Screamscape - Monorail Expansion Rumor

[thehowiet]

We mostly agree. But when EPCOT was built, was putting the monorail line from TTC to Epcot a fiscally responsible move? Perhaps they thought no one would go there without the monorail (and, at the time there weren't hotels all across property), but even back then, I think the answer would have been no. A bus line would have been fiscally responsible. The making of Snow White was incredibly NOT fiscally responsible. Disneyland was NOT fiscally responsible. Yes, i know, pixie dust, and unicorns. But the point remains, when companies just look at fiscally responsible and ignore quality of product, they will ultimately lose their customer. WDW is clearly not at that point yet, but that seems to be the direction.

The big 3 automakers were unstopable, until they weren't. Yahoo! was the search engine to use, until it wasn't. Macs were just for fanboys and geeks... Disney World and Disneyland were untouchable in terms of product quality, but they aren't anymore.

I don't disagree with what you are saying. You are dead-on with how current management thinks. But the monorail was never about fiscal responsibility and until Disney stops trying to calculate whether a monorail expansion would be cheaper than a bus expansion, and starts trying to calculate whether a monorail expansion would increase the value of its product, there will be no expansion. And that is unfortunate, because I believe the value is there (but of course, as you said, I at best have only 50% of the information).

Well said. I agree with you 100%. Expanding the monorail to EPCOT definitely wasn't the most economical way of transporting guests, but it was the Disney way of transporting guests. It's all part of the overall product, each and every element of the resort.

I'm definitely partial to monorails, but I'm not saying that an expansion is the definite solution. However, something needs to be done with the resort transportation system besides adding buses, and something that is unique and part of the overall "show."

 

[Master Yoda]

We mostly agree. But when EPCOT was built, was putting the monorail line from TTC to Epcot a fiscally responsible move? Perhaps they thought no one would go there without the monorail (and, at the time there weren't hotels all across property), but even back then, I think the answer would have been no. A bus line would have been fiscally responsible. The making of Snow White was incredibly NOT fiscally responsible. Disneyland was NOT fiscally responsible. Yes, i know, pixie dust, and unicorns. But the point remains, when companies just look at fiscally responsible and ignore quality of product, they will ultimately lose their customer. WDW is clearly not at that point yet, but that seems to be the direction.

The big 3 automakers were unstopable, until they weren't. Yahoo! was the search engine to use, until it wasn't. Macs were just for fanboys and geeks... Disney World and Disneyland were untouchable in terms of product quality, but they aren't anymore.

I don't disagree with what you are saying. You are dead-on with how current management thinks. But the monorail was never about fiscal responsibility and until Disney stops trying to calculate whether a monorail expansion would be cheaper than a bus expansion, and starts trying to calculate whether a monorail expansion would increase the value of its product, there will be no expansion. And that is unfortunate, because I believe the value is there (but of course, as you said, I at best have only 50% of the information).

I think the line to Epcot was somewhat necessary. It was a park about the future, monorails are futuristic, you get the picture. People expected it to be there. Let us also not forget the Epcot nearly bankrupted Disney.

The comparison to Snow White and DL are a bit apples to oranges. Snow White was a financial risk with the chance of a big reward. Unless Disney starts charging for the monorail it has no real chance of doing anything but eating up money. It is transportation and a necessary evil, not an investment with a possible ROI.

The monorail at DL is more attraction that can be transportation. The expansion was also a fraction of what WDW would have to to. Cool factor is worth a few million. It begins to loose its luster when it gets to hundreds of millions.

The monorail is about transportation and must be compared to other options. If we were only talking about 25% more to go from buses to monorails they would be building track right now. The monorails biggest problem is we are talking about a price tag that is orders of magnitude over the bus option.

 

[flynnibus]

We mostly agree. But when EPCOT was built, was putting the monorail line from TTC to Epcot a fiscally responsible move? Perhaps they thought no one would go there without the monorail (and, at the time there weren't hotels all across property), but even back then, I think the answer would have been no. A bus line would have been fiscally responsible.

This is an apples and oranges comparison...

The transportation needs when EPCOT was built do not resemble anything like the transportation needs of today. There is a huge difference between putting in ONE line that serves virtually all destinations with a single path.. vs putting in 4x,5x,6x the number of lines and increasing the overall system complexity by an order of magnitude.

This is yet another 'dreamers' justification that isn't based in reality at all.

The making of Snow White was incredibly NOT fiscally responsible. Disneyland was NOT fiscally responsible

These two are completely off-base. These were unproven RISKS - not sunk costs the company would likely never recover that also would take a lifetime of upkeep which is not about RISK, but about practicality to sustain.

 

[s8film40]

I think the line to Epcot was somewhat necessary. It was a park about the future, monorails are futuristic, you get the picture. People expected it to be there. Let us also not forget the Epcot nearly bankrupted Disney.

The comparison to Snow White and DL are a bit apples to oranges. Snow White was a financial risk with the chance of a big reward. Unless Disney starts charging for the monorail it has no real chance of doing anything but eating up money. It is transportation and a necessary evil, not an investment with a possible ROI.

The monorail at DL is more attraction that can be transportation. The expansion was also a fraction of what WDW would have to to. Cool factor is worth a few million. It begins to loose its luster when it gets to hundreds of millions.

The monorail is about transportation and must be compared to other options. If we were only talking about 25% more to go from buses to monorails they would be building track right now. The monorails biggest problem is we are talking about a price tag that is orders of magnitude over the bus option.

The monorail is not free and there is potential for ROI, it's built into the cost of everything. If Disney were to use your logic they would never build an original complex attraction, they would just buy what ever carnival ride is cheapest and meets their capacity needs. After all Disney doesn't make any money on individual attraction there's no ROI. The point is the monorail is part of the overall resort experience, that experience is currently broken. People don't want to go on vacations to ride on crowded buses. At this point it's a necessary evil to your WDW vacation. Most people just think well I want to go to the park I have to do this. It's no wonder MK and Epcot get the higher attendance. I hear people all the time leave the MK trying to decide what other park to go to and I can tell you from first hand experience you would be surprised the impact monorail has to this decision. Obviously many of us want the system to be expanded and while it's true this is partly just because we like the monorails and want to see more of them, it is also the fact that it is quicker and easier to move around on them. The issue Disney has is that they set this precedent and didn't uphold it. While monorails are great for MK and Epcot it makes the transportation elsewhere seem worse than it would if monorails were never built in the first place.

 

[s8film40]

These two are completely off-base. These were unproven RISKS - not sunk costs the company would likely never recover that also would take a lifetime of upkeep which is not about RISK, but about practicality to sustain.

I think these are perfect comparisons and there are plenty of others throughout Disney's history. I'm sure the analyst of the day told Disney that Disneyland would be "sunk costs", they probably calculated out how much an amusement park can make in the best case scenario and I am certain whatever that was Disney was spending way more than that.

The same is true here it is very hard to see how this can create a ROI, however the monorail is an attraction in itself as well as transportation. Once they were able to start advertising that the monorail takes you to all the major destinations in WDW it could create a huge increase in attendance an increase in hotel room occupancy and perhaps enable future expansion of parks and hotels.

 

[thehowiet]

It's no wonder MK and Epcot get the higher attendance. I hear people all the time leave the MK trying to decide what other park to go to and I can tell you from first hand experience you would be surprised the impact monorail has to this decision.

This is definitely a good point. My parents always stay at one of the monorail resorts and hardly ever go to DHS or AK. Their reason: the buses. I myself am somewhat guilty of the same thing. I also generally stay at a monorail resort and would definitely go to DHS or AK more often if there were better transportation. I honestly do think attendance for DHS and MK would increase if you could just jump on a monorail from one of the other parks to get there.

 

[Master Yoda]

The monorail is not free and there is potential for ROI, it's built into the cost of everything. If Disney were to use your logic they would never build an original complex attraction, they would just buy what ever carnival ride is cheapest and meets their capacity needs. After all Disney doesn't make any money on individual attraction there's no ROI. The point is the monorail is part of the overall resort experience, that experience is currently broken. People don't want to go on vacations to ride on crowded buses. At this point it's a necessary evil to your WDW vacation. Most people just think well I want to go to the park I have to do this. It's no wonder MK and Epcot get the higher attendance. I hear people all the time leave the MK trying to decide what other park to go to and I can tell you from first hand experience you would be surprised the impact monorail has to this decision. Obviously many of us want the system to be expanded and while it's true this is partly just because we like the monorails and want to see more of them, it is also the fact that it is quicker and easier to move around on them. The issue Disney has is that they set this precedent and didn't uphold it. While monorails are great for MK and Epcot it makes the transportation elsewhere seem worse than it would if monorails were never built in the first place.

If you can show Disney how to make their investment back on monorail expansion, heck if you could even show them how to even come close to breaking even, they would build it in a second. The simple fact is you can't. Free transportation is a money hole, pure and simple. You do it because you have to. I talk to quite a few people everyday about traveling to Disney and not a single one of them has pulled back or even hesitated on a Disney trip because of lack of monorail access.

 

[erasure fan1]

The monorail is not free and there is potential for ROI, it's built into the cost of everything. If Disney were to use your logic they would never build an original complex attraction, they would just buy what ever carnival ride is cheapest and meets their capacity needs. After all Disney doesn't make any money on individual attraction there's no ROI. The point is the monorail is part of the overall resort experience, that experience is currently broken. People don't want to go on vacations to ride on crowded buses.

I agree. If they did expand the monorail (I dont care either way) would they not be able to charge more for the hotel rooms at the resorts they expand to? That in my eyes is ROI. Obviously charging extra for hotel rooms wont pay off the project but it does add to the overall experience of Disney. Is monorail expansion the right choice? Not sure. Personally I would rather see that then the next gen stuff.

But the point remains, when companies just look at fiscally responsible and ignore quality of product, they will ultimately lose their customer. WDW is clearly not at that point yet, but that seems to be the direction.

The big 3 automakers were unstopable, until they weren't. Yahoo! was the search engine to use, until it wasn't. Macs were just for fanboys and geeks... Disney World and Disneyland were untouchable in terms of product quality, but they aren't anymore.

You see it over and over again, go ask Sony how resting on your laurels has worked out for them. Disney still has a huge lead over the competition but history has proven that it can change in a heartbeat. I dont think many people expect or want a mediocre experience from Disney.

 

[s8film40]

If you can show Disney how to make their investment back on monorail expansion, heck if you could even show them how to even come close to breaking even, they would build it in a second. The simple fact is you can't. Free transportation is a money hole, pure and simple. You do it because you have to. I talk to quite a few people everyday about traveling to Disney and not a single one of them has pulled back or even hesitated on a Disney trip because of lack of monorail access.

Part of business is making decisions and taking risks, no worthy new endeavor ever had a clear path to ROI. I do think that you share the same perspective as Disney, there's no need to spend the money if there isn't a clear ROI. However I think this is because Disney is in a state of just sustaining WDW, their not interested in doing anything new and risky with the project they just want to keep it at a point where it sits and makes money. I think this is a bad decision however. Once you have a successful product it's true you can leave it as is and continue to profit from it for a very long time. Eventually other things seem more appealing and the business slowly declines.

I will agree that I don't think anyone makes a decision solely on monorails, but it adds to a perspective that the resort has become stagnant. Sure there are new attractions and hotels ever so often, but no major additions. Now if Disney coupled a monorail expansion with a major park expansion this could breath new life into the resort. I don't find it surprising that you don't hear people changing their minds due to no monorails. Buses create a very negative experience for many and a lack of monorails create a very stagnant experience when you put these two together it makes it easy for someone to get to that tipping point and they do I see them all the time. The problem is you or Disney simply will never ever hear from the guest who frustratingly rode the crowded bus 20 times while visiting and on the last ride back to the hotel on the last night said, that's it were never coming back.

 

[flynnibus]

I think this sums up the pro arguements...

 

[s8film40]

I think this sums up the pro arguements...

Not really, I think most of us understand the reality, we just don't buy the excuses. My question is why are so many people against monorail expansion, do you really not want the monorail expanded? Or is it simply that you don't want to admit that Disney can make mistakes and that WDW isn't as great as it used to be. I honestly can understand both of these perspective but at some point you have to realize that Disney's current transportation system does not add to the positive resort experience but rather just takes away from it.

 

[Master Yoda]

Part of business is making decisions and taking risks, no worthy new endeavor ever had a clear path to ROI. I do think that you share the same perspective as Disney, there's no need to spend the money if there isn't a clear ROI. However I think this is because Disney is in a state of just sustaining WDW, their not interested in doing anything new and risky with the project they just want to keep it at a point where it sits and makes money. I think this is a bad decision however. Once you have a successful product it's true you can leave it as is and continue to profit from it for a very long time. Eventually other things seem more appealing and the business slowly declines.

I will agree that I don't think anyone makes a decision solely on monorails, but it adds to a perspective that the resort has become stagnant. Sure there are new attractions and hotels ever so often, but no major additions. Now if Disney coupled a monorail expansion with a major park expansion this could breath new life into the resort. I don't find it surprising that you don't hear people changing their minds due to no monorails. Buses create a very negative experience for many and a lack of monorails create a very stagnant experience when you put these two together it makes it easy for someone to get to that tipping point and they do I see them all the time. The problem is you or Disney simply will never ever hear from the guest who frustratingly rode the crowded bus 20 times while visiting and on the last ride back to the hotel on the last night said, that's it were never coming back.

You act as though WDW is a crumbling, deserted ghost town and monorail expansion will pull them from the jaws of Hades himself. Profits are up, attendance is up and they are still the number one attended theme park in the world by a comfortable margin. All of this without any monorail expansion.

The harsh reality is the monorails are a bus on an elevate track. They are transportation with a dash of novelty. You are seeing them from a romantic perspective that 999 out of 1000 people simply do not have. People do not go to WDW solely because of the monorail. I doubt it even cracks the top 20 of why people go to WDW over US, Six Flags, etc. If WDW builds a $100 million dollar attraction, guests will beat down the gates to get to it. If they spent $500 million on monorail expansion a handful of monorail enthusiasts might come to see it once.

 

[Master Yoda]

Not really, I think most of us understand the reality, we just don't buy the excuses. My question is why are so many people against monorail expansion, do you really not want the monorail expanded? Or is it simply that you don't want to admit that Disney can make mistakes and that WDW isn't as great as it used to be. I honestly can understand both of these perspective but at some point you have to realize that Disney's current transportation system does not add to the positive resort experience but rather just takes away from it.

I do not think there is a single person that would not like to see the monorail expanded. All we question is the cost vs benefit. Until someone can come up with a accurate financial plan that makes monorails an even close to reasonable expense then the idea of expansion is a romantic pipe dream.

 

[orky8]

I think this sums up the pro arguements...

No. It does not. You ignore everything we say and call us dreamers because we can't prove monorail expansion improves the bottom line. You said the line to Epcot is apples to organges in expanding that same line to DHS and AK. Let's just talk about that. Not a major expansion to everywhere, but just connecting the 4 parks. How is that not apples to apples? Either the line to Epcot makes financial sense or it doesn't. The answer is, it probably doesn't. And if we had the management we have to today when Epcot was built, I guarantee the monorail line to Epcot would never have been built. You want to boost attendance to AK and DHS and park hopping to those parks, you expand the monorail to go to those parks. Plain and simple.

Because that expansion would pretty much run through the Epcot resorts, you put a station stop there, and you have three new monorail resorts.

You're baseless attacks on us as crazy is unnecessary and doesn't further the discussion. Master Yoda says this won't happen because its not profitable. I AGREE WITH HIM. But I think the issue is Disney is taking the wrong view of profit and risk. Investing in your product, I belive, in this instance would net Disney a profitable return in additional value to the hotel charges, park hoppers, and money spent on property, as well as helping to keep people from exploring the idea of staying off property.

And frankly, unless and until the monorail or something besides busses goes to DTD, there is very little point in Disney investing in that area.

 

[Master Yoda]

No. It does not. You ignore everything we say and call us dreamers because we can't prove monorail expansion improves the bottom line. You said the line to Epcot is apples to organges in expanding that same line to DHS and AK. Let's just talk about that. Not a major expansion to everywhere, but just connecting the 4 parks. How is that not apples to apples? Either the line to Epcot makes financial sense or it doesn't. The answer is, it probably doesn't. And if we had the management we have to today when Epcot was built, I guarantee the monorail line to Epcot would never have been built. You want to boost attendance to AK and DHS and park hopping to those parks, you expand the monorail to go to those parks. Plain and simple.

Because that expansion would pretty much run through the Epcot resorts, you put a station stop there, and you have three new monorail resorts.

You're baseless attacks on us as crazy is unnecessary and doesn't further the discussion. Master Yoda says this won't happen because its not profitable. I AGREE WITH HIM. But I think the issue is Disney is taking the wrong view of profit and risk. Investing in your product, I belive, in this instance would net Disney a profitable return in additional value to the hotel charges, park hoppers, and money spent on property, as well as helping to keep people from exploring the idea of staying off property.

And frankly, unless and until the monorail or something besides busses goes to DTD, there is very little point in Disney investing in that area.

Simple solution, prove it. Every set of numbers I have seen on monorail construction shows a veritable money black hole. If you want us to buy your snake oil all you need to do is prove it works.

 

[orky8]

I do not think there is a single person that would not like to see the monorail expanded. All we question is the cost vs benefit. Until someone can come up with a accurate financial plan that makes monorails an even close to reasonable expense then the idea of expansion is a romantic pipe dream.

Obviusly, we don't have the data to do that. Heck, we have NO idea how much it costs to build a mile of monorail track. You probably have good numbers on the hotel occpancy rates and things like that. But here is my numbers.

Add $2 to each park hopper. Add $75/night to the rate to stay at BW, BC, and YC. Add an additional day of park attendance by guests now going to AK or returning there just to ride the safari, or everest one last time before hopping somewhere else. I can't quantify these numbers, but my bigger issue, is I don't think Disney is taking these bigger picture things into account. They are saying, why would people go back to AK if the monorail goes there when the bus already goes there? They are saying you can already park hop, what difference does it make. And they are missing out on opportunities, I believe.

For myself, I go to AK once per visit at most. If the monorail went there, I would go there more. That's just me, but that's the way it is, and I don't think I am alone. I do not go to DTD because its not worth the hassle of taking the busses. If the monorail went there, I would go several times during a weeklong trip.

 

[flynnibus]

Not really, I think most of us understand the reality, we just don't buy the excuses. My question is why are so many people against monorail expansion, do you really not want the monorail expanded? Or is it simply that you don't want to admit that Disney can make mistakes and that WDW isn't as great as it used to be

I want a better transportation system - I don't think fixed monorail is it.

I think the idea that the monorail is the answer is people not looking at TODAY's problems and the problems of tomorrow and instead insisting that the solution from 40 years ago is automatically the answer without actually looking at if it actually solves anything.

I think people are taking slivers and ignoring the rest of reality to help make themselves feel good about the possibility of it happening.

I think the idea of 'expanding the monorail because its what they started with' is a completely uncreative, cop-out solution.

If WDW didn't already have a monorail - and you had these same transportation desires - Do you really think you'd propose a monorail? Or defend it as 'unpractical, but still desirable' as much as you do now?

How about instead of just trying copy the past - we innovate and move forward?

 

[Gregoryp73]

Not really, I think most of us understand the reality, we just don't buy the excuses. My question is why are so many people against monorail expansion, do you really not want the monorail expanded? Or is it simply that you don't want to admit that Disney can make mistakes and that WDW isn't as great as it used to be. I honestly can understand both of these perspective but at some point you have to realize that Disney's current transportation system does not add to the positive resort experience but rather just takes away from it.

I agree...

I think most people would like to see the 600-900+ million it would take for a spur line to be put into development of rides and parks. So I can't blame the passionate debating. But the current transportation is a pain in the keyster. If I have any option to take something other than the bus, I take it...

Has nothing to do with the environment, or the impact on wetlands or any of that...It has to do with the fact that the end of the night the experience should be a positive one. So fighting to keep my balance in a standing room bus while the driver goes for the record for most guests transported in a night, is not my idea of a good time. In the 30 years i've gone to disney I have never had a "bus" type of experience on a monorail (or a boat for that matter).

 

[Master Yoda]

Obviusly, we don't have the data to do that. Heck, we have NO idea how much it costs to build a mile of monorail track. You probably have good numbers on the hotel occpancy rates and things like that. But here is my numbers.

Add $2 to each park hopper. Add $75/night to the rate to stay at BW, BC, and YC. Add an additional day of park attendance by guests now going to AK or returning there just to ride the safari, or everest one last time before hopping somewhere else. I can't quantify these numbers, but my bigger issue, is I don't think Disney is taking these bigger picture things into account. They are saying, why would people go back to AK if the monorail goes there when the bus already goes there? They are saying you can already park hop, what difference does it make. And they are missing out on opportunities, I believe.

For myself, I go to AK once per visit at most. If the monorail went there, I would go there more. That's just me, but that's the way it is, and I don't think I am alone. I do not go to DTD because its not worth the hassle of taking the busses. If the monorail went there, I would go several times during a weeklong trip.

This is exactly why I do not see monorail expansion happening. There seems to be a wealth of examples of why monorails are not a great option and few if any showing the contrary. Myself and many others are simply siding with the evidence. If that evidence changes, I'll jump on board the monorail bandwagon in a second.

 

[flynnibus]

No. It does not. You ignore everything we say and call us dreamers because we can't prove monorail expansion improves the bottom line. You said the line to Epcot is apples to organges in expanding that same line to DHS and AK. Let's just talk about that. Not a major expansion to everywhere, but just connecting the 4 parks. How is that not apples to apples?

Because the problems and needs the EPCOT line was built to answer.. are not the same needs and problems of the resort today.

Just because it made sense to do something 30+ years ago - doesn't make that the right answer to do today and for the future. Especially when the problems are different.

Park hopping isn't where people are disgusted with the transportation system...

You're baseless attacks on us as crazy is unnecessary and doesn't further the discussion

Baseless? Why don't you start out with a credible proposal. One that outlines the problems, estimates the cost, estimates the gains, and then tries to justify how the gains outweigh the losses.

Reality is - most of the 'problems' people are solving with their ideas here aren't even the problems people are complaining about in the parks. So you're not even addressing the issues that need addressing.

People are proposing trophy systems just to say they exist.. as opposed to actually improving the majority of guest satisfaction problems.