[flynnibus]

Sorry but, I don't buy that a bus stopping at 4 resorts on it's way to the park is anymore efficient or timely (or direct). I think the only reason I personally think people would pass up the monorail for a bus is if the line was backed up on the monorail and absent on the bus.

You don't have to buy it - because what you said is not how the buses operate for one. And two, reality is, guests board the buses at MK instead of riding the monorail to the TTC to ride buses. Because they prefer the direct, more efficient route of the bus, over riding the monorail, to just transfer again.

 

[s8film40]

Based on numbers that are even ten years old, your construction costs are off by more than a factor of 10.

http://www.lightrailnow.org/myths/m_monorail001.htm

I don't think there is a worse source for monorail information than a LIGHT RAIL site, unless your trying to pretend monorails are more expensive than they really are.

Why don't we look at a real life example. How about the new monorail built on WDW technology by the company that built WDW monorails actually under construction as we speak in todays money.

So lets see: Sau Paulo Brazil

Total cost: 1.4 billion dollars
Total Miles: 14.9
Number of stations: 17
Number of trains: 54 seven car trains (378 total cars)

Let's forget about the fact that Disney already owns the land, they obviously don't need an expansion this large so I think about 1 billion would probably do, or to put it in Disney terms about what they set aside for next gen. So I don't think it's an unrealistic pipe dream for Disney to choose to expand the system they would just rather put that kind of money towards games in queues. This is my issue and where I think they made the wrong decision.

 

[Master Yoda]

No, actually, the three most important things in real estate are exactly my point. Monorail, monorail, monorail. Oh, you thought location? What difference is there between GF and WL besides, umm, oh yeah, the monorail. WL is closer walk and bus ride. And I don't think the average guest has a clue about the room size between WL and GF. But, you still haven't given any numbers which I feel like you probably have handy. Let's try to get some data out there.

Because I know what you are trying to do. You know that WL is less expensive that GF and that that reason is solely because of the monorail. While the monorail is one of the factors it is far from the only factor. The GF is the flagship resort of WDW where as WL is at the bottom end of the deluxe category. It is like comparing a Cadillac to a Bentley. When the 4 Season opens we will compare room rates and we shall see how much it not being connected to the monorail drives the price down.